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In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows; ...
In this study I have tried to conduct a technology forecast for the mobile industry. In order to do this we have developed and followed a ten steps methodology as follows;
First we started by defining the industry and determining the exact sub industry definition. Second we studied the history of mobile phones with special focus on the important milestones to determine the important inflection technology events which took the technology to the second level, or helped in diffusing the technology, or created a new trend or resulted in a technology disruption. Third we gone through an industry analysis phases in which we studied the market growth rate, market share of different players, identifying leaders, followers. Followed by studying the market dynamics and main trends from both producers and consumers. Producers revenue pyramid, current and future strategies have been included. Fourth we composed the industry PEST analysis followed by industry overall analysis using porter five forces model. Fifth, a study for the major technological trends have been conducted, resulted in identifying main important industry trends. For each of the identified industry trend, we have identified the main technological challenges based on the consumer pull demand and the technology implication of each. Sixth, we constructed our technology future wheel based on all the previously mentioned types of analysis, resulted in identifying the main technology subcomponents. Seventh, we gone through a structural analysis followed by cross impact analysis for those subcomponents. Eights, a relevance tree for all those subcomponents including different technological alternative for each have been constructed. Followed by an analysis based on experts opinion about existing diffusion rate for each of those technology alternatives. Ninth, a road map for the forecasted technologies have been compiled, followed a wild card listing for alternative technologies which may exist in the near or far future, even technologies which in research and we believe that it is extremely wild have been included. Tenth, a conclusion of our forecasted short and terms technologies landscape have been composed and presented.
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