01.06.2009   Tom Presentation
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01.06.2009 Tom Presentation

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01.06.2009 Tom Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • 1. A
    History of Budget DeficitsSince 1989
    Budget Deficits/Surpluses in Billions
    Bush I
    Bush II
    Clinton
    11/01/2009
  • 2. B
    Debt Held by the Public Nearly Doubled under Bush Administration
    $6.3 Trillion
    $3.4 Trillion
    Source: U.S. Treasury
    01/06/2009
  • 3. Latest CBO Estimates Confirm Troubling Fiscal Picture
    C
    % of GDP
  • 4. D
    Projected Deficits Lead to an Ever Rising Public Debt
    % of GDP
  • 5. E
    Debt Held by the Public Is Projected to Reach Levels Not Seen Since World War II
    % of GDP
    Estimates
  • 6. Net Interest Expenditure Reaches 16.7% of Federal Spending by 2019
    F
    Percent of Federal Spending
    Based on Realistic Scenario
  • 7. Even Very Strong Economic Growth Not Sufficient to Return to Balance in 2019
    G
    Billions of Nominal Dollars
    Amount of Deficit Reduction Needed to Reach Balance in 2019
    Deficit Reduction From Alternative Economic Growth Paths
    Note: These are GDP growth scenarios. "CBO + 0.5%" means the real GDP growth CBO has forecasted, plus an added 0.5 percent of real GDP growth in each year after 2013. "Clinton Era" is real GDP growth of 3.7 percent per year over 2010-19; "Reagan Era" is 3.4% real GDP growth per year while "Bush Era" ('01-'06 average only) is 2.4% real growth per year. Scenarios of +2.0% or more additional real growth each year are considered highly unlikely, however.
  • 8. H
    Under Current Policies Debt Will Reach Almost 300% of GDP by2050
    Debt as a Share of GDP, 1940-2050
    CBPPProjections
    Actual
    Source: CBPP Projections based on CBO Data
  • 9. Big 3 Programs Plus Net Interest Would Consume All Federal Revenue by 2050
    I
    Program Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP
    All Other Spending
    Revenues
    Net Interest
    Medicaid
    Medicare
    Social Security
    Source: CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2009
  • 10. J
    Growth in Health Care Spending Almost Triples Over 40 Years
    Program Spending as a Share of GDP
  • 11. K
    Tax revenues among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries