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PV Grid Parity in India
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PV Grid Parity in India

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PV Grid Parity in India PV Grid Parity in India Presentation Transcript

  • Grid Parity of PV Power in India Grid connected residential & industrial Indo-German Energy Symposium– 28 April 2010, New Delhi
  • Agenda 1. Understanding Grid prices of India 2. Defining the 2020 market 3. Grid parity analysis 2
  • The first challenge to a grid parity discussion in India is the invisible cost of the the prices: subsidies in the value chain The invisible cost ofgrid grid prices in India is significant 3 View slide
  • The second challenge is that data for solar radiation varies significantly and this uncertainty gets reflected in LCOE 4 GHI Data for Bikaner, Rajasthan View slide
  • Residential and C&I represent 75% of the market, and the following discussion is based on these two segments only 18% 7% 21% Industrial Commercial Domestic Agriculture Others 8% 46% Total 577959 GwH p.a 5 Source: CEA, General Review 2009 as of 2007
  • The administered grid prices in the residential sector in India vary widely from states to states 2010 2150 LCOE @2100 kWh/m²y ~ 19.8 INR/kWh Gujarat 2100 Punjab annual irradiation on module Haryana Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu 1950 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] Bubble size according to specific market size Fixed tilted mounting structure Total annual irradiation at optimal tilt angle 6 Source: CEA, updated 31.03.2009, : NASA SSE 6.0
  • The administered grid prices for C&I Sector in general are higher but vary less from states to states 2010 LCOE @2100 kWh/m²y 2150 ~ 17.8 INR/kWh Gujarat 2100 annual irradiation on module Punjab Haryana Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka 1950 Tamil Nadu 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] Bubble size according to specific market size Fixed tilted mounting structure Total annual irradiation at optimal tilt angle 7 Source: CEA, updated 31.03.2009, : NASA SSE 6.0
  • However, the energy exchanges allow us to follow market forces in India, and prices ranging from INR 6-8/Kwh are discovered N2 S2 E2 W2 8 Prices in INR/MWH. Source: www.iexindia.com
  • Agenda 1. Understanding Grid prices of India 2. Defining the 2020 market 3. Grid parity analysis 9
  • Defining the 2020 market: Vision 2020 is not a 20:20 vision! “Currently, the break-even cost of PV in the United States varies by more than a factor of 10 despite a much smaller variation in solar resource. Overall, the key drivers of the break-even cost of PV are non-technical factors, including the cost of electricity, the rate structure, and the availability of system financing, as opposed to technical parameters such as solar resource or orientation.” Source: Break-Even Cost for Residential Photovoltaics in the United States: NREL, December 2009 10
  • The vision of 2020, depends on the growth path India takes from 2010 and there are two realistic growth paths Evolution Power demand grows at a moderate 4% p.a Raw material constraints not reached, Private sector participation at every stage of the value chain remains limited Tariffs grow at an average of 4% p.a Interest rates for debt is maintained at 12-13% per CERC norms Revolution Power demand grows at 7% p.a Increased private sector participation in generation, transmission and distribution takes place, and supply constraint for raw materials for power generation is seen Tariffs move towards at least an inflation adjusted mechanism (6% per year) Project finance interest rates are lowered to 7%, facilitated by government & multilateral agencies 11
  • Agenda 1. Defining the 2010 market: Challenges 2. Defining the 2020 market: Assumptions 3. Grid parity analysis 12
  • Residential Sector grid parity under Evolution, is first reached by MH & GJ in 2018, and by 2020, major states reach grid parity zones Evolution 2020 2150 Gujarat 2100 Punjab annual irradiation on module Haryana Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu 1950 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] LCOE range residential Bubble size according to specific market size (Levelized cost of electricity) 13 Source: CERC, Photon International, NASA data, Q-Cells Research
  • Residential Sector grid parity under Revolution is first reached by MH, GJ in 2015; by 2020, significantly more states cross grid parity Revolution 2020 2150 Gujarat 2100 Punjab annual irradiation on module Haryana Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka Tamil Nadu 1950 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] LCOE range residential Bubble size according to specific market size (Levelized cost of electricity) 14 Source: CERC, Photon International, NASA data, Q-Cells Research
  • C&I sector grid parity under Evolution, is first reached by MH,GJ, KAR in 2017, and by 2020 some states cross grid parity zones Evolution 2020 2150 Gujarat 2100 annual irradiation on module Punjab Haryana Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka 1950 Tamil Nadu 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] LCOE range residential Bubble size according to specific market size (Levelized cost of electricity) 15 Source: CERC, Photon International, NASA data, Q-Cells Research
  • C&I sector grid parity under Revolution is first reached by MH, GJ in 2013; by 2020, many significant states cross grid parity zones Revolution 2020 2150 Gujarat 2100 annual irradiation on module Punjab Haryana Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan 2050 [kWh/(m²y)] Chhattisgarh Maharashtra 2000 Andhra Pradesh Karnataka 1950 Tamil Nadu 1900 Orissa 1850 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 12,0 14,0 average price of electricity [INR/kWh] LCOE range residential Bubble size according to specific market size (Levelized cost of electricity) 16 Source: CERC, Photon International, NASA data, Q-Cells Research
  • Conclusion Grid Parity of PV power in India Grid Parity in India is reached first for the C&I segment (sometime in phase 2 of NSM) followed by the Residential sector (around phase 3 of NSM) By 2020, LCOE of PV power is likely to be lower than thermal based grid power in residential and C&I segments of market States likely to reach first grid parity are Gujarat and Maharashtra, mainly due to high grid prices and solar radiation availability Financing methods and grid price escalation rates will determine the exact time frames when grid parity will be reached 17
  • Please contact us at: Manasij Kar Q-Cells SE m.kar@q-cells.com OT Thalheim Sonnenallee 17 - 21 06766 Bitterfeld-Wolfen/ Germany FAX +49 (0)3494 6699 10000 WEB www.q-cells.com 18