The Futurists and Emerging Media


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Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media.

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The Futurists and Emerging Media

  1. 1. The Futurists<br />Teaching Futuring and Innovation with Emerging Media<br />Cynthia Calongne, The Institute for Advanced Studies<br />
  2. 2. 2<br />Acheron LV426<br />Lyr Lobo’s <br />Experimental<br />Design island<br />Futuring and Innovation<br />Usability and Interaction<br />Advanced Game Design<br />Robotics<br />Software Requirements Engineering<br />Software Design<br />Systems Engineering Methods<br />The modern classroom<br />
  3. 3. 3<br />Meeting minds - the value of social media, futuring and innovation in a virtual world<br />
  4. 4. 4<br />
  5. 5. Social Media and Co-Laboratories of Thought<br />Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions<br />Influences on potential innovations<br />Technology, economics, culture, ethics, legal, political<br />Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects<br />Social media culture shift – consumers become producers<br />Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis<br />Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration<br />5<br />
  6. 6. 6<br />
  7. 7. 7<br />
  8. 8. 8<br />The one Web<br />We are the computer<br />From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]<br />
  9. 9. 9<br />At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill<br />from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades<br />It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts<br />Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system<br />William Kamkwamba’s windmill – Ted Talks [1]<br />
  10. 10. 10<br />Sustainability<br />Changing viewpoints<br />Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2] <br />
  11. 11. 11<br />A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into the walls. <br />In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace emerges. [2]<br />
  12. 12. 12<br />Harmony<br />Cities are green<br />Stewart Brand on<br />Ted Talks<br />Bangkok train – co-existing<br />with the marketplace [2]<br />
  13. 13. 13<br />The Influence of Social Media<br />Community<br />Turbo Tax chat<br /> 40% of customer questions were<br /> answered by other customers<br /> with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years<br />Disaster Response<br />May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake<br /> 90,000 lost, schools destroyed<br />
  14. 14. 14<br />Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4]<br />Warning!<br /> Sensitive content on the next slide<br />
  15. 15. 15<br />First Response<br /> When every minute counts [3]<br />
  16. 16. 16<br />News in China<br />Twitter and Flickr<br />May 2008 Sichuan earthquake<br />School buildings not built to code [4]<br />Children lost from <br />single child families<br />
  17. 17. 17<br />Clay Shirky – How social media can make history<br />Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap<br />Most of the media is no longer produced by professionals [4]<br /><ul><li>Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook</li></ul>- The influence of social media<br />Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging<br />news broadcast real-time information on the aftermath of China’s earthquakes<br />June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to <br />Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days <br />before the anniversary of the <br />Tiananmen Square protests<br />“The tools don’t get socially <br />interesting until they get <br />technologically boring.” [4]<br />Consumers become producers<br />The same tools support them. <br />People listening all over the world<br />Twitter announced the quake first <br />During the previous quake, China announced it 3 months after it happened. <br />The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]<br />
  18. 18. 18<br />Why do things work that way? <br />Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]<br />In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use <br />http://<br />
  19. 19. Japan’s Technology Forecasts<br />Characteristics<br />Structured approach<br />Organized<br />Firms, universities<br />Feedback loops<br />Chief strategists (MITI)<br />Micromanagement<br />ERATO projects<br />Directing Japanese R&D investments <br />Bottom-up view, begins with<br />Firms<br />Universities, research institutes<br />National associations<br />Long term vision<br />Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC<br />Long term technology forecasts<br />Science & Tech Agency<br />Institute of Future Technology<br />Economic Planning Agency<br />JICST<br />From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]<br />19<br />
  20. 20. Technology Forecasters<br />Evolution<br />Scientific Discovery<br />Inventions<br />Science Fiction<br />Futurology<br />Tech Forecasting<br />Think Tanks<br />Rand Corporation<br />Forecasters<br />Forecast International<br />Futurists<br />Einstein<br />Inventors<br />Jules Verne<br />H.G. Wells<br />Herman Kahn<br />Dr. Strangelove<br /><br /><br />From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]<br />20<br />
  21. 21. 21<br />Think Tanks<br />Futurist, nuclear scientist, <br />and systems theorist<br />Predicted the rise of Japan<br />as a world power<br />Rand <br />Corporation, 1948<br />The Hudson Institute, 1961<br />
  22. 22. Major Forecasting Techniques<br />Technique<br />Delphi method<br />Nominal group<br />Case study<br />S-Curve<br />Correlation analysis<br />Lead-user analysis<br />Analytic hierarchy<br />Systems dynamics<br />Cross-impact analysis<br />Relevance trees<br />Scenario writing<br />Description<br />Brainstorming <br />Delphi - leader<br />Analogous problems<br />Looking beyond trends<br />Past to future tech<br />Leading edge users<br />Forces influencing development<br />Dynamic relationships model<br />Interrelated future events<br />Goal trees & probability<br />Alternate future views<br />From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]<br />22<br />
  23. 23. Forecasts by Herman Kahn <br />Nuclear explosives for excavation & power<br />Weather and climate control<br />More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior<br />Human hibernation – months to years<br />Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults<br />Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation<br />High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations<br />Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel<br />Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel<br />Undersea installations and colonies<br />From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan<br />23<br />
  24. 24. Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2<br />Automated grocery and department stores<br />Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks<br />Chemical methods for improving learning and memory<br />Greater use of underground buildings<br />Very low cost buildings for home and business use<br />Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams<br />Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo<br />Inexpensive road-free transportation<br />Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night<br />24<br />From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan<br />
  25. 25. 25<br />Global Learning Forum<br />Research consortium<br />Researchers and game designers<br /> - Explore the potential<br /> - Imagine breakthrough ideas<br /> - Create transformations<br />New horizons in game simulation<br />and virtual world research<br />Blending social media and virtual worlds<br />This is not your grandmother’s internet<br />
  26. 26. 26<br />Quantum Computing<br />Research<br />Matt Purkeypile on a Practical<br />Quantum Computer Programming Framework [6]<br />
  27. 27. Gazing Into the Future<br />Web science research initiative<br />Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media<br />Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering<br />For more information, visit:<br />What is the Web Science Initiative<br /><br />Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world<br /><br />The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation<br /><br /><br />27<br />
  28. 28. Resources<br />Teaching using emerging media<br /><br />Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds<br /><br />Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research<br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br /><br />Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video<br /><br />Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music<br /><br />Remix<br />Questions? Contact<br />Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email<br />Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo<br />28<br />Lyr Lobo in Second Life<br />
  29. 29. [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill<br /><br />[2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’<br /><br />1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!<br />[3] Kdingflickr’sphotostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years<br /><br />[4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history<br /><br />[5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed Berners-Lee<br /><br />[6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove<br /><br />[7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.<br />[8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web. <br /><br />29<br />References<br />
  30. 30. Acknowledgements<br />Futuring and Innovation at Colorado Technical University<br />Matthew Purkeypile<br />Brent Wilson<br />David Graves<br />Maurice Dawson<br />Benjamin Herr<br />Will Henry<br />Carlton Lawrence<br />Katherine Moore<br />Anne Sempa<br />Tremayne Porter<br />30<br />