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01.06.2009 Tom PresentationPresentation Transcript
A History of Budget DeficitsSince 1989 Budget Deficits/Surpluses in Billions Bush I Bush II Clinton 11/01/2009
B Debt Held by the Public Nearly Doubled under Bush Administration $6.3 Trillion $3.4 Trillion Source: U.S. Treasury 01/06/2009
Latest CBO Estimates Confirm Troubling Fiscal Picture C % of GDP
D Projected Deficits Lead to an Ever Rising Public Debt % of GDP
E Debt Held by the Public Is Projected to Reach Levels Not Seen Since World War II % of GDP Estimates
Net Interest Expenditure Reaches 16.7% of Federal Spending by 2019 F Percent of Federal Spending Based on Realistic Scenario
Even Very Strong Economic Growth Not Sufficient to Return to Balance in 2019 G Billions of Nominal Dollars Amount of Deficit Reduction Needed to Reach Balance in 2019 Deficit Reduction From Alternative Economic Growth Paths Note: These are GDP growth scenarios. "CBO + 0.5%" means the real GDP growth CBO has forecasted, plus an added 0.5 percent of real GDP growth in each year after 2013. "Clinton Era" is real GDP growth of 3.7 percent per year over 2010-19; "Reagan Era" is 3.4% real GDP growth per year while "Bush Era" ('01-'06 average only) is 2.4% real growth per year. Scenarios of +2.0% or more additional real growth each year are considered highly unlikely, however.
H Under Current Policies Debt Will Reach Almost 300% of GDP by2050 Debt as a Share of GDP, 1940-2050 CBPPProjections Actual Source: CBPP Projections based on CBO Data
Big 3 Programs Plus Net Interest Would Consume All Federal Revenue by 2050 I Program Spending and Revenues as a Share of GDP All Other Spending Revenues Net Interest Medicaid Medicare Social Security Source: CBO The Long-Term Budget Outlook, June 2009
J Growth in Health Care Spending Almost Triples Over 40 Years Program Spending as a Share of GDP
K Tax revenues among Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development Countries