BNEF
UNIVERSITY
BNEF UNIVERSITY
JENNY CHASE
Head of Research, Solar
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
/ / / / / /
PV INDUSTRY: BOOMING IN CRISIS
Falls in price are not purely due to margin compression – they are
also due to ...
/ / / / / /
EBIT MARGINS OF PV MANUFACTURERS, Q4 2012
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
The largest 17 quoted
pureplay ...
/ / / / / /
THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976–2012 ($/W)
Source: Paul Maycock,
Bloomberg New Energy
Finance
0.1
1
10
10...
/ / / / / /
AVERAGE EFFICIENCY OF PV CELLS, 2010-2012 (%)
Source: Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
17.5 17.7 17.2
16.2 16.3 16...
/ / / / / /
GERMAN PV COST AND REMUNERATION
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Q2
2006
Q1
2007
Q3
2007
...
/ / / / / /
GERMAN PV COST AND REMUNERATION
Source: BSW-Solar,
Eurostat, Bloomberg New
Energy Finance
EUR/W EUR/MWh
0
100
...
/ / / / / /
PV BUILD 2007-2012, CENTRAL FORECAST (MW/YEAR)
Source: Grid operations,
incentive programme
operators, industr...
BNEF
UNIVERSITY
BNEF UNIVERSITY
JUSTIN WU
Head of Research, Wind
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
/ / / / / /
THE WIND INDUSTRY IN 2013
Margin
pressure
Manufacturing
overcapacity – 2
times demand
Pricing pressure –
27% d...
/ / / / / /
TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS?
Equipment
manufacturer
Energy service
company
GearboxesBlades
De...
/ / / / / /
TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS?
Equipment
manufacturer
Energy service
company
MW MWh
/ / / / / /
TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS?
Equipment
manufacturer
Energy service
company
Low margins
High c...
/ / / / / /
HOW TO BECOME AN ENERGY SERVICES COMPANY?
Product differentiation – turbines designed for specific markets
Inc...
/ / / / / /
TURBINE PRODUCT STRATEGY
Target
specific
markets
Low wind speeds
High altitude
Extreme environments
Offshore w...
/ / / / / /
PRICING BY TURBINE TYPE, 2008-13 (EUR M/MW)
1.10 1.10
1.21 1.20
1.06
1.02
0.98
0.94
0.90
0.85 0.82 0.82
0.99 0...
/ / / / / /
O&M AND TURBINE SALES ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL
2008-15E (EUR BN)
3.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.4 6.2 7.0
18.7
28.5
26....
/ / / / / /
FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING
Cut costs Expand into
new markets
Reduce
presence in
heavily
oversupplied
markets
Meet ...
/ / / / / /
THE WIND INDUSTRY’S NEW ROI
Resilience: ability to survive pricing pressure and overcapacity in
supply chain b...
BNEF UNIVERSITY
MARK TAYLOR
Head of Research, Geothermal & CCS
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF
UNIVERSITY
/ / / / / /
ONLINE GEOTHERMAL POWER ASSETS
Just 11.4GW online
globally
196GW estimated
potential
/ / / / / /
ESTIMATED GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL (MW)
113GW (est.) in 39
developing countries
Seen as economic
developm...
/ / / / / /
ANNOUNCED GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS
10.3GW (224 projects)
stuck in pre-drilling
/ / / / / /
PROJECTS STUCK BECAUSE OF DRILLING RISK
Sticking point
$m
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
/ / / / / /
A GLOBAL EXPLORATION DRILLING FUND
LOANS
COMMERCIAL
BANK
LOANS
LOANS
DEVELOPMENT
FINANCE ORG
GEOTHERMAL EXPLOR...
/ / / / / /
PROJECT SUCCESS PROBABILITY
DRILLING SUCCESS FACTORS FUND COSTS ($M)
44%
73%
62%
55%
75%
69%
0.34%
11% 13%
27%...
/ / / / / /
INTEREST RATES CHARGED TO SUCCESSFUL PROJECTS
SENSITIVITY TO DRILLING SUCCESS SENSITIVITY TO COST OF CAPITAL
H...
/ / / / / /
KEY TAKEAWAYS
Fund is feasible – provide access to capital
Leverage investment 1:18
Catalyse capacity expansion
BNEF UNIVERSITY
ALBERT CHEUNG
Head of Research, Energy Smart Technologies
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
BNEF
UNIVERSITY
/ / / / / /
RESILIENCE: IMPACT OF SANDY ON THE POWER GRID
806
630
450
300
156 14
LIPA JCP&L ConEd PSE&G CL&P Pepco
Total c...
/ / / / / /
RESILIENCE: CAN SMART TECHNOLOGY HELP?
PEPCO (DC) – SANDY 2012
• 425,000 smart meters installed and
activated ...
/ / / / / /
RESILIENCE: UTILITY RECONSTRUCTION PLANS ($M)
PUBLIC SERVICE ELECTRIC & GAS (NJ)CONSOLIDATED EDISON (NY)
240
2...
/ / / / / /
OPTIONALITY: MICROGRIDS
15
9
9
4.8
2.41
1
0.5
Princeton distributed
energy resources (MW)
Back pressure steam ...
/ / / / / /
INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS
Geospatial visualisation tools for situational intelligence
Space...
/ / / / / /
INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS
Predictive optimisation of building energy use using building dat...
/ / / / / /
INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS
Cloud-based, big data tools to mine smart meter data
Using smart ...
/ / / / / /
BNEF UNIVERSITY
HARRY BOYLE
Head of Research, Bioenergy
Bloomberg New Energy Finance
/ / / / / /
BNEF
UNIVERSITY
/ / / / / /
BIOENERGY MARKET SIZES, 2013 AND 2020
2013:
$125bn
111
26
4
23
56
First-gen biofuels
Biomass-to-power
Waste-to...
/ / / / / /
FIRST-GENERATION BIOFUELS CAPACITY, 2004 – 2013 (M GALLONS)
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
10 12
15
22
3...
/ / / / / /
OLD SCHOOL VERSUS NEW SCHOOL BIO-INNOVATION
SURPLUS BIOMASS INCINERATION POWER
SOFT COMMODITIES
FERMENTATIO
N
...
/ / / / / /
SELECTED BIOENERGY PATHWAYS
GRAINS;
SUGARCANE
AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES;
WASTE; WOOD; ENERGY
CROPS
OILS, FATS, WAS...
/ / / / / /
TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL SHAKE OUT
ENERGY CROPS
D1 OILS, MENDEL
CORN / WHEAT
MUNICIPAL WASTE
FULCRUM, ENERKEM
JATROPH...
/ / / / / /
CELLULOSIC ETHANOL COSTS ($ PER GALLON)
2012 2016
3.56
0.95
1.46
0.19
0.56
0.22
0.15 0.18 -0.17
Feedstock
Cape...
/ / / / / /
NEW TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL LANDSCAPE
SUGARCANE AG. RESIDUES
“SIMPLE” “MORE COMPLEX”
SUGARS
TAILORED FATS / OILS
FAR...
/ / / / / /
CONCLUSIONS
Do investors understand the dynamics of niche and bulk
agricultural commodity markets well enough?...
Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie
Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie
Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie
Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie
Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie
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Bnef university solar_wind_bioenergy_geothermal_ccs_energy_smart_technologie

  1. 1. BNEF UNIVERSITY
  2. 2. BNEF UNIVERSITY JENNY CHASE Head of Research, Solar Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  3. 3. / / / / / / PV INDUSTRY: BOOMING IN CRISIS Falls in price are not purely due to margin compression – they are also due to gains in efficiency and cost The entire PV value chain has been remarkably adept at reducing prices as incentives come down, and installation volumes continue to grow strongly We expect installation growth to continue and prices to stabilise in 2013, although consolidation will continue
  4. 4. / / / / / / EBIT MARGINS OF PV MANUFACTURERS, Q4 2012 Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance The largest 17 quoted pureplay PV manufacturers made a total net loss of at least $8.9bn in 2011 and 2012
  5. 5. / / / / / / THE PV MODULE EXPERIENCE CURVE, 1976–2012 ($/W) Source: Paul Maycock, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 0.1 1 10 100 1 10 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 1,000,000 experience curve 1976 2006 2012 1985 2003 2012 experience curve historic prices (Maycock) Chinese c-Si module prices (BNEF) Thin-film experience curve First Solar thin-film module cost Cost per W (2012$) Cumulative capacity (MW)
  6. 6. / / / / / / AVERAGE EFFICIENCY OF PV CELLS, 2010-2012 (%) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 17.5 17.7 17.2 16.2 16.3 16.1 18.2 18.1 18.2 16.8 16.7 16.8 18.6 18.5 18.6 17.0 17.0 17.0 Mono cell Average all mono China mono International mono Average all multi China multi International multi 2010 2011 2012
  7. 7. / / / / / / GERMAN PV COST AND REMUNERATION 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Q2 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Capex sub 10kW (EUR/W) Feed-in tariff <10kW (EUR/MWh) Residential power price (EUR/MWh) Commercial power price(EUR/MWh) Source: BSW-Solar, Eurostat, Bloomberg New Energy Finance EUR/W EUR/MWh
  8. 8. / / / / / / GERMAN PV COST AND REMUNERATION Source: BSW-Solar, Eurostat, Bloomberg New Energy Finance EUR/W EUR/MWh 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Q2 2006 Q1 2007 Q3 2007 Q1 2008 Q3 2008 Q1 2009 Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q3 2010 Q1 2011 Q3 2011 Q1 2012 Q3 2012 Q1 2013 Capex sub 10kW (EUR/W) Feed-in tariff <10kW (EUR/MWh) Residential power price (EUR/MWh) Commercial power price(EUR/MWh)
  9. 9. / / / / / / PV BUILD 2007-2012, CENTRAL FORECAST (MW/YEAR) Source: Grid operations, incentive programme operators, industry associations, Bloomberg New Energy Finance 2.8GW 6.6GW 7.7GW 18.2GW 28.7GW 30.6GW 35.7GW 46.6GW 54.5GW 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Western Europe Eastern Europe Japan USA China India Rest of World Historical Forecast
  10. 10. BNEF UNIVERSITY
  11. 11. BNEF UNIVERSITY JUSTIN WU Head of Research, Wind Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  12. 12. / / / / / / THE WIND INDUSTRY IN 2013 Margin pressure Manufacturing overcapacity – 2 times demand Pricing pressure – 27% drop since 2008 Market uncertainty – 17% drop in demand in 2013
  13. 13. / / / / / / TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS? Equipment manufacturer Energy service company GearboxesBlades Design Siting O&M Monitoring Design Gearboxes Blades
  14. 14. / / / / / / TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS? Equipment manufacturer Energy service company MW MWh
  15. 15. / / / / / / TRANSFORMATION OF WIND TURBINE MANUFACTURERS? Equipment manufacturer Energy service company Low margins High competition Less product differentiation One off revenue Higher margins More product differentiation Longer term revenue stream
  16. 16. / / / / / / HOW TO BECOME AN ENERGY SERVICES COMPANY? Product differentiation – turbines designed for specific markets Increase service revenue – bundle O&M contracts with turbines sales Flexible manufacturing – quality instead of quantity
  17. 17. / / / / / / TURBINE PRODUCT STRATEGY Target specific markets Low wind speeds High altitude Extreme environments Offshore wind Diversify tech & component risk Lower costs & improve output Drive train configuration Generators Power converters Hub heights Rotor diameter Improved operations
  18. 18. / / / / / / PRICING BY TURBINE TYPE, 2008-13 (EUR M/MW) 1.10 1.10 1.21 1.20 1.06 1.02 0.98 0.94 0.90 0.85 0.82 0.82 0.99 0.99 1.02 0.99 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 H1 H2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 WTPI Old models New models 16% average price gap
  19. 19. / / / / / / O&M AND TURBINE SALES ANNUAL REVENUE POTENTIAL 2008-15E (EUR BN) 3.4 3.8 4.0 4.3 4.8 5.4 6.2 7.0 18.7 28.5 26.4 29.2 30.3 25.1 29.8 29.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 O&M Turbine sales 24% 17% O&M will be ¼ of turbine sales revenue by 2015
  20. 20. / / / / / / FLEXIBLE MANUFACTURING Cut costs Expand into new markets Reduce presence in heavily oversupplied markets Meet local needs in new markets (servicing, local content requirement)
  21. 21. / / / / / / THE WIND INDUSTRY’S NEW ROI Resilience: ability to survive pricing pressure and overcapacity in supply chain by rethinking business model Optionality: selling more than one product, selling an energy service Intelligence: specific products targeted to specific customers in specific markets
  22. 22. BNEF UNIVERSITY MARK TAYLOR Head of Research, Geothermal & CCS Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  23. 23. BNEF UNIVERSITY
  24. 24. / / / / / / ONLINE GEOTHERMAL POWER ASSETS Just 11.4GW online globally 196GW estimated potential
  25. 25. / / / / / / ESTIMATED GEOTHERMAL RESOURCE POTENTIAL (MW) 113GW (est.) in 39 developing countries Seen as economic development tool
  26. 26. / / / / / / ANNOUNCED GEOTHERMAL PROJECTS 10.3GW (224 projects) stuck in pre-drilling
  27. 27. / / / / / / PROJECTS STUCK BECAUSE OF DRILLING RISK Sticking point $m Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  28. 28. / / / / / / A GLOBAL EXPLORATION DRILLING FUND LOANS COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS LOANS DEVELOPMENT FINANCE ORG GEOTHERMAL EXPLORATION DRILLING FUND PORTFOLIO
  29. 29. / / / / / / PROJECT SUCCESS PROBABILITY DRILLING SUCCESS FACTORS FUND COSTS ($M) 44% 73% 62% 55% 75% 69% 0.34% 11% 13% 27% 30% 18% 100- 150C 150- 190C 190- 230C 230- 300C 300C+ Steam field Field success rate Field prevalence 1% 5% 34% 60% 549 Set-up Admin Debt service Write-offs Total costs Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Rinova International, IFC
  30. 30. / / / / / / INTEREST RATES CHARGED TO SUCCESSFUL PROJECTS SENSITIVITY TO DRILLING SUCCESS SENSITIVITY TO COST OF CAPITAL Historical weighted average success 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Drilling success rate Multilateral 3.5% Private 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 0% 5% 10% 15% WACC Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance, Rinova International
  31. 31. / / / / / / KEY TAKEAWAYS Fund is feasible – provide access to capital Leverage investment 1:18 Catalyse capacity expansion
  32. 32. BNEF UNIVERSITY ALBERT CHEUNG Head of Research, Energy Smart Technologies Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  33. 33. BNEF UNIVERSITY
  34. 34. / / / / / / RESILIENCE: IMPACT OF SANDY ON THE POWER GRID 806 630 450 300 156 14 LIPA JCP&L ConEd PSE&G CL&P Pepco Total customers that lost power: 8.6m SANDY STORM DAMAGE ESTIMATES OF SELECTED UTILITIES ($M)
  35. 35. / / / / / / RESILIENCE: CAN SMART TECHNOLOGY HELP? PEPCO (DC) – SANDY 2012 • 425,000 smart meters installed and activated at time of storm • ‘Last-gasp’ functionality for outages • Meters ‘pinged’ to locate faults • Power restored to 130,000 homes in two days VERMONT ELECTRIC COOP: OUTAGE FREQUENCY, 2005-2010 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 Jan-05 Jun-05 Nov-05 Apr-06 Sep-06 Feb-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 System average interruption frequency index (SAIFI)
  36. 36. / / / / / / RESILIENCE: UTILITY RECONSTRUCTION PLANS ($M) PUBLIC SERVICE ELECTRIC & GAS (NJ)CONSOLIDATED EDISON (NY) 240 200 165 106 105 100 60Upgrading selected ovehead lines Network reconfiguration Floodproof 460/208/120 volt equip Gas system flood protection Electric/steam flood barriers Moving selected line underground Substation flood barriers 976 1,700 1,040 454 215 200 140 60 Move 20 miles of lines undground Protection of gas metering stations Improve redundancies Improve distribution lines Smart grid deployment Modernize gas mains Upgrade switching/substations 3,809 Network reconfiguration Smart grid deployment
  37. 37. / / / / / / OPTIONALITY: MICROGRIDS 15 9 9 4.8 2.41 1 0.5 Princeton distributed energy resources (MW) Back pressure steam turbine Demand response Diesel generation CHP PV Chilled water storage Steam-driven cooling Gas turbine / HRSG Total: 43MW PRINCETON UNIVERSITY MICROGRID CASE STUDY • Resilience: • Can provide power, cooling and heat to entire campus in island mode, when utility is down • Optionality: • Can use DERs to participate in wholesale and ancillary service markets • Can purchase power in wholesale markets – arbitrage and hedging • ‘Safe haven in the storm’ during Sandy • Key enablers: • Smart microgrid technology • Renewable energy policy • Restructured market
  38. 38. / / / / / / INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS Geospatial visualisation tools for situational intelligence Space-Time Insight BuildingIQ DataRaker/Oracle Using near real- time data feeds to: • Predict renewable generation • Track outages • Monitor asset health • Coordinate emergency response
  39. 39. / / / / / / INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS Predictive optimisation of building energy use using building data, weather forecasts and demand response programme information Utility DR programs, pricing data BMS system -HVAC -Lighting -Occupancy Weather data Building optimisation engine Improved DR capacity and overall building efficiency Space-Time Insight BuildingIQ DataRaker/Oracle
  40. 40. / / / / / / INTELLIGENCE: SMART ENERGY DATA APPLICATIONS Cloud-based, big data tools to mine smart meter data Using smart meter data analytics to: • Pinpoint energy theft • Identify faulty metering conditions • Build asset utilisation profiles Space-Time Insight BuildingIQ DataRaker/Oracle
  41. 41. / / / / / / BNEF UNIVERSITY HARRY BOYLE Head of Research, Bioenergy Bloomberg New Energy Finance
  42. 42. / / / / / / BNEF UNIVERSITY
  43. 43. / / / / / / BIOENERGY MARKET SIZES, 2013 AND 2020 2013: $125bn 111 26 4 23 56 First-gen biofuels Biomass-to-power Waste-to-energy Biochems Next-gen biofuels 62 0.0011 20 41 First-gen biofuels Biomass-to-power Waste-to- energy Biochems Next-gen biofuels 2020: $220bn
  44. 44. / / / / / / FIRST-GENERATION BIOFUELS CAPACITY, 2004 – 2013 (M GALLONS) Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance 10 12 15 22 31 35 39 41 42 42 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Hydrotreatment Transesterification 1-Gen fermentation
  45. 45. / / / / / / OLD SCHOOL VERSUS NEW SCHOOL BIO-INNOVATION SURPLUS BIOMASS INCINERATION POWER SOFT COMMODITIES FERMENTATIO N ESTERIFICATI ON ETHANOL BIODIESEL Limited innovation; uses well known processes UPSTREAM MIDSTREAM DOWNSTREAM 40 FEEDSTOCKS x 50 TECHNOLOGIES x 20 PRODUCTS = 40,000 THEORETICAL PATHWAYS ALL BIOMASS MULTIPLE PATHWAYS TAILORED PRODUCTS
  46. 46. / / / / / / SELECTED BIOENERGY PATHWAYS GRAINS; SUGARCANE AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES; WASTE; WOOD; ENERGY CROPS OILS, FATS, WASTE HYDROTREATMENT GASIFICATION TRANSESTERFICATION FERMENTATION ENZYMATIC / ACID HYDROLYSIS & FERMENT. INCINERATION; GASIFICATION; CO-FIRING ANAEROBIC DIGESTION BIODIESEL, RENEWABLE DIESEL ETHANOL, BUTANOL ELECTRICITY, BIOMETHANE SOLVENTS, PAINTS, LUBRICANTS, COSMETICS, PLASTICS, RUBBERS DIESELGAS.POWERCHEMICALS FEEDSTOCKS TECHNOLOGIES PRODUCTS
  47. 47. / / / / / / TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL SHAKE OUT ENERGY CROPS D1 OILS, MENDEL CORN / WHEAT MUNICIPAL WASTE FULCRUM, ENERKEM JATROPHA AG. RESIDUES POET, DUPONT SUGARCANE WASTE GASES LANZATECH, JOULE GASIFICATION RENTECH, CHOREN, CHEMREC PYROLYSIS DYNAMOTIVE TRANSESTERIFICATION TORREFACTION ENZYMATIC HYDROLYSIS DSM, M&G, NOVOZYMES, RAIZEN ADVANCED FERMENTATION MYRIANT, COBALT, AMYRIS HYDROTREATMENT NESTE OIL, DIAMOND GREEN ISOBUTANOL BUTAMAX, GEVO N-BUTANOL GREEN BIOLOGICS FARNESENE AMYRIS HVO NESTE OIL, DYNAMIC BIOCHEMICALS SOLAZYME, GENOMATICA BIODIESEL TORREFIED PELLETS ALGAL BIOFUELS SYNTHETIC GENOMICS BIOGASOLINE LS9, PRIMUS GREEN ENERGY FEEDSTOCKS TECHNOLOGIES PRODUCTS STRUGGLINGSTILLGOING
  48. 48. / / / / / / CELLULOSIC ETHANOL COSTS ($ PER GALLON) 2012 2016 3.56 0.95 1.46 0.19 0.56 0.22 0.15 0.18 -0.17 Feedstock Capex Pretreatment Enzymatichydrolysis Fermentation Labour Utilities By-products Total 2.55 0.85 1.14 0.10 0.29 0.09 0.09 0.18 -0.19 Feedstock Capex Pretreatment Enzymatichydrolysis Fermentation Labour Utilities By-products Total
  49. 49. / / / / / / NEW TECHNOLOGY GLOBAL LANDSCAPE SUGARCANE AG. RESIDUES “SIMPLE” “MORE COMPLEX” SUGARS TAILORED FATS / OILS FARNESENE LAURIC ACID OLEIC ACID BIODIESEL FUELS ETHANOL BUTANOL RENEWABLE DIESEL BIOGASOLINE CHEMICALS C2: ETHYLENE, MEG, PET C3: PROPYLENE, ACRYLIC ACID C4: BUTADIENE, BUTENE, BUTANOL PRODUCTMARKETFEEDSTOCK PHARMACEUTICALS, TRANSPORT, FOOD, PLASTICS ROAD, AVIATION & MARINE PLASTICS, PAINTS, SOLVENTS, LUBRICANTS, RUBBER, PLASTICS
  50. 50. / / / / / / CONCLUSIONS Do investors understand the dynamics of niche and bulk agricultural commodity markets well enough? Fingers burnt during 1-gen roll out Bioenergy industry already shown its ability to innovate: now going through a natural shake-out stage, where some technologies pass and some fail Steel going in ground for a dozen semi-commercial scale cellulosic ethanol plants, with well-capitalised players heavily involved: industry inflection point almost there
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