Disruptive tech lifecycle: Newkidontheblock
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Disruptive tech lifecycle: Newkidontheblock

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Kesslers law is a rendition of Schumpeters Concept of 'creative destruction'. It tells you why Microsoft will try to backstab Ubuntu... :)

Kesslers law is a rendition of Schumpeters Concept of 'creative destruction'. It tells you why Microsoft will try to backstab Ubuntu... :)

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  • 1. New Kid on the Block The rise and fall of Google Andy Kessler
  • 2. Start here
  • 3. Rules are established to create order and maintain profits for incumbents. Examples of rules are: social mores, professional licenses, government regulation, locked-up distribution channels.
  • 4. Cheaper technology suddenly allows for the bypassing of the rules.
  • 5. Incumbents are fat and dumb and happy with current monopolistic profits and their general situation, so they bad-mouth any new stuff which threatens their incumbency or profits, or both.
  • 6. Fringe players emerge to use this ever cheaper technology to simply ignore the rules.
  • 7. Fringe companies attract venture capital since there are great profits to be made by underselling the incumbents.
  • 8. Incumbents are in denial until their profits are really threatened and/or market share begins to erode meaningfully.
  • 9. Chaos ensues; fringe players are threatened with lawsuits, government regulation, public shaming, etc.
  • 10. Growth at the fringe accelerates, as it is the right way to do business using new technology.
  • 11. Incumbents co-opt the fringe, or fringe players become the new incumbents and seek to establish new rules...
  • 12. Restart from the top ▲