ST12 Retro Space

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ST12 Retro Space

  1. 1. SpaceTech 12 Central Case Project Final Presentation ESA/ESTEC 01/07/2010 Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 1/71
  2. 2. The Problem: Space Debris Definition: "Space debris are all man-made objects including fragments and elements thereof, in Earth orbit or re-entering the atmosphere, that are not functional“ Source: Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee (IADC) Introduction to RetroSpace © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 2/71
  3. 3. Agenda Introduction into RetroSpace The Scope The Opportunity The Solution The Legal Framework Market System Solution Business Case Conclusion Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 3/76
  4. 4. RetroSpace Scope • $2.2 B return on a $90 M investment • Revenues exceeding $400 M per year • Protecting space assets valued over $500 B Introduction to RetroSpace • Providing public benefit © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 4/76
  5. 5. The Opportunity • Space is valuable for everybody • Value is threatened • Threat is collision with orbital debris Loss of assets Introduction to RetroSpace Creation of new fragments Cascading collision Restricted access to space © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 5/76
  6. 6. Historical Growth of Objects Number of Objects in Earth Orbit by Object Type (SSN Catalog) Growth rate 300 objects/year Introduction to RetroSpace Year Source: NASA Orbital Debris Office SSN: Space Surveillance Network ASAT: Anti-Satellite Test © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 6/76
  7. 7. “Kessler Syndrome” Introduction to RetroSpace Source: NASA Orbital Debris Office Source: NASA Orbital Debris Office LEO: Low Earth Orbit MEO: Medium Earth Orbit GEO: Geostationary Earth Orbit © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 7/76
  8. 8. Future Growth of Collisions Introduction to RetroSpace Source: NASA Orbital Debris Office PMD: Post-Mission Disposal © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 8/76
  9. 9. The Opportunity • Need: Active removal of 10-15 large objects (6-7 total tons) annually from most crowded LEO to stabilize satellite population at existing level! • No comprehensive solution • Momentum to act is building Introduction to RetroSpace LEO: Low Earth Orbit © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 9/76
  10. 10. The Mission Remove Hazardous Space Debris Using Robotics! Remove Hazardous Space Debris Using Robotics! Introduction to RetroSpace © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 10/76
  11. 11. What is RetroSpace? Profitable End-to-End System for Active Debris Removal Profitable End-to-End System for Active Debris Removal Objectives Objectives Introduction to RetroSpace Remove more than 15 large debris per year Remove more than 15 large debris per year In a safe manner In a safe manner With the consent of debris owner With the consent of debris owner © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 11/76
  12. 12. The RetroSpace Solution A fleet of spacecraft pushing debris A fleet of spacecraft pushing debris to a lower disposal orbit to a lower disposal orbit Using a vision system and Using a vision system and robotic arm for capture robotic arm for capture Introduction to RetroSpace Spiralling up and down by Spiralling up and down by electrical propulsion electrical propulsion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 12/76
  13. 13. Debris and Orbits Selected debris are large objects Selected debris are large objects • defunct spacecraft • defunct spacecraft • rocket bodies • rocket bodies ADEOS, 25 m, 3500 kg Regions of interest are Low Earth Orbits Regions of interest are Low Earth Orbits Introduction to RetroSpace H10 rocket body,10 m, 1200 kg Disposal orbit altitude is 430 km Disposal orbit altitude is 430 km © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 13/76
  14. 14. Performances Each RetroSat de-orbits 2 to 3 debris/year Each RetroSat de-orbits 2 to 3 debris/year We meet Fleet of 7 will remove 18 debris/year Fleet of 7 will remove 18 debris/year the need Revenues exceeding $400 M per year Revenues exceeding $400 M per year Introduction to RetroSpace Ready for operations in 2016 Ready for operations in 2016 Break-even in 2020 Break-even in 2020 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 14/76
  15. 15. The Legal Framework Perceived Problems Perceived Problems •• Treaties not explicitly addressing debris Treaties not explicitly addressing debris •• Control and jurisdiction stay with owners Control and jurisdiction stay with owners •• Liability stays with launching States Liability stays with launching States States/owners are allowed to States/owners are allowed to clean up their own debris Introduction to RetroSpace clean up their own debris Therefore, no prohibitions to Therefore, no prohibitions to start with active debris start with active debris removal removal © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 15/76
  16. 16. Implications for RetroSpace Within current framework Within current framework •• Seek cooperation with States and owners Seek cooperation with States and owners •• Perform safe operations Perform safe operations •• Ensure openness and visibility of activities Ensure openness and visibility of activities Potential future framework Potential future framework •• Modeled on Nairobi Convention on Wreck Modeled on Nairobi Convention on Wreck Introduction to RetroSpace Removal Removal •• Removal by external party Removal by external party •• Obligatory insurance to cover cost Obligatory insurance to cover cost Augmented with coordinating international body Augmented with coordinating international body © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 16/76
  17. 17. Agenda Introduction into RetroSpace Market Space Market Primary Source Research Target Market System Solution Business Case Conclusion Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 17/76
  18. 18. The Space Market [Sources: State of the satellite Industry Report, SIA, 2009] Public Sector Spending The Space Report 2010 – NASA 5.3% – US DOD 2.2% – ESA 18% – Russia 200% $144 M $261 Billion End-User Segment Included Private Sector Growth Led by remote sensing with 12% Market NASA: National Aeronautics & Space Administration US DOD: Unites States, Department of Defence ESA: European Space Agency © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 18/76
  19. 19. Primary Source Research 60 questionnaires NASA/DARPA Debris Workshop: – Debris is an issue – Timeframe to act is now – Large debris should be removed first – Governments even willing to pay Personal Interviews with Representatives of: – National Governments Most pressing need for – Space Agencies public sector de-orbit services: – Public & Private Operators This manifests in: – Human Space Flight • Increasing international Insurers – coordination • National implementation of IADC guidelines – Manufacturers • Public sector spending on debris removal studies – Debris Specialists – Legal Specialists Market NASA: National Aeronautics & Space Administration DARPA: Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency IADC: Inter-Agency Debris Coordination Committee © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 19/76
  20. 20. Primary Market: Risk Driven Cost - Shielding - Development - Launch ISS Community Commercial Impacts of Small Fragments Operators Threat to Astronaut Lives Negative Reputation States - “Orbital” Polluter Space Value of Assets Agencies Economic Prosperity Market ISS : International Space Station MMOD : Micrometeorites & Orbital Debris ADR: Active Debris Removal © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 20/76
  21. 21. Orbital Regimes in LEO at Risk Inclination Altitude Active Inactive Rocket TOTAL [km] Satellites Satellites Bodies Debris Regime A (SSO) 99° ± 1° 800 ± 100 71 91 48 139 Regime B 82° ± 1° 1000 ± 100 3 160 157 317 Regime C 71° ± 1° 850 ± 100 1 40 23 63 Source: Heiner Klinkrad, Space Debris Office, ESA Active Satellites in SSO Debris in SSO LEO: Low Earth Orbit Market SSO: Sun-Synchronous CIS: Confederation of Independent States USSR: Union of Soviet Socialist Republics PPP: Public Private Partnerships © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 21/76
  22. 22. Market Projection Assumptions • Conservative Launch Projection Scenario • Stagnation at a Yearly Average of 22 Launches • Rapidly Increasing Implementation of Debris Mitigation Guidelines (up to 95% in the next 10 years), for: • Satellites • Rocket Bodies • Satellite Lifetime: 7 Years on Average Projected Launches into Sun-Synchronous Regimes 30 Satellite Launches / Year 25 20 15 Trend 10 Assessment of Planned 5 Launches [DLR] 0 Market 27 29 33 35 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 31 20 20 20 20 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 DLR: German Aerospace Center © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 22/76
  23. 23. Market Projection 500 Total Number of Debris in Sun-Synchronous Regimes 450 Nummber of Objects 400 No Active Debris Removal 350 300 250 200 15 Objects / Year 10 / Year 150 100 50 0 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 • Conservative Scenarios • Removal of 15 debris per year • Many years of work for RetroSpace • Huge Market Market © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 23/76
  24. 24. Agenda Introduction into RetroSpace Market System Solution System Architecture Mission Scenario Platform Launch System Business Case Conclusion Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 24/76
  25. 25. System Architecture DEBRIS RetroSat System Solution POC: Payload Operations Center MOC: Mission Operations Center GSS: Ground Station System TT&C: Telemetry, Tracking and Command © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 25/76
  26. 26. Ground Station System • Single Ground Station Typical contact times during passes between 3 and 15 minutes. • Strip of Multiple Ground Stations Fairbanks, Svalbard, Kiruna and Fucino can provide every day at least 4 continuous contacts longer than 20 minutes. System Solution © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 26/76
  27. 27. Concept of Operations Operational phases • Command from mission planning • Rendezvous with selected debris and inspection (15 days) • Command of robotic arm and capture debris (14 minutes) • Analyze and stabilize the newly formed composite and move to the disposal orbit (80 days) • Release the debris, wait for next debris opportunity and System Solution return to the region of interest (65 days) • Debris orbit decays over time Total: 160 days and burns up on re-entry © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 27/76
  28. 28. Mission Planning • A service to provide characterization of the selected debris: • Regularly updated orbital elements and attitude • Size, shape and end-of-life mass • Available info from manufacturer • Possible service providers: • US Space Surveillance Network • ESA – Space Situational Awareness System Solution • Commercial providers (e.g. Center for Space Standards & Innovation) Third stage of Ariane 4 (H10): a common debris in the Sun-Synchronous orbit region. US: United States Source: Arianespace ESA: European Space Agency © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 28/76
  29. 29. Debris Orbital Parameters Analysis • Inclination [98o – 100o] • Altitude [700 km - 900 km] • Right Ascension of Ascending Node (RAAN) [0o - 360o] RAAN distribution in the selected region 14 12 Number of objects 10 8 6 4 2 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 RAAN [deg] System Solution • Propellant to go from one debris to the following depends mainly on RAAN change required • Removal sequence must be designed accordingly RAAN: Right Ascension of Ascending Node © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 29/76
  30. 30. From Launch to Orbit Injection • The orbit plane of the first debris in the sequence is reached by direct injection by the launcher • Launch takes place when the launch site crosses the first debris orbital plane: twice per day • An acceptable deviation of ±1.12 deg in RAAN results in a daily 9 minute launch window System Solution Launch and orbit injection sequence [Source: Jet Propulsion Laboratory] RAAN: Right Ascension of Ascending Node © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 30/76
  31. 31. Phasing Strategy • Injection of RetroSat into an orbit 20 km below the debris orbit • Reduction of the phase angle between RetroSat and the debris (1 deg/hour) • All maneuvers controlled from the ground • Phasing ends with the acquisition of the Hold Point 0 (HP0) System Solution © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 31/76
  32. 32. Debris Spin Status • Still or very low tumble rates • Theory: Magnetic drag stops residual tumble within a year • Visual observations from PPAS databse agree • Possible orbital resonance with Lorentz force (low relative tumble rate <0.1deg/s) System Solution COSPAR: Committee on Space Research PPAS: Database of Photometric Periods of Artificial Satellites Note: Numbers represent the time in seconds between flashes or peaks in magnitude. © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 32/76
  33. 33. Rendezvous Hold Point 1 (HP1) Hold Point 0 (HP0) Debris location •Transition to medium range sensors •Transition to relative navigation error ≈ 1km •Verify location and state •Verify heading and range HP2 2 HP1 4 HP0 6 V-bar (km) 0.5 Location error Hold Point 2 (HP2) reducing 1 •Transition to close range sensors •Inspect debris •Verify ID & State System Solution •Determine final approach plan R-bar (km) © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 33/76
  34. 34. Capture L • Manual Capture: – Cameras systems • Visual • Infrared – LIDAR – GPS • Rocket Body Capture – Rocket nozzle – Inter-stage System Solution mounting ring – Launch adapter LIDAR: Light Detection And Ranging GPS: Global Positioning System © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 34/76
  35. 35. Robotic Arm DLR DEOS Robotic Arm Capabilities Length 3m Mass 45kg Degrees of Freedom 7 joints system Max. Joint Rate 180°/sec Max. Bearing Torque 120Nm Grasping Torque / Joint 10Nm Simulated Spin Rate 6° / sec Simulated Grasp Mass 7 tons System Solution Source: DLR Dimensions in mm DLR: German Aerospace Center DEOS: Deutsche Orbitale Servicing Mission © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 35/76
  36. 36. Capture & Stabilization System Solution Clip courtesy of DLR Institute of Robotics and Mechatronics DLR: German Aerospace Center © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 36/76
  37. 37. Composite Operations • Re-orient for retro burn • Calibrate • Orientate for composite pitch over response to • Spin rate • Pitch over for test burn • Center of mass retro burn • Lock arm • Thrust line • Verify • Velocity vector orientation • Dynamic De-Orbiting responses Test Orientate Control Capture System Solution 18 h 18 h 18 h 12 h 24 h 24 h 12 h 24 h 12 h 6h 6h 6h DAY 1 DAY 2 DAY 3 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 37/76
  38. 38. Disposal Orbit Trade-Off Constraints 1. The decay time shall be less than 25 years 2. No risk to human space Area-Mass ratio flights 3. The debris shall leave the region within 1 year Computation obtained using NASA Debris Assessment Software (DAS) ISS altitude Disposal Orbit Altitude Lifetime Area to Mass ratio System Solution (km) (years) (m2/kg) 430 <10 0.001 (Worst case) NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration ISS: International Space Station © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 38/76
  39. 39. Composite De-Orbiting • Using electric propulsion RetroSat spirals down the composite to the circular 430 km disposal orbit • Typical time to de-orbit a debris object of 500 kg is approximately 80 days, consuming nearly 32 kg of Xenon propellant • The electric propulsion is switched off during the eclipse periods for power budget reasons • Eclipse duration is never higher than 39% of orbital period System Solution © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 39/76
  40. 40. Release Strategy • The release is operated from the ground • RetroSat controls the composite attitude so that the debris is in nadir direction • After the end-effectors opening, dynamics naturally separates RetroSat from the object System Solution © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 40/76
  41. 41. …To the Next Debris • The next debris RAAN is reached taking advantage of the differential nodal regression due to the two different altitudes • Typical waiting time before starting a new transfer is 25 days … Ronf • The low thrust propulsion … RAAN … Ronf is started again when the … RAAN RAAN difference can be covered during the transfer System Solution RAAN: Right Ascension of Ascending Node Ronf: Onomatopoetic word that imitates the sound of a snoring lion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 41/76
  42. 42. RetroSat RetroSat Technical Details Lifetime 7 years Payload Robotic arm, cameras and LIDAR Configuration 3-axis stabilized satellite 2 m x 1.8 m x 2 m Dry Mass 680 kg Wet Mass 1,296 kg Propulsion Electric Propulsion 5 thrusters mounted on gimbals Electrical 50V regulated bus Power Gallium Arsenide (GaAs) solar array 9m2 Lithium-Ion battery 2.3 kW (Beginning of Life) Attitude control Pitch, roll and yaw maneuvers System Solution Precise orbit determination Thermal control Passive with heaters Telemetry & S-band up and down links Command Telecommand Data Rate: 256 kbps Telemetry Data Rate: 3.6 Mbps © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 42/76
  43. 43. Satellite Configuration Robotic Arm GPS antenna EP Thrusters ‐Z LIDAR +X ‐Y Cameras System Solution S-band Antennas GPS: Global Positioning System EP: Electrical Propulsion Solar Array LIDAR: Light Detection And Ranging © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 43/76
  44. 44. RetroSat Functional Diagram Internal Redundancy Non Redundant Cold/Hot Redundant Power lines Can Bus System Solution AOCS: Attitude and Orbit Control System GPS: Global Positioning System © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 44/76
  45. 45. Launcher Selection Drivers Flexible Launch Strategy • Up to 2 tons Single Dual Triple • Direct launch into SSO • Low cost • Available in 2016 System Solution LM-4B Soyuz Falcon 9 Cluster launch of 2-3 RetroSats and/or dedicated single launch Cluster launch of 2-3 RetroSats and/or dedicated single launch SSO: Sun Synchronous Orbit LM-4B: Long March 4B © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 45/76
  46. 46. Design and Development Plan (1/2) PDR: Preliminary Design Review RetroSat Design & Development Plan CDR: Critical Design Review QR: Qualification Review AR: Acceptance Review ORR: Operational Readiness Review PDR FRR: Flight Readiness Review CRR: Commissioning Result Review CDR Phase A/BPreliminary Definition QR AR ORR RetroSat Phase C Detailed Definition Disposal FRR CRR Qualification/Production Phase D / Verification Phase E Operational Phase Phase F Launch Demonstrator System Solution 2013 2015 2016 2011 2021 2023 2022 2024 2014 2010 2018 2020 2012 2017 2019 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 46/76
  47. 47. Design and Development Plan (2/2) • Design based on flight proven technology • Robotic arm – TRL level 8, in flight demonstration in 2015 (DEOS current launch date) DLR EPOS Facility – DEOS configuration Spacecraft Model Philosophy • Avionics Test bench • PFM (Proto Flight Model) • FM (Flight Model) Critical Rendezvous & Capturing Operations Test and Verification System Solution • DLR EPOS (*) Facility TRL: Technology Readiness Level DLR: Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt EPOS: European Proximity Operations Simulator DEOS: Deutsche Orbitale Servicing Mission © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 47/76
  48. 48. Agenda Introduction into RetroSpace Market System Solution Business Case Business Environment Revenue Financing Conclusion Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 48/76
  49. 49. Business Environment Financiers Suppliers • Private investors / founders • Satellite providers • Strategic partner • Operation service providers (satellite manufacturer) • Facility & service leasing • Guaranteed public bond Customers Operational Interfaces Business Case • Intergovernmental body • Support services • Commercial • Debris owner © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 49/76
  50. 50. Phased Business Approach – (1/4) Completion of: • Strategic partnering • Lobbying for bond and fund implementation • Acquisition of flagship customer • Preparation of service level agreements (with service providers) Funding: • Private investors / founders • Strategic partner (satellite manufacturer) • Guaranteed public bond Development & Production Business Case 2013 2015 2021 2023 2029 2031 2011 2017 2019 2025 2027 2033 2035 2014 2022 2030 2032 2016 2018 2020 2024 2026 2028 2034 2012 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 50/76
  51. 51. Phased Business Approach – (2/4) • Establishment of dedicated fund • First space debris removals • Initial operations Proof-of- Concept Development & Production Business Case 2013 2015 2021 2023 2029 2031 2011 2017 2019 2025 2027 2033 2035 2014 2022 2030 2032 2016 2018 2020 2024 2026 2028 2034 2012 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 51/76
  52. 52. Phased Business Approach – (3/4) • Full deployment of RetroSat satellite fleet • Gradual increase of capabilities up to 18 debris / year • Routine debris removal operations • Extension of customer basis towards commercial • Preparation for new business lines Proof-of- Concept Operational Phase Development & Production Business Case 2013 2015 2021 2023 2029 2031 2011 2017 2019 2025 2027 2033 2035 2014 2022 2030 2032 2016 2018 2020 2024 2026 2028 2034 2012 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 52/76
  53. 53. Phased Business Approach – (4/4) • Sales of RetroSat satellites • Damage inspection missions • Space-tug service • Provision of secondary payload hosting capabilities Service Extension Phase Proof-of- Concept Operational Phase Development & Production Business Case 2013 2015 2021 2023 2029 2031 2011 2017 2019 2025 2027 2033 2035 2014 2022 2030 2032 2016 2018 2020 2024 2026 2028 2034 2012 © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 53/76
  54. 54. Deployment Scenario Dual launch Single launch Primary satellite Replacement satellite Extended Services Orbital Region B 85 s altitude=1000 km lite i=82° debris removed tel Sa Orbital Region A altitude=800km 218 t i=99° debris en removed cem pla Re RetroSat Demonstrator Business Case 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2034 2012 2014 2016 2032 2018 YEAR 24 satellites in 20 years © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 54/76
  55. 55. Space Debris Removal Fund (SDRF) • International Governance Launch • RetroSpace proposes and will lobby for the Provider creation of a Space Debris Removal Fund (SDRF) Launch  • Source of funding for space debris removal Levy Launcher State • RetroSpace is uniquely positioned to become the preferred de-orbit service provider – First to market Contributions International – End-to-end solution SDRF Organization Fund  – High TRL supervision Debris  removal  fee Business Case SDRF: Space Debris Removal Fund TRL: Technical Readiness Level © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 55/76
  56. 56. Sources of Funding for the SDRF • Governments will pay Government Owners of Debris – $100 M to $200 M per year Satellite Box Score Rocket – Contributions proportional Bodies & to ownership of debris Country Payloads Debris Total China 78 2695 2773 • Levy on launch fees CIS 1379 3036 4415 – $500 / kg ESA 38 36 74 • Less than 0.5% of the annual France 49 331 380 India 36 111 147 global public space budgets Japan 105 69 174 US 1098 3161 4259 Other 425 96 521 Source: The Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Vol. 13, Issue 1 January 2009 Business Case SDRF: Space Debris Removal Fund © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 56/76
  57. 57. Pricing - Space Debris Removal • Price per piece of debris removed – Fee charged for successful debris removal – $15 M / piece of debris • Primary source of revenue for RetroSpace will be the debris removal service Business Case © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 57/76
  58. 58. Additional Sources of Revenue • Sale of RetroSat Satellites – Sell units to selected customers to conduct de-orbit of their own satellites • “Space Tug” Service – Use robotic arm to capture and relocate other satellites • Damage Inspection Service – Use visualization system to inspect other satellites • Extend Services to GEO • Secondary Payload Business Case GEO: Geostationary Earth Orbit © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 58/76
  59. 59. Revenue Projection 500 Further Growth 450 Potential Other 400 RetroSat Sales Debris Removal 350 Revenue [M$] 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 Business Case 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 Year © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 59/76
  60. 60. Financing Strategy 350 Public Bond Total financing need: Total financing need: 300 Equity (Investors) 2011 2020: $390 M 2011 --2020: $390 M Equity (Strategic Partner) 250 Investment [M$] Investment Need •• CAPEX //OPEX: $250 M CAPEX OPEX: $250 M 200 •• Liquidity: Liquidity: $140 M $140 M 150 300 100 Satellite Unit Cost 50 70 [M$] 0 20 Satellite 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 135.5 Development Year 1st Unit Cost 66.5 2011: 2011: $20 M --Founders //Financial Investor $20 M Founders Financial Investor 2012: 2012: $70 M --Strategic Investor $70 M Strategic Investor Additional Units 52.7 2013: 2013: $300 M --“Clean Skies Bond”: $300 M “Clean Skies Bond”: •• 10-year public bond (5% p.a.) 10-year public bond (5% p.a.) Business Case Launch Cost 18.0 •• Issued by financial institution Issued by financial institution •• Guaranteed by international Guaranteed by international Insurance Cost 13.7 governments governments CAPEX: Capital Expenditures OPEX: Operating Expenditures © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 60/76
  61. 61. Cash Flow 500 Total Revenues CAPEX 400 COGS OPEX 300 Revenue Debris Removal Free Cash Flow Bond Issue 200 [M$] 100 0 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 -100 -200 Year Bond Repayment Total CAPEX: $2190 M Total Revenues: $5.7 B Business Case Total CAPEX: $2190 M Total Revenues: $5.7 B Total OPEX: Total OPEX: $641 M $641 M Debris Removal: Debris Removal: $4.7 B $4.7 B Total COGS: Total COGS: $158 M $158 M Extended Services: Extended Services: $1.0 B $1.0 B CAPEX: Capital Expenditures OPEX: Operating Expenditures COGS: Cost of Goods Sold © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 61/76
  62. 62. Financial Performance 500 Revenues 400 Net Income Cash Flow (operating) 300 Million US$ 200 100 Payback Period: 10 years 0 Time to Profit: 6 years -100 Business Case 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2025 2026 2027 2034 2035 2019 2028 2029 2030 2011 2012 2013 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2031 2032 2033 Year © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 62/76
  63. 63. 25 Year Financial Summary Founders Founders •• Minority stake in RetroSpace Minority stake in RetroSpace •• Multiple exit options Multiple exit options Financial Investor (2017) Financial Investor (2017) •• Capital gain: $80 M Capital gain: $80 M •• Multiple: 5 Multiple: 5 •• IRR: 31% p.a. IRR: 31% p.a. Satellite Manufacturer Satellite Manufacturer •• Profit from satellite sales: $130 M Profit from satellite sales: $130 M •• Majority stake in RetroSpace Majority stake in RetroSpace •• Dividends from 2020 onwards Dividends from 2020 onwards Business Case General public (2023) General public (2023) •• Interest income: $150 M Interest income: $150 M IRR: Internal Rate of Return © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 63/76
  64. 64. NextGen PPP Rationale • Creation of public good with commercial efficiency • Creation of public good with commercial efficiency • Lifecycle-based phased approach • Lifecycle-based phased approach • Exploitation of partner’s capabilities & strengths • Exploitation of partner’s capabilities & strengths • Apportionment of risk and finance geared to • Apportionment of risk and finance geared to • Investors • Investors • Private Industry • Private Industry • Public sector • Public sector • General public • General public • Balanced risk-reward ratio for all partners • Balanced risk-reward ratio for all partners Private Investors Industry Business Case International General Governments Organization Public NextGen PPP: Next Generation Public-Private Partnership © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 64/76
  65. 65. Global Economic Summary Private Investments Economic Benefit Government Tax Income $701 M Economic Benefit: $3.5 B Insurance Companies $320 M Revenues: $2.8 B Launch Service Provider $432 M Operator Company $663 M Satellite Manufacturer $70 M Satellite Manufacturer Business Case $1436 M Financial Investor $20 M © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 65/76
  66. 66. Agenda Introduction into RetroSpace Market System Solution Business Case Conclusion Summary Closing Thoughts Acknowledgements Agenda © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 66/76
  67. 67. RetroSpace Summary (1/2) • Core Business: • Providing a public service • Primary Customer: • Space Agencies / Governments • Public-Private Partnership: • Strategic manufacturing partner • “Clean Skies Bond“ • Revenues exceeding $400 M per year Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 67/76
  68. 68. RetroSpace Summary (2/2) • End-to-end system • Fleet of 7 • Robotic capture • Electrical propulsion • Operational in 2016 Business Rendezvous, Grab, and De-orbit Launch Removal of 15+ large debris per year Removal of 15+ large debris per year Reducing risk to space assets Reducing risk to space assets Securing future access Securing future access Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 68/76
  69. 69. Risk Assessment • International Cooperation • Agencies must agree to fund this solution collaboratively • Clarity of Ownership • Consent required from debris owners • Maturity of Technology • Readiness levels are high (some details to iron out) Low Risk Low Risk Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 69/76
  70. 70. RetroSpace is the Solution! • Responsive • Bringing today’s technologies together • Effective • Preserving Earth orbit into the future • Affordable • Achievable funding requirements • Profitable • Attractive returns for all parties Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 70/76
  71. 71. RetroSpace Focus • Lobbying for international coordination • Securing key partnerships • Investing in key technology Be part of the solution! Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 71/76
  72. 72. RetroSpace Restoring Space… 2010 2030 2040 2050 …to the way it was Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 72/76
  73. 73. RetroSpace is… (1/2) Wolfgang Jung Frank de Bruin Susanne Wagenbach Marco Castronuovo Simon Hyde Francesco Longo Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 73/76
  74. 74. RetroSpace is… (2/2) Monica Martinez Fernandez Fabio Covello Kristina Springborn Martin Lösch Shawn Mason James Geary Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 74/76
  75. 75. Acknowledgments • Central Case Project sponsor: • Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt e.V. • Delft University of Technology • ESA ESTEC • Our Coaches • Jon & Jon Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 75/76
  76. 76. Thank You! Any questions? Conclusion © SpaceTech 12. Do not reproduce and distribute without permission 76/76

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