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N2C2M2 Validation using abELICIT

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  • 1. N2C2M2 Validation using abELICIT:Design and Analysis of ELICIT runs usingsoftware agents17th ICCRTS: “Operationalizing C2 Agility”Marco Manso(marco@marcomanso.com)SAS-085 MemberPaper  ID:    003  This work results was sponsored by a subcontract from Azigo, Inc.via the Center for Edge Power of the Naval Postgraduate School.
  • 2. Agenda•  Introduction and Background•  Formulation of the Experiments•  Analysis•  Conclusions•  Bibliography
  • 3. Introduction•  Validation of the N2C2M2NCW  Theory  C2  CRM  (SAS-­‐050)  2006   2010   2012  2008  Theore8cal  Founda8ons  for  the  Analysis  of  ELICIT  Experiments      (Manso  and  Nunes  2008)  N2C2M2  Experimenta8on  and  Valida8on:  Understanding  Its  C2  Approaches  and  Implica8ons    (Manso  and  Manso  2010)  N2C2M2  (SAS-­‐065)  Know  the  Network,  Knit  the  Network:  Applying  SNA  to  N2C2M2  Experiments  (Manso  and  Manso  2010)  2011  Defining  and  Measuring  Cogni8ve-­‐Entropy  and  Cogni8ve  Self-­‐Synchroniza8on    (Manso  and  Moffat  2011)  Valida0on  with  abELICIT  ELICIT   abELICIT  Human  Runs  
  • 4. Introduction•  Theory of NCW–  NCW Tenets–  NCW Value Chain•  C2 Conceptual Reference Model–  ASD-NII/OFT–  NATO SAS-050•  C2 Approach Space and its three key-dimensions:Allocation of Decision Rights (ADR), Patterns of Interaction (PI) andDistribution of Information (DI).•  NATO NEC C2 Maturity Model (SAS-065)–  Five C2 Approaches
  • 5. IntroductionNATO NEC C2 Maturity Model (SAS-065 2010)Source:  SAS-­‐065  2010  
  • 6. IntroductionNATO NEC C2 Maturity Model hypothesises that– the more network-enabled a C2 approach isthe more likely it is to develop sharedawareness and shared understanding(SAS-065 2010, 69).
  • 7. IntroductionELICITExperimental Laboratory forInvestigating Collaboration, Information-sharing, and Trust•  CCRP sponsored the design and development of theELICIT platform to facilitate experimentation focused oninformation, cognitive, and social domain phenomena•  ELICIT is a web-accessible experimentation environmentsupported by software tools and instructions /procedures•  abELICIT is an agent-based version of the ELICITplatformOriginal  slide  from  (Alberts  and  Manso  2012)  
  • 8. IntroductionELICIT•  The goal of each set of participants is to build situational awareness andidentify the who, what, when, and where of a pending attack–  Factoids are periodically distributed to participants; each participant receivesa small subset of the available factoids–  No one is given sufficient information to solve without receiving informationfrom others–  Participants can share factoids directly with each other, post factoids towebsites, and by “keyword directed” queries–  Participants build awareness and shared awareness by gathering andcognitively processing factoids•  The receiving, sharing, posting, and seeking of factoids and the natureof the interactions between and among participants can be constrained•  Participants can be “organized” and motivated in any number of ways•  Various stresses can applied (e.g. communications delays and losses)•  Software-Agents are used instead of humansOriginal  slide  from  (Alberts  and  Manso  2012)  
  • 9. IntroductionPast Research•  A first and preliminary experimentation stage usingtwo pre-existing models: Hierarchy and Edge (SAS-065 2010).26 runs (human subjects).Edge organizations were more effective, faster, shared moreinformation and were more efficient than Hierarchies.•  A second experimentation stage that recreatedthe N2C2M2 five C2 approaches (Manso and B. Manso 2010).18 runs (human subjects).Edge reached the best scores in the Information and CognitiveDomains, but it was surpassed by Collaborative in the InteractionsDomain and Measures of Merit (MoMs). Conflicted performed worstin all assessed variables.
  • 10. Formulation of the Experiments•  Hypotheses[1] For a complex endeavor, more network-enabled C2 approaches aremore effective than less network-enabled C2 approaches.[2] For a given level of effectiveness, more network-enabled C2approaches are more efficient than less network-enabled C2 approaches.More network-enabled C2 approaches exhibit increased/better levels of:•  [4] Shared Information;•  [5] Shared Awareness;•  [6] Self-Synchronization (at cognitive level);Than: less network-enabled C2 approaches[7] A minimum level of maturity is required to be effective in ELICIT.
  • 11. Formulation of the Experiments•  Hypotheses (not covered)[3] More network-enabled C2 approaches have more agility than lessnetwork-enabled C2 approaches.[8] Increasing the degree of difficulty in ELICIT requires organizationsto increase their network-enabled level to maintain effectiveness inELICIT.These are covered in (Alberts and Manso 2012).
  • 12. Formulation of the Experiments•  ModelCollectiveIndividualSharedInformationQuality ofInformationSharedAwarenessQuality ofAwarenessPerformance(MoM)TaskDifficultyMeasures of MeritNetworkCharacteristics& PerformanceQ of InformationSources(fixed)Individual& TeamCharacteristicsControllableIn ELICITCollective C2Approach(ADR-C, PI-C, DI-C)Q Infrastructure(fixed)OtherInfluencing VariablesEnablers / InhibitorsInfo Sharing &CollaborationPatterns ofInteractionDistribution ofInformationSelf-SynchronizationAllocationof DecisionRightsID attempt
  • 13. Formulation of the Experiments•  C2 Approaches
  • 14. Formulation of the Experiments•  Defining the Agents ParametersImage  source:    Upton  et  al  2011    The  average  agent  -­‐  average’  performance  (i.e.,  number  of  shares,  post,  pulls  and  iden8fica8ons  close  to  human  behavior)    -­‐  sufficient  informa8on  processing  and  cogni8ve  capabili8es  -­‐  This  agent  does  not  hoard  informa8on.  Low  performing  agent  High  performing  agent  
  • 15. Formulation of the Experiments•  Runs are conduced–  Per C2 Approach–  By combining different agent archetypes among the orgnizationroles (i.e., top-level, mid-level and bottom-level)•  Resulting in a total of 135 runsC2 Approach Agent Type:Top-LevelAgent Type:Mid LevelAgent Type:Bottom-Level# PossibleCombinations*RunNumberConflicted C2 1 Coord 4 TLs 12 TMs 27 1 .. 27De-conflicted C2 1 Deconf 4 TLs 12 TMs 27 28 .. 54Coordinated C2 1 CTC 4 TLs 12 TMs 27 55 .. 81Collaborative C2 1 CF 4 TLs 12 TMs 27 82 .. 108Edge C2 - - 17 TMs 27** 109 .. 135TOTAL 135*      Possible  agent  types  are:    (i)  baseline,  (ii)  low-­‐performing  and  (iii)  high-­‐performing        **  Use  same  combina8ons  of  agent  types  in  Edge  as  for  other  C2  approaches    
  • 16. Analysis•  Information DomainC2ApproachNumberRelevant Information Reached(Avg: #facts | %)Shared InformationReachedMean σ Mean σ1 7.41 | 22% 0 0 02 8.29 | 25% 0 0 03 11.12 | 37% 0 4 04 33 | 100% 0 68 05 33 | 100% 0 68 0OBS:  Shared  Informa8on  reached  maximum  value  is  68  
  • 17. Analysis•  Information DomainC2ApproachNumberTop-Level(CTC)Mid-Level(Who TL)Mid-Level(What TL)Mid-Level(Where TL)Mid-Level(When TL)1 4 16 16 16 162 20 20 20 20 203 68 20 20 20 204 68 68 68 68 685 - - - - -
  • 18. C2ApproachNumberInteractionsActivity(Shares, Posts,Pulls)TeamInward-OutwardRatioNetwork Reach(%)Mean σ Mean σ1 41.28 22.36 1.00 18% 0.002 42.74 20.72 0.95 21% 0.003 45.95 24.05 0.95 21% 0.004 115.68 43.56 0.22 100% 0.005 116.39 44.00 - 100% 0.00Analysis•  Interactions / Social Domain
  • 19. Analysis•  Sociogram: Conflicted C2
  • 20. Analysis•  Sociogram: De-Conflicted C2
  • 21. Analysis•  Sociogram: Coordinated C2
  • 22. Analysis•  Sociogram: Collaborative C2
  • 23. Analysis•  Sociogram: Edge C2
  • 24. Analysis•  Cognitive Domain0"10"20"30"40"50"60"0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6"range&[0,&68]&C2&Approach&Level&Par8ally&Correct&IDs&#"Correct"IDs"(all"runs)"#"Correct"IDs"(mean)"
  • 25. 0"0.2"0.4"0.6"0.8"1"0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6"Range:[0*1]C2ApproachNumberCSSyncCSSync"(all"runs)"CSSync"(mean)"Analysis•  Cognitive DomainFor  info  on  CSSync  See  (Manso  and  Moffat  2011)  
  • 26. 0"0.2"0.4"0.6"0.8"1"0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6"range&[0,1]&C2&Approach&Number&Effec9veness&Effec/veness"results"(all"runs)"Effec/veness"(mean)"Analysis•  Effectiveness (approach specific)
  • 27. Analysis•  Efficiency-time (approach specific)
  • 28. 0"0.05"0.1"0.15"0.2"0.25"0.3"0.35"0.4"0" 1" 2" 3" 4" 5" 6"C2#Approach#Number#Efficiency#(effort)#Efficiency"(effort)"(all"runs)"Efficiency"(effort)"Analysis•  Efficiency-effort (approach specific)
  • 29. Conclusions•  Overall Results00.20.40.60.81Sh. RelevantInformationSharedAwarenessCSSyncEffectivenessEfficiency (time)Efficiency (effort)Conflicted C2De-conflicted C2Coordinated C2Collaborative C2Edge C2
  • 30. Conclusions•  Overall Results–  More network-enabled C2 approaches achieve more:•  shared information,•  shared awareness and•  self-synchronization–  than less network-enabled C2 approaches–  On effectiveness and efficiency-time two clusters areformed:•  Cluster 1 (high scores): COORDINATED, COLLABORATIVEand EDGE•  Cluster 2 (low scores): CONFLICTED and DE-CONFLICTED–  On efficiency-effort three clusters are formed:•  Cluster 1 (high scores): COORDINATED•  Cluster 2 (med scores): COLLABORATIVE and EDGE•  Cluster 3 (low scores): CONFLICTED and DE-CONFLICTED
  • 31. Conclusions•  Overall Results–  Agents behave better than humans–  Agents don’t differentiate according to role–  The key condition for success is having all informationavailable (not true for humans)–  Collaborative and Edge yield similar results withagents (as opposed to human runs)•  Recommendations:–  Extend ELICIT (more dynamics, more uncertainty,decision-making and actions)–  Further enlarge human-runs dataset
  • 32. Acknowledgements•  This work was sponsored by a subcontract from Azigo, Inc. via theCenter for Edge Power of the Naval Postgraduate School•  The following people contributed decisively to its accomplishments,namelly:–  Mary Ruddy, from Azigo, Inc. the contract manager and ELICIT specialist that providedinexhaustible support from overseas and advice towards use and customization of theabELICIT platform.–  Dr. Mark Nissen, Director of the Center for Edge Power at the Naval PostgraduateSchool, for his institutional and financial support.–  SAS-065 ELICIT working team, namely, Dr. Jim Moffat, Dr. Lorraine Dodd, Dr. ReinerHuber, Dr. Tor Langsaeter, Mss. Danielle Martin Wynn and Mr. Klaus Titze. Additionallyfrom SAS-065, to Dr. Henrik Friman and Dr. Paul Phister, for their constructivefeedback and recommendations.–  ELICIT EBR team, namely, Dr. Jimmie McEver and Mss. Danielle Martin Wynn.–  Members of the Portuguese Military Academy involved in the ELICIT work, specifically,Col. Fernando Freire, LtCol. José Martins and LtCol. Paulo Nunes.–  Finally, to Dr. David Alberts (DoD CCRP) and Dr. Richard Hayes (EBR Inc.) for theirdeep scrutiny, support and exigent contributions in the whole experimentation processand ELICIT, and, more importantly, for their ubiquitous provision of inspiration and‘food-for-thought’ in C2 science and experimentation via the CCRP.
  • 33. N2C2M2 Validation using abELICIT:Design and Analysis of ELICIT runs usingsoftware agents17th ICCRTS: “Operationalizing C2 Agility”Marco Manso(marco@marcomanso.com)SAS-085 MemberPaper  ID:    003  This work results from a subcontract to Azigo, Inc.via the Center for Edge Power of the Naval Postgraduate School.Thank You for your attention !