IAB Ad Spend - presentatie Roel van Rijsewijk - Affiliatedag - mei 2013
Dutch economyThe economic outlook for the Netherlands remains challenging, resulting in a weakadvertising market1 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Dutch advertising marketInternet is the largest advertising market and continues to grow and outperform othermediums even under challenging economic circumstances2CAGR*2009-20120.0%3.1%-0.3%-6.8%2.8%-4.1%12.4%Growthforecast20130.0%3.1%-4.1%-4.3%-2.0%-3.0%8.5%LegendCinemaOutdoorRadioMagazinesTVPrintInternetIAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Time spendInternet has been growing its relative share of advertising, as well as the relative share oftime spend on the different mediums3 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Consumer confidenceConsumer confidence which dipped in H2 2011 has remained low throughout 2012 impactingthe display advertising revenue4 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Affiliate marketingUnder challenging circumstances spend on affiliate marketing in The Netherlands hasincreased by 3.3% to €131 million6 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Online advertising marketSearch is the main contributor to the growth of the online advertising market; the growth ofDisplay and Classifieds is slowing down7 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012Growth2010-2011+15.4%+11.4%+5%Growth2011-2012+18%+0.3%-3.4%LegendSearchDisplayClassifieds,directoriesand listingsSearch revenue is our estimation of all revenue of Google and its competitors in The Netherlands€ 127€ 117+ 9,2 %€ 131LegendDisplayClassifiedsEmail201276%12%12%
IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012Online advertising marketOverall growth has slowed down considerably in the second half of 2012, Display andClassifieds’ revenue declined compared to the second half of 2011. Affiliate marketingdoesn’t show this pattern, relative stable during the year with some peaks as result of: Saleperiods (fashion), holiday bookings (travel) , healthcare insurance (finance)YOY%+21.6%+6.5%+7.1%YOY%+14.7%-5.2%-13.2%January - JuneJuly - December45%H1 201255%H2 2012€ 59€ 72Affiliate8
Ad Spend Efficiency Index & Ad Spend Effectiveness Index050100150200January February March April May June July August September October November DecemberAd Spend IndexAd SpendEfficiency IndexAd SpendEffectivenessIndex“The drop in activity during summer seems fully compensated by the lower AdSpend. Moreover, consumers’ increased ‘Willingness To Buy’ increases the AdSpend Effectiveness. Apparently, the stock markets’ proverb ‘Go away inMay*, but remember to be back in September’ does not hold for the Online AdSpend market.”* A recent paper by Jacobsen and Zhang proved that over 300 years, in the UK, the ‘sell in may’ strategy consistently and significantly outperformed the markets
Factors affecting ad spend affiliate marketingCookielaw:• Insecurity about enforcement by OPTA Advertisers were reserved towardsperformance advertising• A lot of time is invested by networks, advertisers and publishers on development ofpolicies and technical solutions without direct benefits, resulting on negative effects onturnoverConversion Attribution• The customer journey and “fair” commission models get more and more important• Specific technologies and settings can have negative impact on affiliate campaign• Shift of budgets/ ad spend to other channels due to deduplication among onlinechannels10 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Display revenue per mediumGrowth for mobile advertising was strong, however it is growing from a small base andremains a relatively small part of total advertising11• Websites not fully optimized for mobile yet (advertiser & publisher)• Tracking on mobile websites / Apps is lacking• Share of email read on mobile device• Effects on share of affiliate marketIAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Payment Models12• Decrease Email marketing decrease CPL• Crisis: CPS model is “safe” option• Growth automated trading: keeps CPC / CPM stable whereas a decline wouldhave taken placeIAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
IndustriesAutomotive and Consumer Goods have lost relative share in advertising spend, whilst Traveland ICT Services show most growth-0.2%+4.5%+0.6%-2.4%+3.4%+0.4%-2.6%-1.5%+1.7%-1.3%+0.9%-1.4%Financial servicesTravelTelecomAutomotiveICT servicesHardware &electronicsConsumer goodsRetailFashionPublic sectorFree timePersonal careChange with 2011 inpercentage points13 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Industries: total online ad spend vs. affiliate14Online TotalAffiliateIAB report on Online Ad Spend 201206,3%0,8%3,7%0,8%0,5%12,0%8,1%1,7%0,3%16,1%3,4%18,2%24,7%0%6,5%2,7%6,3%5,5%3,9%4,9%8,3%2,5%10,2%3,2%9,9%13,0%OtherICT ServicesFree TimeHardware & electronicsConsumer goodsFashionRetailAutomotivePersonal CareTravelEnergy/ Public sectorTelecomFinancial Services
Publisher Models15 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Revenue growth expectationsRespondents predict a 4.7% market growth in 201317 IAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Display and classified revenue forecastDisplay is expected to grow by 4.5% in 2013, with classifieds likely to decline by 5% resultingin a relatively flat 2013 for most Dutch publishers18CAGR2010-2011+5.8%+0.8%Growth2012-2013+4.5%-5%LegendDisplayClassifieds,directoriesandlistingsIAB report on Online Ad Spend 2012
Expectations Affiliate Marketing 201319 Deloitte PowerPoint timesaver – March 2011General• Market Growth of 5-15%• All networks expectnetwork growth• Retail will be the industrywith the highest growthrate, Telecom will decline• The cookie law will affectthe turnover negatively.• Effects of economic andregulatory developmentscan affect the marketnegativelyChannels• Email marketing willdecline• Mobile will be the highestgrowth channel• Quality of publishers willget more important• Conversion attributionand deduplication willaffect the networksnegatively• RTB can win marketshare at the cost ofaffiliate marketing, buteffects are depended onlegislation regardingprivacy.Technology• Conversion attributionwill get more important,and possibleimplemented astechnology within thesystems of networks• Growth of importance ofdata and technology tocontrol and optimizecampaigns• Integration of RTB andaffiliate marketing
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