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6 3 ghazi alam - assessment of impacts of water transfers to urban-industrial sectors- updated 12-27

6 3 ghazi alam - assessment of impacts of water transfers to urban-industrial sectors- updated 12-27






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    6 3 ghazi alam - assessment of impacts of water transfers to urban-industrial sectors- updated 12-27 6 3 ghazi alam - assessment of impacts of water transfers to urban-industrial sectors- updated 12-27 Presentation Transcript

    • Assessment of the impacts of watertransfers to urban-industrial sectors on irrigation outcomes in the Indus Basin Y. C. Ethan Yang1, Ghazi Alam2 & Claudia Ringler3 1/U of Massachusetts, 2/Cornell U./NESPAK, 3/ IFPRI
    • Urban-industrial water use Urban-industrial water use in Pakistan is currently almost entirely met by groundwater (GW) sources Given the rapid increase in urban-industrial water demand in recent years and projected out into the future, there is a high risk that GW tables in major cities might become saline, requiring rural-to-urban water transfers This paper assesses the implications on agricultural production
    • Modeling- Data used (1) This study modified the Indus River Basin Model Revised (IBMR) to evaluate the effect of transferring irrigated water to domestic and industrial (D&I) water use The IBMR in its most recent revision is significantly different, from its original version that was developed in the 1970s, having undergone several revisions over the past three decades.
    • Modeling- Data used (1) Utilizing Non-linear programming techniques and advancements in computing power, the IBMR in its current form gives a fairly accurate description of the Indus Basin Agricultural and Hydrologic System. D&I water uses in nine major cities located in Pakistan are considered in the modeling framework Utility function of D&I water uses are derived from water demand curve (based on historical water demand-price relationship) for both domestic and industrial water
    • Modeling- Data used (1) Surface water is assumed to be diverted from the closest irrigated canal Groundwater is assumed to be unlimited Canals Cities 02-CBD Lahore 04-UC Gujranwala 11-JHA Faisalabad 17-SID Multan 22-USW Rawalpindi Islamabad 25-KAB Peshawar 39-ROH Hyderabad 42-KAL Karachi
    • Modeling- Data used (1) Water demand (Sutton 2009) Major Industry Water demand group (MAF)Textile 1.103Chemical 0.167Paper 0.085Food 0.078 Industrial production (CMI 2005-06 survey) BALOCHI ISLAM Group PAKISTAN PUNJAB SINDH NWFP STAN ABADTextile 1328 764 447 74 42 1Chemical 493 213 167 69 28 16Paper 133 71 29 27 4 2Food 1861 1122 556 118 36 29
    • Indus Basin Model (Revised)--Structure
    • Domestic-Industrial water transfers Two different scenarios: S 1: No cap for groundwater pumping but pumping cost will increase with groundwater depth S 2: Cap total groundwater pumping at 50 MAF (safe yield for the system) and pumping cost will increase with groundwater depth  Note: The Safe Yield may be adjusted to any figure in the IBMR, it is the entirely the modeler’s choice.
    • Dom&Ind transfers—water diversions (S1) Surface water GroundwaterOptimized combinations of GW and SW resources
    • Dom&Ind transfers—decline in water table (ft) (S1)Change in depth to water table: Punjab most affected
    • Dom&Ind water transfers—crop profit (S1)Slight reduction from dom&ind competition, decline inbenefit from increasing pumping cost as GW tablescontinue to decline
    • Dom&Ind water transfers—change in crop profits (S1) (in percent) 0-0.1-0.2-0.3-0.4 GW pumping increases by 7%. Crop production decline by 0.01%.
    • Dom&Ind water transfers—crop profit (S2)Larger decline in total and crop benefits when GW islimited.
    • Dom&Ind water transfers—total benefits (S2In drought years, industrial production declines due towater scarcity.
    • Dom&Ind water transfers—change in crop profits (S2) (in percent)1510 5 0 -5-10-15-20 GW pumping decline by 14%. Crop production decline by 5.2%.
    • Impacts of D&I transfer on provincial irrigation profitsCrop benefit change Scenario Scenario (%) 1 2 Punjab -0.94 -1.82 Sindh -0.29 -0.74 Others* 4.86 8.24 *Others shows benefits, but production is low.
    • Conclusions Using only surface water for D&I uses is insufficient when Water Accord is enforced (results not shown) When groundwater is unlimited, the impact on crop profits is small, but the water table (especially in Punjab) would drop dramatically If total groundwater pumping is capped at safe yield, crop profit will decrease 5.2% In very dry years, industrial output is affected by water scarcity
    • Conclusions Major crop productions such as: basmati and irrigated rice, wheat and sugarcane will suffer larger impacts Groundwater tables will continue to decline (and will do so even more with continued population increase) D&I transfers reduce crop profits particularly in Punjab, followed by Sindh, while other provinces show slight improvements
    • Policy recommendations GW tables likely to continually decline, salinization will increase and urban GW sources are threatened Rural-to-urban water transfers common in many water-scarce countries and likely to occur in Pakistan as well Food production impacts depend on the specific canals from which water is transferred to urban/industrial areas can study alternatives
    • Policy recommendations Impacts on rural incomes will depend on how and if farmers are compensated for the rural-to- urban water transfers Irrigation sustainability will depend on irrigation service providers being able to charge urban/industrial consumers Given scarce/fragile GW resources in parts of Pakistan, important to more efficiently use SW resources (additional ongoing research with the Punjab Irrigation Department)