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01.06.2009   Tom Presentation
 

01.06.2009 Tom Presentation

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    01.06.2009   Tom Presentation 01.06.2009 Tom Presentation Presentation Transcript

    • A
      History of Budget DeficitsSince 1989
      Budget Deficits/Surpluses in Billions
      Bush I
      Bush II
      Clinton
      11/01/2009
    • B
      Debt Held by the Public Nearly Doubled under Bush Administration
      $6.3 Trillion
      $3.4 Trillion
      Source: U.S. Treasury
      01/06/2009
    • Latest CBO Estimates Confirm Troubling Fiscal Picture
      C
      % of GDP
    • D
      Projected Deficits Lead to an Ever Rising Public Debt
      % of GDP
    • E
      Debt Held by the Public Is Projected to Reach Levels Not Seen Since World War II
      % of GDP
      Estimates
    • Net Interest Expenditure Reaches 16.7% of Federal Spending by 2019
      F
      Percent of Federal Spending
      Based on Realistic Scenario
    • Even Very Strong Economic Growth Not Sufficient to Return to Balance in 2019
      G
      Billions of Nominal Dollars
      Amount of Deficit Reduction Needed to Reach Balance in 2019
      Deficit Reduction From Alternative Economic Growth Paths
      Note: These are GDP growth scenarios. "CBO + 0.5%" means the real GDP growth CBO has forecasted, plus an added 0.5 percent of real GDP growth in each year after 2013. "Clinton Era" is real GDP growth of 3.7 percent per year over 2010-19; "Reagan Era" is 3.4% real GDP growth per year while "Bush Era" ('01-'06 average only) is 2.4% real growth per year. Scenarios of +2.0% or more additional real growth each year are considered highly unlikely, however.
    • H
      Under Current Policies Debt Will Reach Almost 300% of GDP by2050
      Debt as a Share of GDP, 1940-2050
      CBPPProjections
      Actual
      Source: CBPP Projections based on CBO Data
    • Big 3 Programs Plus Net Interest Would Consume All Federal Revenue by 2050
      I
      Program Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP
      All Other Spending
      Revenues
      Net Interest
      Medicaid
      Medicare
      Social Security
      Source: CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2009
    • J
      Growth in Health Care Spending Almost Triples Over 40 Years
      Program Spending as a Share of GDP
    • K
      Tax revenues among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries