10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives
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10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives Presentation Transcript

  • 1. 10 Factors Changing Our Media and Our Lives Gigi Johnson Faculty Director, EMEP 2008 UCLA Anderson MBA ’88 President, Maremel Ventures, Inc. Lecturer, UCLA Anderson October 2008
  • 2. Bets on the Futures
  • 3. Power in New Hands/Voices Founded 1994 Mkt Cap: $18 bn (was $37 bn) Founded 1998 Mkt Cap: $117 bn (was $142 bn) Launched PC 2003 Founded 2003 Sold for $580MM Founded 2005 Sold for $1.65 bn Founded 2/04 Microsoft paid $240MM for 1.6% 10/07
  • 4. Times of Transformation
    • New trusted aggregators of attention/time – new “Keystone” alliances
    • Opening of closed doors – new intermediaries/disintermediation, new creators
    • Uncertainty changing deals,
      • challenges in planning for an increasingly uncertain future
  • 5. More Transformation
    • Commoditization and repackaging of content
    • Generational behavioral and time changes
    • Jolts to advertising models – online and measurability shifts
    • Big-picture technology partnership and distribution bets bigger than individual title success
    • Diverging futures of exhibition & creation
    • Creative Class expansion as cost to create and distribute plummets
    • Connection as Content and Time Use
  • 6. Maximize Economic Rent by Slicing Time and Space Rights Location Time Shifting Multiple Use Multiple Media Example Venue None 1 No Theater, sporting event, concerts Venue Yes 1 No Theatrical movies Home None 1 No (Historically) Television Home None 1 No Radio Home Yes Some No Rental Home Video/DVD Home Yes 1 No Digital download services with time limits (Movielink, etc.) Home Yes Yes No DVD; books, newspapers; DVRs (digital video recorders, like Tivo) Any Yes Yes Yes Downloaded Digital Music and Video
  • 7. Pipe Battles, Round One: Cable/Satellite Faceoff Maremel Ventures Page
  • 8. Resulting Concentration of U.S. Distribution Pipes
    • (million subs)
    Maremel Ventures Page Comcast Time Warner Charter Cox Cablevision Echostar Dish DirecTV 24.1 13.3 5.4 5.2 3.1 13.8 17.0 = 81.9 million = 72 % of households Source: NCTA 12/07; DirecTV and Echostar 3/08
    • More Concentrated Cell Phones:
    • AT&T 71.4 mm
    • Verizon 67.2 mm
    • Sprint Nextel 52.8 mm
    • T-Mobile 30.8 mm
    • End of 2007:
    • 16% of HH only had cell phones
    • 13% had landlines but got nearly all their calls on their cells
    • 1/3 under age 30 only have cell phones
    • Source: National Health Interview Survey, conducted by the CDC 12/07
  • 9. 10 Value Shifters
    • Major Shifts in Consumer Appetites/Reduced Predictability
    • Shifts in Discovery vs. Scarcity – Reregulation + Technology (pipe + storage + creative tools)
    • Brands and Extensions: Key Cueing
    • Capital as Excess Fuel
    • Consumers as Prince-makers (P2P/Web2.0)
    • Battle of Open Source and Interoperability
    • Data as Power, Value, and Opportunity
    • Advertising Shift toward Direct Response
    • Global Opportunities Opening and Untapped
    • New Battles for the Home and Heart
  • 10. #1: Time and Predictability Twists
    • Return – Investing for anticipated behavior
    • Advertising
      • Based historically on predictable audiences
      • Selling access to eyeballs, evidenced by historical consumer behavior and extrapolation
      • Matching time with needed messaging at that time for coordination and resulting product sales
    • Mass Media => Mass Behavior
  • 11. US: 10 Hours Per Day Consuming Media Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA
  • 12. Share of Time: Primary Currency Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson, MPAA
  • 13. U.S. Share of Wallet: Almost $850/person/year Source: Veronis Suhler Stevenson; MPAA
  • 14. Shifting Seas and Shifting Revenues
  • 15. Significant Economics of Time and Money: DVD Maremel Ventures Source: MPA
  • 16. DVD – 2005 – “Suddenly In Transition”
    • “ It’s the beginning of the mature phase of the DVD market,”
        • Buena Vista Home Entertainment president Robert Chapek, Variety July 20, 2005
    • “ The DVD party isn’t over, but it’s 2 a.m.”
        • Morgan Stanley analyst Richard Bilotti, Hollywood Reporter , July 29, 2005
    • “ [We need to] manage the transition [to online distribution] so it is additive.”
        • Tom Rothman, Chairman, Fox Filmed Entertainment, November 3, 2006 (UBS Conf Call)
  • 17. DVDs – Quick Plateau
  • 18. DVDs 2007 into 2008
    • Revenue down 3% ‘07
    • Sequels: 25% of units (vs. 18% ‘06)
    • Only 10% of DVD sales high def, 2/3 Blu-Ray before finale of conflict
    • Top selling DVDs used to sell 20MM units; now selling half that
    • Time Warner has seen avg. DVD price drop 15% 3Q07: 5% decline in revenue on 12% increase in units
      • ‘ 08: New release unit prices flat; library <$5
    Maremel Ventures
  • 19. Viewing Instead To…
    • Cable (esp. during Writers Strike)?
    • Broadband?
      • Expansion or substitute?
      • Esp. for Millennials
    • Mobile TV?
      • Not yet in US to the degree ‘expected’
  • 20. Cable Channel Expansion Maremel Ventures Page Source: Screen Digest, FCC, NCTA 1994: Launch of Digital Satellite 1997: Launch of Digital Cable
  • 21. … but we’re watching 15-16? Maremel Ventures Page
  • 22. ..and in few pockets…fewer hands facing advertisers… Maremel Ventures Page Turner ABC/ESPN MTV Networks Discovery Fox NBC Scripps 10 10 19 13 30 6 5
    • Cartoon
    • TBS
    • TNN
    • TNT
    • CNN
    • TCM
    • Boomerang
    • Disney
    • ESPN
    • Toon Disney
    • SoapNet
    • ABC Family
    • Jetix
    • VH1
    • Comedy
    • MTV
    • Nick
    • TV Land
    • Spike
    • Noggin
    • CMT
    • Logo
    • Animal Planet
    • En Español
    • TLC
    • Science
    • Military
    • Discovery
    • 19 regional
    • Fox Movie
    • FX
    • Fox News
    • Fox Sports
    • Nat Geo
    • Fuel
    • SPEED
    • Fox Reality
    • CNBC
    • CNBC world
    • MSNBC
    • Bravo
    • Mun2
    • SciFi
    • USA
    • Food
    • HGTV
    • DIY
    • Fine Living
    • GAC
  • 23. Maremel Ventures Page SOURCE: NIELSEN MEDIA RESEARCH, FEB. EACH YEAR
  • 24. Timeshifting Gaining
  • 25. TV Embedded Messaging to Keep Viewer Attention
  • 26. #2: Scarcity & Discovery Challenges
    • Changes in Scarcity vs. Discovery
      • Minimal limits to distribution pipelines
      • Barbell affect – really big or niche
      • Realities of the “Long Tail”
  • 27. US Regulation: Opening Choice; Transferring Wealth
    • Consent Decree of 1948
      • &quot;Paramount Case“ – separation of film production and exhibition -- breakup of the US “studio system”
    • Financial Interest and Syndication (1970)
      • Federal Communications Commission ruling separated production and distribution rights in TV (aka “FinSyn” ), split company, allowed small production firms to grow
      • Repealed over time, finally eliminated in 1995
    • “ Betamax Case” (1984)
      • United States Supreme Court ruling -- Universal City Studios et al. (including Disney) vs. Sony Corp.
      • Allowed that copying content to “timeshift” is legal for home use
      • Established liability shield to manufacturers
  • 28. Recent Regulatory Drivers
    • 1996 US Telecommunications Act
      • results in billions of dollars of broadcast properties changing hands
    • Digital Millennium Copyright Act (1998)
      • Secured IP for another 20 years (most content Jan. 1, 1923 onward), for a total of 95 years
      • Established rules for copyright infringement processes on Internet
      • Limits liability for copyright infringement for “common carriers”
    • Grokster Case (2005)
      • US Supreme Court unanimously agreed that Internet peer-to-peer systems are not protected from liability by Betamax case
  • 29. “ Wired” 2004 Concept – The Long Tail
  • 30. Explosion of Consumer Options
    • Result?
      • Propagation of New Distribution Channels
          • Big “Discovery” problems, especially with new content
          • “ Scarcity” no longer a benefit for channels or content
          • Not more time nor advertiser pie
            • Increased fragmentation of viewing audience and advertising dollars
  • 31. One example: migration from traditional broadcast radio Maremel Ventures
  • 32. Another Example: Business “News” vs Instant Data
    • Business magazines – significant drop in 2007 and YTD 2008 revenue & ad pages
    • Business sections in newspapers – being dropped almost weekly in 2008
    • YET, Yahoo! Finance continues one of most profitable areas and Dow Jones is bought by News Corp. and customizing CNBC.com has exploded during this financial meltdown
  • 33. Issues down the Tail
    • Discovery
          • WOM? Social networks’ roles?
          • Businesses of Aggregation of slivers?
    • Customer Acquisition Cost must be less than Lifetime Value of the Customer, right?
  • 34. Other Long-Tail Models?
    • Ebay?
      • Now with Bid4Spots to sell radio ads
    • Peer-to-Peer
        • 4 million songs on legal services
        • 10 million plus on global hard drives
    • Brightcove? YouTube? Joost? Akimbo?
  • 35. Aggregation Gatekeepers
    • Wal*Mart
    • Comcast
    • Regal/AMC
    • Yahoo, Google
    • Echostar, DirecTV
    • Radio – 7 major program decision makers
    • Books – 7 key purchasers
    • Set Top Boxes – Best Buy, Circuit City, Cable Cos
  • 36. Aggregation Relationships
    • Skype 276 million registered users worldwide
    • Comcast 24 million basic cable subs
    • Time Warner 13 million basic cable subs
    • Dish/Echostar 14 million HH
    • DirecTV 17 million HH
    • Google 135 million unique users/month US
    • Yahoo 138 million unique users/month US
    • AT&T 64 million local lines; 14MM
    • broadband subs; 71MM mobile subscribers
    • Verizon Wireless 67 million subscribers (Verizon + Vodaphone JV)
    • iTunes 36 million users
    Sources: Companies’ Info as of 12/07 or 3/08
  • 37. Alliances Around Aggregators Winter 2008
  • 38. #3: Brands: Major Cues for Consumers; Risk Mitigators
    • Brand Gardens – Using Brands to expand flank and defend turfs?
        • Disney Mobile – all-Disney Mobile Virtual Network Operator --- with ESPN Mobile, not a success
        • MTVN – extensive brand extensions
        • Sequels, sequels, sequels
  • 39. Brands => Increasing Importance In A Fragmented World
    • Who are the Brands?
        • Bands/singers, athletes/teams, actors, few studios, niche networks
    • Signaling of values and product attributes?
    • Discovery through Brand Extensions?
    • Risk to or borne by Brands? Return from use of brand?
    • Emotional Relationships?
        • Ringtones as “who we are”
    • Trust?
  • 40. #4: Capital > Opportunities?
    • 2007 -- Excess fuel in the system
      • Private equity
      • Pumped up stock prices
      • Digital exuberance
    • 2008 – Asset buying opportunities as tap gets muddy ? Tap not closed – VCs still funding 2 nd rounds
  • 41. Changing Risk Profiles
    • Lower risk – media conglomerates – diversified public companies
    • Increased uncertainty of future business models
    • Impacts of Past Abundance of private equity and hedge funds
    • = Transaction Opportunities to Transfer Risk through Financings and Partnerships
  • 42. Gartner’s Hype Cycle
    • 1. &quot;Technology Trigger”
    • Breakthrough or other event
    • Generates significant press and interest
    • 2. &quot;Peak of Inflated Expectations“
    • Frenzy of publicity
    • Over-enthusiasm & unrealistic expectations
    • 3. &quot;Trough of Disillusionment”
    • Fail to meet expectations
    • Press abandons topic
    • 4. &quot;Slope of Enlightenment“
    • Businesses experimenting
    • Press stops covering
    • 5. &quot;Plateau of Productivity“
    • 2 nd & 3 rd version tech/stable
    • Benefits accepted & demonstrated
    • Height: niche or broad
    • www.gartner.com
  • 43. Gartner’s Hype Cycles
  • 44. Gartner’s Technology Life Cycle Models
  • 45. What about Old businesses…Flow to Films…What Do They Know? Source: HLHZ 5/07
  • 46. Other “Shoes” to Drop
    • Liquidity Morass – “Credit Crunch”
      • Credit Cards, Retail Commercial Real Estate, Insurance…pain not over
      • VCs stopping new funding in many cases
      • Potential rethinking by advertisers of spending
      • Consumer frugality in discretionary spending
    • Commodity squeeze – oil prices up and now down, global food protests
    • Political change from both – social, religious, attitude repercussions
    Maremel Ventures
  • 47. #5: Consumers as Prince-makers
    • P2P – Peer to Peer content creation and appreciation, aka Web2.0
  • 48. Web 2.0: Connecting Consumers to Each Other
    • Video & Photos & Webcams
    • Blogging & Podcasts
    • Message Boards – building community
    • Fanfiction/Self-publishing
    • E-mail
    • Evites
    • Mapping
    • Fan Sites
    • MMOG
    • Tagging
    • Documenting Lives
  • 49. Massively Multiplayer Games
    • Lineage I & II (Korea) – 3MM max, 1.5MM est now
    • Ultima Online – US – 250,000 max
    • Everquest – max 250,000, 170,000 est now
    • Asheron’s Call – Europe – 120,000 max
    • Star Wars Galaxies – 170,000 subs
    • World of Warcraft – 8.5MM
    • RuneScape (UK based) – over 700,000 subs
    • City of Heroes – 170,000 subs
    MUSH’s MUD’s
  • 50. Avatars for Kids? Stardoll 1.1MM uniques Club Penguin – 6mm monthly uniques Doppelganger’s The Lounge Gaia Online 2MM uniques/month 1MM posts/day Habbo Hotel – 200K U/M Webkinz -- 6mm uniques/month
  • 51. Digital Evangelism into Old Media
  • 52. UGC – Open Source for Content Like what?
    • http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjXyqcx-mYY – yes we can! Politics of 2008
    • An introduction to Facebook: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b-fJxzpK7s
    • Where is Matt? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNF_P281Uu4
    • Inspiration for my 10 year old’s science project: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hKoB0MHVBvM
    • Red vs. Blue that started it all http://www.machinima.com/film/view&id=275
    • Free Hugs – top YouTube 2006 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vr3x_RRJdd4
  • 53. Blogs, RSS, Podcasting -- “Journalism”?
    • 8% of American’s Blog? 2% in 2004. 28% of teens have blogs
    • (Pew)
    • Revenue models?
    • Always-on News?
    • Business Model Impacts?
  • 54. Web 3.0 – Presence and Connecting as Content
    • Social Networking as content
      • Twitter – what are you doing?
      • Del.icio.us – what are you looking at?
      • Last.fm and Pandora –what are you listening to?
      • NowThen – recording your life on your phone
  • 55. Connections as Content
    • Presence, Lifecasting, and Crowd Sourcing
    • Power of Social Networks as recommenders/influencers
      • 25% of Metacafe’s visitors via home page
      • Twittering KPCC? Barak Obama?
    • Self-Actualization and Marginalized Connectivity
      • Creativity unleashed – 10%?
      • Gathering of the marginalized – pro-ani, pro-mia, gang recruiting
  • 56. Universal McCann 4/08 Findings
    • 73% of global Internet users have read a blog
    • 184 million bloggers world-wide
    • #1 Topic: personal life and family
    • China has 42 million bloggers, more than the US and Western Europe combined
    Source of this and next pages: Universal McCann Next Thing Now Study, 4/08
  • 57. Global Blogging Readership
  • 58. Global Blogging Writers
  • 59. Social Network Environment 4/07 U.S. Maremel Ventures
  • 60. Global Connectors
  • 61. Global Differences in Influence
  • 62. UGC Video differences
  • 63. Yet We Aren’t All in the Pool Source: Pew Internet Study May 2007
  • 64. Video: March ‘08 ComScore Snapshot
    • 73.7% of US Internet audience viewed online video, 235 minutes, 2.8 min avg/video
      • 84.8 million viewers watched 4.3 billion videos on YouTube.com (50.4 videos per viewer)
      • 47.7 million viewers watched 400 million videos on MySpace.com (8.4 videos per viewer)
  • 65. And from Networks, Traffic
  • 66. And Selling (To) Different Users
  • 67. #6: Data = $$ Behavioral Targeting, SEO, Search
    • Data as power, competitive advantage, and salable asset
      • Advertising shift toward Direct Response
      • Search as ad driver
  • 68. One-way Media – Broadcast
  • 69. One-way Media – Cable 1980s-1990s Satellite Headend TV(s) & analog cable box Viewer(s) Project Canoe
  • 70. Amazon – Knowing You
    • 2000 -- subject of a lawsuit and an inquiry by the Federal Trade Commission over the use of personal data collected by its Alexa Internet unit
    Hello, G. Johnson. We have recommendations for you. (If you're not G. Johnson, click here .)
  • 71. Portals – Knowing You Even Better
    • Customize screen for your needs
    • Keep track of your searches and activities -- cookies
    • Targets ads to your demographic/psychographic
  • 72. Buying Your Interests
    • 24/7 Real Media, Inc.
    • Adteractive, Inc. (intellisrv.net)
    • Advertising.com, Inc.
    • Alena/PMG
    • Atlas DMT (atdmt.com, avenuea.com)
    • Autotrader LLC
    • BidClix, Inc.
    • Bluestreak, Inc.
    • Centrport
    • Cossette Media/Fjord Interactive (adcentriconline.com, fjordinteractive.com)
    • Claria Corporation
    • Commission Junction, Inc.
    • DoubleClick, Inc.
    • Dynamic Logic (questionmarket.com)
    • eBoz, Inc. (linkbuddies.com)
    • EyeBlaster, Inc. (serving-sys.com)
    • eyeReturn
    • EyeWonder, Inc. (xlontech.net)
    • FastClick.com, Inc. (adserver.com)
    • FactorTG, Inc. (factortg.com, suitesmart.com)
    • Interpolls Network, Inc.
    • Insight Express
    • Klipmart Corporation (kliptracker.com)
    • Mediaplex, Inc.
    • NexTag, Inc.
    • Pennyweb, Inc./Ad Dynamix
    • Performance Marketing Group (partner2profit.com)
    • Planning Group International (bridgetrack.com)
    • Poindexter Systems (ru4.com)
    • PointRoll, Inc.
    • QuickFlicks, Inc. (streamexchange.com, rn11.com)
    • Right Media (ad.yieldmanager.com, adserving.cpxinteractive.com)
    • TruEffect, LLC (adlegend.com)
    • UniCast Communications (dmpi.net)
    • United Virtualities
    • ValueClick, Inc.
    • Video Banner
    • Zedo, Inc.
    Currently, Yahoo! has relationships with the following ad networks (click to visit their site):
  • 73. Buying Your Information
    • Acxiom ’ s InfoBase
        • Offers coverage of 111 million households and 176 million individuals, nationwide
        • Acquired Claritas Europe and Consodata, 2 of the largest European data companies
    • Experian
        • Experian maintains credit information on approximately 215 million U.S. consumers and more than 15 million U.S. businesses.
        • Experian maintains demographic information on approximately 215 million consumers in 110 million living units across the United States.
        • Experian provides address information for more than 20 billion promotional mail pieces to more than 100 million households every year.
  • 74. #7: Advertising Increasing Audience Segmentation
    • Ability to slice and dice audience need and perceived psychographics
        • Audience and consumer data
        • Advertiser desire for more “direct response” relationship
        • Digital “fingerprints”
        • “ The Long Tail” – low cost of incremental inventory
        • Branding and attachment to audience “fashion”
  • 75. Search as Major Ad Tool
    • Sponsored Search – only 38% of US Google users know it is paid
    • 17 bn US Searches 8/08 (vs. 10bn 2/08; . 7.2 Billion 1/06; 5.1 billion 12/05; 3.3 Bn 12/04)
      • 8bn Google; 3bn YouTube
      • 63% of core searches at Google, 20% Yahoo
    • 43% of searchers use search box instead of address bars
    Sources: Pew 12/05; Nielsen Net Ratings, 2/06, 3/07, 4/08; Comscore 8/08
  • 76. Video Search – Meta Problem
    • Blinx – search for Google, Yahoo! and MSN Live Search, Ask, AOL, MSN, Lycos and Infospace – metadata creation
    • AOL – Singing Fish/Truveo
    • Alta Vista video search
  • 77. Re-Aggregating Eyeballs
    • Audience does not equal revenue movement: VOD, mobile video
      • CPMs depend on measurability and targeting – evidence and aggregation
      • Large value created in short period of time by Ad Networks – being swallowed up
    • CPM to CPC to CPA to branded environments
      • Carrying through to ad sales for planned fall season
  • 78. Massive Value Transfers
  • 79. Platform A/AOL Family Quigo 11/07 Tacoda 7/07 Third Screen Media 5/07 Advertising.com 6/04 Lightningcast 5/06 AdTech 5/07 Relegence 11/06 Userplane 8/06 Truveo 12/05 Weblogs 10/05 Xdrive 8/05 Wildseed, Ltd 8/05
  • 80. CRM & BT
    • Customer Relationship Management
    • Behavioral Targeting
      • Connecting the data dots between web sites and other media
      • Custom delivered message
      • Custom environment
      • Affecting your decision-making; affecting your environment
      • Conversion Attribution vs. CPC
  • 81. #8: Format and Gear Wars
    • Interoperability vs. Open Source
    • Blu-Ray/HD settled – at what cost?
    • New technologies for production – open source
      • No more powerhouses of exclusive abilities a la Grass Valley
      • Integration of digital workflow
    • Apple iTunes vs. everyone else on music DRM (and now on removing DRM)
    • Format wars on game platforms – major profits to winners; major problems to those who predict wrong
  • 82. Past Successful Format Adoptions Sources: Rogers (1995), Steinberg (1980) The DVD is the fastest adopted consumer technology in the history of mankind. Faster than TV’s, cell phones, VCR’s, and even the internet! Technology Introduction Take off (20%) Saturation (80%) B&W TV 1928 1950 1959 Color TV 1951 1964 1981 HDTV 1993 2008??? ??? AM Radio 1912 1920 1943 FM Radio 1934 1940 1979 VCR 1964 1980 2000 DVD 1997 1998 2006
  • 83. With Each Birth, Standards Battles: Control vs Open Source
    • DVD – industry standard
        • DVD – HD – challenges (+ China)
    • Digital Cinema?
    • Sound?
    • Production gear – open standard (largely)
    • Cable Boxes – don’t interconnect
    • iTunes vs. Real/Rhapsody battle
    • Linux-based company networks, educational platforms – rebellion from paying for licenses each year and dependence on creaky platforms
  • 84. Digital Momentum from Standards
    • Digital Editing, Transmission, Storage – accelerates or decelerate from standards
        • PVRs,
        • VOD,
        • DVD recording,
        • HDTV,
        • diversity of devices,
        • digital rights management
    Who is Impacted?
  • 85. The Gear Wars – Selling New Gear to Do What?
  • 86. #8: Growing Internet Family Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08
  • 87. Global Shift in Participation Source: Universal McCann NextThingNow 4/08
  • 88. UK Media: How to Monetize This?
  • 89. Medium for Social Change Source: NYT, 5/29/07
  • 90. And China. Period.
    • 1.3 billion people
    • >450 million wireless subs
    • 3G spending: estimates range from $35-37 billion over 5 years
    • Major players:
        • China Mobile
        • China United Telecom Corp. (China Unicom)
        • China Telecommunication (China Telecom)
        • China Netcom
    • Media world all its own – AdAge China, Billboard China, now Rolling Stone China
    • 2008 Beijing Olympics
  • 91. #10: Battle for the Digital Home
    • Barriers to entry – breaking down
    • “ The Box On Your TV” – Holy Grail
    • Telecom/Wireless/Cable/Satellite/
    • Broadband
    • Net Neutrality – Comcast/BitTorrent/FCC
  • 92. Now “Quadruple Play”? Pipes, Gardens? Video Voice Mobile Data/Web