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15 Orgahead 15 Orgahead Presentation Transcript

  • ORGAHEAD - Modeling Network Adaptation as Simulated Annealing Process 2002
  • Organizational Adaptation
    • This study only concerned with formal structure
      • Change precipitated by executive decisions
      • Limited number of change strategies
      • Not all strategies can be considered at a time
      • “ Greedy” selection criteria, with some probability of risky personnel changes
      • Thus - locally satisficing process
  • Organizational Adaptation
    • Organizational change
      • Hiring, Firing, Restructuring, Training
      • Employees learn through experience with task
    • Adaptation performance measured against real-world results
      • Stock market performance, profits
      • Minimizing costs, maximizing production
  • Adaptation and Environment
    • If environment remains static, eventually a suitable (or optimal) profile will be found
    • As time goes on, organization less likely to make risky moves
      • Institutionalization
      • Competency traps
      • Unwillingness to accept new technologies
  • Optimization
    • Problem space:
      • Organizational structure (network)
      • Skill set of personnel
      • Task assignment
    • Step function:
      • Organizational change
    • Fitness function:
      • Performance, profit, cost
    • Goal:
      • Optimize fitness function
  • Orgahead Structure ORGAHEAD Knowledge Agent/Knowledge 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 Other performance and vulnerability measures Task Assignment TASK Communication team1 team2 accuracy team1 team2 workload
  • ORGAHEAD Simulated annealer (expectation learning) + adaptive agents (experiential learning) STRATEGIC 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 OPERATIONAL time task organizational decision Forecasting: Current performance Possible change Expected performance Who knows who Who knows what actual design change actual performance experience information from others information from task feedback Feedback Recommendations
  • Radar Task Decision: Friendly or Hostile? Speed > Mach 1? Transponder Code Correct? NATO? Weapons Armed? Heading into our airspace? ...
  • Agent Decisions
  • Tasks
  • Adaptive Agents
    • Each agent sees a portion of information
    • Classify pattern of incoming information
      • Raw SIGINT or
      • Processed information from below
      • Classify as “Friendly of Hostile”
    • Make decisions based on past experience
    • Receive feedback on accuracy of their predictions
    • Adjust internal knowledge (experience)
  • Internal Representations/ Operations Analysts Managers CEOs Inputs “ 1 ” 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 = 0 1 0 1 = 0 1 1 0 = 0 1 1 1 = 0 0 0 = 0 0 1 = 1 1 0 = 1 1 1 = 0 0 0 = 0 0 1 = 1 1 0 = 0 1 1 = 1 0 0 = 0 0 1 = 1 1 0 = 1 1 1 = 0 0 0 0= 0 0 1 0= 1 1 0 0= 1 1 1 0= 0 0 0 1= 1 0 1 1= 1 1 0 1= 1 1 1 1= 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 • Agent constraints: 1. Limited memory 2. Maximum of seven resources/inputs Decision Rule: If # of 1 ’s > # of 0 ’s, then “ 1 ” Else “ 0 ” • Organizational activities: 1. After every n tasks, propose a change: hire, fire, or change ties. 2. Test change. 3. Accept all good changes and some bad changes. • Agent activities: 1. Update memory table based on correctness of final decision. 2. Report truthfully. April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Orgahead Strategic Level
    • Organization is trying to optimize performance
      • Performance=Percentage of correct tasks
    • CEO alters structure to optimize structure in response to performance
  • Strategic: Simulated Annealing metropolis criterion: p j ( k,  , Temp 0 ) = e -cost*k/Temp Temp i =  · Temp i-1 where 0.0 <  < 1.0 cost j = current perf j - lookahead perf j 1-dimensional solution landscape heuristic April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Methods of change
    • Add Personnel
    • Fire/eliminte personnel
    • Change organizational network
      • Redesign reporting structure
      • Enable interaction (I.e. create edge)
    • Change knowledge network
      • Retask personnel
      • Training
      • Change in workload (stress)
  • Model Algorithm
      • Get initial organization
      • Train agents in initial organization
      • Generate org. performance
      • Choose a way to alter structure
      • Forecast expected change in performance
      • Decide whether to accept proposed change
      • Drop temperature
      • Repeat
  • Performance over Time
  • Sequence Analysis adaptive organizations : HHH T F TT FFFFF HHH T H FF H F T F H FFF H F H T H F H F HH F H H T HH T HHHH TT F T H T H T H TTTTT H T F T F TTTTTT F H T F TT HH F HH F H FF H T H TTT F HH T HH F T F T F H FFF T H F HH T F HH T T H TTTTTTTT H TTTTTT H F T H T H TTTTTT F TT HHHHH TT TTTTTTTTT H TTTTTTTT H TT H F TTTTTTT F T H TTTT H T T H T H F T H TTT H TT H TTTTTTTTTT H TTT H T F TTTTTTT F T T H T H TTT H TTTT H TTT HH F T FFF TTTT FF T FF TTTTTT F T TT F HH T H TT F TTTT F T F TT F H T FF TTT HH TTTTT H T H TT T H TT H TTTTTT H TT HH TTTTTTT H TTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT H F T FF TTT H TTTT HH T H F T H T F H TT H TT FF TT FF TTTT F maladaptive organizations : TTTTTTT H TT F TTTTT H FFF H F T F TT F T H T FF TT H T H F TT TTTTT H F T F TTTT H TT F T FF T FFFFFF T F H T F TT FF TT F HHHHHH F HHHH F H F H F HH F H TT H F H FFFFF T HH F HH F T F T F TTT F T FF H F HHHHH T H T H F TT H FF T FF H FF H F H F H T F TTT H T FF HH F HH TT FF H TT H F TT F H T F H T H FF H T F HH TT T F TT F TT F T H TT F T F TT FF H T F H F T F H T FF H F T H F H F H F F T FF TTTT FF H FF T FFFF H FFFFFFF H F HH F H F H F HH FF H F TT F H F H T HH T HHH T H T F H TT H FF T H F H T H T FFFFFF H T H T H TTTTTTTTT FF TTTTT F TT F HHH T HH TT F H FF H FFF H F HHH T FF H TT HH FFFFFFF HH F H FFF T F HH FF HHH F H F H F too many firings more structural changes than turnover T = Tie Change H = Hire F = Fire
  • Correlating Performance and Activity
  • Firing can Hinder Perfromance
  • … But Not Always
  • Maladaptive Hiring and Adaptive Firing
  • Dynamic Adaptation
  • Adaptive Organizational Structures April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Adaptive Structures with Tasks April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Maladaptive Structures April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Maladaptive Structures with Tasks April 2002 Ju-Sung Lee - CMU – CASOS – SDS - ICES
  • Scaling Up ORGAHEAD
    • Currently 2 to 45 DMU's
      • Could be individuals or groups or divisions
      • Model is extensible to several hundred – but needs programming
    • Currently 1-3 levels
      • Can be at any meaningful division
      • Need not be formal authority
      • Model is extensible to several hundred – but needs programming
    • Currently one task at a time
      • Needs to be converted to multiple co-temporal tasks
    • Currently max task complexity is 18
      • If need more complexity need a different architecture
    • To build a larger, more complex organizations
      • Model at the cell or division level
      • Build multiple orgahead models – one for each group, cell or division and combine results
      • Transactive memory
  • levels of analysis
    • Multiple levels of analysis possible
      • JTF (joint task force)
      • Top management
      • Group/team
      • Overall organization
    • Multiple levels of input data possible
      • None
      • Solely group/cultural parameters
      • High level indicators/strategies for change
      • Detailed knowledge networks
      • Or combination of any of the above
    • Level of data influences specificity of predictions generated in analysis
    Nodes in ORGAHEAD or Construct are DMU’s people agents groups organizations or some combination
  • Illustrative high level indicators or data that can be used
    • Number of groups
    • Size of groups
    • Information on task assignment or job labels
    • Key resources used or services provided
    • Number or types of divisions
    • Average level of education, tenure, gender, age, race, religion, language
    • Information on locations
    • Cohesion within and among groups
    • Educational areas
  • Applications Hypothetical 3-45 Adaptive Organizations Questionnaire Schwab Questionnaire 683, 9 divisions SGI Questionnaire 17-150, 35 units Nursing Study Archival Data 9-12 Crisis Response Units Questionnaire and Experiment 4-6 NPS teams Field Observations 5 cells Comcargru Data Number of Agents/divisions Study