Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve

Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve Marcus Bowman IAC Transportation June 2008

How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Average Vehicle Emissions 1970-2005 1970: the average U.S. car emissions were 8.12 tons of CO2e per year 2005: average U.S. car emissions were 5.35 tons of CO2e per year Emissions of Average Vehicle on the Road (1970-2005) 34% decline despite rising mix of SUV’s (SUV’s, pick-ups, and vans are now 50% of U.S. sales and were less than 20% of U.S. sales prior to 1980) EPA Chart

How Much Does the Average Car Pollute? 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman New Cars and All Cars Emissions: Average New Cars and Average for all Vehicles The orange line is emissions of the average new vehicles. The blue line is average per vehicle emissions of all vehicles on the road . This chart demonstrates how quickly technology has an impact; and also shows how there is a lag time until all vehicles in the fleet reflect it.

Emissions from Vehicles Forecasted to 2050 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman What Happens with another CAFE? Forecasting future emissions : To forecast vehicle emissions to 2050 How can we achieve a 60% reduction in total vehicle emissions? What is “CAFE III”? To reach a 60% reduction by 2050, CAFE III would be implemented from 2033-2050. The next slide shows that technology, realized via a “CAFE III” will reduce emissions to achieve a 60% reduction from current TOTAL emissions by 2050.

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates “ CAFE II” (already U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “ CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. Forecasting per-vehicle emissions rates. Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates “ CAFE II” (already U.S. law) begins 2020. Fleet rollover within about 12 years. “ CAFE III” begin in 2032– 18 years of improvement to achieve 60% reduction by 2050. Logarithmic scale 60% reduction by 2050 Tons of CO2 Emissions per Vehicle per Year

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Flipping the chart around 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates Vehicles Drive Further on 1 Ton of Emissions The red dot is a Toyota Prius. This graph illustrates that a Prius driver really is, technologically, ahead of their time. By 2032, vehicles will drive 3,792 miles per 1 ton CO2e. By 2050, vehicles will drive 7,336 miles. Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions

U.S. Fleet of Vehicles (1970 – 2055) Seeing the Progress 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman Per Vehicle Emissions Rates The “Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve” Given where we are ALREADY ( Toyota Prius ), is reason to be extremely optimistic that TECHNOLOGY will rapidly solve our environment concerns and continue to keep our air clean Miles Driven Per 1 Ton CO2e Emissions

Vehicles of the Future 06.04.08 IAC Transportation Marcus Bowman 21 st Century Future Vehicles TOO CONSERVATIVE ? These forecasts– to a 60% reduction in total U.S. vehicle emissions by 2050– may prove to be far too conservative. At the least, the list below can help to understand why baseline emissions are heading a lot lower in the future. Technology solves problems The Al é (Fuel Vapor Technologies) and the “Air Car” Conceptual Cars Chevrolet Volt Electric Cars Honda FCX Clarity Hydrogen Fuel Cell Cars Honda/Phill and Mercedes-Benz CDI Natural Gas and Diesel Vehicles Flex-Fuel Vehicles (FFV’s) Fuel revolution (Ethanol/Biofuel) Toyota Prius and Ford Escape Hybrid Hybrid Cars Examples Revolutionary New Trends

Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve

by Marcus Bowman on Jun 11, 2008

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Vehicle Technology Improvement Curve — Presentation Transcript