VMT and Emissions 1957-2050

Vehicle Travel and Emissions Marcus Bowman IAC Transportation June 2008

How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Average Vehicle Emissions 1970-2005 1970: the average U.S. car emissions were 8.12 tons of CO2e per year 2005: average U.S. car emissions were 5.35 tons of CO2e per year Emissions of Average Vehicle on the Road (1970-2005) 34% decline despite rising mix of SUV’s (SUV’s, pick-ups, and vans are now 50% of U.S. sales and were less than 20% of U.S. sales prior to 1980) EPA Chart

How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman New Cars and All Cars Emissions: Average New Cars and Average for all Vehicles The orange line is emissions of the average new vehicles. The blue line is average per vehicle emissions of all vehicles on the road . This chart demonstrates how quickly technology has an impact; and also shows how there is a lag time until all vehicles in the fleet reflect it.

What is the Impact of Driving on U.S. Emissions? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Total U.S. CO2 Emissions Chart shows total U.S. CO2 emissions from all uses (5,983.1 Tg), 2008 EPA Publication 31.2% of U.S. total = Transportation Sector (highlighted in shades of orange) 19.2% = Passenger Cars and Light Trucks (SUV’s, pick-ups, vans)

What is the Impact of Driving on U.S. Emissions? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Total U.S. CO2 Emissions Chart shows total U.S. CO2 emissions from all uses (5,983.1 Tg), 2008 EPA Publication 5.19% of Total U.S. Emissions are from driving To/From Work * EPA data shows that CO2 emissions from Passenger Cars and Light-Duty Trucks = 1,149 Tg CO2e, or 19.2% of total U.S. CO2 emissions. * Since work-related driving is about 27% of VMT * We can calculate that work trips account for 310.2 Tg CO2e (27% * 1,149). This equates to 5.2% of U.S. emissions.

How Much Are People Driving? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman VMT = Vehicle Miles Traveled VMT has steadily increased from 1957-2006 Total annual VMT is now 3 trillion miles

How Much Are People Driving? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman VMT Annual Growth Rates The historical growth rate of VMT has been used for forecasting future VMT. Forecasts by AASHTO, NCHRP, and the Surface Commission have simply used a historical average (such as the last 20 years) for a flat line forecast of the future, such as (dotted red line) 2.2% growth through 2050.

How Much Will People Drive in the Future? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman VMT Annual Growth Rate to 2050 Forecasting VMT: Linear Trend Line Analysis Red Line is the TREND (1957-2050) in Annual VMT Growth There is a trend in the VMT growth rate

Forecasting VMT to 2050 and 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Simple VMT Forecast By simple extrapolation, well-funded forecasts for total U.S. VMT in 2050 are for about 7,000,000 trillion miles.

Forecasting VMT to 2050 and 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Linear VMT Forecast Using the linear trend growth rate This chart shows ( blue line ) historical VMT (1957-2006) and forecasted VMT ( green line ) from 2007-2050

This rational forecast of the future:

Is palatable for environmental advocates

Underscores the need to prepare for 4 trillion VMT by 2025– for a 25-year period where VMT stabilizes at that level.

Forecasting VMT to 2050 and 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Linear VMT Forecast in context Without any interference, VMT is on track to flat line around 4 trillion miles of VMT

Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Vehicle Emissions in 2055 Forecasting future emissions : To make a “baseline” forecast for total U.S. emissions from all vehicles in 2055… Based on the following facts:

Total 2006 VMT = 3,014,116,000,000 miles

Total 2006 Emissions from driving (EPA data) = 1,551.4 Tg

Per vehicle emissions, on average, decline 1.17% every year

“ CAFE II” as enacted by Congress in 2007 (Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007) and signed into law by the U.S. President in December 2007 to increase fleet-wide gas mileage to 35 mpg by 2020.

The forecast makes the following assumption:

Future VMT growth will be at the linear trend growth rate.

Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Vehicle Emissions to 2055 The blue line represents the baseline emissions trend for the future.

Current total vehicle emissions = 1,551.40 Tg CO2e;

2050 with NO CHANGES in policy = 999.97 Tg CO2e ( Emissions decline 35.5%)

The red line assumes no improvements to vehicles and presumes VMT growth of 2.2% each year. This is the type of line used as an environmental scare tactic. The green line includes the new CAFE standards (“CAFE II”) with 2.2% VMT growth. Pink Dot = Surface Commission, no technology. Note that even the NCHRP forecast of 7 trillion VMT in 2050 , with 2007 “CAFE II” impact, results in only an 11% increase in total U.S. emissions.

Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman What Happens with another CAFE? Forecasting future emissions : To forecast vehicle emissions to 2055 How can we achieve a 60% reduction in total vehicle emissions?

The next slide shows that technology, realized via a “CAFE III” will reduce emissions to achieve a 60% reduction from current TOTAL emissions by 2050.

What is “CAFE III”? To reach a 60% reduction by 2050, CAFE III would be implemented from 2033-2050.

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates “ CAFE II” (already U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “ CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. Re-visiting the opening slides– combining VMT forecasts to forecast per-vehicle emissions rates. Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates “ CAFE II” (already U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “ CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. Logarithmic scale Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year

Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2055 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Vehicle Emissions to 2055 Total vehicle emissions PEAK YEAR = 2019 Total vehicle emissions DECLINE 60% by 2050 to 620.6 Tg CO2e Orange Line Assumptions 1. Historical trend line VMT 2. Existing 2020 CAFE Standard 3. Implement new CAFE 2033-2050 Just one more CAFE Standard (what I call CAFE III) from 2033-2050 is all we need to get the U.S. to a 60% drop in vehicle emissions. Actual 2006 Emissions = 1,551.4 Tg CO2e Pink dot : Even if VMT increased to 7 trillion miles by 2050, overall total emissions from all vehicles would decline.

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Flipping the chart around 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Vehicles Drive Further on 1 Ton of Emissions The red dot is a Toyota Prius. This graph illustrates that a Prius driver really is, technologically, ahead of their time. By 2032, vehicles will drive 3,792 miles per 1 ton CO2e. By 2050, vehicles will drive 7,336 miles. Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Seeing the Progress 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates The “Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve” Given where we are ALREADY ( Toyota Prius ), is reason to be extremely optimistic that TECHNOLOGY will rapidly solve our environment concerns and continue to keep our air clean Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions

Vehicles of the Future 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman 21 st Century Future Vehicles All of these forecasts– a 35% to 60% reduction in total U.S. vehicle emissions by 2050– may prove to be far too conservative. At the least, the list below can help to understand why baseline emissions are heading a lot lower in the future. Technology solves problems The Al é (Fuel Vapor Technologies) and the “Air Car” Conceptual Cars Chevrolet Volt Electric Cars Honda FCX Clarity Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Honda/Phill and Mercedes-Benz CDI Natural Gas and Diesel Vehicles Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV’s) Fuel revolution (Ethanol/Biofuel) Toyota Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid Hybrid Cars Examples Revolutionary New Trends