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020111 marylhurst workforce success


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Gail Krumenauer, an economist with the Oregon Workforce and Economic Research Division present new labor market information to Marylhurst University students and alumni at a Workforce 21 event on …

Gail Krumenauer, an economist with the Oregon Workforce and Economic Research Division present new labor market information to Marylhurst University students and alumni at a Workforce 21 event on February 1, 2011.

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  • 1. Preparing for Workforce Success in Oregon’s Current Economic Climate
    Presented by:
    Gail Krumenauer
    February 1, 2011
  • 2. Overview: Preparing for Workforce Success
    Knowing where we are: still in a difficult economic climate
    An educated guess of where we’re going:
    Short-term forecasts and expectations
    Occupational projections 2008-2018, and where we expect growth
    Factors that enhance competitiveness in the labor market
    Useful tools along the way:resources at
  • 3. The Recession is Over?
    Defining A Recession
    To a Household or Individual
    Employment and Income
    Personal and Community
    Across the U.S. Economy
    Decline or Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • 4. Visually, you would expect a recovery period to look about exactly opposite of this.
  • 5. Nationally we see growth in our Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
  • 6. Portland at the lower-end of Metro area recovery
    Source: Brookings Institute
  • 7. We have seen some positive employment growth in recent months…
  • 8. …but the effects of recession will last for years.
  • 9. Where We’re Heading: Short- and Long-term Employment Growth
  • 10. Vacancies: Fall 2010 Survey ResultsTotal vacancies statewide = 30,652
  • 11. Over half of vacancies 60+ days in professional and business services or health care
  • 12. Help-Wanted OnLine Ads Rebounding
  • 13. Future Hiring: One-third of employers expect to hire, mostly for turnover openings
  • 14. For 2011: Job Growth Projected in Most Industries
  • 15. 2011 Hiring Forecast* in a Variety of Occupations
    *Employment Department estimates based on OEA forecast.
  • 16. Long-term Projections
    More than 430,000 openings from 2008 to 2018 to replace current workers as they …
    change occupations early in their careers,
    or retire – baby boomers are nearing retirement
    Add to this the more than 160,000 openings due to economic growth, and we expect …
    about 600,000 total occupational openings*
    *This doesn’t include job openings due to people changing jobs but not their occupations.
  • 17. What do we mean by “total job openings?”
    In the context of these projections, we mean:
    Growth openings – net gains from more firms being created or growing that firms going out of business or declining
    Replacement openings – caused by individuals permanently leaving occupations due to retirement, death, disability, or occupational transfer.
    In addition to the above, there are many – perhaps a million each year – turnover openings. These create opportunities for individuals and headaches for businesses, but do not represent “need” in terms of education/workforce planning.
  • 18. Services industries will add many jobs, especially health care services
  • 19. Manufacturing industries are expected to see the greatest losses
  • 20. Projected job growth also varies by region
  • 21. All occupational groups are projected to add jobs…
    Important Notes
    Relatively low-wage occupations add the most jobs.
    Professional and health care significantly contribute to high-wage job growth.
  • 22. …and many projected openings will be high wage…
  • 23. …but pay varies widely by occupational group.
  • 24. Service and administrative support openings no longer top the list, once we focus only on high-wage, high-demand jobs.
  • 25. “Usual Suspects” List of Occupations
  • 26. Factors that Enhance Competitiveness for Job Openings
  • 27. Education Pays!
  • 28. Higher education also associated with lower unemployment rates.
  • 29. Postsecondary training will only continue to be increasingly more important.
  • 30. Two-thirds of job openings in high-demand occupations paying at least $50,000 per year require some postsecondary training …
    * Due to growth and replacement.
  • 31. … and 95%of the “above $50,000” high-demand jobs desire post-secondary training if you want to be competitive.
    * Due to growth and replacement.
  • 32. We’ve updated Oregon’s high-wage, high-demand occupations lists.
    The statewide list…
    … includes 222 occupations (out of more than 700 total)
    … accounts for over 230,000 of the 600,000 projected total openings between 2008 and 2018
    … includes occupations that pay at least $15.97 median hourly wages
  • 33. Need skills that employers want, in addition to education requirements.
  • 34. The ability to work across generations is essential
    Gen Y
    Gen X
  • 35. Same Workplace, Different Perspectives
    Gen Y
    Gen X
    WHY do I need to learn this?
    Tell me HOW to do it
    School and Training
    Tell me WHAT to do
    Defining Issues
    Iran (Contra and Hostages)
    JFK Assassination, Civil Rights
    Sept. 11, 2001, “Great Recession”
  • 36. Resources Available at
  • 37. Occupational Information Center
    Detailed info on more than 700 occupations!
    Current job openings
    Employment projections
    Industries of employment
    Training providers
  • 38. Educational Information Center
    Program reports with training in your area!
    Number of Graduates
    Relevant Occupations
    Employment Projections
  • 39. High-Wage, High-Demand jobs on the Web
    To view all the High-Wage, High-Demand, and High-Skill jobs:
    Go to
    Click On Occupation Explorer under Tools
    At the bottom of the page, click on
    High Demand, High Skill, High Wage Occupations
  • 40. The Take Home Messages
    The effects of “The Great Recession” (2007-2009) will continue to impact the workforce for years.
    Vacancies and hiring are occurring! We expect modest employment growth through 2011, and roughly 9 percent statewide between 2008 and 2018.
    Even those occupations that aren’t growing will need new workers, to replace those who leave. Replacement openings will outnumber growth openings by roughly 2:1.
    The majority of high-wage and high-demand jobs require postsecondary education, especially in this competitive job market
  • 41. For the latest Workforce & Economic Research
    Gail Krumenauer, Economist
    Oregon Employment Department
    (503) 947-1274