Autism Spectrum DisordersAutism Spectrum Disorders
in Minnesotain Minnesota
Review of statewide data - Dec. 1, 2005Review ...
Who are these students ?Who are these students ?
Minnesota DefinitionMinnesota Definition
3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disord...
MN Special Education Child Count
All Disability Categories
Speech Impaired
Developmental Cognitive Disability(formerly MMM...
ASD (Birth - 21 yrs.) Minnesota Child Count Data
1996 - 2005
959
1284
1730
2242
2814
3759
4786
5929
7307
8678
0
1000
2000
...
National Facts and StatisticsNational Facts and Statistics
Autism Society of America -2006Autism Society of America -2006
...
Autism Count Relative to Other Disability CategoriesAutism Count Relative to Other Disability Categories
Ages 3-5Ages 3-5
...
Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source...
Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source...
Questions about the trendsQuestions about the trends
in Autism Spectrum Disorders...in Autism Spectrum Disorders...
 Why ...
More questions about the trends…More questions about the trends…
 Are we over identifying ?Are we over identifying ?
 No...
Estimate for Young Children in Minnesota
Under 6 yrs. with Autism Spectrum Disorders
(Given population base of 397,581 - U...
Comparison with other states - Percent of
Increase over past 10 years
0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000%
Minnesota
Pennsylvania
New...
What can we predict in Minnesota ?What can we predict in Minnesota ?
YearYear Based onBased on
AnnualAnnual
Increase of 31...
Training materials and ResourcesTraining materials and Resources
 Promising Practices: Effective Early InterventionPromis...
Minnesota State Autism Network
Goal…Working together to increase the capacity of staff, districts and
regions, to provide ...
Minnesota State Autism NetworkMinnesota State Autism Network
 Launched in 1992 as a capacity building projectLaunched in ...
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Autism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesota

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  • Data and Source:
    Individuals from birth – 21 years of age, who meet the Special Education eligibility criteria for ASD. MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. Source: http://education.state.mn.us
    Data and Source:
    MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. http://education.state.mn.us
  • Data and Source: Individuals from birth – 21 years of age, who meet the Special Education eligibility criteria for ASD. MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. Source: http://education.state.mn.us
  • Sources…2003 Copyright Autism Society of America. All rights reserved.
    1. Based on prevalence statistics from the National Institutes of Health (2004) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2001).
    2.Based on the autism prevalence rate of 2 to 6 per 1,000 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2001) and 2000 U.S. Census figure of 280 million Americans.
    3.U.S. Department of Education's "Twenty-First Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act" (1999).
    4.Jarbrink K, Knapp M, 2001, London School of Economics study: "The economic impact on autism in Britain," 5 (1): 7-22.
    5.ASA calculates that the annual cost of autism will increase to $200-400 billion in 10 years. February 2003
  • This graph shows the other rare disability categories for 3 to 5 year olds.
    One third of 3-5 year olds in special ed. are in the Speech/Language Impaired category, and 60% are in the Developmental Delay category.
    3% of 3 to 5 year olds receiving special ed. services were categorized as autistic in 2000.
    Although this is still a small number of children, you can see the trend of greater proportion of special ed children in this young age group being categorized as Autistic, while the other groups remain fairly constant.
    Reflects the increasing awareness of the need to identify autism in children at earlier ages.
  • Federal Instructional Settings
    Fed.Setting # Location Description
    1Regular Classroom
    (General Ed = 80-100%)
    2Resource Room
    (General Ed = 21-60%)
    3Separate Classroom
    (General Ed = 0 - 40%)
    4Public Separate Day School
    5Private Separate Day School
    6Public Residential School
    7Private Residential School
    8Hospital or Homebound
  • MN Child Count data for
    2000 Birth-5 yrs.= 366Given MN population base…project 1988 for same age group.
    2002 Birth-5 yrs.= 670
  • Update-Current Child Count data for Dec. 1, 2004 = 7,307 (approaching the projection for 2005 prediction @ prevalence rate 49/10,000
    Estimated prevalence based on constant rate of increase in number of ASD cases (numerator) and population predictions from U.S. Census Bureau.
    Average annual % increase in number of ASD cases since 1997 is 30.9%. The prevalence in the first column assumes this rate for the next 10 years. The second column uses 25% to give an idea of the prevalence if the rate of increase slowed somewhat. The third column uses the current prevalence rate for 7 year olds (highest group) assuming we have reached a level of detection where all cases are identified and we reach a plateau as these kids move through the system. Not increasing anymore. 2005 would not likely be that high since 7 year olds will be only 12 years old. But current prevalence for 12 year olds is 23/10,000.
    This is just guess work – it may be that awareness level will reach its peak in the next few years as people recognize that their children should be diagnosed early. In that case the prevalence rate should remain constant, and increases in the rate could be attributed to other causes.
  • Autism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesota

    1. 1. Autism Spectrum DisordersAutism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesotain Minnesota Review of statewide data - Dec. 1, 2005Review of statewide data - Dec. 1, 2005 Phil Sievers – Specialist for ASDPhil Sievers – Specialist for ASD  Who are these students and where areWho are these students and where are they educated?they educated?  What are the trends ?What are the trends ?  What can we predict in Minnesota ?What can we predict in Minnesota ?
    2. 2. Who are these students ?Who are these students ? Minnesota DefinitionMinnesota Definition 3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD)3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Subpart 1. Definition.Subpart 1. Definition. “Autism spectrum disorders (ASD)” means a range of pervasive developmental disorders that adversely affect a pupil’s functioning and result in the need for special education instruction and related services. ASD is a disability category characterized by an uneven developmental profile and a pattern of qualitative impairments in several areas of development: social interaction, communication, or restricted repetitive and stereotyped patterns of behavior, interests, and activities, with onset in childhood.
    3. 3. MN Special Education Child Count All Disability Categories Speech Impaired Developmental Cognitive Disability(formerly MMMI) Developmental Cognitive Disability(formerly MSMI) Severely Multiply Impaired Physically Impaired Hearing Impaired Visually Impaired Specific Learning Disability Emotional Behavioral Disorder Deaf-Blind Other Health Disability Autism Spectrum Disorder Tramatic Brain Injury Developmental Delay/EC Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count DataData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.ushttp://education.state.mn.us ASD is a Low Incidence Disability…ASD is a Low Incidence Disability…
    4. 4. ASD (Birth - 21 yrs.) Minnesota Child Count Data 1996 - 2005 959 1284 1730 2242 2814 3759 4786 5929 7307 8678 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 Years StateTotals Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us What are the trends ?What are the trends ?
    5. 5. National Facts and StatisticsNational Facts and Statistics Autism Society of America -2006Autism Society of America -2006  1 in 166 births1 in 166 births (1)(1)  1 to 1.5 million Americans1 to 1.5 million Americans (2)(2)  Fastest-growing developmental disabilityFastest-growing developmental disability  10 - 17 % annual growth10 - 17 % annual growth  Growth comparison during the 1990sGrowth comparison during the 1990s (3)(3) ::  U.S. population increase: 13%U.S. population increase: 13%  Disabilities increase: 16%Disabilities increase: 16%  Autism increase: 172%Autism increase: 172%  $90 billion annual cost$90 billion annual cost (4)(4)  90% of costs are in adult services490% of costs are in adult services4  Cost of lifelong care can be reduced by 2/3 with earlyCost of lifelong care can be reduced by 2/3 with early diagnosis and interventiondiagnosis and intervention (4)(4)  In 10 years, the annual cost will be $200-400 billionIn 10 years, the annual cost will be $200-400 billion (5)(5)
    6. 6. Autism Count Relative to Other Disability CategoriesAutism Count Relative to Other Disability Categories Ages 3-5Ages 3-5 0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Severe-profound mental handicap Specific learning disability Emotional/Behavioral Disorder Other Health Impaired Physical Handicap Mild-moderate mental handicap Hearing Impaired Aut ist ic PercentofSpecialEd.Childrenineach Category Minnesota Child Count 1991- 2000 Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us
    7. 7. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us Age Distribution of Autism Spectrum Disorders MN Child Count Dec. 1, 2005 Total=8,691 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Age Groups Birth - 21 yrs. ChildCount
    8. 8. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.usData Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us Where are they educated ?Where are they educated ? MN Placement Data for ASD by Federal Instructional Settings Dec.1, 2005 45% 29% 19% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0% Regular Classroom Resource Room Separate Classroom Public Separate Day Private Separate Day Public Residential Private Residential Hospital/Homebound
    9. 9. Questions about the trendsQuestions about the trends in Autism Spectrum Disorders...in Autism Spectrum Disorders...  Why the increase ?Why the increase ?  Several factors contribute…Several factors contribute…  Better training and improved identification (NICHHD ‘99)Better training and improved identification (NICHHD ‘99)  Broader spectrum now considered (CDC ‘99)Broader spectrum now considered (CDC ‘99)  Possible, undetermined environmental and genetic factorsPossible, undetermined environmental and genetic factors (Bailey’96,Roidier ’00)(Bailey’96,Roidier ’00)
    10. 10. More questions about the trends…More questions about the trends…  Are we over identifying ?Are we over identifying ?  No, there is evidence we are still under identifying in early years..No, there is evidence we are still under identifying in early years..  Are other states finding the same rates ?Are other states finding the same rates ?  Yes and some at much higher ratesYes and some at much higher rates  Will the ASD Child Count continue to increase?Will the ASD Child Count continue to increase?  Analysis of MDE Child Count and NIH data predicts continued increase.Analysis of MDE Child Count and NIH data predicts continued increase.  What forecasts or estimates can be made ?What forecasts or estimates can be made ?  1/500 to 1/200 births (NICHHD and CDC 1999)1/500 to 1/200 births (NICHHD and CDC 1999)
    11. 11. Estimate for Young Children in Minnesota Under 6 yrs. with Autism Spectrum Disorders (Given population base of 397,581 - US Census 2000) 366 398 795 1988 Based on National Institute of Health suggested prevelance rates for ASD (Jacobson, J., Science in Autism Treatment, vol.2, #1, 2000) NumberofYoungChildren Actual ASD Child Count Dec.1, 2000 (0-5yrs) 1/1000 - "classic autism" 1/500 - ASD including PDD 1/200 - ASD including PDD and Asperger's
    12. 12. Comparison with other states - Percent of Increase over past 10 years 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% Minnesota Pennsylvania New Jersy Iowa Connecticut Maine Michigan Source: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education ActSource: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act
    13. 13. What can we predict in Minnesota ?What can we predict in Minnesota ? YearYear Based onBased on AnnualAnnual Increase of 31%Increase of 31% Based onBased on AnnualAnnual Increase of 25%Increase of 25% Based on 2000Based on 2000 Prevalence inPrevalence in 7 yr olds7 yr olds 20002000 18 / 10,00018 / 10,000 N = 2,814N = 2,814 18 / 10,00018 / 10,000 N = 2,814N = 2,814 18 / 10,00018 / 10,000 N = 2,814N = 2,814 20052005 71 / 10,00071 / 10,000 N = 10,827N = 10,827 56 / 10,00056 / 10,000 N = 8,588N = 8,588 49 / 10,00049 / 10,000 N = 7,409N = 7,409 20102010 274 / 10,000274 / 10,000 N = 41,660N = 41,660 171 / 10,000171 / 10,000 N = 26,207N = 26,207 49 / 10,00049 / 10,000 N = 7,345N = 7,345 Source: Epidemiological study- Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Descriptive Study, Child Count Data from the Minnesota Dept. ofSource: Epidemiological study- Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Descriptive Study, Child Count Data from the Minnesota Dept. of Children, Families & Learning 1981-2001”. Gurney, J., Fritz, M., U of Minnesota and Sievers, P. MN Autism Project, 2001Children, Families & Learning 1981-2001”. Gurney, J., Fritz, M., U of Minnesota and Sievers, P. MN Autism Project, 2001 Estimated Future ASD Prevalence and Child CountsEstimated Future ASD Prevalence and Child Counts
    14. 14. Training materials and ResourcesTraining materials and Resources  Promising Practices: Effective Early InterventionPromising Practices: Effective Early Intervention Video available at Metro ECSU 612-638-1530Video available at Metro ECSU 612-638-1530  MN First Signs Screening kit and training videoMN First Signs Screening kit and training video Kit/video available at 612-638-1532Kit/video available at 612-638-1532  ICAN –Web-based ASD Training Modules…Evidence-basedICAN –Web-based ASD Training Modules…Evidence-based www.autismnetwork.org  www.autismnetwork.org    Supporting Students with ASD: Role of the ParaprofessionalSupporting Students with ASD: Role of the Paraprofessional http://ici.umn.edu/products/order.htmlhttp://ici.umn.edu/products/order.html  ADDITIONAL RESOURCESADDITIONAL RESOURCES  Minnesota Autism Project/Metro ECSUMinnesota Autism Project/Metro ECSU http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/asd.htmlhttp://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/asd.html  Educating Children with Autism-National Academy of Science ReportEducating Children with Autism-National Academy of Science Report http://www.nap.edu/books/0309072697/html/http://www.nap.edu/books/0309072697/html/
    15. 15. Minnesota State Autism Network Goal…Working together to increase the capacity of staff, districts and regions, to provide a full array of educational services for individuals with autism spectrum disorders. Low Incidence Disability Projects by Minnesota Planning Regions... 1+2 Bemidji 3 Virginia 4 Fergus Falls 5+7 Staples 6+8 Marshall 9 Mankato 10 Rochester 11 Twin Cities
    16. 16. Minnesota State Autism NetworkMinnesota State Autism Network  Launched in 1992 as a capacity building projectLaunched in 1992 as a capacity building project  Technical Assistance and Training modelTechnical Assistance and Training model  55 Educators from all 11 regions of Minnesota55 Educators from all 11 regions of Minnesota Regional Team ModelRegional Team Model Minnesota State Autism NetworkMinnesota State Autism Network http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/mnautismproject.html Autism Resource Specialists •Birth- 3 •ECSE/Preschool •ECSE/Preschool •Elementary level •MS-High School level

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