New Kid on the Block The rise and fall of Google  Andy Kessler
Start here
Rules are established to create order and maintain profits for incumbents. Examples of rules are: social mores, profession...
Cheaper technology suddenly allows for the bypassing of the rules.
Incumbents are fat and dumb and happy with current monopolistic profits and their general situation, so they bad-mouth any...
Fringe players emerge to use this ever cheaper technology to simply ignore the rules.
Fringe companies attract venture capital since there are great profits to be made by underselling the incumbents.
Incumbents are in denial until their profits are really threatened and/or market share begins to erode meaningfully.
Chaos ensues; fringe players are threatened with lawsuits, government regulation, public shaming, etc.
Growth at the fringe accelerates, as it is the right way to do business using new technology.
Incumbents co-opt the fringe, or fringe players become the new incumbents and seek to establish new rules...
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Disruptive tech lifecycle: Newkidontheblock

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Kesslers law is a rendition of Schumpeters Concept of 'creative destruction'. It tells you why Microsoft will try to backstab Ubuntu... :)

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Disruptive tech lifecycle: Newkidontheblock

  1. 1. New Kid on the Block The rise and fall of Google Andy Kessler
  2. 2. Start here
  3. 3. Rules are established to create order and maintain profits for incumbents. Examples of rules are: social mores, professional licenses, government regulation, locked-up distribution channels.
  4. 4. Cheaper technology suddenly allows for the bypassing of the rules.
  5. 5. Incumbents are fat and dumb and happy with current monopolistic profits and their general situation, so they bad-mouth any new stuff which threatens their incumbency or profits, or both.
  6. 6. Fringe players emerge to use this ever cheaper technology to simply ignore the rules.
  7. 7. Fringe companies attract venture capital since there are great profits to be made by underselling the incumbents.
  8. 8. Incumbents are in denial until their profits are really threatened and/or market share begins to erode meaningfully.
  9. 9. Chaos ensues; fringe players are threatened with lawsuits, government regulation, public shaming, etc.
  10. 10. Growth at the fringe accelerates, as it is the right way to do business using new technology.
  11. 11. Incumbents co-opt the fringe, or fringe players become the new incumbents and seek to establish new rules...
  12. 12. Restart from the top ▲
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