Demographic changes in Kerala
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Demographic changes in Kerala Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Demographic Changes and Emerging Issues: Vision 2030 Dr. Irudaya Rajan, Professor, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum and Vice President, KEA
  • 2. Demographic Profile of Kerala and India, 1961 Indicators Population Size Population Growth Rate (1951-1961) Population Density Sex Ratio Child Sex Ratio Female Literacy Rate Age at Marriage for Females CBR CDR Average Family Size Kerala India 16.9 Million 43.9 Crore +24.76 435 1022 971 38.9 20.2 31.1 9.0 5.9 +21.51 142 941 976 15.4 16.3 41.7 22.8 5.5
  • 3. Demographic Profile of Kerala and India, 2011 Indicators Kerala India 33.3 Million 1.2 Billion Population Growth Rate (2001-2011) +4.86 +17.64 Population Density Sex Ratio Female Literacy Rate Age at Marriage for Females CBR (2011) Percentage of elderly (2011) Total Fertility Rate Life Expectancy at Birth 859 1084 91.98 22.7 14.7 12.55 1.7 74 382 940 65.46 18.3 22.1 8.58 2.7 63 Population Size
  • 4. Crude Birth Rate Source: Sample Registration Survey (SRS), India, 1971-2009 Crude Death Rate 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 Demographic Transition in Kerala 35.0 30.0 25.0 20.0 15.0 10.0 5.0 0.0
  • 5. Population Growth Rate of Kerala over the Last 100 years 30 Growth Rate 25 20 15 10 5 22.82 21.85 24.76 16.04 11.75 26.29 19.24 14.32 9.43 9.16 4.86 0 Year
  • 6. Decadal Growth Rate by Districts Pathanamthitta Idukki Alappuzha Kottayam Kollam Thiruvananthapuram Wayanad Kannur Thrissur Ernakulam Palakkad Kozhikode Kasaragod Malappuram Kerala -3.0 -1.8 0.9 1.1 1.9 2.1 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.7 7.4 7.2 8.6 13.4 4.9
  • 7. Population Density Thiruvananthapuram Alappuzha Kozhikode Malappuram Ernakulam Kollam Thrissur Kottayam Kannur Kasaragod Palakkad Pathanamthitta Wayanad Idukki Kerala 1508 1504 1316 1157 1072 1061 1031 895 852 657 627 452 384 255 860
  • 8. TFR <=1.5 in 2011- 29 districts State District Udupi Karnataka Kolkata West Bengal Pathanamthitta Kerala The Nilgiris Tamil Nadu New Delhi Delhi Chikmagalur Karnataka Alappuzha, Idukki, Kollam, Kottayam, Thiruvananthapuram Kerala Maharashtra Mumbai, Sindhudurg Chennai, Coimbatore, Erode, Kanniyakumari Tamil Nadu Andhra Pradesh Karimnagar, Krishna North Goa Goa Dakshina Kannada Hassan Kodagu Mandya Karnataka Ernakulam Thrissur Kerala Namakkal Thanjavur Thiruvarur Tamil Nadu TFR 2011 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 8
  • 9. Districtwise Total Fertility Rate 2011 Pathanamthitta Thiruvananthapuram Kollam Alappuzha Kottayam Idukki Ernakulam Thrissur Palakkad Kozhikode Kannur Wayanad Kasaragod Malappuram Kerala 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.7 1.8 2.2 1.6
  • 10. Young Age and Old Age composition in Kerala and India India Kerala Years 0-14 60+ 0-14 60+ 1961 40.9 5.6 43.3 5.1 1971 42.3 6 40.8 6.2 1981 39.9 6.5 35.8 7.5 1991 37.5 6.8 30.4 8.9 2001 33.5 7.5 26.1 10.5
  • 11. Age Pyramid for Kerala, 1961 and 2011 70+ 80+ 65-69 75-79 60-64 70-74 55-59 65-69 50-54 60-64 55-59 45-49 50-54 40-44 45-49 35-39 Female 30-34 Male 40-44 Males 35-39 Females 25-29 30-34 20-24 25-29 20-24 15-19 15-19 10-14 10-14 5-9 5-9 0-4 0-4 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 10 5 0 5 10
  • 12. Expected Cross over Between Young and the Aged in Kerala 14.0 Population in Million 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 1961 1971 1981 1991 2001 2011 2021 2031 2041 2051 Year 0-14 60+
  • 13. Expectation of Life at Birth Kerala • 2011 – Expectation of Life at Birth – Male – 72 – Female – 76 • 2030 – Expectation of Life at Birth – Male – 75.2 – Female – 78.6
  • 14. Proportion of Elderly to the Total Population in Kerala (Projected) 60+ Total Male Female 2001 10.5 9.6 11.3 2011 12.6 11.8 13.2 2021 16.7 15.9 17.3 2031 22.0 20.6 23.4 2041 28.2 25.9 30.4 2051 34.3 32.1 36.4
  • 15. Other Emerging Issues • International Migration • Internal Migration • Replacement Migration • Return Migration • Remittances