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  • 1. Prospek Industri Properti Indonesia tahun 2009 F. TEGUH SATRIA Persatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI) Dewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)
  • 2. PROPERTI RSH Subsidi Rusunami Perumahan Landed Houses Non Subsidi Vertical Houses/ High Rise Perkantoran Pusat Belanja Resort / Hotel
  • 3. SEGMENTASI PASAR PERUMAHAN ATAS ATAS 2000jt ATAS 1000jt FORMAL MENENGAH MENENGA 500jt SECTOR H BAWAH 150jt RUSUNAMI SUBSIDI & RS NON SUBSIDI 55jt RSH SUBSIDI BAWAH RENTAL INFORMAL SECTOR SOCIAL
  • 4. PREDIKSI 2009 – SEKTOR PERUMAHAN INDIKATOR EKONOMI ◦ Subsidi: Tahun 2008 = 800 M Tahun 2009 = 2.500 M ◦ ASUMSI APBN tahun 2009 - Growth Tahun 2009 = 6,2 % - Inflasi Tahun 2009 = 6,5 % - BI Rate Tahun 2009 = 8,5 %
  • 5. BI Rate tahun 2008 10 9 % 8 7 Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun Jul Agst Sep Okt Nov Des Tahun 2008
  • 6. Low Cost Apartment Developments Government of Indonesia’s Vision: New 1000 towers of low cost apartments in the next 5 years ◦ 60% in the Greater Jakarta High rise apartment towers ◦ 40% outside the Greater Jakarta Walk up apartments (Low Rise/Medium Rise) More than 500 hectare of land bank required for these new developments ◦ Government/state land PP 06/2006: state land selling price must be higher than NJOP PP 38/2008: state land selling price could be lower than NJOP as long as for low cost apartment developments ◦ Land consolidation/urban renewals ◦ Private land 7
  • 7. Development Progress PROGRESS OF LOW COST APARTMENT DEVELOPMENT PROGRAM 31 September 2008 I. GREATER JAKARTA NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT Pulo Gebang PT. Primaland Internusa Development 0,4 1 390 1 Cawang PT. CHD 0,5 1 731 2 Penggilingan Cakung PT. Nusuno Karya 1,1 3 444 3 Cibubur Jaktim PT. Rajawali Core Indonesia 0,46 4 471 4 5 Cipayung PT. Bina kualita Teknik 6,8 6 2400 6 Jl. Arjuna, Kebun Jeruk Jakbar PT. Anggana Development 0,5 1 684 7 Kebagusan, Jakarta Selatan PT. Perdana Gapura Prima, Tbk 5 5 2000 Perumahan Modernland, 8 PT. Modernland Realty, Tbk 1,7 3 1200 Tanggerang 9 Jl. Pegangsaan II Kelapa Gading PT. Tiara Metropolitan Jaya 4 17 6380 8
  • 8. Development Progress NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT 10 Ciledug PT. Binakarya Jaya Abadi 0,74 1 1000 11 Pulo Gebang PT. Bakrieland Development 3 6 2300 12 Daan Mogot km.14 Jakbar PT. Inten Cipta Sakti 4,7 3 3200 13 Pulo jahe, Jatinegara, Jaktim PT. Cakra Sarana Persada 3,5 6 3070 14 Megacity PT. Mahkota Kemayoran Realty 22 68 24000 15 Pancoran Residence, Jaksel PT. Graha Reyhan Triputra 6 7 5400 16 Jababeka PT. Graha Buana Cikarang 10 20 3000 17 Apartemen Bintaro hijau PT. Bintaro Hijau Lestari 2 3 2000 18 Gading icon PT. Mahardika 3,3 6 3000 19 Pesanggrahan PT. Esta Sarana Lestari 1,7 8 1500 20 Kelapa Gading PT. Mahardika Propertindo 3 8 3200 21 Menara Latumeten PT. Anggana Margahayuland 1,1 2 1400 9
  • 9. Development Progress NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT 22 Cengkareng PT. Reka Rumanda Agung 3,7 10 3946 23 Menara Pekayon PT. Kasama Ganda 2,4 6 2400 24 Kalibata Residence PT. Pradani Sukses Abadi 12,7 45 16100 25 PT. Satwika Permai Indah 2 4 576 26 Ciledug PT. Sari Indah Lestari 1,2 3 1200 27 Depok PT. Mahardika Propertindo 1 3 990 28 Bintaro PT. Bahama Development 1,8 3 1550 29 PT. Arsidinamika Cipta 1,4 2 864 30 PT. Bangun Megah Pratama 2 3 2990 TOTAL 109,7 258 98386 10
  • 10. Development Progress I. OTHER CITIES NO. LOCATION DEVELOPER Area ( ha ) TOWER UNIT 1 Batam PT. Dimas Pratama Indah 14 36 5000 2 Bandung 23 5000 11
  • 11. KEPEMILIKAN HUNIAN UNTUK ORANG ASING Hak pakai 25 tahun 70 tahun Hunian Baru Batasan Harga Minimal ( USD 100,000 ) Batasan Jumlah per Kawasan @ tower (max.49%) ◦ POTENSI : 10.000 unit/tahun @ USD 250,000 / unit - USD 2,500 million/tahun Expenses/year TAX Penyerapan tenaga kerja Dll… 12
  • 12. PEMILU 2009 LEGISLATIF - 200.000 Caleg @ Rp. 200 jt/caleg = 40 T - PARTAI PILPRES 13
  • 13. Jakarta CBD Office Market Construction of new office buildings has been active since 2005, spurred by tenant expansions. Average occupancy increased from 79% in 2004 to 88% as of end April 2008. Average base rental rates in USD increased by 4 % per year during that period. The market is cautious due to high level of future supply of 530,000 sqm, to be completed by end 2009. JAKARTA CBD OFFICE MARKET CUMULATIVE SUPPLY, DEMAND, OCCUPANCY Cumulative Supply, Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate 4,500,000 90% 4,000,000 88% 3,500,000 86% 3,000,000 83% 2,500,000 81% 2,000,000 79% 1,500,000 77% 1,000,000 74% 500,000 72% 0 70% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Occupancy Rate Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008
  • 14. Jakarta Retail Market Strong consumer spending post economic crisis 1997-2001 has enticed developers to build new retail centers. Massive new strata title retail space completed since 2003 has push down the average occupancy from 86 % in 2003 to 78% in 2007. Prime shopping malls with strong retail concept and tenancy mix, however, managed to maintain beyond 90% occupancy levels Cumulativ e Supply and Demand (in sq.m) Occupancy Rate 3,500,000 88% 86% 3,000,000 84% 2,500,000 82% 2,000,000 80% 1,500,000 78% 1,000,000 76% 500,000 74% - 72% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 2008P 2009P Cumulativ e Supply Cumulativ e Demand Occupancy Rate Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008 15
  • 15. Jakarta Strata Title Apartment Market New supply continues to enter the market. Total cumulative existing supply was 60,313 units at the end of March 2008, of which 95% have been sold Middle price segment dominated the market. Despite large amount of future supply, developers continue to launch new projects Average occupancy level decreased, but more Indonesian currently lives in strata title apartments. Sales Rate Cumulative Supply & Demand (in units) 90,000 100% 80,000 80% 70,000 60,000 60% 50,000 40,000 40% 30,000 20,000 20% 10,000 0 0% 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009P Cumulative Supply Cumulative Demand Sales Rate 16
  • 16. Greater Jakarta Residential Estate Market Landed residential developments remain active, evidenced by the increase of developed area as a result of new housing clusters launched. Tangerang/West Jakarta continued to enjoy the highest monthly take up due to better accessibility and good supporting infrastructure. Land price, sales rate and occupancy rate remained stable over the past 6 months. JABOTABEK RESIDENTIAL MARKET PLANNED AND DEVELOPED AREA hectares 45,000 90.0% 40,000 80.0% 35,000 70.0% 30,000 60.0% 25,000 50.0% 20,000 40.0% 15,000 30.0% 10,000 20.0% 5,000 10.0% - 0.0% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 08Q1 Planned Area Developed Area Propotion of Developed Area (%) Sales Rate Procon Indah/Savills Research, April 2008 17
  • 17. Regional Property Market Overview Rents of office and retail space in Jakarta are considered low compared to those located in other Asian major cities. Prime Offices Rents, 1 Jan 2008 US$ per sq.m. net per mth. 250 200 150 100 50 0 Tokyo Hong Kong Singapore HCMC Beijing Guangzhou Shenzhen Jakarta Lumpur Seoul Shanghai Taipei Hanoi Kuala Source: Savills Research & Consultancy 18
  • 18. Regional Property Market Overview Prime Retail Mall Rents, 1 Jan 2008 US$ per sq.m. net per mth. 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Tokyo HCMC Hong Kong Hanoi Lumpur Singapore Taipei Guangzhou Shanghai Seoul Beijing Jakarta Kuala Source: Savills Research & Consultancy 19
  • 19. New Trends: Retail Center Developments Outside Java Growing middle income segment of Indonesian population Good potential for new retail centers in the cities outside Java with 500,000 – 1,000,000 population Socio-Economic Survey * in Indonesia, 2001-2006 100% 90% 80% A (Above Rp2 mil/month) 70% B (Rp1.5-2 mil/month) Percentage 60% C1 (Rp1.0-1.5 mil/month) 50% C2 (Rp 0.7-1.5 mil/month) 40% D (Rp0.5-0.7 mil/month) 30% E (Below Rp 0.5 mil/month) 20% 10% 0% 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Year *AC Nielsen Socio-Economic Survey is based on monthly household expenditure, not actual income. 20
  • 20. KESIMPULAN Memperhatikan indikator yang ada maka diprediksi industri properti Indonesia tahun 2009 akan tumbuh cukup signifikan terutama sektor perumahan, lebih khusus sub sektor perumahan bersubsidi. Sektor komersial, khususnya pusat belanja akan tumbuh di kota-kota sedang (500.000 – 1.000.000) baik di Jawa maupun di luar Jawa. 21
  • 21. KESIMPULAN Bila kepemilikan hunian bagi orang asing bisa disetujui mendapat kemudahan, maka bisa diharapkan beberapa kota akan mendapat dampak positif yang cukup signifikan, misalnya Jakarta, Bali dan Batam. 22
  • 22. TERIMA KASIH F. TEGUH SATRIA ersatuan Perusahaan RealEstat Indonesia (REI) 23 ewan Pengurus Pusat (DPP)