Climate change impacts on food and water in Pakistan and Options for Adaptation by Andrew Bell

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Presentations made at the PSSP First Annual Conference - December 13, 14, 2012 - Planning Commission, Islamabad, Pakistan

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Climate change impacts on food and water in Pakistan and Options for Adaptation by Andrew Bell

  1. 1. IFPRI Climate change impacts on water and food in Pakistan and options for adaptation Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Tim Sulser, Andrew Bell, Mohsin IqbalINTERNATIONAL FOOD POLICY RESEARCH INSTITUTE
  2. 2. The IMPACT ModelModels global demand, yield, and trade of 38agricultural economies at country-level resolutionIMPACT-WATER model incorporates wateravailability across 126 basins as a driverDraws on supply, demand, and trade data fromFAOSTAT, UN, World Bank, IFPRIRuns scenarios for growth in urban area, population,income, or changes in yield or yield elasticities, etc.
  3. 3. Climate affects water and food through changes in temperature and precipitation Change in annual rainfall Change in max temperature (degree C) (mm) 2000 2050 2000 2050 Azad Kashmir 27.7 +1.4 to 3.2 765 -139 to +18 Baluchistan 38.6 +1.3 to 2.6 151 -3 to +55 F.A.T.A. 34.4 +1.7 to 4.1 482 -45 to +33 F.C.T. 38.6 +1.4 to 3.4 911 -105 to +12 N.W.F.P. 30.2 +1.5 to 3.5 609 -80 to +26 Northern Areas 17.0 +1.5 to 3.2 194 -14 to +51 Punjab 41.6 +1.4 to 2.6 299 -32 to +77 Sind 41.6 +1.2 to 2.7 171 +12 to +90 Scenarios: MIR-A1, ECH-A1, CSI-A1, CNR-A1 Source: IFPRI, 2012
  4. 4. Impact of CC on runoff Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  5. 5. Impact of CC irrigation Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  6. 6. Wheat yields (reference scenarios) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  7. 7. Global wheat prices (reference scenarios) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  8. 8. Rice yields (reference scenarios) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  9. 9. CC increases PAK net cereal imports Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  10. 10. Six Adaptation scenarios INC AG INC AG RES INC AG RES RES: w/EFF & IRR PAK4 (PAK3 +Parameters w/EFF: PAK_ST PAK_BE SRF_PAK EXP: PAK_BE) SRF_PAK2 1 SRF_PAK3Livestock n + 30% + 30% + 30% n.c. n.c. + 30%growth + 30% from + 30% from + 30% fromLivestock n.c. n.c. 2015 2015 2015yield n.c. + 50% from + 50% from + 50% fromgrowth n.c. n.c. 2030 2030 2030 + 60% + 60% n.c. n.c. + 60%Food crop + 78% from + 78% from + 78% from n.c. n.c.yield + 60% 2015 2015 2015growth + 90% from + 90% from + 90% from n.c. n.c. 2030 2030 2030Irrig effic n.c. +20% +20% +50% gradually untilStorage 2050, total 5.3 MAFIrrigated n.c. n.c. + 25% n.c. n.c. + 25%area growthRainfed n.c. n.c. - 15% n.c. n.c. - 15%area growth n.c. = no change
  11. 11. Average Yield Impact, Alternative AdaptationScenarios, 2050, compared to CC Scenarios Rice Wheat Maize Cotton90%80%70%60%50%40%30%20%10% 0% PAK1 PAK2 PAK3 PAK_ST PAK_BE PAK4Note: results are average of 4 CC and 1 noCC scenario runs. Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  12. 12. PAK wheat trade, alternative scenarios (mmt) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  13. 13. PAK rice trade, alternative scenarios (mmt) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  14. 14. KCAL consumption in 2010 and 2050 (NoCC and CC scenarios) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  15. 15. KCAL consumption in 2050(NoCC, CC, and adaptation scenarios) Source: IFPRI-IMPACT, 2012
  16. 16. Adaptation for irrigationNotes: IWSR values were averaged across four climate change scenarios and the NoCC case, for NoAdapt and the two water-based adaptation scenarios.
  17. 17. Conclusions Climate change impacts in Pakistan affect crop yields and food production negatively Cereal imports need to increase significantly as a result of climate change Investments in agricultural research and water can reduce the adverse impacts of CC Under the most far-reaching scenario, combining large investments in agricultural R&D and irrigation efficiency, PAK could become a net wheat exporter
  18. 18. Conclusions Irrigation water supply is relatively insensitive to storage augmentation, in part as only 5.3 MAF is added gradually over 40 years The most effective water-based adaptation is to invest in irrigation efficiency improvement, for which Pakistan has great potential Strong agricultural and water investments in PAK alone can improve PAK calorie availability under CC and thus help reduce malnutrition levels, but adverse CC impacts drive up prices globally; thus caloric improvement remains limited as higher global prices affect food affordability in PAK as well

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