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My Graduate Thesis Presentation
 

My Graduate Thesis Presentation

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Working with AECOM Environment, we address climate change mitigation at the community scale by providing recommendations for effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). We performed ...

Working with AECOM Environment, we address climate change mitigation at the community scale by providing recommendations for effective strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). We performed cost-benefit analyses on 20 GHG reduction strategies such as installing efficient appliances, taking public transit and installing solar panels. Combined with relevant geographic requirements, these analyses informed development of our software model and serve as the basis for tailored GHG reduction plans. Dubbed SAFEGUARD, our software prioritizes reduction strategies based on cost effectiveness.

SAFEGUARD addresses the political feasibility of implementing strategies by allowing the user to override the software’s economic prioritization. Accompanying the software is a user manual and detailed methods describing the processes used to build the model and determine the required inputs. We have created a useful tool for consultants and governments to determine optimal greenhouse gas reduction strategies at the community scale.

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  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
  • Ventura already completed local government inventory, but we need to address community-wide emissions <br /> No protocol for conducting community inventories <br /> Sources included: electricity, natural gas, transportation fuels, waste generation (table) <br /> **insert graph <br />
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  • Assumptions <br /> Community goals inline w/AB 32 <br /> Cost and benefit averages <br /> but changeable <br /> Limitations <br /> Strategy overlaps <br /> Applicability <br /> Outside of CA? <br /> Scalable? <br />
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  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
  • all the strategies combined let us achieve a 60% reduction in emissions from business as usual <br />
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  • -we&#x2019;ve been pleasantly surprised at the <br />
  • -we&#x2019;ve been pleasantly surprised at the <br />
  • -we&#x2019;ve been pleasantly surprised at the <br />
  • -we&#x2019;ve been pleasantly surprised at the <br />
  • -help communities get started with answering the question of reducing emissions <br /> -consulting companies can streamline their work as they enter into this emerging field <br /> -one of the first attempts to prioritize strategies at the community level <br />
  • -help communities get started with answering the question of reducing emissions <br /> -consulting companies can streamline their work as they enter into this emerging field <br /> -one of the first attempts to prioritize strategies at the community level <br />
  • -help communities get started with answering the question of reducing emissions <br /> -consulting companies can streamline their work as they enter into this emerging field <br /> -one of the first attempts to prioritize strategies at the community level <br />
  • -help communities get started with answering the question of reducing emissions <br /> -consulting companies can streamline their work as they enter into this emerging field <br /> -one of the first attempts to prioritize strategies at the community level <br />
  • feel free to try this out for yourself, the web address will show in just a minute <br />
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My Graduate Thesis Presentation My Graduate Thesis Presentation Presentation Transcript

  • Community Greenhouse Gas Solutions Prioritizing Emissions-Reducing Strategies MICHAELCONRARDY GAVINFEIGER ALLISONKING AARONSOBEL JUSTINWHITTET advised by ORANYOUNG
  • Cost-Effectiveness Geographic Constraints Political Feasibility
  • “We simply must do everything we can in power to slow down global warming before it is too late... I say the debate is over. We know the science.We see the threat and we know the time for action is now.” -Arnold Schwarzenegger Governor, California
  • Annual California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) 480 2005 2000 440 1990 1995 400 Source: California Air Resources Board, 2009
  • Annual California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) Source: California Air Resources Board, 2009
  • Annual California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) 480 2005 AB-32 2000 440 1990 2020 1995 400 Source: California Air Resources Board, 2009
  • Annual California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) 1990 2005 2050 Source: California Air Resources Board, 2009
  • Annual California Greenhouse Gas Emissions (in million tonnes of CO2 equivalent) 500 1990 2005 Executive Order S-3-05 250 2050 0 Source: California Air Resources Board, 2009
  • Community Significance
  • Ventura, CA
  • Ventura, CA Our Case Study Environmentally Inspired Proximity to UCSB CCAR Reported
  • Ventura Emissions Baseline 2007
  • Ventura Emissions Baseline 2007 Gasoline 750,305 tonnes CO2e Electricity Natural Gas Diesel Waste
  • Emissions Reduction 900000 Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 2020 Emissions 300000 Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Emissions Reduction 900000 Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 2020 Emissions 300000 Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Emissions Reduction 900000 U BA Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 2020 Emissions 300000 Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Emissions Reduction 900000 U BA Re du ctio nT arg et Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 2020 Emissions 300000 Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Emissions Reduction 900000 U BA Re du ctio nT arg et Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 2020 Emissions 300000 Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • consumption paveme Urban agricultu reduce materi new technology reduction ideas idling monitoring fleets community population Behavio Forests composting change landfills buildings work solar & auditing density lawn Wa cooling lights low green limits Aaron ho me off-set improve heatshare growth ffic tra gardening fuel carsoff-peak Allison recovery Justin carpooli Aaron ump landscaping reco very public geothermal anting ng reduce use driver ownershi investments natural cal domestic minimum competition
  • consumption paveme Urban agricultu reduce materi new technology reduction ideas idling monitoring fleets community population Behavio Forests composting change landfills buildings work solar & auditing density lawn Wa cooling lights low green limits Aaron ho me off-set improve heatshare growth ffic tra gardening fuel carsoff-peak Allison recovery Justin carpooli Aaron ump landscaping reco very public geothermal anting ng reduce use driver ownershi investments natural cal domestic minimum competition
  • Efficient Low Carbon LED Lighting Fuel Ceiling Renewable Portfoli Water Heaters Compact Standards Methane Electricity Traffic Signal Insulation LED Timing Tire Fluorescent Street Pressure Lamps Public Efficient Air Tree Conditioning Low Flow Lights Plantin California Fuel Toilets Transit Rainwater g Efficiency Collection Efficient BikeCool Roofs Standards Showers Infrastructu
  • Low Flow Toilets Rainwater Collection Efficient Showers
  • Water Savings
  • Water Savings 50% Ventura, CA’s Municipal GHG Emissions (Ventura Environmental Services, 2007)
  • Water Savings
  • Water Savings 19
  • Water Savings
  • Water Savings
  • Efficient Low Carbon LED Lighting Fuel Ceiling Renewable Portfoli Water Heaters Compact Standards Methane Electricity Traffic Signal Insulation LED Timing Tire Fluorescent Street Pressure Lamps Public Efficient Air Tree Conditioning Low Flow Lights Plantin California Fuel Toilets Transit Rainwater g Efficiency Collection Efficient BikeCool Roofs Standards Showers Infrastructu
  • LED Lighting Efficient Ceiling Water Heaters Compact Insulation Fluorescent Lamps Efficient Air Conditioning Cool Roofs
  • Building Efficiency
  • Building Efficiency 48% United States GHG Emissions (Architecture 2030, 2009)
  • Building Efficiency Lighting
  • Building Efficiency Lighting
  • Building Efficiency Lighting HVAC
  • Building Efficiency Lighting HVAC Insulation
  • Efficient Low Carbon LED Lighting Fuel Ceiling Renewable Portfoli Water Heaters Compact Standards Methane Electricity Traffic Signal Insulation LED Timing Tire Fluorescent Street Pressure Lamps Public Efficient Air Tree Conditioning Low Flow Lights Plantin California Fuel Toilets Transit Rainwater g Efficiency Collection Efficient BikeCool Roofs Standards Showers Infrastructu
  • Low Carbon Fuel Traffic Signal Tire Timing Pressure Public Transit California Fuel Efficiency Bike Standards Infrastructu
  • Transportation
  • Transportation 38% 2004 California GHG Commission, 2008) (California Energy Emissions
  • Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT)
  • Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Gallon (MPG)
  • Transportation Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) Miles Per Gallon (MPG) Low Carbon Fuel
  • Geographic Economic Political
  • Geographic Climate Built Environment Economic Transportation Demographics Utilities Political
  • Cost-Benefit Analysis Geographic Strategy-by-Strategy Net Present Value Payback Period Economic Cost-Effectiveness Optimized Strategy Choices Highest (Emissions/Dollar) Ratio Political
  • Geographic Customizable Preferences Adjustable Discount Rate Adjustable Level of Application Ability to Override Economic Economic Analysis(Force a Strategy or Veto it) Minimize Payback Time or Minimize Upfront Cost Political
  • Demo
  • Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020
  • Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 900000 Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 State Strategies 300000 Selected Strategies Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 900000 U BA Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 State Strategies 300000 Selected Strategies Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 900000 U BA Re du ctio nT arg et Metric Tonnes of CO2e 600000 State Strategies 300000 Selected Strategies Waste Diesel Gasoline Natural Gas Electricity 0 2007 2020
  • Reduction to 1990 levels by 2020 Low Flow Showerheads LED lights Efficient Water Heaters CFL lights Public Transit Bicycle Infrastructure
  • Fuel Efficiency Standard Renewable Energy Portfolio Low Carbon Fuel Standard Tire Pressure Program Low Flow Showers LED Lighting Water Heaters CFL Bulbs Public Transit Bicycle Infrastructure
  • Fuel Efficiency Standard Renewable Energy Portfolio Low Carbon Fuel Standard $55,400,000 Tire Pressure Program Low Flow Showers annual savings LED Lighting Water Heaters CFL Bulbs $68,000,000 Public Transit Bicycle Infrastructure upfront capital cost
  • 2050 Reductions Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 BAU 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 BAU 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 2050 Target 80% below 1990 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 BAU 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 2050 Target 80% below 1990 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 BAU 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 2050 Target 80% below 1990 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • 2050 Reductions 1200000 BAU 900000 Metric Tonnes CO2e 600000 300000 2050 Target 80% below 1990 0 Estimated 1990 City’s Political 50% 100% Emissions Feasibility Feasibility Feasibility
  • Assumptions Increased Home Insulation Solar Photovoltaic Panels
  • Assumptions City 1990 Emissions Increased Home Insulation scaled to CA 1990 Strategy Assumptions BAU Growth 1% Discount Rate 4% Solar Photovoltaic Panels
  • Public Transportation Planting Trees
  • Next Steps Public Transportation Increased Accuracy of Political Feasibility Planting Trees More Strategies Utilization
  • Increased Fuel Efficiency Cool Roofs
  • Conclusions Increased Fuel Efficiency Starting Point for Communities Communities & Consultancies Cool Roofs First Attempts to Prioritize Strategies
  • Acknowledgments Craig Whan, Rob Larkin & Gabriel Brown (AECOM) Oran Young & Sarah Anderson (Bren School) Joe Yahner (City of Ventura, CA) Our Friends & Family
  • “The 21st century will see monumental change. Either the human race will use its knowledge and skills and change the way it interacts with the environment, or the environment will change the way it interacts with its inhabitants.”
  • “The 21st century will see monumental change. Either the human race will use its knowledge and skills and change the way it interacts with the environment, or the environment will change the way it interacts with its inhabitants.” -Ernst von Weizsäcker Former Dean, Bren School & Author of Factor 5
  • brenaecom.org/safeguard