Will Thin Films win in India?      Madhavan Nampoothiri        December 13, 2011            Mumbai
Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future ou...
Agenda1. Introduction2.   How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3.   What is driving the growth?4.   What is the fut...
Thin Films – From Niche to Mainstream                             Global Thin Film market share     20%                   ...
PV production – c-Si dominates  2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc)          CIS/CIGS                    Thin film S...
Agenda1.   Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in   India ?3.   What is driving the growth?4.   What is the f...
C-Si dominates in production….• JNNSM target – 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022• Local content requirement in J...
....but, Thin Film dominates in installations                             Technology selection under JNNSM                ...
India – a good export market for global TF                     companies          a-Si/μc-Si                              ...
Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future ou...
Growth Drivers                  Technology                 -Temperature                   coefficient               -Spect...
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?  a. Technology4. What could happen?
Thin Film Vs c-Si           Advantages                   Disadvantages•   Temperature coefficient    •   Conversion effici...
Temperature coefficient – The TF USP..                                         Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures   ...
Spectral response - Another differentiator• Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especially  junction a-Si• Bette...
The result : Higher energy yield for TF                                      Source: GTM Research  - TF consistently gener...
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?  b. Costs4. What could happen?
Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still                 maintains some advantage.                                     ...
Land and BoS Costs – Disadvantage for Thin                  Films• Land requirement higher for Thin Films• BoS requirement...
Operations and Maintenance – Higher cost• More exposed area – more cleaning, more  manpower requirement• More BOS ….  – Mo...
Still….• Overall cost lower than c-Si  – Land cost in India is negligible  – Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price ...
1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth?  c. Financing4. What could happen?
Cost of Financing• Project financing – very challenging to secure• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to-  ba...
Agenda1.   Introduction2.   How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3.   What is driving the growth?4. What is the fut...
Thin films domination to continue• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted   – 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan   – At l...
c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus• Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met• Indian c-Si manufactu...
Will TF be manufactured in India?                          a- Si                 CdTe                      CIGSCapital    ...
Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What could happen?5. ...
Takeaways..• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian  developers• Yield, lower capital cost and better financin...
Conclusion• Global market dynamics will have huge impact  on the technology selection• If c-Si prices achieve parity with ...
May the technology with the best          $/kWp Win!!
Thank you Madhavan NampoothiriEnergy Alternatives India  Mob: 98848-29214   madhavan@eai.in      www.eai.in
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Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India

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This is the presentation I made at the Intersolar India 2011 Conference held at Mumbai, India(www.intersolar.in).

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  • Oerlikon – 240 million euro’s / 120 mw of a- si plantFirst Solar – 430 million $ for a 300 mw CdTe plantCentrotherm– 1.4 billion euro’s for a 1000 mw CIGS plant
  • Thin film Solar Photovoltaics in India

    1. 1. Will Thin Films win in India? Madhavan Nampoothiri December 13, 2011 Mumbai
    2. 2. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    3. 3. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    4. 4. Thin Films – From Niche to Mainstream Global Thin Film market share 20% $500 -Thin film market share increased when 18% 18% $450 polysilicon prices went 16% $400 up, and vice versa. 14% $350 13% 12% 13% $300 - The decreasing price 10% 10% $250 differential with c-Si is reducing cost 8% $200 8% competitiveness of TF 6% 6% $150 4% $100 2% $50 $70 $100 $250 $450 $70 $50 0% $- 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Average Polysilicon spot price $/kg Thin Films % ShareSouce : Analysis based on GTM Research, iSuppli, Photon International and other sources
    5. 5. PV production – c-Si dominates 2010 Cell production by Technology(MW-dc) CIS/CIGS Thin film Si 426 1,339 5% -c-Si has large market share 2% CdTe 1,438 - In thin films, CdTe is the leader Super 6% -a-Si not far behindMonocrystallin - CIGS is makings its presence felt e Si Standard 920 Crystalline Si 4% 19,768 83% Thin Film capacity in 2012(MW)-China has significant Thin Film 3000capacity 2500 2000-Europe leads in Emerging technologies 1500 1000- a-Si leads in production capacity 500 0 CdTe CIGS a-Si EmergingSource: GTM Research
    6. 6. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    7. 7. C-Si dominates in production….• JNNSM target – 4 to 5 GW of PV production capacity by 2022• Local content requirement in JNNSM(Phase 1) – C-Si : and Modules to be made-in-India – Thin films: No import restrictions• No local content mandates in state policies• C-Si Module manufacturing capacity ~ 1500 MW• C-Si Cell manufacturing capacity ~ 600 MW• Thin film manufacturing capacity – Negligible – Moser Baer, Shurjo Energy and HHV Solar
    8. 8. ....but, Thin Film dominates in installations Technology selection under JNNSM 120 Gujarat State policy - 60-70% thin films 100 Installations in MS 80 60 40 20 0 Total IREDA NVVN Type of scheme C-Si Thin Films-India bucks the global trend- Thin films grabbed more than 60% market share
    9. 9. India – a good export market for global TF companies a-Si/μc-Si CIGS CdTeDupont USA MiaSolé USA First Solar USAECD/Uni-solar USA Q-Cells(Solibro) Germany Abound Solar USAMasdar PV Germany SolarFrontier JapanNexPower ChinaSchott Solar GermanySharp JapanT-Solar Spain Note: The above is a partial list of TF companies in India -CdTe very popular, First Solar has high market share - a-Si, despite lower efficiencies, have seen lot of companies coming -CIGS also has takers
    10. 10. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    11. 11. Growth Drivers Technology -Temperature coefficient -Spectral response Cost Financing - Lower module - Ease of cost financing- Inexpensive land through EXIM/ECB route
    12. 12. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? a. Technology4. What could happen?
    13. 13. Thin Film Vs c-Si Advantages Disadvantages• Temperature coefficient • Conversion efficiencies• Better performance under • Area requirement diffuse light conditions • Higher BOS requirement• Higher Energy Yield • Breakage• Faster energy payback • Aging behavior not known• Module grounding not • Materials shortage/toxicity required for frameless modules
    14. 14. Temperature coefficient – The TF USP.. Efficiency drop at elevated temperatures 14% 13% 12%Cconversion efficiency 11% 10% 9% 8% 7% 6% 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 Temperature(Deg C) a-Si CdTe CIGS C-Si(Mono) c-Si(Multi) - Efficiencies at STC(25 Deg C) is misleading, since that is rare in India - c-Si loses efficiencies faster - Higher energy yield during peak season
    15. 15. Spectral response - Another differentiator• Ability to absorb more light in the spectrum, especially junction a-Si• Better performance under diffuse light Lesser shading effect• Higher energy yield
    16. 16. The result : Higher energy yield for TF Source: GTM Research - TF consistently generating more electricity
    17. 17. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? b. Costs4. What could happen?
    18. 18. Module cost : C-Si closing in, but TF still maintains some advantage. Spot price(Euro/Wp) 2.05 1.85 1.65 1.45Euro/Wp 1.25 1.05 0.85 0.65 Avg C-Si(Germany) Avg C-Si(Japan/Korea) Avg c-Si(China/Taiwan) CdTe Silicon Tandem(a-Si/Micro-Si) Amorphous Silicon -CIGS price/Wp closer to c-Si Source: pvxchange.com
    19. 19. Land and BoS Costs – Disadvantage for Thin Films• Land requirement higher for Thin Films• BoS requirement higher because of lower efficiencies BOS cost comparison : c-Si v CdTe $13,000 higher for Thin Film plant Source: GTM Research
    20. 20. Operations and Maintenance – Higher cost• More exposed area – more cleaning, more manpower requirement• More BOS …. – More Strings – More Fuses – More cable …..more breakdown possibilities
    21. 21. Still….• Overall cost lower than c-Si – Land cost in India is negligible – Higher BOS cost offset by lower module price – O&M Labor cost low• Marketing mantra for TF – $/kWh and not $/Wp
    22. 22. 1. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India?3. What is driving the growth? c. Financing4. What could happen?
    23. 23. Cost of Financing• Project financing – very challenging to secure• Indian banks are more comfortable with recourse-to- balance sheet financing• EXIM, ECB banks offer attractive interest rates• Even after hedging and insurance, cost of capital at 8-9% as against 13%+ for local financing
    24. 24. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What is the future outlook for Thin Films?5. Conclusion
    25. 25. Thin films domination to continue• JNNSM - Round 2 : 350 MW allotted – 300 MWp of projects will be in Rajasthan – At least 250 MW expected to go for thin films• Gujarat – TF likely to dominate• Rajasthan and Karnataka – TF likely to grab higher market share than c-Si
    26. 26. c-Si manufacturing will require stimulus• Local content requirement objectives not likely to be met• Indian c-Si manufacturers will be forced to reduce costs faster to remain competitive with TF• Policy support critical to develop local PV manufacturing ecosystem• Rooftop policies could help c-Si because of limited space
    27. 27. Will TF be manufactured in India? a- Si CdTe CIGSCapital $ 2.92 Million / MW $ 1.46 Million / MW $ 2.02 Million / MWInvestments*Project timeline 2.5 – 3 yrs 1.5 – 2 years ~ 2 YearsCost Drivers Raw materials and Raw materials and Raw materials and consumables, consumables, consumables, CAPEX depreciation CAPEX depreciation CAPEX depreciation * Excluding land cost -Long lead times and huge investments are challenges -Global excess production capacity is a major roadblock
    28. 28. Agenda1. Introduction2. How is Thin Film Technology doing in India ?3. What is driving the growth?4. What could happen?5. Conclusion
    29. 29. Takeaways..• Thin film technology adopted by majority of Indian developers• Yield, lower capital cost and better financing options driving TF growth in India• Local content mandates have had limited impact• Global TF manufacturers benefitting from India’s solar boom…• … but the Indian TF manufacturing ecosystem is yet to evolve
    30. 30. Conclusion• Global market dynamics will have huge impact on the technology selection• If c-Si prices achieve parity with TF, c-Si will become more competitive• As long as land is cheap, thin films will rule in India
    31. 31. May the technology with the best $/kWp Win!!
    32. 32. Thank you Madhavan NampoothiriEnergy Alternatives India Mob: 98848-29214 madhavan@eai.in www.eai.in
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