What will London’s economy and labour market look like in 2007-2014? (Paul Bivand, CESI)

  • 379 views
Uploaded on

Presentation to LVSC's Forum on European Funding in London, 2014-2020 (25th July 2013)

Presentation to LVSC's Forum on European Funding in London, 2014-2020 (25th July 2013)

More in: Travel , Business
  • Full Name Full Name Comment goes here.
    Are you sure you want to
    Your message goes here
    Be the first to comment
    Be the first to like this
No Downloads

Views

Total Views
379
On Slideshare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1

Actions

Shares
Downloads
9
Comments
0
Likes
0

Embeds 0

No embeds

Report content

Flagged as inappropriate Flag as inappropriate
Flag as inappropriate

Select your reason for flagging this presentation as inappropriate.

Cancel
    No notes for slide
  • JSA flow rates 9-12 to 12-15 months
  • Young people are more than twice as likely to be in this group than the workforce overall;People with no qualifications 42% more likely to be low paid cyclers;Black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) people 39% more likely;Lone parents, who 20% more likely;Men, who are 13% more likely; andDisabled people, who are 11% more likely to be in this group than the workforce overall.Accommodation and food services (which includes all hotel, restaurant and bar work) in which people are two and a half times more likely to move between unemployment and low pay than the workforce overall; and,Administration and support services (which includes office administration, human resources, tourism and rental activities) in which people are nearly two times more likely to move between unemployment and low pay than the workforce overall.

Transcript

  • 1. What will London’s economy and labour market and look like in 2014-2020? Paul Bivand Inclusion
  • 2. Will positive trends continue?
  • 3. Gaps have been closing
  • 4. And for disadvantaged groups 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 London employment rate Lone parent BAME Disabled -35 -30 -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 May 2007 May 2008 May 2009 May 2010 May 2011 May 2012 London employment rate Lone parent BAME Disabled
  • 5. London’s gaps in JSA off-flows have closed 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 London UK -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% Jan-07 Jun-07 Nov-07 Apr-08 Sep-08 Feb-09 Jul-09 Dec-09 May-10 Oct-10 Mar-11 Aug-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Nov-12 Apr-13 London Gap
  • 6. Changing employment
  • 7. … changing structure demands higher qualifications 8% have no qualifications 48% have degrees (32% in UK)
  • 8. Jobs to 2020 People services Creative Digital Science & Technology Greater London Inner London East London Newham Increase Increase Increase Increase Code 2nd Tier Description Total % Total % Total % Total % 1.2 Nursing & medical Subjects/Vocations 23,786 13% 8,968 14% 3,952 14% 618 13% 13.1 Teaching and Lecturing 21,481 12% 8,524 13% 3,577 13% 504 12% 15.4 Marketing and Sales 5,247 12% 2,704 13% 679 11% 76 8% 1.3 Health and Social Care 11,116 11% 4,741 12% 1,702 10% 219 9% 1.5 Child Development and Well Being 32,098 11% 13,612 12% 5,297 11% 760 10% 5.3 Urban, Rural and Regional Planning 14,959 11% 8,267 13% 1,877 9% 188 6% 11.2 Sociology and Social Policy 4,308 10% 1,934 12% 640 10% 83 8% 9.3 Media and Communication 13,556 10% 7,897 12% 1,916 9% 188 7% 1.1 Medicine and Dentistry 5,153 9% 2,452 11% 806 9% 98 7% 2.1 Science 5,038 8% 2,518 10% 688 7% 96 6% 1.4 Public Services 3,296 8% 1,278 8% 478 7% 47 4% 4.1 Engineering 4,699 8% 2,650 11% 560 6% 64 4% 14.1 Foundations for Learning and Life 1,006 7% 427 8% 155 7% 20 5% 15.5 Law and Legal Services 2,182 6% 1,593 9% 270 6% 17 3% 8.1 Sport, Leisure and Recreation 2,566 6% 1,529 8% 351 5% 3 0% 14.2 Preparation for Work 3,691 6% 1,940 7% 493 5% 61 3% 15.1 Accounting and Finance 9,127 5% 6,478 9% 956 4% 43 1% 9.1 Performing Arts 2,679 5% 1,778 8% 394 5% 20 2% 9.2 Crafts, Creative Arts, and Design 8,298 5% 5,454 8% 1,162 4% 101 3% 6.1 ICT Practitioners 5,663 5% 3,218 7% 594 3% 108 4% 15.3 Business Management 25,161 4% 16,540 7% 2,682 3% 215 2% 7.1 Retailing and Wholesaling 9,059 4% 5,649 7% 1,257 4% 202 3% 12.2 Other Languages, Literature and Culture 1,831 4% 1,141 6% 292 4% 38 3% 7.4 Hospitality and Catering 2,377 3% 1,305 4% 265 2% 21 1% 4.2 Manufacturing Technologies 11,173 3% 6,736 6% 834 2% 121 1% 8.2 Travel and Tourism 1,914 3% 1,133 5% 257 3% 35 2% 4.3 Transportation Operations/Maintenance 1,589 3% 1,077 5% 77 1% 5 0% 6.2 ICT for Users 1,469 2% 1,266 4% 79 1% -16 -1% 3.2 Horticulture and Forestry 79 1% 84 2% 15 1% 5 4% 15.2 Administration 136 0% 704 3% -59 -1% -23 -2% 5.2 Building and Construction -6,469 -4% -1,750 -4% -1,319 -4% -218 -4%
  • 9. The supply-side challenge ...
  • 10. 1. Female employment: childcare and part- time jobs Employment rate of women with dependent children Note: Head of family or spouse only, includesfull-time students Source: Labour Force Survey, Oct-Dec, 2007-2011 74.2 71.3 86.9 58.3 47.6 73.1 65.7 90.0 72.4 57.3 Not parents- Men Not parents- Women Couple parents - Men Couple parents - Women Lone parents- All London Rest of UK
  • 11. 2. Continue to improve schools London is ahead on % attaining 5 A-C GCSEs but varies by income
  • 12. 3. Improve Further Education  Curriculum should focus on subject sector areas that offer quantity (the scale of jobs) and growth (net growth in jobs) opportunities: – Health and Social Care – Marketing and Sales – Building and Construction – Business Management – Accounting and Finance – Manufacturing Technologies; and – Child Development and Well Being  Employers, continue to cite various skills shortages – the most common being management and leadership skills; and ICT and communication skills. Advice to a London FE College:
  • 13. 4. Mobility: one and many labour markets Greater London 3.7 million jobs Inner London 1.5 million jobs East London 0.6 million jobs Newham 91 thousand jobs Greater London 72,000 vacancies Inner London 31,000 vacancies East London 14,000 vacancies Newham 5,000 vacancies
  • 14. 5. Making Work Pay in London impact of welfare reform 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Banking, finance & insurance Transport & communication Manufacturing Public admin., education & health Construction Other services Distribution, hotels & restaurants London UK Percent of those in work earning below the living wage by industry (2012)
  • 15. 6. Dynamic or insecure? 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% London UK Movers between unemployment and low pay as a proportion of the workforce
  • 16. 7. Changing employment patterns of mothers 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Couple Mother Lone Mother Couple Mother Lone Mother Couple Mother Lone Mother Couple Mother Lone Mother Couple Mother Lone Mother Level 4 + Level 4 + Level 3 Level 3 Level 2 Level 2 Level 1 Level 1 None None Full Time Part Time Mini
  • 17. Welfare Reform Situation of (claimants) on the whole shall not be made really or apparently so eligible as the situation of the independent labourer of the lowest class Royal Commission on the Poor Laws, 1834 Or, in modern rephrasing Making Work Pay But, not just money, also conditionality
  • 18. Impacts of welfare reform Many reports – huge impacts Particularly disabled people But employment rates rising for disadvantaged However – labour markets in Outer London more ‘normal for UK’ – higher part-time working – higher proportions of jobs taken by lower-qualified
  • 19. Tasks for 2014-20 Mitigating impacts of welfare reform Helping people manage work with personal circumstances Labour mobility London’s success built by migration – in and out – Internal UK – EU – International non-EU