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EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS Brussels 14 October 2009 The impact of new industrial classification on survey results: first evidence from a back casting exercise based on the ISAE construction survey   by Luciana Crosilla, Marco Malgarini ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses   EUROPEAN COMMISSION  DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Economic studies and research Economic studies and business cycle surveys
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR: MAIN CHANGES FROM NACE REV. 1.1 TO NACE REV. 2 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR: MAIN CHANGES FROM NACE REV. 1.1 TO NACE REV. 2   EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS   BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR: MAIN CHANGES FROM NACE REV. 1.1 TO NACE REV. 2 EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER  SURVEYS   BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009 ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
THE MICRO APPROACH: RECODING INDIVIDUAL DATA ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE MICRO APPROACH: TIME SERIES RECONSTRUCTION ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE MICRO APPROACH: REMARKS ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE MACRO APPROACH: THE METHOD USED EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009 The method used for the macro reconstruction goes as follow: 1) we have calculated a “conversion matrix” based on the reconstructed data for the period 2000-2008, where the coefficients t  a  i, p (m), l have been calculated as the ratio between the percentage (p) of positive/neutral/negative answers for each variable m and each division “i” classified according to the new NACE, and the corresponding old NACE aggregate for the construction sector in a whole for the year t (for t=200001 to 200812) and month l; 2) in order to take into account possible seasonal effects, the average conversion coefficients have been calculated over the period considered for each month l: a  i ,p (m), l where i, p (m) and l are, respectively, the new division, the percentage for variable m and the month
THE MACRO APPROACH: THE METHOD USED ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE MACRO APPROACH: SOME DISADVANTAGES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES ,[object Object],EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS   BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009
THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS   BRUSSELS  14 OCTOBER 2009 Table 2 provides a first evidence of the cross-correlation function between the Italian construction production index and both the new Confidence Climate and the “old” one. As we see, the performance of the two indexes is quite similar, both the indexes being coincident indicators with respect to production, with an average correlation being around 0,4-0,5.

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Crosilla Malgarini Backcasting Presentation

  • 1. EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS Brussels 14 October 2009 The impact of new industrial classification on survey results: first evidence from a back casting exercise based on the ISAE construction survey by Luciana Crosilla, Marco Malgarini ISAE - Institute for Studies and Economic Analyses EUROPEAN COMMISSION DIRECTORATE GENERAL ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL AFFAIRS Economic studies and research Economic studies and business cycle surveys
  • 2.
  • 3.
  • 4.
  • 5.
  • 6.
  • 7.
  • 8. THE MACRO APPROACH: THE METHOD USED EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009 The method used for the macro reconstruction goes as follow: 1) we have calculated a “conversion matrix” based on the reconstructed data for the period 2000-2008, where the coefficients t a i, p (m), l have been calculated as the ratio between the percentage (p) of positive/neutral/negative answers for each variable m and each division “i” classified according to the new NACE, and the corresponding old NACE aggregate for the construction sector in a whole for the year t (for t=200001 to 200812) and month l; 2) in order to take into account possible seasonal effects, the average conversion coefficients have been calculated over the period considered for each month l: a i ,p (m), l where i, p (m) and l are, respectively, the new division, the percentage for variable m and the month
  • 9.
  • 10.
  • 11.
  • 12. THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009
  • 13. THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009
  • 14. THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009
  • 15.
  • 16. THE NEW TIME SERIES EU WORKSHOP ON RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN BUSINESS AND CONSUMER SURVEYS BRUSSELS 14 OCTOBER 2009 Table 2 provides a first evidence of the cross-correlation function between the Italian construction production index and both the new Confidence Climate and the “old” one. As we see, the performance of the two indexes is quite similar, both the indexes being coincident indicators with respect to production, with an average correlation being around 0,4-0,5.