Working Group 2
  Findings from AR4
Expectations from AR5

        Chris Field
      Vicente Barros
   Co-chairs, IPCC WG2...
WG 2 – AR 4: Themes
• Vast stock of examples of observed changes
• Wide array of projected future impacts
   – Magnitude v...
Observed impacts
      •   Physical and biological systems
      •   29,000 time series in chapter 1
      •   All contine...
Changes in physical and biological systems, 1970-2004:
      Statistical support for human influence.




                ...
Advanced detection-attribution techniques
to test link between species movements and AGW




                             ...
Responses to earlier springs
•   Average advance in signs of
    spring: 2.3 days/decade
     – Budburst, flowering, nesti...
Impacts: links to specific levels of climate change




                                        AR4, WG2, Table TS 3
Threats to water security




                            AR4, WG2, Fig TS 5
Regional threats: Australia and New Zealand




                                          AR4, WG2, Fig TS 12
Avoiding impacts
 with mitigation




       AR4, WG2, Fig TS 4
mitigation   Managing vulnerability with adaptation and mitigation




                                 adaptation
       ...
WG2 in the AR5
• Common frameworks & currencies for impacts,
  adaptation, and mitigation
• Broadening the range of assess...
AR5: Broader range of assessed impacts
Ocean impacts




• Oceans
   – half of global NPP
   – 70% of surface area
   – 41% has multiple
     impacts


Behrenfel...
AR5:
  Improved
treatment of
extremes and
  disasters




     AR4, WG2, Fig TS 13
AR5:
   More thorough treatment of costs of climate change:
     common framework & more inclusive currencies




IPCC 2007
IPCC AR5

• Move from “it’s real” to “here is the
  information you need to make good decisions
  for your stakeholders”
 ...
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Impact adaptation and vulneraility

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Impact adaptation and vulneraility

  1. 1. Working Group 2 Findings from AR4 Expectations from AR5 Chris Field Vicente Barros Co-chairs, IPCC WG2 8 December 2009
  2. 2. WG 2 – AR 4: Themes • Vast stock of examples of observed changes • Wide array of projected future impacts – Magnitude varies with scenario – Damages concentrated in extreme events • Vulnerability exacerbated by other stresses – Hot spots – Vulnerable sectors and populations in all regions • Many impacts can be avoided, reduced, or delayed by mitigation • Increased adaptation can help reduce future vulnerability
  3. 3. Observed impacts • Physical and biological systems • 29,000 time series in chapter 1 • All continents and most oceans • Likely that AGW has had a discernable influence AR4, WG2, Fig 14.1
  4. 4. Changes in physical and biological systems, 1970-2004: Statistical support for human influence. AR4, WG2, Fig TS 1
  5. 5. Advanced detection-attribution techniques to test link between species movements and AGW AR4, WG2, Box TS 4
  6. 6. Responses to earlier springs • Average advance in signs of spring: 2.3 days/decade – Budburst, flowering, nesting, fledging, etc. – 172 species (trees, shrubs, herbs, butterflies, birds, amphibians, fish • Parmesan & Yohe 2003 Nature v 421 p 37 • Advancing bud-burst date: – 2.5 days/decade – 1900-1998 – Aspen in Edmonton • Beaubien & Freedland. 2000. Int J. Meteorol.
  7. 7. Impacts: links to specific levels of climate change AR4, WG2, Table TS 3
  8. 8. Threats to water security AR4, WG2, Fig TS 5
  9. 9. Regional threats: Australia and New Zealand AR4, WG2, Fig TS 12
  10. 10. Avoiding impacts with mitigation AR4, WG2, Fig TS 4
  11. 11. mitigation Managing vulnerability with adaptation and mitigation adaptation AR4, WG2, Fig TS 19
  12. 12. WG2 in the AR5 • Common frameworks & currencies for impacts, adaptation, and mitigation • Broadening the range of assessed impacts • The interaction of climate change & development • Integrating climate science with climate impacts • Assessing new impact studies based on AR5 climate • Improving the treatment of regional aspects of climate change
  13. 13. AR5: Broader range of assessed impacts
  14. 14. Ocean impacts • Oceans – half of global NPP – 70% of surface area – 41% has multiple impacts Behrenfeld et al Nature 2006
  15. 15. AR5: Improved treatment of extremes and disasters AR4, WG2, Fig TS 13
  16. 16. AR5: More thorough treatment of costs of climate change: common framework & more inclusive currencies IPCC 2007
  17. 17. IPCC AR5 • Move from “it’s real” to “here is the information you need to make good decisions for your stakeholders” – Risk management framing – Multiple stresses framing – Full partnership for adaptation

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