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Mobile Industry Technology Forecast

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In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows; ...

In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows;
First we started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second we studied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determine the important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, or helped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption. Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenue pyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industry PEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a study for the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main important industry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication of each. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentioned types of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights, a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies which may exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it is extremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and presented.

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Mobile Industry Technology Forecast Mobile Industry Technology Forecast Presentation Transcript

  • Mobile IndustryTechnology Forecasting January 2012Prepared by :Al-Motaz Bellah Al-AgamawiAs a part of the MS.c in MOT, Technology forecasting and ForesightCourse Project, Conducted in Nile University
  • Report Methodology • Industry Definition. First • Studying history of mobile phonesSecond • Industry analysis including market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics, main trends, Producers revenue pyramid,Third current and future strategies • PEST analysis and porter five forces model.Fourth • Study for the major technological trends. For each of the identified industry trend, identifying the main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication Fifth of each.
  • Report Methodology • Construction of technology future wheel s, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Sixth • we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents.Seventh • Relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusionEights rate for each of those technology alternatives. • Road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies Ninth • Conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and presented. Tenth
  • Industry Definition Consumer Electronics Industry encompasses such industries as Computers, Consumer Electronics and Telecommunications. It is divided into two main segments within the B2C (Business to Consumer) space which are: @Home and On the Go electronics. The On-the-Go sector may be broken into three segments:  Mobile–Communication  Entertainment  Productivity Overall, this analysis focuses primarily on Mobile Communication Devices within the Consumer Electronics market.
  • Industry Segments Several segments within Mobile Devices are hardware and software: Communication  Mobile Phone Entertainment  Portable Gaming Systems  Portable Music/ Video Players Productivity  Mobile Computer  Laptop  Notebook  Tablet  Ultra-Portable  PDA  Navigation Systems(GPS)
  • 2.Industry Segments Several segments within Mobile Devices are hardware and software: c communication Mobile Phone FOCUS AREA En tertainment  Portable Gaming Systems  Portable Music/ Video Players Productivity  Mobile Computer  Laptop  Notebook  Tablet  Ultra-Portable  PDA  Navigation Systems(GPS)
  • Who I am? I am an independent forecasting consulting. Providing forecasting consultation for Mobile Phone Multinational Vendor.
  • 1985 1987 1989 1993 1994 1996 1999 2000 2001 2004 2007 2008 2009 2010 Motorolas DynaTac
  • 1985 1877 1989 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Motorolas StarTac
  • 1985 1877 1989 1989 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Nokia introduces
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1994 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010Nokia introduces Games
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1996 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Communicator Line
  • 1985 1997 1989 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010CrackberryAddiction
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1999 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Web Mobile
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 2000 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Antenna Free Mobiles !!
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 2001 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 the 3G ERA Camera Phone
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 2007 2008 2009 2010 2010 iPhone
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 2008 2009 2009 2010 Appstore
  • 1985 1877 1887 1925 1948 1950 1962 1966 1980 1982 1992 1998 2001 2010 Nexus
  • Market Dynamics Market Overview Sales Growth140012001000800600400200 0
  • Market Dynamics Market Overview Market Share
  • Market Dynamics Factors That have driven Change • Consumers crave convenience. On the Go • Not so long ago our phones had cords, they were bulky, heavy and sucked power like a Hoover, now they got liberated by not sticking to one place. Lifestyles • The creation of ever-smaller scales for mechanical, optical, and electronic products and devices. Processing Power wentMiniaturization up as chip size shrank • Now miniaturization is taking a new turn, it helped increase mobility and power. • As more and more phones are linked together –the value from such a device rapidly increases. Phones initially were prettyNetwork Effect much worthless. Then as more and more people bought phones, the value of owning a phone expanded exponentially. • Combination of voice(telephony)andConvergence / data(computing/multimedia) into a single, multi-functional device. Integration • Design and the integration of voice, multi-media, and computing is a huge driver of increased mobility
  • Industry Growth & Events - Analysis - Traditional Vs Smart PhoneNumber of unites
  • Industry Growth & Events - Analysis -Smart Phones and Application Stores Shares
  • The Value ChainSource: http://www.progresspartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/Progress-Partners-Industry-Maps_Q42011_Mobile-Content.pdf
  • Industry Growth & Events -Strategies-
  • Industry Growth & Events -Strategies-
  • PEST AnalysisPolitical Economical• Environmental • Taxations. Regulations. • Economic Benefits.• Restrictions on the tariffs • Rapid growth. and phones.• Government regulations.• Internet Regulation.• Base Stations & Human Health.Social Technology• Lifestyle changes. •Rates of obsoleteness.• Social mobility. •New discoveries.• Shift towards the •Speed of technology Information Society. transferee.• Increasing Need for •Technological Communications. Innovations.• Security threats.• A necessity not a luxury.
  • Porters Five ForcesRivalry buyer Power• Rivalry is High and intense • High Buyer Power• Digital Convergence is tearing down the walls between • Price conscious consumers will continue to put industries. downward pressure on prices.• Open architecture is forcing many companies to duke it • Telecom carriers set strict terms from handset makers. out with each other.• Margins are being squeezed due to commoditization and substitutes are introduced. Supplier Power, Suppliers hold only low to moderate powerNew Entrance Substitute• The threat of new entrants is low in the • The greatest threat is convergence traditional sense. •As more functions are crammed into devices,•significant for startups in that capital requirements are large. universal devices may drive stand-alone products•However, a very large number of companies spread out a from the market. cross various industries are ready to jump into markets offering •You can think of Skype and iPad with tweaking can even a hint of profitability. change the landscape.• Real danger exists in that the technology landscape is ever changing. •Potential disruptions is expected from Tablets as the iPad.
  • Porters Forces -threat of Complimentors -Hardware advances create pull demand for matching software, andvice versa.Advances in communications technologies also fuel demand forupgraded/replacement devices.As OS’s increase their capabilities ,application software’s potential isthereby increasedMicrosoft and Nokia Strategic Alliance •Nokia with include Windows 7 for its Smart Phones •Microsoft will License Nokia Maps, Media Technology and Other as a part of its Windows 7Nokia new Release Integrated with Apple iTunes 30
  • In this Study we are mainly focusing on the Smart Phones Technologies and Industry.But as a Quick Overview about the Traditional Phones, it can be summarized as…
  • Traditional Phones - Forecast - Current Phone FeaturesTechnology/Product Performance Disruptive Technology, For Low Priced Enabled Phone. 10$ and 5$ Phones are Current coming. User Demand Time
  • For the Rest of the Study, we are Focusing onSmart Phones Technologies and Industry
  • Industry Trends-Experiencing Eco-System-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! Eco-System Expansion? Storage, Is IPR/Copy it local or rights? Cloud? Bandwidth, Monetizati Speed on? Limits & Cost???
  • Industry Trends -APPS, APPS, APPS-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! Closed Systems? Monetization? Open source? Single or Multi Processing vendor? Power? Bandwidth? Storage Size?
  • Industry Trends-INTREFACE Design & Usability-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! Full Features ? Social, Easy Location Friendly Based,… Usage? Complet Privacy? e Eco- System? Ext. Sys. High Com.? Security?
  • Industry Trends -Display-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! Small Device? Large Display?
  • Industry Trends-Monitoring Energy-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! High Resolution Low Power ? Consumpti on? Touch Features? = ???!!! Long Life Battery?
  • Industry Trends -Processing Speed-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! High Processing ? Low Heat? Low Power? = ???!!! Small Size?
  • Industry Trends -Keyboard-
  • Technological Challenges ???!!! Small Size Device? Friendly Keyboard?
  • Technology Forecast -Future Wheel- Internet Apps Physical Enterta Size inment Local ECO- Convenience System Keyboard Cloud Storage Power Smart Processor Open Phones OS Heat Proprie Connectivity Battery tary Processing Display Long Life Speed Coverage Small Small Physical Size Size Cost Large Resolution DisplayHigh Level Summary
  • Technology Forecast -Relevance Tree- Smart Phones Storage Keyboard Connectivity ProcessorLocal Cloud Laser Touch Satellite WIMAX Apple A Sony CELL Built-In GSM NVIDIA QualcommFlash DRAM Intel LPDDR2 4G 3G LTE Display Battery Screens Projection lithium-ion Wireless charging LCD TMOS Eyeglass solar fuel cells electrofluidic Holographic telescopic pixels Built in Projector LPDDR: Low-power, double data rateAMOLD OLED TMOS: Time Multiplexed Optical Shutter
  • Technology Forecast -Structural Analysis- 1 Battery 2 Processor 3 Display 4 Keyboard 5 Storage 6 Connectivity 7 OS 8 Ecosystem 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 6 2 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 6 3 1 1 0 1 1 1 5 4 1 1 1 0 1 1 5 5 1 1 0 1 1 1 5 6 1 1 1 0 1 1 5 7 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 7 8 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 6 1 5 6 7 8 2 3 4
  • Technology Forecast -Cross Impact- 1 Battery 2 Processor 3 Display 4 Keyboard 5 Storage 6 Connectivity 7 OS 8 Ecosystem 1 5 6 7 8 2 3 4 Battery Life is the show stopper. Display Technology is struggling Keyboard convenience is a mustConnectivity incremental innovation is progressing Storage alternatives are acceptable Processing Power is accepted Source: http://mobiledevdesign.com/tutorials/choose-right-mobile-display-tech-reduce-power-gap-081309/
  • Technology Forecast Currently Diffused -Future Forecast- Growth Phase Smart Phones Future Forecast Storage Keyboard Connectivity ProcessorLocal Cloud Laser Touch Satellite WIMAX Apple A Sony CELL Built-In GSM NVIDIA QualcommFlash DRAM Intel LPDDR2 4G 3G LTE Display Battery Screens Projection lithium-ion Wireless charging LCD TMOS Eyeglass solar fuel cells electrofluidic Holographic telescopic pixels Built in Projector LPDDR: Low-power, double data rateAMOLD OLED TMOS: Time Multiplexed Optical Shutter
  • Technology Forecast -Roadmap- Incremental Modular RadicalDiffusion Over Time Innovation Innovation Innovation Short Tem Mid Tem Long Tem 0 to 1 Year 1 to 3 Year 3 to 5 Year lithium-ion 1 Battery lithium-ion + Wireless charging LCD AMOLD 3 Display Built in Projector OLED telescopic pixels Holographic Built-In 4 Keyboard Touch Laser DRAM Cloud 5 Storage Flash DRAM + Flash LPDDR2 LPDDR2 + Flash 3G 6 Connectivity 4G LTE Satellite
  • Technology Forecast -Wild Card- Moderate Intermediate Extreme Yelling Heartbeat Cola biological battery grabs energy 1 Battery turning noise into Heart beat to Kinetic energy from the drinks sugar Atomic electrical current. Dirt nuclear fusion on a microbial fuel cell Nano- photonic microscopic scale E-Paper 3D Holographic 3 Display Quantum-LED E-Ink 2 Laser- phosphor Laser-Quantum Silicon substrates MEMS Holographic nano-structures 5 Storage micro-electro mechanical systems clean itself, or scan your foodNanotechnology Very Small Size and Fully for harmful toxins Featured Atomic: http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2010-01/04/silent-speech-and-atomic-batteries-the-future-of-mobile-phones Yelling, Dirt, Heartbeat, cola: http://www.pocketgamer.co.uk/r/Multiformat/Top+5+mobile+charts/feature.asp?c=31390 E-Ink: http://hothardware.com/News/Liquavista/ Disruptive Technology in Display: http://www.google.com.eg/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=display%20technology%20forecast&source=web&cd=8&ved=0CFgQFjAH&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.intertechpira.com%2FCore%2FDownloadDoc.aspx%3FdocumentID%3D11002&ei=c1QQT_ebKoWg- AbsmPDlAg&usg=AFQjCNGSsAR2P8AHg5h5RH0wAl8KYPxBew Mobile Display Research: http://www.phonearena.com/news/Flexible-mobile-displays-Interview-from-the-research-lab-with-Michael-G.-Helander_id24436 Next Generation Display: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Next_generation_of_display_technology Future of Storage: http://www.wtec.org/loyola/hdmem/toc.htm
  • Technology Forecast -Forecasted Future Mobile- Short Tem Long Tem 1 to 2 Year 3 to 5 Year1 Battery lithium-ion Nano- photonic + Wireless +Yelling 5x Life + quick recharging + Wireless2 Processor 3 G Speed Nano CPU Triple Speed3 Display AMOLD Built in Projector Holographic4 Keyboard Advanced Touch Laser5 Storage DRAM + Flash Cloud LPDDR2 + Flash6 Connectivity LTE 4G Satellite Advanced Features, Solving Built-in, SR, TR,7 OS HW Deficiencies Multilingual MAT & AI8 Ecosystem More TV, Radio, Movies, Business HD Movie Streams, Edu, Apps and Mobile Payment, Health, Security, ID,… Advanced Monetization
  • Acknowledgment It worth mentioning that the following parts her mentioned have been presented based on a mutual team work cooperation between the author of this research paper and the following names as a part of their BSAD 603- Corporate Strategy, course project conducted in Nile University as part of the Msc in MOT studies.Names: Rasha Tantawy, Basma Albana and Mohamed Mokhtar.Parts are: Industry definition, industry timeline, market dynamics, PEST analysis and some of the industry trends.
  • DisclaimerAll material in this report is for informational andscholar research study purposes only . Any and allideas, opinions, and/ or forecasts, expressed orimplied herein, should not be construed as arecommendation to invest, trade, and/orspeculate in the markets. Be advised that studyauthor will not be held responsible for anyinvestment actions that you take as a result ofany information mentioned in this report.
  • Al-Motaz Bellah Al-AgamawiMS.C MOT, Nile University, 6 October, Cairo, EgyptEmail: magamawi@gmail.comSkype ID: magamawi / icloud ID: magamawi@me.comLinkedin Profile: http://www.linkedin.com/in/motazalagamawiSlideShare Profile: http://www.slideshare.net/magamawi