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dealing with uncertainties Presentation Transcript

  • 1. “ Dealing With UNCERTAINTIES in implementing Intelligent Speed Adaptation - An Adaptive Policymaking Approach” By: Vishal Mehta Faculty of Technology, Policy and Management Delft University of Technology
  • 2. Structure of the Presentation
    • Problem outline
    • Adaptive policymaking Approach
    • Research Question
    • Research methodology
    • ISA and its impacts
    • Thinking Phase
    • Step 1
    • Step 2
    • Step 3
    • Implementation phase
    • Conclusions and Recommendations
  • 3. Problem Outline
    • Accidents on road
    • In Netherlands there were 1082 deaths and 19,000 injuries in road traffic in 2001.
    • The estimated accident cost is around 7 billion US$ per year in Netherlands.
    • Also in EU there are 42,500 deaths and 3.5 million injuries in road traffic.
    SPEED of the vehicle contributes 1/3 of the total road accidents. Speed targets [NL] for 2000 were 5-10% lower avg. Speed than 1985 and V90
    • Actions
    • Road categorisation
    • Speed limit for each road
    • Intro to black boxes
    • Roundabouts
    • Optical lane narrowing
    • Dynamic warning signs
    • Airbags and seat belts
    • Speed cameras and police surveillance
    Implementing these actions, the speed targets were not achieved and also 40% reduction in deaths and 28% reduction in injury level due to accident on road [target for 2010] still needs to be attained.
  • 4.
    • Intelligent Speed Adaptation [ISA]
    • A promising branch of ADAS to improve traffic safety on the road
    • Controls the speed of the vehicle as per the speed limit of the road.
    • Reduces fatalities due to accident on road ranging from 18% to 59% for different kinds of ISA.
    Problem Outline
    • Uncertainties related to ISA implementation
    • New Technology
    • Only small scale and simulation studies
    • User acceptance
    • Standards for implementing
    • Organisational, legal and technological uncertainties
    • Effects of external factors to the system
  • 5.
    • From a policymaking point of view it is important to deal with these uncertainties as ISA seems to substantially contribute to the goal of traffic safety.
    Problem Outline
    • Shortcomings
    • Any scenario has zero probability of occurrence.
    • Trend breaking scenarios
    • Assumptions
    • Single static policy
    • No rethinking about the policy in accordance with the changing information in the system.
    • Traditional Policy making approach is categorised as sit and wait attitude towards dealing with uncertainties.
    Identify the problem Analyze and compare alternatives Selection & screening of alternatives Develop scenarios Decide on outcomes of interest Specify objectives Implement alternative or policy Monitor and evaluate results Traditional policy making
  • 6. The Adaptive Policymaking Approach Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain Uncertain IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
  • 7. Research Question “ How can Adaptive Policy be developed to deal with vulnerabilities [uncertainties] in implementing ISA [as a policy option] in existing Dutch Transportation System?"
    • Research Methodology [framework of Adaptive Policymaking Approach is adopted]
    • Literature study – Road Transportation system, Intelligent Speed Adaptation, Intelligent Transport Systems, Advanced Driver Assistance Systems, Dutch transport system and Adaptive Policy making.
    • Basic Analysis – System model, Actor &Network Analysis and Objective Analysis
    • Developing Adaptive Policy
    • Step 1 – Identifying the objective [reduce accidents], constraints , policy option [ISA] and definition of success.
    • Step 2 – Specifying the basic policy for implementation and identifying the necessary conditions of success.
    • Step 3 – Identifying vulnerabilities related mitigating and hedging actions and their signposts and trigger level for each signposts.
    • Step 4 – Functioning of the policy during implementation and what policy actions – defensive or corrective or reassessment are to be taken in response to change in signpost information.
  • 8. Intelligent Speed Adaptation
    • Types of ISA
    • By Automation level
    • Advisory
    • Voluntary
    • Mandatory
    • By function
    • Fixed
    • Variable
    • Dynamic
    9 combinations of ISA are possible
  • 9. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture(GPS) A N A L Y S I S Brake Pedals Sensors Intelligence [CPU] Actuators Buttons Wheel rotation Wheel speed GPS Navigator Engine Speed Throttle Control Systems
    • Display Panel
    • Position: Latitude &
    • Longitude
    • Location:
      • Road
    • Direction
    • Speed limit
    • Distance from destination
    • Others
    Application software MAPS
    • Data
      • Vehicle speed
    • Velocity
    • Location & time
    • Engine speed
    • Overriding %
    • Driver’s ID & behaviour
    Data Processing Transmission to server via GSM Data Structuring CDAS GPS receiver Satellite Speed limits Memory Communication system
  • 10. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – System Architecture (Beacon) Vehicle Beacon Transmission tower Main Server
  • 11. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Functions of different system components of ISA and its hierarchy System Function Subsystem Function Equipment Function ISA Controlling and adjusting the speed of the vehicle on the road according to the speed limit posted. Global Positioning System GPS helps in positioning or locating the moving vehicle on the road. Control Systems Controls the operation of the system installed in the vehicles. It senses the vehicular motion - processes it and actuates the control system to control the speed. C-DAS Collection and data acquisition about individual vehicle and their movement on the road. Beacons The beacon transfers the signal about the speed limit to the vehicle. Satellite Locating the vehicle on the road and sending the signal (micro/radio wave) to the vehicle about its position in latitude and longitude. Antenna & Preamplifier Processes the received signals send by the satellite and forward it to the navigator. GPS Navigator Reads the signal received and displays the vehicle on the map stored with software in CD and also speed limit for each road. It helps in navigating the vehicle to the destination. Sensors Senses wheel rotation and brake status and sends information to CPU. CPU Information on wheel rotation & location of the vehicle or by beacon is processed & speed limit is identified from stored data. Actuators After receiving the processed information about the speed limit, it controls the speed of the vehicle on the road and offers resistance if the driver attempts to override and apply active braking. GPS Beacon
  • 12. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects Different tests on effects of ISA on road transport system have been done in United Kingdom, Sweden, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany, France, etc.
    • Accidents [100% penetration level]
    Advisory ISA Mandatory ISA Source UK Leeds 59 48 36 Dynamic 39 31 22 Variable 37 29 20 Fixed Mandatory ISA 32 26 18 Dynamic 20 16 11 Variable 19 15 10 Fixed Voluntary ISA 24 18 13 Dynamic 19 14 10 Variable 18 14 10 Fixed Advisory ISA Best estimate of fatal accident reduction (death) (%) Best estimate of fatal and serious accident reduction (%) Best estimate of injury accident reduction (%) Speed limit type ISA Type 48.5 20 7.5 All injury Non Built up Adverse weather and road surface 48.5 20 0 All injury Unlit Dual Carriageway Darkness 20 10 0 All injury Non Built up Geometry related 19.4 6.5 0 All injury Built up 25 17.5 8.7 All injury Non built up General speed limit advice High “ BEST” Low Estimated accident reduction [%] Severity Road type Application 80 57 33 Snow 50 30 10 Rain and wet road 50 37 23 Darkness All injury Non built up roads Dynamic 74 41 30 Geometry- based single carriageway All injury Non built up roads Variable 20 15 10 Non pedestrian All injury All built up roads 28 21 13.5 Pedestrian All injury All built up roads 56 31 10 All All injury Non built up roads Fixed High “ BEST” Low estimated accident reduction [%] Accident type Severity Road type System
  • 13. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects
    • Speed Distribution and Speed
    Source UK Leeds Source: Sweden Source: Sweden n.a. -1.1 97.3 -7.4% -9.5% 12.4% 110 km/h -3.4 -2.5 84.4 -11.4% -16.7% 25.1% 90 km/h -3.0 -2.8 58.7 -9.4% -13.0% 21.4% 70 km/h -1.5 -1.5 38.7 -11.8% -16.4% 31.1% 50 km/h -0.6 -0.6 25.3 -3.4% -9.6% 33.8% 30 km/h Borlange - informative -2.0 -2.0 58.7 -13.6% -18.1% 35.9% 70 km/h -1.23 -1.1 36.4 -12.8% -15.0% 28.2% 50 km/h -0.2 -0.8 21.9 -6.9% -14.1% 33.7% 30 km/h Lund active gas 2 nd period 1 st period 2 nd period 1 st period After ISA Before ISA After ISA Before ISA Average speed reduction km/h Speed offences reduction % Variable
  • 14. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Network Effects
    • It also has other effects like
    • Decrease in Fuel Consumption
    • Decrease in Emissions
    • Improves Traffic flow and road capacity
    • Travel time almost remains the same
    • Driver feels more taxing, irritating, frustrating, under stress, etc.
    BUT all these ISA results are based on small scale and simulation studies, so it is uncertain that it the impacts on large scale implementation and in real world would be same as discussed in results
  • 15. Intelligent Speed Adaptation – Test in Netherlands
    • A study into the costs and benefits of lowering speeds of cars in the Netherlands has shown that enforcing the current speed limits would lead to a reduction in the number of hospital admissions by 15% and in the number of fatalities by 21%.
    • Fuel consumption and carbon dioxide emissions would decrease by 11% and the emission of nitrogen oxides by 11%.
    • Positive effects would lead to a decrease in the cost to society worth a total of US$ 250 million per year in the Netherlands.
    • The interaction between the ISA drivers and non-ISA drivers can lead to undesirable manoeuvres by the non-ISA drivers while passing or tailgating.
    User Acceptance Speed Patterns Source: -NL Test RWS 30km/h 50km/h 80km/h
  • 16. The Adaptive Policymaking Approach In the following slides adaptive policy is developed. Defensive Actions Corrective Actions Reassessment Other Actions Unforeseen events Changing preferences THINKING PHASE I. STAGE SETTING II. ASSEMBLING THE BASIC POLICY Definition of success Constraints Policy Option set Objectives Necessary condition for success Basic Policy III. SPECIFYING REST OF POLICY Vulnerabilities Mitigating Actions Hedging Actions Sign Posts Triggers Certain Uncertain IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
  • 17. Step 1 – Stage Setting
    • Objective
    • Traffic Safety : Reduction in accidents [problem owner]
    • Setting Policy Option
    • Considering the accident scenario in NL and speed accident relationship and positive effects of ISA in reducing accidents Intelligent Speed Adaptation is selected as a policy option that has to be implemented.
  • 18.
    • Constraints
    • Financial constraints
    • Congestion on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
    • Average travel time on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
    • Air and Noise pollution should not increase because of ISA
    Step 1 – Stage Setting Actors and Stakeholders involved in implementing ISA Authorities Market constellation Demand side constellation Supply side constellation Ministry of Transport, Public Works and Water Management- NL European Union Local Municipalities Law enforcement agencies Automobile Industry [National and EU] Original Equipment Manufacturers for ISA Service Providers [speed data and communication] Road Operators Insurance companies Research institutes and universities Transport companies Drivers/Users Motorists Other road users Traffic police Environmental Agencies
  • 19. Step 1 – Stage Setting
    • Definition of Success
    • Reduction of road fatalities to 750 and injuries to 14,000 by 2010
    • Achieving the V90 target
    • Congestion travel time Air and Noise pollution on the road should not increase because of ISA implementation
    System Diagram
  • 20. Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy
    • Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation
      • The basic policy is implemented for unsafe road , unsafe vehicles , unsafe drivers and unsafe traffic conditions .
    Categories for implementation Infrastructure: Road category of Motorway, Highway, Rural road or Urban road Vehicle: Cars, Light vehicle or Heavy vehicle, motorbikes, etc. Driver: Can be categorised by Age, Driving Experience, Commercial or Private Drivers, etc. Traffic Conditions: High or Low Traffic density areas, Mixed or Homogenous traffic conditions Type of ISA: By Automation level – Advisory, Voluntary &Mandatory : By function of speed – Static, Variable and Dynamic Communication Technology: GPS or Beacon Environment: Weather conditions, lighting conditions, road surface, visibility, etc. Environment Infrastructure Vehicle Driver Other road users & traffic conditions
    • Intelligent Speed Adaptation
    • By Level of Automation
    • By Function
    • Communication technology
  • 21. Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy Specifying the basic policy [ISA] for implementation
    • Specifying the road category – unsafe roads- URBAN ROADS [30-80km/h]
    • Specifying the vehicle type – unsafe vehicle - CARS
    • Specifying the user group – unsafe drivers – YOUNG DRIVERS [18-34 yrs.]
    • Specifying the traffic density and traffic conditions - ALL
    • Specifying the type of ISA – VOLUNTARY DYNAMIC ISA
    • Specifying the communication technology – GPS & BEACON
    Hence the basic policy to be implemented is Voluntary Dynamic ISA on Urban roads for Young Car drivers . The basic policy is implemented on voluntary basis and not on mandatory basis.
  • 22. Step 2 – Assembling Basic Policy Necessary Conditions of Success
    • Economic conditions
    • Social conditions
    • Technical/Technological conditions
    • Organizational and Political conditions
    • Legal conditions
    • System related conditions
    Positive Net Present Value and Market Success
    • NPV
    • Consumer demand
    User Acceptance Accurate speed limit data Reliable communication technology Operational reliability of ISA Cooperation between Actors and Stakeholders Developing Standards Liability Issue in times of accident Privacy Issues Decrease in speed and speed distribution [on higher side]
    • Penetration level
    • Rate of penetration level
    • Cases with wrongly posted speed limit
    • Cases with lack of communication signal
    • Cases with malfunction of ISA system
    • Interest of actors and stakeholders
    • involved in implementation
    • Change in speed and speed offences on road
    Indicators
  • 23. Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy Identifying Vulnerabilities
    • Market Failure
    • User acceptance
    • Legal barriers
    • ISA Operation problems
    • Transport demand
    • Economic change
    • Fuel price
    • Technology advancement
    Uncertainty about the effect of ISA on internal factors of system : like speed, speed distribution, speed offences, traffic density, owning &operating cost. Policy Making Process Policies Policy Maker Problem owner and Stakeholders Goals, Objective & Preferences External factors System domain for policies Internal factors Outcomes of interest ISA Uncertainty related to change in stance of actors in implementing ISA Uncertainty about desire value of the outcomes and valuation by actor as ISA is a new technology
  • 24. Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy
    • Mitigating Actions and Hedging Actions
    • These actions are to be implemented now
    • Mitigating actions are developed for certain vulnerabilities and Hedging actions are developed for uncertain vulnerabilities.
    • Example:
    • User Acceptance – uncertain
    • Hedging Actions
      • Training programs to use ISA
      • Incentives
      • Advertisements and campaigns
      • User report
    • Signposts
    • Monitoring systems
    • Information collected during implementation
    • User Acceptance
    • Rate of Penetration level
    • Results of user report
  • 25. Step 3 – Specifying the Rest of the Policy
    • Triggers
    • Critical Value of the Signpost.
    • Policy Actions would be taken in response to the change in trigger level.
    Identifying and Handling Triggers Success Criteria Time limit Signposts Desired values Undesired or Critical values Regret Level 1 [less critical] Regret Level 2 [more critical] Conditions of reassessment POLICY ACTION Triggers 60% penetration level Rate of Penetration Increase in 1% / month Less than 1% per month 0.7% to 0.9% rate of penetration per month for 1 year 0.5% to 0.7% rate of penetration per month for 1 year Condition of Reassessment POLICY ACTION 5 years
  • 26. Implementation Phase Signpost 1 Signpost 2 Signpost n Collect I N F O R M A T I O N YES NO NO ACTION Decide critical value attained Check Regret level Level 1 Level 2 Defensive Action Corrective Action Desired change in regret level YES NO Step 1 restart again YES NO Reassessment Check Conditions of Reassessment
  • 27. Implementation Phase
    • Defensive actions are the one which are taken to defend the policy
    • Corrective actions are related change in basic policy or policy action or change in definition of success
    • Conditions of Reassessment
    Contd. With the example of user acceptance Signpost – Rate of Penetration level
    • Regret level 1 – Defensive actions
    • Increase in speeding fines so that people prefer to buy ISA rather than paying fine
    • More Incentives
    • Regret level 2 – Corrective actions
    • Introduce ISA on Mandatory basis
    • Implement for all age drivers or all road category.
    Condition of Reassessment The rate of penetration level is not increasing over the period of time or has increased but later decreases
  • 28.
    • Conclusions
    • Related to ISA
    • Implementation surrounded by uncertainties
    • User acceptance is the most important necessary condition of success.
    • Related to Adaptive Policymaking
    • Logical and systematic way of dealing with uncertainties as compared to traditional policy making
    • Lot of legal and political support is required
    • Recommendations
    • Related to ISA
    • Issues to be addressed before implementation of ISA are Legal and Technical operations of ISA system.
    • Related to Adaptive Policymaking
    • Development of more analytical tools which would help in developing policy and also during implementation