The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell What’s the point?  <ul><li>Lawrence W. Sherman </li></ul><ul><li>Department of Crimi...
Paul Revere
 
 
A Social Network
Which One is William Dawes?
Where is Paul Revere?
4 Degrees of Separation
But Is That The Point? <ul><li>Practical Points— </li></ul><ul><li>“ useful” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Liberal Education” Points...
Archimedes, 287-212 B.C. <ul><li>Mathematician </li></ul><ul><li>Physicist </li></ul><ul><li>Engineer </li></ul><ul><li>In...
What’s The Point? <ul><li>1. Key “Points” of  The Tipping Point: </li></ul><ul><li>--Little things  can  make a big differ...
What Can You Do With It? <ul><li>Succeed in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Change the world  </li></ul><ul><li>Understand the...
Succeed in the World <ul><li>Get a job </li></ul><ul><li>Get promoted </li></ul><ul><li>Get elected </li></ul><ul><li>Get ...
US Fax Sales 1984-1989
 
Change The World <ul><li>Cause good epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>—wear seat belts </li></ul><ul><li>Prevent or stop bad epi...
 
Persuade Parents to Vaccinate for Polio:Tamil Nadu, India, 1991-2003
Understand the World <ul><li>Think more like a social scientist: </li></ul><ul><li>How things  Could  be </li></ul><ul><li...
Save The World <ul><li>Foresee disasters </li></ul><ul><li>Take steps against them </li></ul><ul><li>Establish Warnings </...
Three Questions <ul><li>What is a Tipping Point? </li></ul><ul><li>Why are Tipping Points important? </li></ul><ul><li>How...
1. What Is a Tipping Point? <ul><li>Definitions </li></ul><ul><li>Examples </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamics--ABCs </li></ul>
What it is  NOT: <ul><li>Just A  TURNING  Point. </li></ul><ul><li>WHY NOT? </li></ul>
TURNING Points Can Be Gradual <ul><li>US Civil War 1861-65 </li></ul><ul><li>Gettysburg 1863 </li></ul><ul><li>Two years u...
TIPPING Points are  SUDDEN
Turning Points Are Often Slow: Tobacco in USA, 1920-99
Definition <ul><li>“That one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once.” </li></ul><ul><li>--M...
linear linear nonlinear, gradual decay nonlinear, tipping Rates of Growth and Decay size of police force crime rate size o...
Mathematical Definition
More Precisely,  A Sequence of  Behaviors  by  <ul><li>Innovators </li></ul><ul><li>Early Adopters </li></ul><ul><li>Major...
Where  Is the Tipping Point? <ul><li>Look Within: </li></ul><ul><li>“ ..a perfect epidemic curve, tipping just as the  </l...
Find the Tipping Points: Name That Year <ul><li>Adoption of Seed Corn in Iowa, 1928-1941 </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in Crime, ...
 
 
NY Murder by Percent, 1990-98
 
Dynamics <ul><li>Epidemics, not gradual change </li></ul><ul><li>Tipping Points— </li></ul><ul><li>found within epidemic c...
Dynamics of Epidemics <ul><li>Contagion (through social networks) </li></ul><ul><li>Little causes = big effects (geometric...
ABCs of Tipping Points <ul><li>A. The Law of the Few </li></ul><ul><li>B. The Stickiness Factor </li></ul><ul><li>C. The P...
A. The Law of the Few <ul><li>“ The success of any kind of social epidemic is  </li></ul><ul><li>dependent upon the involv...
Vilfredo Pareto, 1848-1923 <ul><li>Italian Economist </li></ul><ul><li>Inspired “80/20” Rule: </li></ul><ul><li>80% of res...
 
The Few Who Matter Most: Leaders (of sorts) <ul><li>Connectors —linking diverse people </li></ul><ul><li>Mavens —brokering...
Connector: Paul Revere <ul><li>Silversmith </li></ul><ul><li>Cardplayer </li></ul><ul><li>Theatre-goer </li></ul><ul><li>F...
Maven: Gorge Soros <ul><li>Currency Markets </li></ul><ul><li>(1997 Asian  Crisis) </li></ul><ul><li>Fall of Communism </l...
Salesman: Ronald Reagan <ul><li>Radio Sports Shows </li></ul><ul><li>Movie Actor </li></ul><ul><li>TV Commercials </li></u...
Not Just The Famous <ul><li>Many connectors, mavens, salespeople </li></ul><ul><li>Ordinary people in everyday life </li><...
B. The “Stickiness” Factor
How Can You Tell What Sticks? <ul><li>Test—probability message is accepted </li></ul><ul><li>Tinker </li></ul><ul><li>Test...
Little Changes—Big Effects <ul><li>Presentations of ideas or options </li></ul><ul><li>Small variations—e.g. abstract to c...
The Filth Epiphany <ul><li>Dyson Vacuum </li></ul><ul><li>12 million sold </li></ul><ul><li>60% word-of-mouth </li></ul><u...
C. The Power of Context <ul><li>The Good Samaritan </li></ul><ul><li>Sermon  </li></ul><ul><li>Practice What You Preach? <...
Paul Revere Alone? <ul><li>Paul Revere = a match </li></ul><ul><li>Context was a dry forest </li></ul><ul><li>William Dawe...
Is Your Forest Wet or Dry?
Context Makes “Great Men” <ul><li>Without broad social & political forces, </li></ul><ul><li>“Great” people cannot be grea...
Spread of Syphilis <ul><li>Context of Available Treatment </li></ul><ul><li>Small Cut in Budget </li></ul><ul><li>Small nu...
 
Same for Terrorism <ul><li>Small number of people </li></ul><ul><li>Great Deal of Damage </li></ul><ul><li>Not like nation...
Little Changes in CONTEXT Can Produce Big Effects—even on the “Few” <ul><li>Graffiti in the subways? </li></ul><ul><li>Che...
But some Tipping Points  Come From BIG events
2. Why are Tipping Points Important?  <ul><li>Not that  ALL  change happens by tipping </li></ul><ul><li>But tipping yield...
 
3. How Can Tipping Points be Manufactured?  <ul><li>Focus resources:  </li></ul><ul><li>---contagious messengers (connecto...
 
Can You Tell Me? <ul><li>What do the next five pictures have in </li></ul><ul><li>COMMON? </li></ul>
 
 
 
 
 
DE-FOREST-ATION =  Drought, Destruction <ul><li>Jared Diamond </li></ul><ul><li>Author of Guns, Germs & Steel </li></ul><u...
Greenland, 900-1400 A.D. Two Sources of Food <ul><li>Inuit: </li></ul><ul><li>Viking: </li></ul>
Collapse! <ul><li>Colder climate </li></ul><ul><li>Not enough feed for cows </li></ul><ul><li>Norse died quickly </li></ul...
How Did They Die? <ul><li>Gradually? </li></ul><ul><li>Plenty of warning? </li></ul><ul><li>Just like a tsunami—not much <...
Not This, but…
 
Epistemology <ul><li>A “way of thinking:”  </li></ul><ul><li>Stories  in  numbers— geometric changes </li></ul><ul><li>Soc...
Synthesis: A Liberal Art <ul><li>Combining facts, ideas, in new ways </li></ul><ul><li>Deducing, predicting, inducing </li...
Also, A  Warning! <ul><li>Pace of change may not be linear </li></ul><ul><li>Change may accelerate without notice </li></u...
Can We, Can You? <ul><li>Use geometric thinking  </li></ul><ul><li>Predict bad tipping points </li></ul><ul><li>Tip back a...
Is This You?
If You Were a Viking? <ul><li>In Greenland </li></ul><ul><li>1406 </li></ul><ul><li>No food </li></ul><ul><li>Much fish </...
Can Societies Cooperate?
Can We, Together, Reach a  GOOD ….
Tipping Point?
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Tippingpoint

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The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell: What’s the Point? Presentation of Lawrence W. Sherman back in 2004.

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  • Thank you very much for the slides... Will make use of them for our 'Social Development' class at the Ateneo Graduate School of Business, Rockwell, Makati City, Philippines... Happy Day!!! :))
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  • please share the slides with me, you can send to lorrainemtambo@gmail.com
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  • hi Marco. Nice insightful slides, could you share the slides with me? my email is ericssan@gmail.com

    Thanks!
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  • nice summary !! could u please share slides with me.
    spankaj.elec.27@gmail.com
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  • wonderful and very moving, will help with my phd, can i ask you for a copy of the slides?
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  • Transcript of "Tippingpoint"

    1. 1. The Tipping Point by Malcolm Gladwell What’s the point? <ul><li>Lawrence W. Sherman </li></ul><ul><li>Department of Criminology </li></ul><ul><li>University of Pennsylvania </li></ul><ul><li>@ Copyright 2004 </li></ul><ul><li>by Lawrence W. Sherman </li></ul>
    2. 2. Paul Revere
    3. 5. A Social Network
    4. 6. Which One is William Dawes?
    5. 7. Where is Paul Revere?
    6. 8. 4 Degrees of Separation
    7. 9. But Is That The Point? <ul><li>Practical Points— </li></ul><ul><li>“ useful” </li></ul><ul><li>“ Liberal Education” Points--- </li></ul><ul><li>“ ornamental” </li></ul>
    8. 10. Archimedes, 287-212 B.C. <ul><li>Mathematician </li></ul><ul><li>Physicist </li></ul><ul><li>Engineer </li></ul><ul><li>Inventor </li></ul><ul><li>“ Give me a place to stand and with a lever I will move the whole world” </li></ul>
    9. 11. What’s The Point? <ul><li>1. Key “Points” of The Tipping Point: </li></ul><ul><li>--Little things can make a big difference </li></ul><ul><li>--Major change can happen rapidly </li></ul><ul><li>--Social networks are highways of change </li></ul><ul><li>2. Larger points of these points: social physics </li></ul><ul><li>--Epistemology of Social Science </li></ul><ul><li>--How You Can Think About Behavior </li></ul><ul><li>--Evidence beats intuition </li></ul>
    10. 12. What Can You Do With It? <ul><li>Succeed in the world </li></ul><ul><li>Change the world </li></ul><ul><li>Understand the world </li></ul><ul><li>Save The World </li></ul>
    11. 13. Succeed in the World <ul><li>Get a job </li></ul><ul><li>Get promoted </li></ul><ul><li>Get elected </li></ul><ul><li>Get rich </li></ul>
    12. 14. US Fax Sales 1984-1989
    13. 16. Change The World <ul><li>Cause good epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>—wear seat belts </li></ul><ul><li>Prevent or stop bad epidemics </li></ul><ul><li>--wipe out polio among 60 million people? </li></ul>
    14. 18. Persuade Parents to Vaccinate for Polio:Tamil Nadu, India, 1991-2003
    15. 19. Understand the World <ul><li>Think more like a social scientist: </li></ul><ul><li>How things Could be </li></ul><ul><li>Think less like a moralizer: </li></ul><ul><li>How things Should be </li></ul><ul><li>See causation like an inventor: </li></ul><ul><li>Trial and error, 5,000+ times </li></ul>
    16. 20. Save The World <ul><li>Foresee disasters </li></ul><ul><li>Take steps against them </li></ul><ul><li>Establish Warnings </li></ul><ul><li>Prevent Catastrophes </li></ul>
    17. 21. Three Questions <ul><li>What is a Tipping Point? </li></ul><ul><li>Why are Tipping Points important? </li></ul><ul><li>How can they be manufactured? </li></ul>
    18. 22. 1. What Is a Tipping Point? <ul><li>Definitions </li></ul><ul><li>Examples </li></ul><ul><li>Dynamics--ABCs </li></ul>
    19. 23. What it is NOT: <ul><li>Just A TURNING Point. </li></ul><ul><li>WHY NOT? </li></ul>
    20. 24. TURNING Points Can Be Gradual <ul><li>US Civil War 1861-65 </li></ul><ul><li>Gettysburg 1863 </li></ul><ul><li>Two years until Peace </li></ul><ul><li>Steady up and down </li></ul>
    21. 25. TIPPING Points are SUDDEN
    22. 26. Turning Points Are Often Slow: Tobacco in USA, 1920-99
    23. 27. Definition <ul><li>“That one dramatic moment in an epidemic when everything can change all at once.” </li></ul><ul><li>--Malcolm Gladwell, p. 9 </li></ul><ul><li>Not just Infection, but CONTAGION </li></ul><ul><li>Arithmetic change to GEOMETRIC </li></ul>
    24. 28. linear linear nonlinear, gradual decay nonlinear, tipping Rates of Growth and Decay size of police force crime rate size of police force crime rate size of police force crime rate size of police force crime rate
    25. 29. Mathematical Definition
    26. 30. More Precisely, A Sequence of Behaviors by <ul><li>Innovators </li></ul><ul><li>Early Adopters </li></ul><ul><li>Majority </li></ul><ul><li>Laggards </li></ul>
    27. 31. Where Is the Tipping Point? <ul><li>Look Within: </li></ul><ul><li>“ ..a perfect epidemic curve, tipping just as the </li></ul><ul><li>Early Adopters start using.., then rising </li></ul><ul><li>sharply as the Majority catches on, and falling </li></ul><ul><li>away at the end when the Laggards come </li></ul><ul><li>straggling in.” </li></ul><ul><li>Gladwell, p. 197 </li></ul>
    28. 32. Find the Tipping Points: Name That Year <ul><li>Adoption of Seed Corn in Iowa, 1928-1941 </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in Crime, New York City, 1975-2000 </li></ul><ul><li>Fall in Accidental Death, US, 1945-2000 </li></ul>
    29. 35. NY Murder by Percent, 1990-98
    30. 37. Dynamics <ul><li>Epidemics, not gradual change </li></ul><ul><li>Tipping Points— </li></ul><ul><li>found within epidemic change process </li></ul>
    31. 38. Dynamics of Epidemics <ul><li>Contagion (through social networks) </li></ul><ul><li>Little causes = big effects (geometric) </li></ul><ul><li>Sudden, not gradual, nature of big change </li></ul>
    32. 39. ABCs of Tipping Points <ul><li>A. The Law of the Few </li></ul><ul><li>B. The Stickiness Factor </li></ul><ul><li>C. The Power of Context </li></ul>
    33. 40. A. The Law of the Few <ul><li>“ The success of any kind of social epidemic is </li></ul><ul><li>dependent upon the involvement of people </li></ul><ul><li>with a particular and rare set of social gifts.” </li></ul><ul><li>--Gladwell, p. 33 </li></ul><ul><li>(Well….it can be, in many cases—not always) </li></ul>
    34. 41. Vilfredo Pareto, 1848-1923 <ul><li>Italian Economist </li></ul><ul><li>Inspired “80/20” Rule: </li></ul><ul><li>80% of result comes from 20% of people or investment </li></ul>
    35. 43. The Few Who Matter Most: Leaders (of sorts) <ul><li>Connectors —linking diverse people </li></ul><ul><li>Mavens —brokering diverse facts </li></ul><ul><li>Salesmen —motivating people to act </li></ul>
    36. 44. Connector: Paul Revere <ul><li>Silversmith </li></ul><ul><li>Cardplayer </li></ul><ul><li>Theatre-goer </li></ul><ul><li>Fisherman </li></ul><ul><li>Civic Leader </li></ul><ul><li>Insurance Co. </li></ul><ul><li>Traveler </li></ul><ul><li>MANY WORLDS </li></ul>
    37. 45. Maven: Gorge Soros <ul><li>Currency Markets </li></ul><ul><li>(1997 Asian Crisis) </li></ul><ul><li>Fall of Communism </li></ul><ul><li>(Xerox machine revolution) </li></ul><ul><li>Studies trends in many nations </li></ul><ul><li>Funding Voter Drives </li></ul>
    38. 46. Salesman: Ronald Reagan <ul><li>Radio Sports Shows </li></ul><ul><li>Movie Actor </li></ul><ul><li>TV Commercials </li></ul><ul><li>Union President </li></ul><ul><li>Governor </li></ul><ul><li>US President </li></ul><ul><li>Optimist </li></ul><ul><li>Emotion-spreader </li></ul>
    39. 47. Not Just The Famous <ul><li>Many connectors, mavens, salespeople </li></ul><ul><li>Ordinary people in everyday life </li></ul><ul><li>Yet small proportions of any group </li></ul><ul><li>1 in 100, not 1 in 100,000,000 </li></ul><ul><li>Vanguard ahead of the Pareto 20% </li></ul>
    40. 48. B. The “Stickiness” Factor
    41. 49. How Can You Tell What Sticks? <ul><li>Test—probability message is accepted </li></ul><ul><li>Tinker </li></ul><ul><li>Test Again </li></ul><ul><li>Repeat 5,000 times? (or at least several) </li></ul>
    42. 50. Little Changes—Big Effects <ul><li>Presentations of ideas or options </li></ul><ul><li>Small variations—e.g. abstract to concrete </li></ul><ul><li>Make a big difference in acceptance </li></ul><ul><li>Give them a map! Let them see dust! </li></ul>
    43. 51. The Filth Epiphany <ul><li>Dyson Vacuum </li></ul><ul><li>12 million sold </li></ul><ul><li>60% word-of-mouth </li></ul><ul><li>No-Bag design </li></ul><ul><li>Focus Groups said no </li></ul><ul><li>Dyson said yes: </li></ul><ul><li>see the dirt! </li></ul><ul><li>Tests confirmed </li></ul>
    44. 52. C. The Power of Context <ul><li>The Good Samaritan </li></ul><ul><li>Sermon </li></ul><ul><li>Practice What You Preach? </li></ul><ul><li>Depends on situation: </li></ul><ul><li>whether you are </li></ul><ul><li>LATE!! </li></ul>
    45. 53. Paul Revere Alone? <ul><li>Paul Revere = a match </li></ul><ul><li>Context was a dry forest </li></ul><ul><li>William Dawes no match </li></ul><ul><li>Colonies without tax issues, politics no forest </li></ul>
    46. 54. Is Your Forest Wet or Dry?
    47. 55. Context Makes “Great Men” <ul><li>Without broad social & political forces, </li></ul><ul><li>“Great” people cannot be great </li></ul><ul><li>Personality of “the few” may yield little without the right context </li></ul><ul><li>Not all “few” who matter are great = good </li></ul>
    48. 56. Spread of Syphilis <ul><li>Context of Available Treatment </li></ul><ul><li>Small Cut in Budget </li></ul><ul><li>Small number of untreated “connectors” </li></ul><ul><li>Huge Increase in New Infections </li></ul>
    49. 58. Same for Terrorism <ul><li>Small number of people </li></ul><ul><li>Great Deal of Damage </li></ul><ul><li>Not like nation-states </li></ul><ul><li>Small Social Networks </li></ul><ul><li>How to Find them? </li></ul><ul><li>Maven-Traps? </li></ul><ul><li>Salesman Traps? </li></ul>
    50. 59. Little Changes in CONTEXT Can Produce Big Effects—even on the “Few” <ul><li>Graffiti in the subways? </li></ul><ul><li>Cheating in a classroom </li></ul><ul><li>150+ people in the church, factory </li></ul><ul><li>Percent of Census Tract “professional” </li></ul>
    51. 60. But some Tipping Points Come From BIG events
    52. 61. 2. Why are Tipping Points Important? <ul><li>Not that ALL change happens by tipping </li></ul><ul><li>But tipping yields more leverage </li></ul><ul><li>--Faster </li></ul><ul><li>--Less expensive </li></ul><ul><li>--Perhaps longer-lasting </li></ul><ul><li>Also poses dangers to warn about </li></ul><ul><li>--Global warming? </li></ul>
    53. 63. 3. How Can Tipping Points be Manufactured? <ul><li>Focus resources: </li></ul><ul><li>---contagious messengers (connectors, mavens, salesmen) </li></ul><ul><li>--sticky messages </li></ul><ul><li>Test theories and options—social science </li></ul><ul><li>Believe in—and lead with—a premise that </li></ul><ul><li>change is possible. </li></ul>
    54. 65. Can You Tell Me? <ul><li>What do the next five pictures have in </li></ul><ul><li>COMMON? </li></ul>
    55. 71. DE-FOREST-ATION = Drought, Destruction <ul><li>Jared Diamond </li></ul><ul><li>Author of Guns, Germs & Steel </li></ul><ul><li>New Book: </li></ul><ul><li>COLLAPSE: </li></ul><ul><li>How Societies Choose to </li></ul><ul><li>Fail or Succeed </li></ul>
    56. 72. Greenland, 900-1400 A.D. Two Sources of Food <ul><li>Inuit: </li></ul><ul><li>Viking: </li></ul>
    57. 73. Collapse! <ul><li>Colder climate </li></ul><ul><li>Not enough feed for cows </li></ul><ul><li>Norse died quickly </li></ul><ul><li>Starvation? Calf and dog bones </li></ul><ul><li>No Fish Bones </li></ul><ul><li>Inuit continued </li></ul><ul><li>Fish increased with cold </li></ul>
    58. 74. How Did They Die? <ul><li>Gradually? </li></ul><ul><li>Plenty of warning? </li></ul><ul><li>Just like a tsunami—not much </li></ul><ul><li>More like a tipping point </li></ul>
    59. 75. Not This, but…
    60. 77. Epistemology <ul><li>A “way of thinking:” </li></ul><ul><li>Stories in numbers— geometric changes </li></ul><ul><li>Social and behavioral science </li></ul><ul><li>Causes of behavior </li></ul><ul><li>--outside individual </li></ul><ul><li>--inside genetics and neuroscience </li></ul><ul><li>--in social networks and situations </li></ul><ul><li>--communication and emotions </li></ul><ul><li>--social structure and demographic trends </li></ul>
    61. 78. Synthesis: A Liberal Art <ul><li>Combining facts, ideas, in new ways </li></ul><ul><li>Deducing, predicting, inducing </li></ul><ul><li>Value of lifelong learning: </li></ul><ul><li>--newspapers, magazines </li></ul><ul><li>--people and patterns </li></ul><ul><li>--experiments and field tests </li></ul><ul><li>Faith to move mountains—with a lever </li></ul>
    62. 79. Also, A Warning! <ul><li>Pace of change may not be linear </li></ul><ul><li>Change may accelerate without notice </li></ul><ul><li>Population Bomb (Ehrlich) stopped </li></ul><ul><li>Now the “Energy Bomb”—China </li></ul>
    63. 80. Can We, Can You? <ul><li>Use geometric thinking </li></ul><ul><li>Predict bad tipping points </li></ul><ul><li>Tip back against them, with leverage? </li></ul>
    64. 81. Is This You?
    65. 82. If You Were a Viking? <ul><li>In Greenland </li></ul><ul><li>1406 </li></ul><ul><li>No food </li></ul><ul><li>Much fish </li></ul><ul><li>No one ate it </li></ul><ul><li>Would you eat dogs? </li></ul><ul><li>Or catch fish? </li></ul><ul><li>Would you lead </li></ul>
    66. 83. Can Societies Cooperate?
    67. 84. Can We, Together, Reach a GOOD ….
    68. 85. Tipping Point?

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