Out of Gas
The end of the age of oil



         David Goodstein




            Air Resources Board, November 30 , 2006
Energy Myths
– $3.00 a gallon is too much to pay
– Oil companies produce oil.
– We must conserve energy.
– When we run out...
A Brief History of Energy

Caloric
Count Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson),
1753-1814
Many others                     Work c...
Forms of Energy
Kinetic
     Organized
     Random (Temperature)
Potential
     Gravitational
     Chemical
     Nuclear
 ...
Thermal Radiation
30% reflected
70% absorbed
30% reflected
Earthrise on the Moon
                        70% absorbed
30% reflected
                            70% absorbed



T = 255 K = -18 oC = 0 oF
Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle
Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle
• The Thermohaline
  Flow
Earth’s Climate
• The tilted axis
• The El Niño Cycle
• The Thermohaline
  Flow
• The Greenhouse
  Effect
The Greenhouse Effect
      (Preindustrial)

                        From the Sun: 343 W/m2
Water vapor, methane,
Carbon d...
Sources of Useful Energy
Before 1800:
Light from the
Sun

Coal
Oil seeps
Swamp gas
Nineteenth Century
Coal
Whale Oil
E. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA.
Illumination, Lubrication
Fuel
  We can no longer liv...
M. King Hubbert
Hubbert’s analysis
Q = All the oil that’s been discovered
Q0 = All the oil that ever existed

At first, discovery grows ex...
But exponential growth slows down when
Q is no longer small compared to Q0:


        dQ/dt = aQ(Q0 – Q)




        The L...
dQ/dt versus Q
dQ/dt versus t
[ a ( t0 −t )]
dQ         ae
   = Q0       [ a ( t0 −t )] 2
dt      [1 + e              ]
The Logistic Curve

dQ
dt




                          t
Extrapolating the declining rate of
             increase

                      1 dQ
                           = a (Q0 −...
Fitting the data—Hubbert’s Peak
 Hubbert Curves



                    US Onshore Oil Production
               10
       ...
Reserves and Discovery
     Oil Reserve Data
                          Proved Oil Reserves                                ...
Model Calculation
Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Sci. Amer., 1998
Caution
• Used 1.8 trillion
• Technology = Discovery
• Increasing price makes more
  available
• “Reserve” numbers very so...
Kenneth Deffeyes:


The Texas Railroad Commission announced a
100% allowable for next month

The San Francisco Chronicle, ...
The New York Times, February 24, 2004

Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields
By JEFF GERTH


…the co...
Oil Users
• Petrochemicals
• Stationary power
  plants
• Home heating
• Transportation
    Cars
    Trucks
    Planes
    ...
Global Energy Consumption,
           1998
     5   4.52

     4
                      2.96
     3          2.7
TW
     2
...
Fossil Fuels
Oil
Natural gas
Shale oil
Methane hydrate
Coal
Coal

• Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rate
• Largest deposits in US
• Can be liquified substitute oil
But
• D...
What does the future hold?
•   Oil crisis very soon
•   Fossil fuel will run out
•   Unknown consequences for climate
•   ...
Technological Fixes
Greenhouse Effect
Technological Fixes
           Greenhouse Effect

• Parasol at L1
Technological Fixes
          Greenhouse Effect

• Parasol at L1
• Sequester CO2
Solar
Solar
• Hydro
Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass
Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass
• PV
(10 TW = 220,000 km2)
Solar
• Hydro
• Wind
• Biomass
• PV
(10 TW = 220,000 km2)
Total Solar Flux =
20,000 x 10 TW
Conservation
        (Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute)

•   Ultra light/strong materials
•   Hybrids
•   Efficient ...
Nuclear
Nuclear
• Geothermal
Nuclear
• Geothermal

• Fission
Nuclear
• Geothermal

• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
  plants)
Nuclear
• Geothermal

• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
  plants)
• Fusion
Nuclear
• Geothermal

• Fission
(10 TW = 10,000 GW
  plants)
• Fusion
(1 gallon sea water =
300 gallons gasoline)
Transportation
Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen
Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen
• Other fuels
Transportation
• Advanced batteries
• Hydrogen
• Other fuels



  We understand the
  basic principles
Prediction
Civilization as we know it will come to an
end sometime in this century, when the
fuel runs out.
Stanford University
Global Climate & Energy Project




  Toyota, ExxonMobil, GE, and Schlumberger

                      ...
POWERING THE PLANET
Caltech’s Center for Sustainable Energy Research (CSER)

           Harry Atwater, Harry Gray, Sossina...
Out of Gas
The end of the age of oil



         David Goodstein
Out of gas
Out of gas
Out of gas
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Out of gas

  1. 1. Out of Gas The end of the age of oil David Goodstein Air Resources Board, November 30 , 2006
  2. 2. Energy Myths – $3.00 a gallon is too much to pay – Oil companies produce oil. – We must conserve energy. – When we run out of oil, the marketplace will take over – There’s enough fossil fuel in the ground to last for hundreds of years. – Nuclear energy is dangerous. – The greenhouse effect and global warming are bad.
  3. 3. A Brief History of Energy Caloric Count Rumford (Sir Benjamin Thompson), 1753-1814 Many others Work converted to heat Credit James Prescott Joule, 1818-1889 4 Lbs. The falling weight turns the paddle wheel in the tank of water. As the wheel turns, the temperature of the water increases. Water filled tank
  4. 4. Forms of Energy Kinetic Organized Random (Temperature) Potential Gravitational Chemical Nuclear etc.
  5. 5. Thermal Radiation
  6. 6. 30% reflected 70% absorbed
  7. 7. 30% reflected Earthrise on the Moon 70% absorbed
  8. 8. 30% reflected 70% absorbed T = 255 K = -18 oC = 0 oF
  9. 9. Earth’s Climate • The tilted axis
  10. 10. Earth’s Climate • The tilted axis • The El Niño Cycle
  11. 11. Earth’s Climate • The tilted axis • The El Niño Cycle • The Thermohaline Flow
  12. 12. Earth’s Climate • The tilted axis • The El Niño Cycle • The Thermohaline Flow • The Greenhouse Effect
  13. 13. The Greenhouse Effect (Preindustrial) From the Sun: 343 W/m2 Water vapor, methane, Carbon dioxide, etc. 88% Greenhouse T = 287K= 14oC = 57oF Feedback effects Limiting cases
  14. 14. Sources of Useful Energy Before 1800: Light from the Sun Coal Oil seeps Swamp gas
  15. 15. Nineteenth Century Coal Whale Oil E. L. Drake, 1859, Titusville, PA. Illumination, Lubrication Fuel We can no longer live on light from the Sun
  16. 16. M. King Hubbert
  17. 17. Hubbert’s analysis Q = All the oil that’s been discovered Q0 = All the oil that ever existed At first, discovery grows exponentially dQ/dt = aQ
  18. 18. But exponential growth slows down when Q is no longer small compared to Q0: dQ/dt = aQ(Q0 – Q) The Logistic Equation
  19. 19. dQ/dt versus Q
  20. 20. dQ/dt versus t
  21. 21. [ a ( t0 −t )] dQ ae = Q0 [ a ( t0 −t )] 2 dt [1 + e ]
  22. 22. The Logistic Curve dQ dt t
  23. 23. Extrapolating the declining rate of increase 1 dQ = a (Q0 − Q) 1 dQ Q dt Q dt Q0 Q Q0 for the U.S. was 150 billion barrels
  24. 24. Fitting the data—Hubbert’s Peak Hubbert Curves US Onshore Oil Production 10 9 8 7 Mb/d 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025
  25. 25. Reserves and Discovery Oil Reserve Data Proved Oil Reserves Annual Oil Discoveries 60 1200 Production 1000 50 OPEC 800 40 bn bbls 600 bn bbls OPEC 30 400 20 200 Non-OPEC 10 0 Non-OPEC 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 1995 1998 2001 0 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2003
  26. 26. Model Calculation Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère Sci. Amer., 1998
  27. 27. Caution • Used 1.8 trillion • Technology = Discovery • Increasing price makes more available • “Reserve” numbers very soft • Basic idea is right
  28. 28. Kenneth Deffeyes: The Texas Railroad Commission announced a 100% allowable for next month The San Francisco Chronicle, 1971
  29. 29. The New York Times, February 24, 2004 Forecast of Rising Oil Demand Challenges Tired Saudi Fields By JEFF GERTH …the country's oil fields now are in decline, prompting industry and government officials to raise serious questions about whether the kingdom will be able to satisfy the world's thirst for oil in coming years. … Some economists are …optimistic that if oil prices rise high enough, advanced recovery techniques will be applied, averting supply problems. But privately, some Saudi oil officials are less sanguine.
  30. 30. Oil Users • Petrochemicals • Stationary power plants • Home heating • Transportation Cars Trucks Planes Ships Trains
  31. 31. Global Energy Consumption, 1998 5 4.52 4 2.96 3 2.7 TW 2 1.21 1 0.828 0.286 0.286 0 Oil Gas Coal Hydro Biomass Renew Nuclear Total: 12.8 TW U.S.: 3.3 TW (99 Quads)
  32. 32. Fossil Fuels Oil Natural gas Shale oil Methane hydrate Coal
  33. 33. Coal • Hundreds, maybe thousands years at present rate • Largest deposits in US • Can be liquified substitute oil But • Dirty (mercury, arsenic, sulfur) • Greenhouse effect • Increase rate x5 replace oil • Increasing population • Higher standard of living • Hubbert’s peak.—This century
  34. 34. What does the future hold? • Oil crisis very soon • Fossil fuel will run out • Unknown consequences for climate • Solar flux plus nuclear • Dilemma – Social, political – Technical
  35. 35. Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect
  36. 36. Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect • Parasol at L1
  37. 37. Technological Fixes Greenhouse Effect • Parasol at L1 • Sequester CO2
  38. 38. Solar
  39. 39. Solar • Hydro
  40. 40. Solar • Hydro • Wind
  41. 41. Solar • Hydro • Wind • Biomass
  42. 42. Solar • Hydro • Wind • Biomass • PV (10 TW = 220,000 km2)
  43. 43. Solar • Hydro • Wind • Biomass • PV (10 TW = 220,000 km2) Total Solar Flux = 20,000 x 10 TW
  44. 44. Conservation (Amory Lovins, Rocky Mountain Institute) • Ultra light/strong materials • Hybrids • Efficient buildings, factories • Fuel from switchgrass, poplar, sugar cane • More efficient use electricity • Feebates • Etc.
  45. 45. Nuclear
  46. 46. Nuclear • Geothermal
  47. 47. Nuclear • Geothermal • Fission
  48. 48. Nuclear • Geothermal • Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants)
  49. 49. Nuclear • Geothermal • Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants) • Fusion
  50. 50. Nuclear • Geothermal • Fission (10 TW = 10,000 GW plants) • Fusion (1 gallon sea water = 300 gallons gasoline)
  51. 51. Transportation
  52. 52. Transportation • Advanced batteries • Hydrogen
  53. 53. Transportation • Advanced batteries • Hydrogen • Other fuels
  54. 54. Transportation • Advanced batteries • Hydrogen • Other fuels We understand the basic principles
  55. 55. Prediction Civilization as we know it will come to an end sometime in this century, when the fuel runs out.
  56. 56. Stanford University Global Climate & Energy Project Toyota, ExxonMobil, GE, and Schlumberger Lynn Orr
  57. 57. POWERING THE PLANET Caltech’s Center for Sustainable Energy Research (CSER) Harry Atwater, Harry Gray, Sossina Haile, Nathan Lewis, Jonas Peters Steven Koonin at BP Powering the Planet
  58. 58. Out of Gas The end of the age of oil David Goodstein

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