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2010 04-10 future-of_wireless-drobot-v7-printable (1)

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  • 1. The Future of WirelessAdam DrobotPresident, Advanced Technology Solutionsand CTO TelcordiaPiscataway, NJ 08854, USAadrobot@telcordia.com Keynote Talk IEEE Wireless Communications Networks Conference – WCNC 2010 19 April 2010 Sydney, Australia www.telcordia.com www.argreenhouse.com
  • 2. Abstract Starting with the early 1990’s, almost from nothing, a set of global networks were created with stunning speed and equally stunning commitment of capital – These networks and servers reach over 3 Billion people on the planet – They account for well over half the business activity of service providers – Mobile services involve components touching many technologies, which are on exponential trajectories – We have seen an explosion of devices, services, and applications – Consumers and users of these services have often surprised us with what they will spend money on – The impact on people’s lives and institutions has been profound Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 2
  • 3. Abstract (cont’d) We are about to embark on the next chapter of the mobile revolution where the global impact on the way we live and interact with each other will be even more dramatic – New unifying infrastructure build around LTE and IP – Extension to direct communication between devices – A driving force in economic growth around the world affecting all industries, governments, and individuals – Change in people’s life styles – Changes in who the players are for us in the industry – A global shift in where research and development will occur Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 3
  • 4. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 4
  • 5. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 5
  • 6. Adoption: US Wireless Subscribers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 6
  • 7. Adoption: Consumer Adoption Curves, US Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 7
  • 8. Wireless Adoption Milestones  2007: Wireless-only households exceed wireline-only households in US  2008: ICT* is 7% of US GDP and still growing!  2009: Half the world uses cell phones* Information-communication-technology producing industries(ICT): Consists of computer and electronic products; publishingindustries (includes software); information and data processingservices; and computer systems design and related services.(US BEA) Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 8
  • 9. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 9
  • 10. Wireless-only Households in Canadaand the US Source: CRTC: Convergence Policy, Policy Development & Research, Feb 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 10
  • 11. Demographic Groups Most Likely tobe Cellular Only% Cellphone-Only, Apr 2007 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 11
  • 12. Percentage of US Households withoutLandline Telephones Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 12
  • 13. Projected North American BusinessUse of Landline and Cell Phones Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 13
  • 14. Phone Behavior by Age in Single-PersonHouseholds Source: Mediamark Research Inc. Survey of the American Consumer (Waves 56) Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 14
  • 15. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 15
  • 16. Global Trends: World View over 14 Years  153 countries, 1995 – 2008  Fixed Telephone Lines per 100 population  Mobile Subscriptions per 100 population  Internet Users per 100 population  Broadband Subscribers per 100 population Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 16
  • 17. Global Trends – Fixed Telephone Lines Fixed Telephone Lines Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 17
  • 18. Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Fixed Lines per 100 pop, 2008 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 GDP per Capita, 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 18
  • 19. Global TrendsFixed Telephone Lines per 100 pop. in 2008 Germany Canada Fixed Lines per 100 pop, 2008 80 U.K. Taiwan Switz. 70 Malta Iceland 60 Korea Sweden China Lux. 50 Russia U.S. 40 Viet Nam Norway 30 Australia India New Zealand 20 Myanmar Qatar 10 Japan Kuwait 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Niger Burundi GDP per Capita, 2008 Eq. Guinea Papua New Guinea South Africa Malaysia Size shows population Indonesia Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 19
  • 20. Global Trends – Mobile Subscriptions Mobile Subscriptions Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 20
  • 21. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Mobile Subs per 100 pop, 2008 200 150 100 50 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Size shows population GDP per Capita, 2008 Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 21
  • 22. Global Trends Mobile Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Mobile Subs per 100 pop, 2008 Estonia Bahrain Italy U.A.E 200 Lithuania U.K. Russia Bulgaria Lux. 150 Ukraine Qatar Indonesia Switz. 100 Norway Viet Nam Australia. Gambia New Zealand 50 U.S. Niger Korea Burundi Japan Canada Taiwan 0 Eq. Guinea China 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 India Size shows population GDP per Capita, 2008 Papua New Guinea Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 22
  • 23. Global Trends – Internet Users Internet Users Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 23
  • 24. Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 100 Internet Users per 100 90 80 pop, 2008 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Size shows population GDP per Capita, 2008 Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 24
  • 25. Global Trends Internet Users per 100 pop. in 2008 Iceland Canada Holland Sweden 100 Internet Users per 100 Japan Norway 90 Taiwan Switz. 80 Korea Lux. pop, 2008 70 Malaysia U.S. Australia 60 New Zealand 50 China Spain 40 Italy Viet Nam 30 Qatar 20 Kuwait Burundi 10 Russia Portugal 0 100 1,000 India Indonesia 10,000 100,000 Niger Eq. Guinea Size shows population GDP per Capita, 2008 Papua New Guinea Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 25
  • 26. Global Trends – Broadband Subscribers Broadband Subscribers Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 26
  • 27. Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Broadband Subs per 100 40 35 pop, 2008 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 GDP per Capita, 2008 Size shows population Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 27
  • 28. Global Trends Broadband Subscribers per 100 pop. in 2008 Holland Sweden Denmark Broadband Subs per 100 Korea Canada 40 Switz. U.K. Iceland New Zealand Japan 35 Norway Lux. pop, 2008 30 Taiwan Germany 25 Australia 20 U.S. China Chile Russia Spain 15 India Italy 10 Viet Nam Portugal Russia 5 Qatar 0 100 1,000 10,000 100,000 Kuwait Niger MyanmarGDP per Capita, 2008 Eq. Guinea Size shows population Indonesia Source: Telcordia. Data: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 28
  • 29. Global Trends – Over 14 Years Continuing… Data source: ITU World Telecommunication Indicators 2010 Fixed Mobile Internet Broadband Continue Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 29
  • 30. Global Trends – Mobile Penetration byRegion – 2007 & 2008 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 30
  • 31. Global Trends: Adoption byDeveloping Nations Source: Wireless Communications – Q2 2006 Topical Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 31
  • 32. Global Trends: Wired vs. WirelessCrossover Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 32
  • 33. ARPU -- Data as % of Total, by Country Source: Chetan Sharma 2008 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 33
  • 34. Wireless Data ARPU for Major Operators Worldwide Source: Chetan Sharma 2008 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 34
  • 35. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 35
  • 36. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 Pre-cellular 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 36
  • 37. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 1996 (red = new in 1996) 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 37
  • 38. US Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 2010 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 38
  • 39. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 Pre-cellular 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 39
  • 40. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 1996 (red = new in 1996) 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 40
  • 41. Australian Mobile Antenna Sites – 1982 to 2010 2010 1982 1996 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 41
  • 42. Cellular Sites in the US – 1985-2009 Source: CTIA Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 42
  • 43. Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 43 57,143 Dec-09Mobile Sites in Australia – 1985-2009 Data source: ACMA 52,904 Dec-08 47,782 Dec-07 44,644 Dec-06 41,030 Dec-05 37,890 Dec-04 35,252 Dec-03 32,770 Dec-02 30,687 Dec-01 28,575 Dec-00 26,486 Dec-99 24,038 Dec-98 Mobile Sites 21,592 Dec-97 18,399 Dec-96 15,254 Dec-95 13,173 Dec-94 10,520 Dec-93 8,328 Dec-92 6,897 Dec-91 5,548 Dec-90 4,175 Dec-89 3,262 Dec-88 2,198 Dec-87 1,285 Dec-86 1,040 Dec-85 0 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000
  • 44. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 44
  • 45. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 45
  • 46. Mobile TransformationsThe 5 Year Cycles ?? Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 46
  • 47. Mobile Transformations –Looking Forward Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 47
  • 48. Cellphone Milestones BlackBerry First SmartPhone -- touch First TV ad screen, pager, calculator, calendar, fax, e-mail Open LG Source OS IBM Simon Android Motorola In movies Wi-Fi-cellular iDEN digital Sony- handoff Ericsson iPhone 1986 Polyphonic App Store Ringtones Nokia Sharp – first 1.9 trillion CameraPhone StarTAC text msgs Motorola Vibrates, in 2007 “brick” Flips open Treo QWERTY kbd Number Wi-Fi Texting Nokia portability cellular Mp3 hybrid GPS player Nokia Kyocera E-911 AMPS trial Games 500 billion SmartPhone BlackBerryPrototype In Chicago text msgs Patent Sat- 2001 in 2004 1975 Concept: Phone 109 1946 1966 GPRS Color Nokia 2002: More mobile subs 250 billion text phones msgs in 2001 digital Bluetooth M I95cl than wired, worldwide Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 48
  • 49. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 49
  • 50. Digitization – Computing & Storage Computing Storage 10 5 Grid Computing Latent Semantic Indexing Areal Density (Mbits / in2) 60%CGR Quad Core 10 4Performance (on log scale) Autonomic Computing In-memory Databases Duo Core Pentium 5 10 3 Blades Pentium 4 Multicore Pentium III 10 2 Pentium II Pentium II 25%CGR At constant cost! Pentium Pentium Today 10 Today I486 Today I286/I386 1 40%CGR IBM 360/370 10 -1 10 -2 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 50
  • 51. Digitization – Energy Efficiency Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 51
  • 52. Digitization – Storage Capacity and Cost 10,000,000 $100,000.00 1,000,000 $10,000.00 Capacity * 100,000 $1,000.00 10,000 $100.00 1,000 $10.00Petabytes Cost per Shipped 100 Cost * $1.00 Gigabyte 10 $0.10 1 $0.01 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2010 Sources: IDC, "1999 Winchester Disk Drive Market Forecast and Review,“ Wall Street Journal, June 26, 2000 *Telcordia projected capacity 1988-1994 & costs 2003-2010. Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 52
  • 53. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 53
  • 54. Role of Technology – Software Agents, Service Oriented Architectures Java, J2EE .NET Complexity Component Based Model Driven Architectures C++, Development Smalltalk Policy Based Designs Object - Oriented Agents C, COBOL, Development Fortran, Ada Service Oriented Architectures Structured Programming Today 1970 1980 1990 2000 2020 Software Quality by Industry 25 Per K lines of code Range of Errors 20 15 10 5 0 Auto C&C Military Telecom WWW Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 54
  • 55. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 55
  • 56. Shape of the Industry & Underlying Infrastructure:Network Layersglobalnationalregionalmetrolocal Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 56
  • 57. Role of Technology – Networks & Interfaces Networks User Interfaces 4 10 Infiniband Interconnects SCI 6G Services Surface Area of Display Ad-hoc Networks 10g PCI 3D HIPPI Ethernet Express Gb Ethernet Appliances 1000 OCDMAPerformance Ethernet WANs 10 3 OC3 OCN Plasma AutoRF DS3 ATA LCD 100 Today FChan CRT Access 10 2 DS1 IDE Access SCSI 1 ST506 Today 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 1940 1960 1980 2000 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 57
  • 58. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 58
  • 59. Cellular Technology Roadmap C D M A G S M Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 59
  • 60. Mobile Data Users in the U.S. Wireless Wireless Wireless % Data Operator Technology Subscribers* Subscribers AT&T GSM 71.4M 28% (20.0M) T-Mobile GSM 30.8M 25% (07.7M)Verizon Wireless CDMA 67.2M** 31% (20.8M) Sprint CDMA 52.8M 25% (13.2M) Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 60
  • 61. Evolution of Three Key ITU IMTS 3G Technologies HSPA+ EDGE EvolutionTDMA + WCDMA HSDPA HSPA LTE/SAE R7WCDMA R-99 R5 R6 R8 …(3GPP)CDMA2000 EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO EV-DO (3GPP2) Rel 0 Rev A Rev B Rev C or UMB 802.16-2004 802.16-2005 802.16m WiMAX OFDM OFDMA 4G IMTS: Improved Mobile Telephony Service EV-DO: Evolution - Data Optimized TDMA: Time Division Multiple Access UMB: Ultra Mobile Broadband HSDPA: High Speed Downlink Packet Access OFDM: Orthogonal Frequency Division HSPA: High Speed Packet Access (DL+UL) Multiplexing LTE: Long Term Evolution SAE: System Architecture Evolution Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 61
  • 62. Data Rate, Mobility, Cost Comparisons Source: Alvarion Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 62
  • 63. GSM Technology Outlook thru 2010(3GPP) GSM – WCDMA – LTEYear of Technology Deployment in the US… 2004 2005 2006 2008 2010 … HSPA+GSM/ EDGE WCDMA HSDPA HSUPA (MIMO) LTE/SAEGPRS R-98 R-99 R5 R6 EDGE R8 Evolution R7 GSM Global System for Mobile Communications GPRS General Packet Radio Service EDGE Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution WCDMA Wideband CDMA HSPDA High Speed Downlink Packet Data Access HSUPA High Speed Uplink Packet Data Access HSPA+ Enhanced High Speed Packet Access LTE Long Term Evolution SAE System Architecture Evolution Source: Telcordia Report, 2008 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 63
  • 64. Technology RoadmapCellular Technology Evolution: 2G, 3G, 4G… 2G 3G 4G IDEN WIDEN HSDPA HSUPA HSPA+ EDGE GSM GSM/GPR3 TD-SCDMA 802.16d 802.16e WCDMA PDC LTE, UMB, 802.11n 802.16n & Mesh TDMA 802.20 (CFDM) CDMA CDMA CDMA2000 1xEV-DO 1xEV-DOa 1xEV-DOb 9-05A 9-05BLatency: >200ms 100-200ms <100ms <20msData rate: 20 kb/s ~500 kb/s up to 7.2 Mb/s up to 50 Mb/s Source: Deutsche Bank (March 2008) Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 64
  • 65. Wireless Technology Roadmap Source: Docera Public Wiki 2010 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 65
  • 66. Future Wireless Landscape Dominated by LTE with WiMAX playing a secondary role Two largest North American operators (Verizon and AT&T) will migrate towards LTE Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 66
  • 67. Future Wireless Landscape Expect significant overlap and coexistence in migration path – LTE will coexist with Rev-A and with HSPA variants for some time – Multi-mode and backward compatible devices Expect deployment delays – Industry generally says “2010” timeframe – Major hurdle may be backhaul to serve more base stations with greater bandwidth – Patents, Patents, Patents. Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 67
  • 68. Things to Expect by 2015  Near nationwide deployment in US with all top metro areas covered by a 4G technology  Backwards compatible terminals that can failover to 3G technologies  All-IP core networks and greater move towards mobile VoIP  More consumer electronics with embedded 3G/4G capabilities. Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 68
  • 69. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 69
  • 70. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 70
  • 71. Stages of Wireless Evolution Stage I – Whom can I reach, and how quickly? Stage II – When can I reach them? Time shifting – messaging, email & voicemail Stage III – How much information can I exchange, and with what circle of recipients? Interoperable applications Stage IV – Which applications make sense over which networks – LANs, WANs & broadband Stage V – Can I combine all my handheld devices into one? Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 71
  • 72. Stages of Wireless Evolution Stage VI – How can I access data & information? Initial digitization of information & creation of browser functions Stage VII – How many applications can I use on my wireless handset? Stage VIII – How can I use the same applications on multiple devices? – Home, Office, PC, Smartphone… Stage IX – How can I get services that anticipate what I need? Stage X – How can I get anything, any place, any time? And always… How can I get more for less? Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 72
  • 73. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 73
  • 74. What Will 5G & 6G Look Like? 3D Video on the Spot, Alerts 3G and 4G •Mobility •Ubiquity Networks Video On Demand, Voice Movies Wireless, News Text Anticipation • Physical Sciences •Speed •Bandwidth•Immediacy•Relevance Voice 5G and 6G Fixed Service Networks Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 74
  • 75. 5G and 6G Services Immediacy Anticipation – Voice & Texting – Social networking – Emergency – Location Based Response Services – News – Opportunity Driven – Financial Info Marketing – Gaming – Scheduling / Alerts – Selected – Advanced Healthcare Entertainment – Telematics Products – Financial Services – Streaming Audio / – Diagnostics / Video Prognostics – ... – ... Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 75
  • 76. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 76
  • 77. IP Leading to a Fully Packetized Future  Information / data / content / media – major drivers for applications 1. First, everything must be indexed for searching (now underway) 2. Once digitized, indexed, objectified, everything will be made available on a wireless handset, through over-the-top applications (voice is just one service of many) 3. What’s now available to techies, the rest of the world wants 4. Google’s success: They’re the ones doing the mash ups for the masses Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 77
  • 78. Convergence, Cooperation, Conflict? Telecom, broadcasting media, and Internet – all converging & competing in the same content delivery space Result is collision of world views, business models (e.g. ad- based vs. subscription-based) Operators, device vendors, IT and media firms, chipset vendors – all jostling for dominance User experience emerges as new battleground Leading players seek to acquire core assets they deem critical for success in converged space Seek to lead, and shape, necessary eco-system Colliding industries, “creative gales of destruction”, force players to experiment with new business models Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 78
  • 79. Traffic Impact of Introducing Packet-basedServices Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 79
  • 80. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 80
  • 81. 5G and 6G World: Integration, Convergence Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 81
  • 82. 5G and 6G World: Market Driven byApplications Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 82
  • 83. 5G and 6G World: Market Driven byApplications 150,000 apps… And counting! Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 83
  • 84. Digitization: 5G and 6G Services  Services, Applications – Games – Bill pay – M-Commerce – Social networking – Store / restaurant finder – Turn-by-turn navigation – ...  Applications -- magnet for customers and revenue! Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 84
  • 85. Digitization – 5G and 6G ServicesThe Columbia UniversityEarth Institute –Millennium VillagesProject in Africa Professor Jeffrey Sachs Broadband, Internet, and cell phones are narrowing the digital divide They are revolutionizing how development assistance works “It’s a remarkable technology… incredibly powerful and quickly reaching the poor on a market basis.” “Rural poverty has in the past been defined almost by its isolation. This is a way to break economic isolation, indeed isolation of all sorts.” Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 85
  • 86. Africa Mobile Penetration Source: Blycroft: “The Africa and Middle East Mobile Telecoms Market in Figures 2Q 2009“ Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 86
  • 87. ICT Development in Africa Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 87
  • 88. Millennium Villages Project in EastAfrica Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 88
  • 89. Digitization – IP as a Wireless IntegrationEnabler  Over-the-Top Services  App Stores  Long-term, it’s all about services! Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 89
  • 90. Mobile Data Services Market: % Revenuesby Segment Forecasts: India 2003-2012 Revenues 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Year Messaging Entertainment Information Others Others include mobile commerce & mobile marketing / advertising Source: Frost & Sullivan Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 90
  • 91. Example: Telematics – Projected Growth inNavigation Devices (millions)80 7170 OEM60 Portable 56.850 43.440 30.930 19.820 10.510 4.2 3.4 4.1 4.8 1.6 1.9 2.3 2.8 0 1.3 1.6 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: Telematics Research Group 2007 OEM market share: 45% in 2005… 6% in 2012 Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 91
  • 92. Example: Telematics – Subscriber BaseGrowth Source: Frost & Sullivan Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 92
  • 93. Example: Telematics – Wireless RevenueBreakdown Source: Frost & Sullivan Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 93
  • 94. Operators Still Have (the) Key Assets !  Network, backhaul  Spectrum  Customer relationships  OSS / BSS  Transaction-generated information  Spatial coordinates, user location  Most small developers still want ties with operators  Service provider of last resort  Brand and mind share  Regulatory backing (after all is said, they build & operate critical social infrastructure) Source: IDC Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 94
  • 95. Agenda  Trends and Projections – Adoption Curves (long term views) – Wireless Use Patterns – History & Future – Global Penetration – Infrastructure  Technologies – User Equipment – Computing & Storage – Software – Networks – Roadmaps  Digitization – Beyond 4G – Stages and Evolution – The 5G and 6G World – IP as an Integration Enabler – Explosion of Services  Questions & Answers Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 95
  • 96. Discussion It’s an Exciting World! – Moving at an exponential pace – Wireless is the future “You ain’t seen nothing yet!” Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 96
  • 97. Thank you! Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 97
  • 98. G’day Adam Drobot – IEEE WCNC 2010 – Sydney, Australia – 19 April 2010 – 98

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