Futuring and InnovationDr. Cynthia Calongne, Colorado Technical University
Agenda What is a Futurist? Thoughts about the future Reflections on Forecasts Visioning Forecasting techniques The N...
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Who is a Futurist? H.G. Wells – Professors of Foresight   Early -- 40 years before academic futures studies Jules Verne...
Think TanksFuturist, nuclear scientist,     and systems theoristPredicted the rise of Japan         as a world power      ...
Thoughts about the Future “We cant solve problems by using the same kind of  thinking we used when we created them.” (Alb...
Forecasts by Herman Kahn 1.   Nuclear explosives for excavation & power 2.   Weather and climate control 3.   More reliabl...
Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2 11. Automated grocery and department stores 12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing...
Thoughts About the Future II "Any useful idea about the future should appear to be  ridiculous." (Jim Dator) "A part of ...
Visioning Activity If you had unlimited Time, Money and Talent,  what would you accomplish and acquire? List 10 ideas fo...
Forecasting and Futuring Ideas Will Ferrell’s Tour of Tech That Never Took http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_futu...
Major Forecasting Techniques   Technique                      Description     Delphi method                     Brains...
The Methods, Forces and Social Media  Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions  The Forces: Influences on pote...
14
The one Web                           We are the computerFrom Ted Talks, 2007 [8]                                         ...
Political and Societal Influences “Futurists predict societal change.” Political impact on futurism   The Newtonian Soc...
The Fortune Sellers by Sherden In 1990, 115 professors, writers and leaders noted those  who had ideas that were signific...
Top Ten Futurists from the 80s Alvin Toffler – Future Shock & 1st Univ futuring course Mikhail Gorbachev – last head of ...
Why do things work that way?  Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use                 htt...
At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill                          from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades               ...
Sustainability  Changing viewpoints as we gaze into the future    Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]       ...
A train moves down a narrow track    as tables and shops recede into               the walls. In a matter of seconds, a th...
Harmony   Cities are green    Stewart Brand on        Ted TalksBangkok train – co-existing with the marketplace [2]       ...
The Influence of Social Media Community Turbo Tax chat    40% of customer questions were    answered by other customers   ...
Clay Shirky – How social media can make history      “The tools don’t get socially    Media is global, social, ubiquitous ...
Perception                            Global and poignant [3]Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4]                 ...
Technology Forecasters   Evolution                       Futurists     Scientific Discovery              Einstein    ...
Japan’s Technology Forecasts Characteristics                   Bottom-up view, begins with   Structured approach       ...
Quantum Computing ResearchMatt Purkeypile on a PracticalQuantum Computer Programming Framework [6]                        ...
Web Services                                   Proposal Defense                                   By Paul YanzickCommunica...
Real and Virtual Meetings    Blended reality meetings & collaborative work in 2006     MacArthur Foundation panel from Har...
Global Learning Forum                                           Research consortium                                       ...
Exploring the Future in SL Collaboration in a                        Learning extends  worldwide community              ...
Gazing Into the Future Web science research initiative    Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media    Focuses on te...
Resources Teaching using emerging media                                                                               Lyr...
Videos and References [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill       http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_b...
Featured Videos   The Story of Stuff       http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/   Stewart Brand procl...
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Aitp 2012 keynote on futuring and innovation

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Aitp 2012 keynote on futuring and innovation

  1. 1. Futuring and InnovationDr. Cynthia Calongne, Colorado Technical University
  2. 2. Agenda What is a Futurist? Thoughts about the future Reflections on Forecasts Visioning Forecasting techniques The NMC Horizon Report Science fiction, science fact Research 2
  3. 3. 3
  4. 4. Who is a Futurist? H.G. Wells – Professors of Foresight  Early -- 40 years before academic futures studies Jules Verne – futurist and futurologist World Future Society TechCast Are you a futurist?
  5. 5. Think TanksFuturist, nuclear scientist, and systems theoristPredicted the rise of Japan as a world power Rand Corporation, 1948 The Hudson Institute, 1961 5
  6. 6. Thoughts about the Future “We cant solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.” (Albert Einstein) “Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.” (Albert Einstein)
  7. 7. Forecasts by Herman Kahn 1. Nuclear explosives for excavation & power 2. Weather and climate control 3. More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior 4. Human hibernation – months to years 5. Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults 6. Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation 7. High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations 8. Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel 9. Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel 10. Undersea installations and colonies From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan 7
  8. 8. Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2 11. Automated grocery and department stores 12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane tasks 13. Chemical methods for improving learning and memory 14. Greater use of underground buildings 15. Very low cost buildings for home and business use 16. Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams 17. Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo 18. Inexpensive road-free transportation 19. Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at night From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan 8
  9. 9. Thoughts About the Future II "Any useful idea about the future should appear to be ridiculous." (Jim Dator) "A part of our future appears to be evolutionary and unpredictable, and another part looks developmental and predictable. Our challenge is to invent the first and discover the second." (John Smart) 9
  10. 10. Visioning Activity If you had unlimited Time, Money and Talent, what would you accomplish and acquire? List 10 ideas for each categoryCategories: Education, Job/Research, Philosophical/Religious, Travel, Home 10
  11. 11. Forecasting and Futuring Ideas Will Ferrell’s Tour of Tech That Never Took http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_future_ferrell/all/1 The World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/ Influx: 17 thoughts & ideas on forecasting the future from Paul Saffo http://influxinsights.com/2008/technology/17-thoughts-and-ideas-on-fore New York Times: And the Pursuit of Happiness, Maira Kalman blog http://kalman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/can-do/ 11
  12. 12. Major Forecasting Techniques  Technique  Description  Delphi method  Brainstorming  Nominal group  Delphi - leader  Case study  Analogous problems  S-Curve  Looking beyond trends  Correlation analysis  Past to future tech  Lead-user analysis  Leading edge users  Analytic hierarchy  Forces influencing development  Systems dynamics  Dynamic relationships model  Cross-impact analysis  Interrelated future events  Relevance trees  Goal trees & probability  Scenario writing  Alternate future views From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7] 12
  13. 13. The Methods, Forces and Social Media  Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions  The Forces: Influences on potential innovations  Technological, economical, cultural, ethical, legal, political  Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects, game-based learning, eBooks and learning analytics  Social media culture shift – consumers become producers  Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis  Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration 13
  14. 14. 14
  15. 15. The one Web We are the computerFrom Ted Talks, 2007 [8] 15
  16. 16. Political and Societal Influences “Futurists predict societal change.” Political impact on futurism  The Newtonian Socialists  Extending the Story of Stuff to John Stuart Mill’s taxation of goods and economic subsidization  http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/
  17. 17. The Fortune Sellers by Sherden In 1990, 115 professors, writers and leaders noted those who had ideas that were significant, fresh & profound  Alvin Toffler  Mikhail Gorbachev  Nelson Mandela  Arthur C. Clarke  Gene Roddenberry  Peter Drucker  John Naisbitt  David Suzuki  Marilyn Ferguson  Hazel Henderson
  18. 18. Top Ten Futurists from the 80s Alvin Toffler – Future Shock & 1st Univ futuring course Mikhail Gorbachev – last head of state in the USSR Nelson Mandela – political activist - social change Arthur C. Clarke – 2001: A Space Odyssey Gene Roddenberry – Star Trek Peter Drucker- America’s Next Twenty Years John Naisbitt – Megatrends David Suzuki – Inventing the Future, environmental Marilyn Ferguson, Assoc of Humanistic Psychology Hazel Henderson – The Politics of Money
  19. 19. Why do things work that way? Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use http:// 19
  20. 20. At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmill from a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation systemWindmills as part of a sustainable future – Ted Talks [1] 20
  21. 21. Sustainability Changing viewpoints as we gaze into the future Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2] 21
  22. 22. A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into the walls. In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace emerges. [2](6 minutes into the S. Brand video) 22
  23. 23. Harmony Cities are green Stewart Brand on Ted TalksBangkok train – co-existing with the marketplace [2] 23
  24. 24. The Influence of Social Media Community Turbo Tax chat 40% of customer questions were answered by other customers with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years Disaster Response May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake 90,000 lost, schools destroyed 24
  25. 25. Clay Shirky – How social media can make history “The tools don’t get socially Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheap interesting until they get Most of the media is no longer produced by technologically boring.” [4] professionals [4] Consumers become producers -Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook The same tools support them. - The influence of social media People listening all over the world Photos and Twitter’s micro blogging news broadcast real-time information onTwitter announced the quake first the aftermath of China’s earthquakes During the previous quake, China June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to announced it 3 months after it Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days happened. before the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4] 25
  26. 26. Perception Global and poignant [3]Broadcasting the news as it is happening [4] 26
  27. 27. Technology Forecasters  Evolution  Futurists  Scientific Discovery  Einstein  Inventions  Inventors  Science Fiction  Jules Verne  Futurology  H.G. Wells  Tech Forecasting  Herman Kahn  Dr. Strangelove  Think Tanks  Rand Corporation  www.rand.org/  Forecasters  www.forecastinternational.com/  Forecast International From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7] 27
  28. 28. Japan’s Technology Forecasts Characteristics  Bottom-up view, begins with  Structured approach  Firms  Organized  Universities, research institutes  Firms, universities  National associations  Feedback loops  Long term vision  Chief strategists (MITI)  Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC  Micromanagement  Long term technology forecasts  ERATO projects  Science & Tech Agency  Institute of Future Technology  Directing Japanese R&D  Economic Planning Agency investments  JICST From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7] 28
  29. 29. Quantum Computing ResearchMatt Purkeypile on a PracticalQuantum Computer Programming Framework [6] 29
  30. 30. Web Services Proposal Defense By Paul YanzickCommunicating by voice, localchat text, instant messages and visually.Includes a meeting log for easy reference. 30
  31. 31. Real and Virtual Meetings Blended reality meetings & collaborative work in 2006 MacArthur Foundation panel from Harvard and MIT 31
  32. 32. Global Learning Forum Research consortium Researchers and game designers - Explore the potential - Imagine breakthrough ideas - Create transformations New horizons in game simulation and virtual world research Blending social media and virtual worlds This is not your grandmother’s internet 32
  33. 33. Exploring the Future in SL Collaboration in a  Learning extends worldwide community beyond the classroom  Architecture (AWG)  Seminars  Cultural venues  Symposia  Second Life groups  Scientific programs  Educational networks  Research & Development  Co-author papers Present your research, collaborate with other scholars, network and share ideas, and advance the state of technology. 33
  34. 34. Gazing Into the Future Web science research initiative  Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media  Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web engineering For more information, visit:  What is the Web Science Initiative  http://webscience.org/  Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world  http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum  The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation  http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page  http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/ 34
  35. 35. Resources Teaching using emerging media Lyr Lobo in Second Life  http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/ Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds  http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research  http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html  http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA  http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html  http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA  http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html  http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video  http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music  http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ  Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ Questions? Contact  Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net  Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo 35
  36. 36. Videos and References [1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill  http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html [2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’  http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html  1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week! [3] Kdingflickr’s photostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years  http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/ [4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history  http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html [5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5q on Berners-Lee  http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece [6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove  http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html [7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York. [8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.  http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html 36
  37. 37. Featured Videos The Story of Stuff  http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/ Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’  http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html  1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week! Clay Shirky how social media can make history  http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove  http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web.  http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html 37
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