The Demographic Transition
Model
Learning Objectives
• Know what the DTM is;
• Be able to describe the stages of the DTM and
consider a possible 5th stage;...
The Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 – High fluctuating phase
• BR and DR are high – often 30-40 per 1000
• Fluctuating due to impacts of wars, drought...
Stage 2 – Early expanding phase
• BR remains high
• DR starts to fall
• Therefore this is a period of high rates of
natura...
Stage 2 – Early expanding
•
•
•
•

Sierra Leone is an example
BR of 47 per 1000
DR 18 per 1000
But, unlike the MEDW where ...
Stage 3 – late expanding
•
•
•
•

Population growth begins to slow down
DR continues to fall
BR also beings to fall
Toward...
Stage 3 – late expanding
•
•
•
•

Tunisia – part way through this stage
BR of 22 per 1000
DR of 7 per 1000
Still much less...
Stage 4 – low fluctuating
• Low BR and DR therefore low natural increase
and population growth
• DR largely stable
• BR sl...
Stage 5 - decline
• The original model had only 4 stages, but
there has recently become a need to consider
a ‘5th stage’ a...
Which stage?
Country

Birth Rate

• Bangladesh
• Brazil
• Canada
• China
• Denmark
• France
• Germany

Death Rate

• Greec...
MEDW vs LEDW
MEDW
• Most passed through all
stages
• Stage 4 – around 1960s
• Some into Stage 5
• Took about 200 years
• G...
The usefulness of the DTM
• It is universal in concept – it can be applied to all
countries
• It provides a starting point...
The usefulness of the DTM
• The original model did not include a 5th stage
• It is eurocentric – assumes that all countrie...
Thailand
The demographic-tranistion-model
The demographic-tranistion-model
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The demographic-tranistion-model

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The demographic-tranistion-model

  1. 1. The Demographic Transition Model
  2. 2. Learning Objectives • Know what the DTM is; • Be able to describe the stages of the DTM and consider a possible 5th stage; • Understand the DTM in relation to the MEDW and LEDW; • Evaluate the usefulness of the DTM.
  3. 3. The Demographic Transition Model
  4. 4. Stage 1 – High fluctuating phase • BR and DR are high – often 30-40 per 1000 • Fluctuating due to impacts of wars, droughts, famine and disease • Overall, population is relatively stable • UK: Pre 1760 • Refers to pre-industrial societies • No countries fit this stage now, although it can be linked with some communities e.g. indigenous rainforest populations
  5. 5. Stage 2 – Early expanding phase • BR remains high • DR starts to fall • Therefore this is a period of high rates of natural increase and hence population growth • UK: 1760-1880, although in the UK (and other MEDCs) the BR and DR were much closer together so there was never the huge population growth experiences in many LEDCs
  6. 6. Stage 2 – Early expanding • • • • Sierra Leone is an example BR of 47 per 1000 DR 18 per 1000 But, unlike the MEDW where population change was a product of economic development, for the LEDW it is often experienced in largely agricultural countries – causing a ‘poverty trap’.
  7. 7. Stage 3 – late expanding • • • • Population growth begins to slow down DR continues to fall BR also beings to fall Towards the end of stage 3, BR and DR start to converge • UK: 1880-1940 • China, Brazil, Tunisia are at this stage
  8. 8. Stage 3 – late expanding • • • • Tunisia – part way through this stage BR of 22 per 1000 DR of 7 per 1000 Still much less industrialised than the UK was at this stage in the model
  9. 9. Stage 4 – low fluctuating • Low BR and DR therefore low natural increase and population growth • DR largely stable • BR slightly more fluctuating due to ‘baby booms’ – often linked to times of economic prosperity • Many countries of the MEDW have now reached stage 4 e.g. Canada, USA, Japan • UK: post 1940
  10. 10. Stage 5 - decline • The original model had only 4 stages, but there has recently become a need to consider a ‘5th stage’ as countries such as Sweden, Germany and Italy have found themselves with a population below the replacement level – this means there is a natural decrease in population as BRs have fallen below DRs. • UK: Post 2000?
  11. 11. Which stage? Country Birth Rate • Bangladesh • Brazil • Canada • China • Denmark • France • Germany Death Rate • Greece • Italy • Mali • Niger • Philippines • Switzerland • UK Stage of DTM Justification
  12. 12. MEDW vs LEDW MEDW • Most passed through all stages • Stage 4 – around 1960s • Some into Stage 5 • Took about 200 years • Growth rates c. 1% / yr • Led by economic growth LEDW • Many entered stage 2 mid C20th • Many still in Stage 2/3 • High population growth • Pop growth between 2 and 4% • More rapid • Driven by governments and western medical aid
  13. 13. The usefulness of the DTM • It is universal in concept – it can be applied to all countries • It provides a starting point for the study of demographic change • The timescales are flexible • It is easy to understand • It allows comparisons to be made between countries • Allows some predictions to be made
  14. 14. The usefulness of the DTM • The original model did not include a 5th stage • It is eurocentric – assumes that all countries will follow the European sequences of change • Does not allow for the role of governments or the impact of migration • Not all countries (or regions) will pass through all of the stages or at the same rates • No account of base population e.g. China where low rates of natural increase -> large population growth
  15. 15. Thailand

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