• Like

Loading…

Flash Player 9 (or above) is needed to view presentations.
We have detected that you do not have it on your computer. To install it, go here.

Joe turek regional economic outlook 2012

  • 723 views
Uploaded on

Dr. Joe Turek, Dean of the School of Business and Economics at Lynchburg College, gave this presentation on the economic outlook of the region at the Economic Outlook Conference at LC on 2/1/2012.

Dr. Joe Turek, Dean of the School of Business and Economics at Lynchburg College, gave this presentation on the economic outlook of the region at the Economic Outlook Conference at LC on 2/1/2012.

  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
723
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
0

Actions

Shares
Downloads
2
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide

Transcript

  • 1. The Regional Economy in Perspective Dr. Joe Turek, Dean School of Business and Economics Lynchburg College February 1, 2012 turek@lynchburg.edu
  • 2. Distribution of RegionalEmployment, November 2011 Amherst, 15,256, 12.7% Lynchburg, 33,904, 28.3% Appomattox, 6,959, 5.8% Bedford City, Bedford 2,544, 2.1% County, 34,638, 28.9% Campbell, 26,639, 22.2%
  • 3. Change UnemploymentResident % Change (10/10 – 10/11) (10/10 – 10/11) Rate Labor Nov NovEmployment Force Employment Unemployment Unemployment 2010 2011 Amherst 2.8 4.8 -20.8 -1.7 7.7 6.0 Appomattox 3.5 4.8 -12.2 -1.2 8.0 6.8Bedford County 3.5 4.8 -14.8 -1.2 6.6 5.4 Campbell 3.8 4.8 -10.2 -0.9 6.7 5.8 Bedford City 4.1 4.9 -4.4 -1.2 8.6 7.9 Lynchburg 3.8 4.8 -8.1 -0.9 7.8 6.9 Lynchburg 3.6 4.8 -12.2 -1.1 7.2 6.1 MSA Virginia 1.6 2.4 -10.7 -0.8 6.5 5.7 US (1000s) 0.0 1.2 -11.7 -1.1 9.3 8.2
  • 4. ChangeMetropolitan % Change (Nov 2010 – Nov 2011) (Nov 2010 – Nov 11)StatisticalAreas Labor Force Employment Unemployment Unemployment Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford 2.9 4.4 -15.8 -1.3 Charlottesville 5.4 6.2 -8.8 -0.7 Danville 1.1 3.3 -18.1 -2.0 Harrisonburg 2.5 3.4 -11.2 -0.8 Kingsport-Bristol 1.5 3.1 -15.3 -1.5 Lynchburg 3.6 4.8 -12.2 -1.1 Richmond -0.1 0.8 -11.9 -0.9 Roanoke 2.2 3.2 -12.4 -1.0Virginia Beach-Norfolk- Newport News 0.7 1.2 -5.5 -0.5Washington-Arlington- Alexandria 2.1 2.7 -9.4 -0.6 Winchester 4.5 5.2 -6.0 -0.6
  • 5. EMPLOYMENT BY PLACE OF RESIDENCE 1.50E+08 125000 1.40E+08 120000MSA Employment US Employment 115000 1.30E+08 110000 1.20E+08 105000 100000 1.10E+08 95000 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10 LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
  • 6. LYNCHBURG MSA UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 08 10
  • 7. The recession experience: comparing the Lynchburg MSA and the nation 1.480E+08 1.460E+08 1.440E+08MSA Emploument US Employment 122000 1.420E+08 120000 1.400E+08 1.380E+08 118000 1.360E+08 116000 114000 112000 2008 2009 2010 2011 LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
  • 8. Same story: different perspective 121000 1.520E+08 120000 1.500E+08 119000 1.480E+08MSA Emploument US Employment 118000 1.460E+08 117000 1.440E+08 116000 1.420E+08 115000 1.400E+08 114000 1.380E+08 113000 1.360E+08 112000 1.340E+08 2008 2009 2010 2011 LYNCHBURG MSA NATION
  • 9. Unemployment Rates Dec 2007 – Nov 201111109876543 2008 2009 2010 2011 VIRGINIA LYNCHBURG NATION
  • 10. The Lynchburg MSA Labor Market 10 8 Unemployment Rate 6Employment 122000 4 120000 118000 2 116000 114000 112000 2008 2009 2010 2011 EMPLOYMENT UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
  • 11. The Lynchburg MSA Labor Market 130000 129000 128000 127000 126000 125000 124000 123000 122000 2008 2009 2010 2011 MSA Labor Force
  • 12. Number of Unemployed per Advertised Job Opening Nov-10 Oct-11 Nov-11Amherst County 4.70 3.95 4.42Appomattox County 4.43 4.71 6.75Bedford City 113.5 55.5 24.11Bedford County 4.65 4.20 4.31Campbell County 7.92 10.18 9.52Lynchburg City 1.00 0.71 0.77REGION 2.31 1.72 1.86
  • 13. W as hi ng to n- A rli n gt on - Al ex 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 a nd C ria ha r lo t te sv H ille ar ri so nb u rg W in chVi es rg te in ia r Be R oa ac n ok Bl h- e ac No k sb r fo Ly l nc u rg k- h -C Ne bu hr w rg is po tia r tN ns ew bu s rg -R Nov. 2011 ad fo Ki r d ng R s po ich rt - m on Br ist d ol -B ris to l D an MSA Unemployment Rates v ille
  • 14. Number of Unemployed per Advertised Job Opening Nov-10 Oct-11 Nov-11Blacksburg-Christiansburg-Radford MSA 2.10 1.33 1.46Charlottesville MSA 0.94 0.76 0.80Danville MSA 2.91 2.42 2.84Harrisonburg MSA 1.88 1.12 1.29Lynchburg MSA 2.31 1.72 1.86Richmond MSA 1.51 1.02 1.07Roanoke MSA 1.70 1.16 1.32Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News MSA 1.73 1.38 1.52Winchester, VA-WV MSA 2.38 1.57 1.70
  • 15. OCCUPATIONS RANKED BY NUMBER OF SEEKERS, 12/2/11 LYNCHBURG MSA OCCUPATIONS Seekers LYNCHBURG MSA OCCUPATIONS SeekersCustomer Service Representatives 655 First-Line Supervisors of Office/Admin. Support Workers 61Cashiers 276 Computer Support Specialists 60Helpers--Production Workers 251 Landscaping and Groundskeeping Workers 59Office Clerks, General 223 Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 59Construction Laborers 201 Personal and Home Care Aides 57Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 189 Machinists 57Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers 187 Shipping, Receiving, and Traffic Clerks 56Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 178 Construction Managers 52Administrative Services Managers 164 Sales Managers 52Receptionists and Information Clerks 158 Child Care Workers 50Construction Carpenters 153 Home Health Aides 50Bookkeeping, Accounting, and Auditing Clerks 114 Automotive Service Technicians and Mechanics 48Maintenance and Repair Workers, General 114 Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manufacturing 48First-Line Supervisors of Production Workers 93 Cooks, Restaurant 47Electricians 85 Data Entry Keyers 46Accountants 85 Food Service Managers 43Secretaries, Except Legal, Medical, and Executive 79 Medical Assistants 40Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids & Housekeeping 76 Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 40Welders, Cutters, and Welder Fitters 74 Food Preparation Workers 39Inspectors, Testers, Sorters, Samplers, and Weighers 72 First-Line Supervisors of Mechanics, Installers, & Repairers 36Driver/Sales Workers 67 Painters, Construction and Maintenance 36Industrial Truck and Tractor Operators 64 Helpers--Installation, Maintenance, and Repair Workers 35Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics & Installers 62 Chefs and Head Cooks 34Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 62 Cooks, Institution and Cafeteria 30
  • 16. Supply/Demand Conditions in Occupations w/ at Least 6 Openings, 12/2/11 Potential Job Potential Candidates OCCUPATIONS IN LYNCHBURG MSA Candidates Openings Per Job OpeningCustomer Service Representatives 655 54 12.13Cashiers 276 23 12.00Nursing Aides, Orderlies, and Attendants 189 21 9.00Accountants 85 13 6.54Truck Drivers, Light or Delivery Services 62 13 4.77Licensed Practical and Licensed Vocational Nurses 59 13 4.54Sales Managers 52 12 4.33Office Clerks, General 223 11 20.27Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 178 11 16.18Machinists 57 10 5.70Laborers and Freight, Stock, and Material Movers, Hand 187 9 20.78Heating and Air Conditioning Mechanics and Installers 62 8 7.75Cooks, Restaurant 47 7 6.71Electricians 85 6 14.17Janitors and Cleaners, Except Maids and HousekeepingCleaners 76 6 12.67Personal and Home Care Aides 57 6 9.50Home Health Aides 50 6 8.33Maids and Housekeeping Cleaners 40 6 6.67Chefs and Head Cooks 34 6 5.67Sales Reps, Wholesale & Manuf., Technical/Scientific Prod. 26 6 4.33
  • 17. ACCRA Cost of Living Index (2011 Q3) MSA Composite Grocery Housing Utilities Transport Health MiscVirginia Beach 104.8 97.3 110.7 108.5 93.9 98.6 105.6Charlottesville 104.4 94.7 117.3 101.9 96.9 99.0 100.6Winchester 102.8 102.1 86.6 100.4 103.5 103.2 117.8Richmond 99.2 103.0 89.3 106.5 102.5 109.0 102.0Harrisonburg 97.6 95.8 99.7 100.2 92.4 100.0 97.0Blacksburg 95.0 89.3 90.2 94.7 101.3 99.4 99.2Staunton 94.8 93.5 94.0 101.2 95.5 97.3 93.4Lexington 93.5 92.0 93.8 98.4 100.5 90.9 90.7Roanoke 93.4 90.9 93.8 95.7 93.4 96.9 92.9Danville 92.2 94.4 83.0 94.0 97.1 96.7 96.8Lynchburg 92.0 89.7 86.8 104.5 86.0 97.8 94.6
  • 18. REGIONAL WAGE VARIATIONS2011:2 Average Weekly Rank ACCRA Rank Real Average Rank Wage COL Weekly Wage IndexRichmond 862 1 98.1 4 879 1Charlottesville 803 2 107.6 2 746 4Virginia Beach 786 3 104.5 1 752 3Winchester 773 4 105.6 3 732 5Roanoke 731 5 92.6 9 789 2Lynchburg 690 6 94.5 7 730 6Blacksburg 674 7 97.6 5 691 8Harrisonburg 652 8 95.2 6 685 9Staunton 651 9 94.1 8 692 7Danville 606 10 92.5 10 655 10Martinsville 570 11 87.7 11 650 11
  • 19. Housing Market Conditions 2010:4 – 2011:4 % Change % Change Median Sales Price SalesRoanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg -2.3 9.8Greater Richmond -8.5 9.6Northern Virginia -0.2 -9.1Hampton Roads -7.6 12.9Southside Virginia -1.2 2.4Southwest Virginia -6.3 9.4All of Virginia -1.3 1.1
  • 20. Number of Building Permits, prelim.(annual totals, 2008 through 2011)% Change Bedford County Campbell Lynchburg2010 - 2011 -15.8 -28.0 -57.6
  • 21. New Firm Start-ups, 2002-2010440 14000400 13000360 12000320 11000280 10000240 9000200 8000160 7000120 6000 80 5000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 LYNCHBURG MSA VIRGINIA
  • 22. New Firm Start-ups in first 6 months, 2002-2010 10000 360 9000 320 8000 280 7000 240 6000 200 5000 160 4000 120 3000 80 2000 40 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 VIRGINIA LYNCHBURG MSA
  • 23. Taxable Retail Sales % Change % Change 2011-3 2010:3 – 2011:3 2011:2 – 2011:3Amherst 55,012,306 -3.6 -1.9Appomattox 23,208,109 -1.1 -27.6Bedford County 87,798,953 -22.6 -0.2Campbell 99,144,748 6.2 -0.8Bedford City 19,769,548 3.8 -8.5Lynchburg 280,623,634 0.8 -7.0REGION 565,557,298 -3.3 -5.7Virginia 22,668,526,253 2.2 2.3
  • 24. Foreclosures 2011:3 2011:4 % ChangeRoanoke/Lynchburg/Blacksburg 474 530 11.8Greater Richmond 2,347 1,721 -26.7Northern Virginia 5,850 4,258 -27.2Hampton Roads 3,279 2,402 -26.7Southside Virginia 241 181 -24.9Southwest Virginia 81 44 -45.7All of Virginia 12,668 9,391 -25.9
  • 25. SCORECARDEmployment Growth Relatively highCost of Living LowReal Average Weekly Wage Relatively lowMedian Home Sales Price -2.3% (not just Lynchburg)Home Sales +9.8%Building Permits DownNew Firm Start-Ups Mixed; most recently, downTaxable Retail Sales -5.7%Foreclosures +11.8%