Innovative Policies for Implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation on Urban Roads Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands Urban Transport Conference 2006 13th July 2006
Structure of presentation
Safety issue on road and contribution of Intelligent Speed Adaptation to traffic safety goal
Uncertainties related to implementation of ISA in real world and shortcomings of traditional policymaking
Adaptive Policymaking Approach
Alternative approach for policymaking
Development of an Adaptive Policy for the Implementation of Intelligent Speed Adaptation
Conclusions and Recommendations
ROAD TRANSPORT PROBLEM
Safety is one of the major concerns of the transportation system.
40,000 fatalities and 1.7 million injuries due to road traffic accidents in the EU.
Speeding of vehicles contributes to 1/3 of road accidents.
Various actions have been taken to combat the problem of speeding but still the target has not been achieved.
Enforcing current speed limits has the potential to reduce fatalities and injuries substantially.
Intelligent Speed Adaptation
Beacon GPS Background
UNCERTAINTIES RELATED TO ISA IMPLEMENTATION
Organisational and Legal uncertainties
External factors like transport demand and technological development affecting the road transport system
WHY UNCERTAIN? : Has been tested only by small scale implementation and simulation studies under ‘laboratory’ conditions. Hence effect of large scale implementation in real world is uncertain. Problem
SHORTCOMINGS OF TRADITIONAL POLICYMAKING
Single static policy
Assumptions go wrong or trend breaking scenario
No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system.
Problem Identify the problem Analyze and compare alternatives Selection & screening of alternatives Develop scenarios Decide on outcomes of interest Specify objectives Implement alternative or policy Monitor and evaluate results Traditional policymaking
Does not attempt to “see the future”, but adapts to changing conditions
An adaptive plan includes
ways to monitor changes in external factors
actions to take in the future for a range of external developments
An adaptive plan responds to changes over time and makes explicit provision for learning
Adaptive Policymaking Approach Source : Walker et al. 2001 Constraints certain uncertain
Traditional decisionmaking versus Adaptive decisionmaking D1 Today Future D2 D3 Today Future Monitor Monitor Monitor D2 D1 D3
Considering the accident scenario in NL, measures taken to reduce speed on road, and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that should be implemented.
Congestion on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation
Average travel time on the road should not increase due to ISA implementation
Air & Noise pollution should not increase due to ISA implementation
Definition of Success :
Reduction by 25% in fatalities and 22%, in hospitalised victims due to road accidents by 2010 (as compared to the figures of 2003)
Attaining V90 – speed of 90% of vehicles must be within the speed limit
Reduction in traffic fatalities and hospitalised victims due to speeding of vehicles on road. (Dutch Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management as problem owner)
Developing an Adaptive Policy for ISA Implementation Step 1 - Stage setting
Step 2 - Assembling the Basic Policy
Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation
The basic policy is implemented for unsafe roads , unsafe vehicles , unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions .
Policy Specifications : Urban roads, Cars and Young drivers (18-34 years)
Necessary Conditions of Success
Factors like speed, speed distribution and speed offences on urban roads should decrease.
Availability of reliable communication system and accurate speed data.
Acceptance among users- penetration level of 60%
Dynamic Voluntary ISA is selected to be implemented
Step 3 – Specifying the rest of the Policy Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Signposts Dependence on the system by the users (uncertain)
Training programs to use ISA
Installation of black boxes and/or developing user report
Accidents involving ISA users
Low user acceptance (uncertain)
Advertisements, workshops & campaigns
Penetration level of ISA
Reliability of ISA in times of incidental speed limit (certain) Temporary vehicle – roadway communication- beacon Hedging Actions
Step 4 – Implementation Phase
Basic policy is implemented after agreeing upon the basic policy, vulnerabilities, signposts & critical value of the triggers and adaptive responses.
The signposts are monitored and information is collected and when critical trigger level is reached defensive or corrective actions are taken.
Signposts Defensive action Corrective action
Penetration level of ISA
Increase speeding fines
Confiscate driver’s license
Implement ISA on mandatory basis
Increase the policy scope (driver of all ages or on all road categories)
Penetration level less than 1% per month
If the trigger level causes re-thinking of objectives/constraints, perform reassessment e.g.: malfunctioning of ISA resulted in large accident.
ISA has positive impact in reducing road traffic fatalities and injuries due to speeding.
Policies developed by the traditional approach are not flexible to the changing circumstances and doesn’t incorporate learning over time .
The adaptive policymaking approach is a more logical and systematic procedure to deal with uncertainties compared to traditional policymaking for ISA implementation on large scale.