Focusing On What Matters
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Focusing On What Matters

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Trends and forecasts of interest to non profit organizations and governments.

Trends and forecasts of interest to non profit organizations and governments.

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Focusing On What Matters Focusing On What Matters Presentation Transcript

  • BIG CHANGE TRENDSFocusing in on what matters
    www.markholmgren.com
    July 2010
  • How will your nonprofitsustain relevancein a dramaticallychanging society?
  • KEY TRENDS
    What’s inside this presentation:
    Demographics
    Community
    Income & Work
    Non-Profit Sector
    Philanthropy
    - Donations & Volunteerism
    Generations
    Technology
    - Internet, Social Media
  • D E M O G R A P H I C S
  • POPULATION
    Between 2006 and 2031
    Seniors grow by 110%
    0-24 decrease 15%
    Everyone else, up about 5%
    ...how about a bar graph or two?
  • A PICTURE IS WORTH…
    Seniors Population Growth 2006-2031in Canada
    FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS
  • A PICTURE IS WORTH…
    Children/Youth Population Growth 2006-2031 IN CANADA
    FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS
  • IMMIGRATION
    In 2003, one in ten immigrants spoke English or French as their mother tongue, compared to almost one in three in 1980.
    In Canada, visible minorities will grow as much as 113% (2001 to 2017).
    The rest of the population will grow at a rate between .7% and 6.7%
  • IMMIGRATION
    In 2017, roughly one person in five (between 19% and 23%) will be a member of a visible minority in Canada.
    One in seven Albertans and nearly one in six Edmontonians are a visible minority.
    Chinese comprise one quarter of the sub-population.
  • IMMIGRATION
    In 2006, a total of 187,775 immigrants lived Edmonton.
    60% represent visible minorities.
    Over the next 20 years, Stats Canada projections indicate Alberta will be the destination for 350,000 to 400,000 immigrants.
  • FAMILY STRUCTURE
    In 2001, nearly 60% of adults in their early twenties live in their parents’ home, up 16% from 20 years ago.
    54.6 % of Edmonton`s adult population is married or common law.29.7% are single
    11% are divorced or separated
    5% are widowed
    In Alberta for every 2.2 marriages there is one divorce.
  • SUMMARY - DEMOGRAPHICS
    …Huge Growth in Seniors
    # of children/youth declining
    …Seniors out number children/youth
    …Immigration drives growth
    Increased Visible Diversity
    …Family Make-up
    IMPLICATIONS
    Health Spending Up
    Social Services for Seniors Up
    Will education spending go down?
    Impact on Tax base?
    Increased Language ChallengesCulture a Government Priority?
    Impact on Volunteerism & Donations?
  • C O M M U N I T Y
  • EDUCATION
    Four years after graduating three of five high school graduates have not enrolled in post secondary education; after six years, the rate is two of five.
    In Edmonton, 29% of students do not graduate within three years of entering high school.
  • COMMUNITY
    People who do not complete high school are more likely to
    • be unemployed or employed in low-paying positions
    • commit crimes, receive social assistance, and to have poor health
    • AND less likely to vote and participate in civic life.
  • COMMUNITY
    Two of every five Edmonton residents feel unsafe in their community. Nearly one in three Albertans report having been a victim of a crime in the past year.
  • COMMUNITY CRIME RATE IN EDMONTON
  • COMMUNITY
    According to the Alberta Government, unless better ways are developed to address homelessness, it’s estimated that the Alberta government will incur costs of $6.65 billion over 10 years.
    In 2008, a total of 3079 individuals identified as homeless. Nearly 10% were under the age of 18 (Edmonton)
  • COMMUNITY ADDICTIONS IN EDMONTON
    There is an increase in the use and abuse of drugs and alcohol. For example, there are an estimated 4,000 injection drug users in Edmonton.
    AADAC sees more than 3200 adult Edmonton clients annually seeking counselling for cocaine addiction.
  • COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON
    There are an estimated 1000 prostitutes in Edmonton, of which 500 are street
    prostitutes.
    It is also estimated that there are approximately 10,000 “johns” in Edmonton.
  • COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON
    Prostitute demographics
    61% Aboriginal
    33% Caucasian
    6% other ethnicity.
    3% under the age of 18
    49% between 18 and 30
    48% over the age of 30.
    Over 50% do not have stable housing.
  • COMMUNITY SUICIDE IN EDMONTON
    Suicide rate in Edmonton is 14.2 per 100,000 population.
    Approximately 142 per year (2009)
    In 1997, there were 2,118 recorded suicide attempts--or 2.5 per 1,000 (Edmonton-area region).
    That rate today: over 2,500
  • SUMMARY - COMMUNITY
    Challenges include:
    …Highschool graduation
    …Prostitution (esp. Aborginal)
    …Addictions
    …Homelessness
    …Suicide
    …Feeling Safe
    Considering demographic
    trends, will there be funding for
    high school education and for other
    serious community issues?
    IMPLICATIONS
  • Income & work
  • INCOME
    28% of Alberta Men
    40% of Alberta Women
    40% of Lone Parent Families
    L I V E I N P O V E R T Y
  • INCOME EDMONTON
    In 2006, the median income for Edmontonian was $29,195 an the low income rate was 10.6%
    Just over 73,000 Edmontonians live in poverty.
    In 2006, 34.1% of lone parent families were below the low income cut off, up from 27.1% in 2004
  • INCOME EDMONTON
    One in six children in our community live in poverty.
    One-third of immigrants since 2004 are considered to be low income.
    Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population.
    In Alberta...Lone-parent families are more likely to live in poverty than couples with children (40% compared with 9%).
  • DEBT IN CANADA
    Canadian Debt is rising at double the rate of growth of personal disposable income (e.g. Take home pay)
    32% over 10 years
    $752 BILLION
  • DEBT IN CANADA
    Six in ten young Canadians between the ages of 18 and 29 are in debt.
    Of those in debt, 36% owe between $10,000 and $19,999 and 21% carry a debt of $20,000 and up.
  • WORK FORCE PARTICIPATION
    Labour
    Force Up
    In 20 years the participation rate in the Alberta workforce will fall from 72% to 63%.
    Participation
    Down
  • SENIOR TO WORKER RATIO IN CANADA
  • WORK CANADA
    Past 50 years: Canada’s workforce grew by 200%
    Next 50 years: 11 percent
  • WORK EDMONTON
    Recent immigrants experience higher unemployment rates (7.6% in 2006 compared with 4.6% of the total Edmonton population).
    Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population.
  • SUMMARY – INCOME AND WORK
    Challenges include:
    …Increased Poverty?…Smaller workforce as tax base
    …Diverse workforce
    …High personal debt
    …Higher unemployment for visible minorities
    Tax increases?
    Competition for jobs/increased remuneration.
    Impact on volunteerism and philanthropy?
    IMPLICATIONS
  • NON-PROFIT SECTOR
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
    175,000 employees
    19,000 non profit organizations
    54% of Non Profit organizations
    do not have paid staff
    175,000 employees
    19,000 non profit organizations
    8,740
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
    NOW CONSIDER...
    Hospitals, Universities and Colleges make up 1% of Alberta organizations but employ 40% of all paid staff.
    175,000 employees
    8,740 non profit organizations
    105,000
    8,550
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
    BUT ALSO...
    64% of staff are employed by 5% of non-profits.
    Excluding Hospitals, Universities, Colleges
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
    67,200 staff are employed by 856 non profits.
    23,100 staff are employed by 7,000 non profits
    23% of the
    revenue split
    between those above
    and the 10,300 that
    have no staff.
    77% of the
    revenue.
  • NON PROFITSECTORALBERTA
    TSN
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA
    189 Albertans per Nonprofit Group
    728 Albertans per
    Sports Group1,894 Albertans per
    Arts & Culture Group2,105 Albertans per
    Social Service Group
    2,380 Albertans
    per Gas Station
    331 Albertans
    per Liquor Store
    600 Albertans
    per VLT
    498 Albertans
    per Lawyer
  • NON PROFIT SECTOR – EDMONTON
    There about 2,300 charities in Edmonton.
    200-230 are social service.
    There are another 3700 to
    4200 non profits
  • SUMMARY – NON PROFIT SECTOR
    Challenges include:
    …Funding a complex sector
    …Focusing on “priority” agencies
    …Perceptions of duplication
    …Lack of understanding about the subsectors.
    Will other trends result in fewer government and philanthropic dollars for charities?
    IMPLICATIONS
  • P H I L A N T H R O P Y
  • PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON
    25% of Edmontonians claim donations on their income tax return.
    The average gift is increasing:
    $1950 in 2007.
  • PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    The median value of charitable donations increased from $170 in 1997 to $250 in 2007.
    Religious organizations receive 46% of donated dollars followed by health organizations (15%) and social services organizations (10%).
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    The top 25% of donors account for 82% of the total value of donations.
    The top 10% (who contributed $1,002 or more annually) account for 62% of the total value.
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    Donors who give the most are:
    …older,
    …have higher household incomes,
    …have more formal education,
    …married or widowed
    …and to be religiously active.
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    Planful donors tend to give repeatedly over time give significantly more than others
    On average immigrants give more
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    3% of Canadian businesses claimed charitable donations totalling $1 billion in 2003.
    Half came from two industries: Finance and Insurance (32.1%) and Manufacturing (19.4%).
  • PHILANTHROPY CANADA
    Two-thirds of all corporate funding goes to four types of organizations:
    …Social Services,
    …Health,
    …Universities and Colleges,
    …Arts and Culture Organizations.
    66%
    24%
    84% of corporate giving goes to 7% non-profit organizations with annual revenues of more than $1 million.
  • PHILANTHROPYCANADA
  • PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM
    Nearly 2.5 million Albertans volunteer a total of 449 million hours each year.
     
    About 46% of Edmontonians have volunteered in the past 12 months.
    The average number of hours volunteered each year by Albertans is decreasing.
     
  • PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM IN EDMONTON
  • SUMMARY – PHILANTHROPY
    Challenges include:
    …Volunteerism as we know it is declining.
    …Impact of aging and diversity on philanthropy
    …Entering the corporate marketplace
    …Reaching affluent donors
    Charities may have to raise revenues in new ways (e.g. social entrepreneurship).
    Formal volunteerism may no longer be enough.
    Relationships with traditional funders more important than ever.
    IMPLICATIONS
  • G E N E R A T I O N Y
  • GENERATION Y
    Boomers tended to form affinities for charities later in life.
    Generation Y`s access to information, knowledge and their networking behaviours exposed them to issues and causes at a much earlier age.
     
  • GENERATION Y
    They tend to connect volunteerism with where they donate money, and are much more likely to want a say about how their monies are spent than Boomers.
    They are family oriented, driven to achieve, highly amenable to teamwork, and more demanding of attention and recognition than other generations
  • GENERATION Y
    Some say that if we want to market to Generation Y we do that by not marketing to them.
    Instead we have to buy into them first, listen to them, and experience things with them and in the process change with them.
  • GENERATION Y
    ...how to earn Gen Y's respect in the marketplace: 
    AUTHENTICITY.  The twenty-something consumer does not waste time on people or companies that are not being real with them.  Authentic is cool.  Authentic is a bit dorky.  Authentic is hip.  Authentic is truthful. 
    This generation has seen it all, and it takes them all of three seconds to pass judgment on you as to whether or not you are the real thing. -Bea Fields
  • SUMMARY – GENERATION Y
    Challenges include:
    …Involving young people in formal charity work.
    …Competition for mind share.
    …Mentoring new leaders.
    …Being “there” for them.
    Need to engage them in new ways.
    Find meaningful ways for them to contribute.
    Create win-wins.
    Promote younger people within.
    IMPLICATIONS
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    400 million
    members
    China: 1.3 billion
    India: 1.1 billionUSA: 309 million
    Canada: 34 million
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    These three sites: 55 million users
    Nearly 20% of married couples met online
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    The Internet 32.7 hours/week
    Television 16.4 hours
    Reading newspapers and
    magazines 3.9 hours
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    Blogger
    Twitter
    Kijiji
    Craigslist
    EBAY
    Sympatico
    Wordpress
    LinkedIn
    TOP SITES IN CANADA
    Google
    Facebook
    YouTube
    Live.com
    Yahoo
    MSN
    Wikipedia







  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    Wiki Sites
    Micro giving
    Mash ups
    Crowdsourcing
    Folksonomy
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    12 Nonprofits and Causes to follow on Twitter: 
    Water.org, Twestival
    DonorsChoose 
    Dosomething.org,  
    joinred (over a million Twitter Followers),  
    Case Foundation (300,000 + followers),
     Ashoka (over 300,000 followers).
  • TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    World Wildlife Fund 337,000 “friends”
    joinred has over 500,000 friends.
    Nonprofits are creating such a presence on Facebook that Facebook itself launched a page for non profits: it has 290,000 members
  • SUMMARY – TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET
    Challenges include
    …Understanding the paradigm shift and connecting it to your organisation.
    …Adopting new technologies in planful, doable ways.
    …Using technology to build relationships.
    …Affordability.
    IMPLICATIONS
    Organization assumptions and culture will have to change.
    Skill sets of people must change.
    Social networking needs to a part of fundraising strategy.
  • SOURCES
    Statistics Canada
    Imagine Canada
    United Way of the Alberta Capital Region
    Working.com
    Government of Alberta
    Socialbrite.org
    The Edmonton 2008 Genuine
    Progress Indicator Report
    Listorious.com