The Futurists and Emerging Media

The Futurists
Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media
Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies

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Acheron LV426
Lyr Lobo’s
Experimental
Design island
Futuring and Innovation
Usability and Interaction
Advanced Game Design
Robotics
Software Requirements Engineering
Software Design
Systems Engineering Methods
The modern classroom

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Meeting minds - the value of social media, futuring and innovation in a virtual world

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Social Media and Co-Laboratories of Thought
Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions
Influences on potential innovations
Technology, economics, culture, ethics, legal, political
Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects
Social media culture shift – consumers become producers
Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis
Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration
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The one Web
We are the computer
From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]

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At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill
from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades
It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts
Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system
William Kamkwamba’s windmill – Ted Talks [1]

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Sustainability
Changing viewpoints
Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]

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A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into the walls.
In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace emerges. [2]

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Harmony
Cities are green
Stewart Brand on
Ted Talks
Bangkok train – co-existing
with the marketplace [2]

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The Influence of Social Media
Community
Turbo Tax chat
40% of customer questions were
answered by other customers
with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years
Disaster Response
May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake
90,000 lost, schools destroyed

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Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4]
Warning!
Sensitive content on the next slide

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First Response
When every minute counts [3]

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News in China
Twitter and Flickr
May 2008 Sichuan earthquake
School buildings not built to code [4]
Children lost from
single child families

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Clay Shirky – How social media can make history
Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap
Most of the media is no longer produced by professionals [4]

Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook

- The influence of social media
Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging
news broadcast real-time information on the aftermath of China’s earthquakes
June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to
Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days
before the anniversary of the
Tiananmen Square protests
“The tools don’t get socially
interesting until they get
technologically boring.” [4]
Consumers become producers
The same tools support them.
People listening all over the world
Twitter announced the quake first
During the previous quake, China announced it 3 months after it happened.
The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]

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Why do things work that way?
Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]
In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use
http://

Japan’s Technology Forecasts
Characteristics
Structured approach
Organized
Firms, universities
Feedback loops
Chief strategists (MITI)
Micromanagement
ERATO projects
Directing Japanese R&D investments
Bottom-up view, begins with
Firms
Universities, research institutes
National associations
Long term vision
Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC
Long term technology forecasts
Science & Tech Agency
Institute of Future Technology
Economic Planning Agency
JICST
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Technology Forecasters
Evolution
Scientific Discovery
Inventions
Science Fiction
Futurology
Tech Forecasting
Think Tanks
Rand Corporation
Forecasters
Forecast International
Futurists
Einstein
Inventors
Jules Verne
H.G. Wells
Herman Kahn
Dr. Strangelove
www.rand.org/
www.forecastinternational.com/
From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Think Tanks
Futurist, nuclear scientist,
and systems theorist
Predicted the rise of Japan
as a world power
Rand
Corporation, 1948
The Hudson Institute, 1961

Major Forecasting Techniques
Technique
Delphi method
Nominal group
Case study
S-Curve
Correlation analysis
Lead-user analysis
Analytic hierarchy
Systems dynamics
Cross-impact analysis
Relevance trees
Scenario writing
Description
Brainstorming
Delphi - leader
Analogous problems
Looking beyond trends
Past to future tech
Leading edge users
Forces influencing development
Dynamic relationships model
Interrelated future events
Goal trees & probability
Alternate future views
From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn
Nuclear explosives for excavation & power
Weather and climate control
More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior
Human hibernation – months to years
Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults
Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation
High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations
Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel
Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel
Undersea installations and colonies
From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan
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Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2
Automated grocery and department stores
Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks
Chemical methods for improving learning and memory
Greater use of underground buildings
Very low cost buildings for home and business use
Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams
Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo
Inexpensive road-free transportation
Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night
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From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan

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Global Learning Forum
Research consortium
Researchers and game designers
- Explore the potential
- Imagine breakthrough ideas
- Create transformations
New horizons in game simulation
and virtual world research
Blending social media and virtual worlds
This is not your grandmother’s internet

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Quantum Computing
Research
Matt Purkeypile on a Practical
Quantum Computer Programming Framework [6]

Gazing Into the Future
Web science research initiative
Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media
Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering
For more information, visit:
What is the Web Science Initiative
http://webscience.org/
Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world
http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum
The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation
http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page
http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/
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Resources
Teaching using emerging media
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/
Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds
http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations
Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html
http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html
http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html
http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw
Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video
http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html
Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music
http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ
Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ
Questions? Contact
Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net
Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo
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Lyr Lobo in Second Life

[1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill
http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html
[2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html
1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!
[3] Kdingflickr’sphotostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years
http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/
[4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history
http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html
[5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5qon Berners-Lee
http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece
[6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove
http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html
[7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.
[8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.
http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html
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References

Acknowledgements
Futuring and Innovation at Colorado Technical University
Matthew Purkeypile
Brent Wilson
David Graves
Maurice Dawson
Benjamin Herr
Will Henry
Carlton Lawrence
Katherine Moore
Anne Sempa
Tremayne Porter
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