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Autism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesota

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  • Data and Source: Individuals from birth – 21 years of age, who meet the Special Education eligibility criteria for ASD. MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. Source: http://education.state.mn.us Data and Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. http://education.state.mn.us
  • Data and Source: Individuals from birth – 21 years of age, who meet the Special Education eligibility criteria for ASD. MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data reported to U.S. Dept. of Education as required by IDEA. Source: http://education.state.mn.us
  • Sources…2003 Copyright Autism Society of America. All rights reserved. 1. Based on prevalence statistics from the National Institutes of Health (2004) and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2001). 2.Based on the autism prevalence rate of 2 to 6 per 1,000 (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2001) and 2000 U.S. Census figure of 280 million Americans. 3.U.S. Department of Education's "Twenty-First Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act" (1999). 4.Jarbrink K, Knapp M, 2001, London School of Economics study: "The economic impact on autism in Britain," 5 (1): 7-22. 5.ASA calculates that the annual cost of autism will increase to $200-400 billion in 10 years. February 2003
  • This graph shows the other rare disability categories for 3 to 5 year olds. One third of 3-5 year olds in special ed. are in the Speech/Language Impaired category, and 60% are in the Developmental Delay category. 3% of 3 to 5 year olds receiving special ed. services were categorized as autistic in 2000. Although this is still a small number of children, you can see the trend of greater proportion of special ed children in this young age group being categorized as Autistic, while the other groups remain fairly constant. Reflects the increasing awareness of the need to identify autism in children at earlier ages.
  • Federal Instructional Settings Fed.Setting # Location Description 1 Regular Classroom (General Ed = 80-100%) 2 Resource Room (General Ed = 21-60%) 3 Separate Classroom (General Ed = 0 - 40%) 4 Public Separate Day School 5 Private Separate Day School 6 Public Residential School 7 Private Residential School 8 Hospital or Homebound
  • MN Child Count data for 2000 Birth-5 yrs.= 366 Given MN population base…project 1988 for same age group. 2002 Birth-5 yrs.= 670
  • Update-Current Child Count data for Dec. 1, 2004 = 7,307 (approaching the projection for 2005 prediction @ prevalence rate 49/10,000 Estimated prevalence based on constant rate of increase in number of ASD cases (numerator) and population predictions from U.S. Census Bureau. Average annual % increase in number of ASD cases since 1997 is 30.9%. The prevalence in the first column assumes this rate for the next 10 years. The second column uses 25% to give an idea of the prevalence if the rate of increase slowed somewhat. The third column uses the current prevalence rate for 7 year olds (highest group) assuming we have reached a level of detection where all cases are identified and we reach a plateau as these kids move through the system. Not increasing anymore. 2005 would not likely be that high since 7 year olds will be only 12 years old. But current prevalence for 12 year olds is 23/10,000. This is just guess work – it may be that awareness level will reach its peak in the next few years as people recognize that their children should be diagnosed early. In that case the prevalence rate should remain constant, and increases in the rate could be attributed to other causes.

Autism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesota Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Autism Spectrum Disorders in Minnesota Review of statewide data - Dec. 1, 2005 Phil Sievers – Specialist for ASD
    • Who are these students and where are
    • they educated?
    • What are the trends ?
    • What can we predict in Minnesota ?
  • 2. Who are these students ? Minnesota Definition 3525.1325 Autism Spectrum Disorders (ASD) Subpart 1. Definition. “ Autism spectrum disorders (ASD)” means a range of pervasive developmental disorders that adversely affect a pupil’s functioning and result in the need for special education instruction and related services. ASD is a disability category characterized by an uneven developmental profile and a pattern of qualitative impairments in several areas of development: social interaction, communication, or restricted repetitive and stereotyped patterns of behavior, interests, and activities, with onset in childhood.
  • 3. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us ASD is a Low Incidence Disability…
  • 4. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us What are the trends ?
  • 5. National Facts and Statistics Autism Society of America -2006
    • 1 in 166 births (1)
    • 1 to 1.5 million Americans (2)
    • Fastest-growing developmental disability
    • 10 - 17 % annual growth
    • Growth comparison during the 1990s (3) :
      • U.S. population increase: 13%
      • Disabilities increase: 16%
      • Autism increase: 172%
    • $90 billion annual cost (4)
    • 90% of costs are in adult services4
    • Cost of lifelong care can be reduced by 2/3 with early diagnosis and intervention (4)
    • In 10 years, the annual cost will be $200-400 billion (5)
  • 6. Autism Count Relative to Other Disability Categories Ages 3-5 Percent of Special Ed. Children in each Category Minnesota Child Count 1991-2000 Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us
  • 7. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us
  • 8. Data Source: MN Dept. of Education/Special Education-Unduplicated Child Count Data http://education.state.mn.us Where are they educated ?
  • 9. Questions about the trends in Autism Spectrum Disorders...
    • Why the increase ?
      • Several factors contribute…
        • Better training and improved identification (NICHHD ‘99)
        • Broader spectrum now considered (CDC ‘99)
        • Possible, undetermined environmental and genetic factors (Bailey’96,Roidier ’00)
  • 10. More questions about the trends…
    • Are we over identifying ?
      • No, there is evidence we are still under identifying in early years..
    • Are other states finding the same rates ?
      • Yes and some at much higher rates
    • Will the ASD Child Count continue to increase?
      • Analysis of MDE Child Count and NIH data predicts continued increase.
    • What forecasts or estimates can be made ?
      • 1/500 to 1/200 births (NICHHD and CDC 1999)
  • 11.  
  • 12. Source: Twenty-Fourth Annual Report to Congress on the Implementation of the Individuals with Disabilities Education Act
  • 13. What can we predict in Minnesota ? Source: Epidemiological study- Autism Spectrum Disorders: A Descriptive Study, Child Count Data from the Minnesota Dept. of Children, Families & Learning 1981-2001”. Gurney, J., Fritz, M., U of Minnesota and Sievers, P. MN Autism Project, 2001 Estimated Future ASD Prevalence and Child Counts Year Based on Annual Increase of 31% Based on Annual Increase of 25% Based on 2000 Prevalence in 7 yr olds 2000 18 / 10,000 N = 2,814 18 / 10,000 N = 2,814 18 / 10,000 N = 2,814 2005 71 / 10,000 N = 10,827 56 / 10,000 N = 8,588 49 / 10,000 N = 7,409 2010 274 / 10,000 N = 41,660 171 / 10,000 N = 26,207 49 / 10,000 N = 7,345
  • 14. Training materials and Resources
      • Promising Practices: Effective Early Intervention
        • Video available at Metro ECSU 612-638-1530
      • MN First Signs Screening kit and training video
        • Kit/video available at 612-638-1532
      • ICAN –Web-based ASD Training Modules…Evidence-based www.autismnetwork.org  
      • Supporting Students with ASD: Role of the Paraprofessional http://ici.umn.edu/products/order.html
      • ADDITIONAL RESOURCES
        • Minnesota Autism Project/Metro ECSU http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/asd.html
        • Educating Children with Autism-National Academy of Science Report http://www.nap.edu/books/0309072697/html/
  • 15. Minnesota State Autism Network Goal…Working together to increase the capacity of staff, districts and regions, to provide a full array of educational services for individuals with autism spectrum disorders. Low Incidence Disability Projects by Minnesota Planning Regions... 1+2 Bemidji 3 Virginia 4 Fergus Falls 5+7 Staples 6+8 Marshall 9 Mankato 10 Rochester 11 Twin Cities
  • 16. Minnesota State Autism Network
    • Launched in 1992 as a capacity building project
    • Technical Assistance and Training model
    • 55 Educators from all 11 regions of Minnesota
    • Regional Team Model
    Minnesota State Autism Network http://www.ecsu.k12.mn.us/mnautismproject.html
    • Autism Resource Specialists
            • Birth- 3
            • ECSE/Preschool
            • ECSE/Preschool
            • Elementary level
            • MS-High School level