Science basis of climate change
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  • in the last slide you refer to AR4, you mean AR5, I guess
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  • 1. IPCC Working Group I: The Physical Science Basis The Physical Science Basis of Climate Change: Latest Findings to be Assessed by WGI in AR5 Thomas Stocker Gian-Kasper Plattner Co-Chair Working Group I Deputy Head, Director of Science University of Bern, Switzerland TSU WGI, University of Bern
  • 2. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 IPCC (2007): Warming in the climate system is unequivocal... (IPCC, 2007, Fig. SPM-3)
  • 3. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 IPCC (2007): Most of the observed increase in global averaged temperature ... is very likely due to ... increase in GHG concentrations. (IPCC, 2007, Fig. WGI-SPM-4)
  • 4. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 IPCC (2007): Continued GHG emissions ... would induce many changes ... that would very likely be larger than those observed ... 2020-2029 2090-2099 (IPCC, 2007, Fig. WGI-SPM-6) Change in Temperature (°C), Scenario A2
  • 5. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 Some policy-relevant findings to be assessed in AR5: Observations (3 examples) Projections (3 examples)
  • 6. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 1. CO2: Higher levels and more rapid increase 2009: 387 ppm (Siegenthaler et al., 2005; Lüthi et al., 2008, NOAA)
  • 7. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 2. Extensive thinning on the margins of Greenland and Antarctica (Pritchard et al. 2009)
  • 8. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 3. Persistent sea-level rise consistent with earlier estimates Merrifield et al., 2009: [1993–2008] (3.5 ± 0.4) mm/yr IPCC 2007: [1993–2003] (3.1 ± 0.7) mm/yr (Merrifield et al., 2009, in BAMS)
  • 9. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 4. Rapid loss of Arctic sea ice (Wang and Overland, 2009) ice-free
  • 10. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 5. Long-term commitment and irreversibility of CO2 perturbation (IPCC, 2007, Chapter 10, simplified, Plattner et al. 2008)
  • 11. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 6. Abrupt climate changes caused by geoengineering 10 Mio t Sulphur / Year OFF ON (Robock et al., 2008) Termination Problem Year
  • 12. Working Physical Science Basis: Latest Findings toFifth Assessment Report The Group I Contribution to the IPCC be Assessed by WGI in AR5 Conclusions: IPCC WGI firmly stands behind the conclusions of AR4, the community of researchers and its individuals providing the scientific basis, and the procedures of IPCC Assessments; The combination of observations and paleoclimate information shows unprecedented changes in the climate system, both in amplitude and rate for 100‘s to many 1000‘s of years; Wide-spread melting of ice margins is observed in Greenland and Antarctica with implications for sea level rise; Emitted CO2 remains in the atmosphere for 1000‘s of years causing irreversible changes in the climate and in ocean chemistry; Geoengineering methods have an inherent termination problem and do not mitigate the direct effects of CO2 increase.