Focusing On What Matters

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Trends and forecasts of interest to non profit organizations and governments.

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Focusing On What Matters

  1. 1. BIG CHANGE TRENDSFocusing in on what matters<br />www.markholmgren.com<br />July 2010<br />
  2. 2. How will your nonprofitsustain relevancein a dramaticallychanging society?<br />
  3. 3. KEY TRENDS<br />What’s inside this presentation:<br />Demographics<br />Community<br />Income & Work<br />Non-Profit Sector<br />Philanthropy<br /> - Donations & Volunteerism<br />Generations<br />Technology<br />- Internet, Social Media<br />
  4. 4. D E M O G R A P H I C S<br />
  5. 5. POPULATION<br />Between 2006 and 2031 <br />Seniors grow by 110% <br />0-24 decrease 15%<br />Everyone else, up about 5%<br />...how about a bar graph or two?<br />
  6. 6. A PICTURE IS WORTH…<br />Seniors Population Growth 2006-2031in Canada<br />FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS<br />
  7. 7. A PICTURE IS WORTH…<br />Children/Youth Population Growth 2006-2031 IN CANADA<br />FROM STATS CANADA PROJECTIONS<br />
  8. 8. IMMIGRATION<br />In 2003, one in ten immigrants spoke English or French as their mother tongue, compared to almost one in three in 1980.<br />In Canada, visible minorities will grow as much as 113% (2001 to 2017). <br />The rest of the population will grow at a rate between .7% and 6.7%<br />
  9. 9. IMMIGRATION<br />In 2017, roughly one person in five (between 19% and 23%) will be a member of a visible minority in Canada.<br />One in seven Albertans and nearly one in six Edmontonians are a visible minority. <br />Chinese comprise one quarter of the sub-population.<br />
  10. 10. IMMIGRATION<br />In 2006, a total of 187,775 immigrants lived Edmonton.<br />60% represent visible minorities.<br />Over the next 20 years, Stats Canada projections indicate Alberta will be the destination for 350,000 to 400,000 immigrants.<br />
  11. 11. FAMILY STRUCTURE<br />In 2001, nearly 60% of adults in their early twenties live in their parents’ home, up 16% from 20 years ago. <br />54.6 % of Edmonton`s adult population is married or common law.29.7% are single<br />11% are divorced or separated<br />5% are widowed<br />In Alberta for every 2.2 marriages there is one divorce.<br />
  12. 12. SUMMARY - DEMOGRAPHICS<br />…Huge Growth in Seniors<br /># of children/youth declining<br />…Seniors out number children/youth<br />…Immigration drives growth<br />Increased Visible Diversity<br /> …Family Make-up<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />Health Spending Up<br />Social Services for Seniors Up<br />Will education spending go down?<br />Impact on Tax base?<br />Increased Language ChallengesCulture a Government Priority?<br />Impact on Volunteerism & Donations?<br />
  13. 13. C O M M U N I T Y<br />
  14. 14. EDUCATION<br />Four years after graduating three of five high school graduates have not enrolled in post secondary education; after six years, the rate is two of five.<br />In Edmonton, 29% of students do not graduate within three years of entering high school. <br />
  15. 15. COMMUNITY<br />People who do not complete high school are more likely to<br /><ul><li> be unemployed or employed in low-paying positions
  16. 16. commit crimes, receive social assistance, and to have poor health
  17. 17. AND less likely to vote and participate in civic life.</li></li></ul><li>COMMUNITY<br />Two of every five Edmonton residents feel unsafe in their community. Nearly one in three Albertans report having been a victim of a crime in the past year.<br />
  18. 18. COMMUNITY CRIME RATE IN EDMONTON<br />
  19. 19. COMMUNITY<br />According to the Alberta Government, unless better ways are developed to address homelessness, it’s estimated that the Alberta government will incur costs of $6.65 billion over 10 years.<br />In 2008, a total of 3079 individuals identified as homeless. Nearly 10% were under the age of 18 (Edmonton)<br />
  20. 20. COMMUNITY ADDICTIONS IN EDMONTON<br />There is an increase in the use and abuse of drugs and alcohol. For example, there are an estimated 4,000 injection drug users in Edmonton.<br />AADAC sees more than 3200 adult Edmonton clients annually seeking counselling for cocaine addiction. <br />
  21. 21. COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON<br />There are an estimated 1000 prostitutes in Edmonton, of which 500 are street<br />prostitutes.<br />It is also estimated that there are approximately 10,000 “johns” in Edmonton.<br />
  22. 22. COMMUNITY PROSTITUTION IN EDMONTON<br />Prostitute demographics<br />61% Aboriginal<br />33% Caucasian<br />6% other ethnicity.<br />3% under the age of 18<br />49% between 18 and 30<br />48% over the age of 30.<br />Over 50% do not have stable housing. <br />
  23. 23. COMMUNITY SUICIDE IN EDMONTON<br /> Suicide rate in Edmonton is 14.2 per 100,000 population.<br />Approximately 142 per year (2009)<br />In 1997, there were 2,118 recorded suicide attempts--or 2.5 per 1,000 (Edmonton-area region).<br />That rate today: over 2,500<br />
  24. 24. SUMMARY - COMMUNITY<br />Challenges include:<br />…Highschool graduation<br />…Prostitution (esp. Aborginal)<br />…Addictions<br />…Homelessness<br />…Suicide<br />…Feeling Safe<br />Considering demographic<br />trends, will there be funding for<br />high school education and for other<br />serious community issues?<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />
  25. 25. Income & work<br />
  26. 26. INCOME<br />28% of Alberta Men<br />40% of Alberta Women<br />40% of Lone Parent Families <br />L I V E I N P O V E R T Y <br />
  27. 27. INCOME EDMONTON<br />In 2006, the median income for Edmontonian was $29,195 an the low income rate was 10.6%<br />Just over 73,000 Edmontonians live in poverty. <br />In 2006, 34.1% of lone parent families were below the low income cut off, up from 27.1% in 2004 <br />
  28. 28. INCOME EDMONTON<br />One in six children in our community live in poverty. <br />One-third of immigrants since 2004 are considered to be low income.<br />Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population.<br />In Alberta...Lone-parent families are more likely to live in poverty than couples with children (40% compared with 9%).<br />
  29. 29. DEBT IN CANADA<br />Canadian Debt is rising at double the rate of growth of personal disposable income (e.g. Take home pay)<br />32% over 10 years<br />$752 BILLION<br />
  30. 30. DEBT IN CANADA<br />Six in ten young Canadians between the ages of 18 and 29 are in debt. <br />Of those in debt, 36% owe between $10,000 and $19,999 and 21% carry a debt of $20,000 and up.<br />
  31. 31. WORK FORCE PARTICIPATION<br />Labour<br />Force Up<br />In 20 years the participation rate in the Alberta workforce will fall from 72% to 63%.<br />Participation<br />Down<br />
  32. 32. SENIOR TO WORKER RATIO IN CANADA<br />
  33. 33. WORK CANADA<br />Past 50 years: Canada’s workforce grew by 200%<br />Next 50 years: 11 percent<br />
  34. 34. WORK EDMONTON<br />Recent immigrants experience higher unemployment rates (7.6% in 2006 compared with 4.6% of the total Edmonton population).<br />Aboriginal unemployment in 2006 was 9.8% compared with 4.6% for the overall Edmonton population.<br />
  35. 35. SUMMARY – INCOME AND WORK<br />Challenges include:<br />…Increased Poverty?…Smaller workforce as tax base<br />…Diverse workforce<br />…High personal debt<br />…Higher unemployment for visible minorities<br />Tax increases?<br />Competition for jobs/increased remuneration.<br />Impact on volunteerism and philanthropy?<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />
  36. 36. NON-PROFIT SECTOR<br />
  37. 37. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />
  38. 38. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />175,000 employees<br />19,000 non profit organizations<br />54% of Non Profit organizations<br />do not have paid staff<br />175,000 employees<br />19,000 non profit organizations<br />8,740<br />
  39. 39. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />NOW CONSIDER...<br />Hospitals, Universities and Colleges make up 1% of Alberta organizations but employ 40% of all paid staff.<br />175,000 employees<br />8,740 non profit organizations<br />105,000<br />8,550<br />
  40. 40. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />BUT ALSO...<br />64% of staff are employed by 5% of non-profits.<br />Excluding Hospitals, Universities, Colleges<br />
  41. 41. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />67,200 staff are employed by 856 non profits. <br />23,100 staff are employed by 7,000 non profits<br />23% of the<br />revenue split<br />between those above<br />and the 10,300 that<br />have no staff.<br />77% of the<br />revenue.<br />
  42. 42. NON PROFITSECTORALBERTA<br />TSN<br />
  43. 43. NON PROFIT SECTOR - ALBERTA<br />189 Albertans per Nonprofit Group<br />728 Albertans per <br />Sports Group1,894 Albertans per <br />Arts & Culture Group2,105 Albertans per <br />Social Service Group<br />2,380 Albertans<br />per Gas Station<br />331 Albertans <br />per Liquor Store<br />600 Albertans<br />per VLT<br />498 Albertans<br />per Lawyer<br />
  44. 44. NON PROFIT SECTOR – EDMONTON <br />There about 2,300 charities in Edmonton.<br />200-230 are social service.<br />There are another 3700 to<br />4200 non profits<br />
  45. 45. SUMMARY – NON PROFIT SECTOR<br />Challenges include:<br />…Funding a complex sector<br />…Focusing on “priority” agencies<br />…Perceptions of duplication<br />…Lack of understanding about the subsectors.<br />Will other trends result in fewer government and philanthropic dollars for charities?<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />
  46. 46. P H I L A N T H R O P Y<br />
  47. 47. PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON<br />25% of Edmontonians claim donations on their income tax return.<br />The average gift is increasing:<br />$1950 in 2007. <br />
  48. 48. PHILANTHROPY EDMONTON<br />
  49. 49. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />The median value of charitable donations increased from $170 in 1997 to $250 in 2007. <br />Religious organizations receive 46% of donated dollars followed by health organizations (15%) and social services organizations (10%). <br />
  50. 50. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />The top 25% of donors account for 82% of the total value of donations. <br />The top 10% (who contributed $1,002 or more annually) account for 62% of the total value. <br />
  51. 51. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />Donors who give the most are:<br />…older, <br />…have higher household incomes, <br />…have more formal education, <br />…married or widowed <br />…and to be religiously active. <br />
  52. 52. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />Planful donors tend to give repeatedly over time give significantly more than others<br />On average immigrants give more<br />
  53. 53. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />3% of Canadian businesses claimed charitable donations totalling $1 billion in 2003. <br />Half came from two industries: Finance and Insurance (32.1%) and Manufacturing (19.4%).<br />
  54. 54. PHILANTHROPY CANADA<br />Two-thirds of all corporate funding goes to four types of organizations: <br />…Social Services, <br />…Health, <br />…Universities and Colleges, <br />…Arts and Culture Organizations. <br />66%<br />24%<br />84% of corporate giving goes to 7% non-profit organizations with annual revenues of more than $1 million.<br />
  55. 55. PHILANTHROPYCANADA<br />
  56. 56. PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM<br />Nearly 2.5 million Albertans volunteer a total of 449 million hours each year. <br /> <br />About 46% of Edmontonians have volunteered in the past 12 months. <br />The average number of hours volunteered each year by Albertans is decreasing.<br /> <br />
  57. 57. PHILANTHROPY VOLUNTEERISM IN EDMONTON<br />
  58. 58. SUMMARY – PHILANTHROPY<br />Challenges include:<br />…Volunteerism as we know it is declining.<br />…Impact of aging and diversity on philanthropy<br />…Entering the corporate marketplace<br />…Reaching affluent donors<br />Charities may have to raise revenues in new ways (e.g. social entrepreneurship).<br />Formal volunteerism may no longer be enough.<br />Relationships with traditional funders more important than ever.<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />
  59. 59. G E N E R A T I O N Y<br />
  60. 60. GENERATION Y<br />Boomers tended to form affinities for charities later in life.<br />Generation Y`s access to information, knowledge and their networking behaviours exposed them to issues and causes at a much earlier age. <br /> <br />
  61. 61. GENERATION Y<br />They tend to connect volunteerism with where they donate money, and are much more likely to want a say about how their monies are spent than Boomers.<br />They are family oriented, driven to achieve, highly amenable to teamwork, and more demanding of attention and recognition than other generations<br />
  62. 62. GENERATION Y<br />Some say that if we want to market to Generation Y we do that by not marketing to them. <br />Instead we have to buy into them first, listen to them, and experience things with them and in the process change with them. <br />
  63. 63. GENERATION Y<br />...how to earn Gen Y's respect in the marketplace:  <br />AUTHENTICITY.  The twenty-something consumer does not waste time on people or companies that are not being real with them.  Authentic is cool.  Authentic is a bit dorky.  Authentic is hip.  Authentic is truthful.  <br />This generation has seen it all, and it takes them all of three seconds to pass judgment on you as to whether or not you are the real thing. -Bea Fields<br />
  64. 64. SUMMARY – GENERATION Y<br />Challenges include:<br />…Involving young people in formal charity work.<br />…Competition for mind share.<br />…Mentoring new leaders.<br />…Being “there” for them.<br />Need to engage them in new ways.<br />Find meaningful ways for them to contribute.<br />Create win-wins.<br />Promote younger people within.<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />
  65. 65. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />
  66. 66. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />400 million<br />members<br />China: 1.3 billion<br />India: 1.1 billionUSA: 309 million<br />Canada: 34 million<br />
  67. 67. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />These three sites: 55 million users<br />Nearly 20% of married couples met online <br />
  68. 68. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />The Internet 32.7 hours/week<br />Television 16.4 hours<br />Reading newspapers and<br />magazines 3.9 hours<br />
  69. 69. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />Blogger<br />Twitter<br />Kijiji<br />Craigslist<br />EBAY<br />Sympatico<br />Wordpress<br />LinkedIn<br />TOP SITES IN CANADA<br />Google<br />Facebook<br />YouTube<br />Live.com<br />Yahoo<br />MSN<br />Wikipedia<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />
  70. 70. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />
  71. 71. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />
  72. 72. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET SOCIAL MEDIA<br />
  73. 73. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />Wiki Sites<br />Micro giving<br />Mash ups<br />Crowdsourcing<br />Folksonomy<br />
  74. 74. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />12 Nonprofits and Causes to follow on Twitter: <br />Water.org, Twestival<br />DonorsChoose <br />Dosomething.org,  <br />joinred (over a million Twitter Followers),  <br />Case Foundation (300,000 + followers), <br /> Ashoka (over 300,000 followers).<br />
  75. 75. TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />World Wildlife Fund 337,000 “friends”<br />joinred has over 500,000 friends. <br />Nonprofits are creating such a presence on Facebook that Facebook itself launched a page for non profits: it has 290,000 members<br />
  76. 76. SUMMARY – TECHNOLOGY/INTERNET<br />Challenges include<br />…Understanding the paradigm shift and connecting it to your organisation.<br />…Adopting new technologies in planful, doable ways.<br />…Using technology to build relationships.<br />…Affordability.<br />IMPLICATIONS<br />Organization assumptions and culture will have to change.<br />Skill sets of people must change.<br />Social networking needs to a part of fundraising strategy.<br />
  77. 77. SOURCES<br />Statistics Canada<br />Imagine Canada<br />United Way of the Alberta Capital Region<br />Working.com<br />Government of Alberta<br />Socialbrite.org<br />The Edmonton 2008 Genuine<br />Progress Indicator Report<br />Listorious.com<br />

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