Super bowl XLVII Prediction - Analytics in Pro Sports
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Super bowl XLVII Prediction - Analytics in Pro Sports

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Super bowl XLVII Prediction - Analytics in Pro Sports Presentation Transcript

  • 1. Super Bowl XLVII PredictionProprietary & confidential. © Decision Lens 2013
  • 2. Super Bowl Predictions ! Rely on many factors ! Quantifiable measures of team performance ! Intangible assessments of momentum ! We can draw on the predictions of a large number of experts in the field 2
  • 3. Decision Lens Application ! Blend together quantitative and qualitative assessments ! Sensitivity analysis allows for examination of “what-if” scenarios ! Hierarchy process works well for breaking down criteria, e.g. offense, defense, and special teams 3
  • 4. Three Main Factors ! Advanced Statistics ! Expert/Group Assessments ! Vegas Lines, Pundits, National Polls ! Intangibles ! Momentum, Previous Super Bowl Experience, etc. 4
  • 5. Advanced Statistics ! Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) ! Developed by Football Outsiders ! Accounts for outside factors to provide accurate assessment of offense, defense, and special teams ! Publicly available results 5
  • 6. Expert/Group Assessments ! Point spreads and moneyline bets show how Vegas oddsmakers view the probabilities of each team’s victory ! Football Outsiders uses their DVOA formulas and others to make a prediction ! Crowd-sourced opinions from ESPN’s SportsNation poll of over 300,000 fans 6
  • 7. Intangibles ! Momentum, injury risk, coaching record ! Ray Lewis ! Ability to analyze qualitative factors a strength for Decision Lens 7
  • 8. Results Three Scenarios ! “Stat-Heavy” ! “Defense Wins Championships” ! “Trust The Experts” Score of 1 means best in the league in every category and 100% chance to win game Score of 0 means worst in the league in every category and 0% chance to win game 8
  • 9. Stat-Heavy ! 60% of weight is allocated to advanced statistics ! Defense equal importance to offense ! Passing > Rushing ! Special teams mild impact ! Total scores: San Francisco .589, Baltimore .536 Close San Francisco win 9
  • 10. Defense Wins Championships ! Less weight is allocated to statistics, but that weight is more heavily allocated to defense ! Total scores: San Francisco .628, Baltimore .476 San Francisco’s defensive advantage is larger than their advantage in other areas 10
  • 11. Trust The Experts ! More weight is allocated to the predictive measures of Vegas oddsmakers, Football Outsiders, and ESPN’s crowd-sourced poll ! Total scores: San Francisco .611, Baltimore .461 Experts are confident in San Francisco’s chances of victory 11
  • 12. How could Baltimore win? ! Baltimore has advantages in two categories ! Special Teams performance ! Intangible factor of Ray Lewis ! Situations in which Baltimore scores higher depend on one or both of those factors having a much higher weight than normal 12
  • 13. Conclusion ! Decision Lens predicts a medium-sized victory for San Francisco, neither blowout nor nailbiter ! Most likely scenario of a Baltimore victory involves a game-changing special teams play ! Jacoby Jones (BAL) has 3 return tds this season ! David Akers (SF) has had an off year kicking 13
  • 14. Conclusion 14
  • 15. Stat Heavy Conclusion 15
  • 16. Conclusion – Highest Level Criteria 16
  • 17. For more information about this presentation and sports related predictions please contact Gavin Byrnes – gbyrnes@decisionlens.com He loves this stuff. 17