2014 Experiments, Tokyo
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2014 Experiments, Tokyo

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Deck from our February 2014 workshop in Tokyo

Deck from our February 2014 workshop in Tokyo

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    2014 Experiments, Tokyo 2014 Experiments, Tokyo Presentation Transcript

    • Learn-Measure-Build Craft Useful Experiments By Running Backwards Janice Fraser February 2014
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 TWEET! #LeanStartup @clevergirl @luxrco
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 • Learn the difference between an experiment and a solution test. • Discover the seven steps to crafting an experiment with a clear result. • Practice identifying assumptions and defining testable hypotheses. • Understand the anatomy of an experiment. • Design an experiment to test a real-life hypothesis. • "Get out of the classroom" to run a real-world experiment on your fellow conference-goers. • Define a result and make a go-forward decision. • Refine the experiment based on cost, time, and manpower. • Identify the four characteristics of successful experiments.
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co June & Pete’s Wedding Cake
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co http://saptstrength.com/ Pete June
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co April http://saptstrength.com/ May June July August
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co sedonaweddingcakes.com
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co freebestpictures.blogspot.com
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co thekitchn.com
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co Zoe Clark, The Cake Parlour
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co sedonaweddingcakes.com Zoe Clark, The Cake Parlour
    • © 2013 LUXr Incorporated, www.luxr.co LEAN Startup
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 LEAN Startup
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 Build measure learn!
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013
    • © LUXR.CO 2013 Lean Startup is NOT Cheap Startup Fast Startup Shortcut Startup
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 An approach for building companies that are creating new products and services in situations of extreme uncertainty. The approach advocates creating small products that test the entrepreneurʼs assumptions, and using customer feedback to evolve the product, thereby reducing waste. Lean Startup is...
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 1. List your assumptions. 2. Understand your customers. 3. Experiment efficiently. 4. Adjust direction based on evidence.
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 1. List your assumptions. 2. Understand your customers. 3. Experiment efficiently. 4. Adjust direction based on evidence.
    • © LUXR.CO APRIL 2013 Go backward to go forward. Learn Measure Build
    • © LUXR.CO 2013 Plot the difference THINK release MAKE release MAKE release MAKE RISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT TIME
    • © LUXR.CO 2013 Lots of little wigglesRISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT TIME
    • © LUXR.CO 2013 RISK=UNVALIDATEDEFFORT TIME Each wiggle is a learning cycle. MAKE releaseBUILD LEARN BUILD MEASURE
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 There’s a pattern to startup work: ideation decision making ideation etc.
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 In foolproof experiments, the results should be self- evident.
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 1. Choose the problem to tackle. Clarify what’s uncertain, what you need to learn. 2. Understand the possible answers. 3. Brainstorm “what you could do to prove it”. 4. Choose the most broadly differentiated set of indicators. 5. Run the experiment. 6. Write down the results...on a sheet of paper. 7. Project the results into your future. 7 steps to foolproof experiments
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 The Workshop
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Hypothesis We believe that modern families would benefit from having better ways to store their belongings, and are willing to pay for a service that will pick up and store boxes, then deliver them back home on demand. Today’s Challenge
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Box Me Up Provides you with plastic storage boxes Transports your stuff to storage Pay to get your stuff back Per-box per year 2800¥ per box per year outside of the city (less expensive place) box size: 30 gallon box service area is in Tokyo insurance is 20,000 yen per box temperature and humidity are normally conditioned no limit for storage perioe 24 hours access to the box privately storage payment method: paypal, square, credit card, no cash delivery will be by car nothing illegal, perishable, waste will be stored 3 employees in the company main customer will be families got 70,000,000 yen for initial investment
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Experiment Framework For Example: We believe people like [customer type] have a need for (or problem doing) [need/action/behavior]. The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment]. We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/ measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome]. Every experiment has three parts: 1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable 2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Identify assumptions 10 assumptions, 1 per sticky
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Divide into 2 piles Will kill the company in the next 6 months if weʼre wrong Everything else
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Review & de-dupe
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Stack rank the urgents
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Pick the top one
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Design an experiment to learn if this is true. we believe that ________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ _________________________________ __________________________ Briefly describe it. State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid or invalid. This can be quantitative evidence or qualitative. How much time/money/effort will it take?
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 {Activity} Discuss, then pick the experiment to run. we believe that ________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ ____________ in 2 days. Decide we believe that ________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ __________________________________ ____________ in 2 weeks. we believe that ________________ _________________________________ ________________________________ ________________________________ ________________________________ _______________________________ _______________________________ ____________ in 2 months. ✔
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Experiments that were designed assumption experiment measurable/observable outcome busy people need a service to help them get menial stuff done fb ad, neighborhood targeting presents an offer, landing page. Phone number or tweet. No out of pocket cost. 10% ctr on ad, 10% ctr on landing page. 2 days busy people need a service to help them get menial stuff done find busy people (in offices). Set up a “shop”. Sit in their reception and see if we can get jobs. Prevail upon friend who runs 300-person company 5% of employees will make a hire. 1 repeat booking 2 wks busy people need a service to help them get menial stuff done ad in 10 different offices, diff types of companies 2 weeks.
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 What did you learn? Top 5 things {Debrief}
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Design the next experiment: 2 days, 2 weeks, 2 months {Next Steps}
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 What’s the right size for the experiment? {Choose}
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 Techniques Checklist • Brainstorm quietly • Use Sticky Notes for ideas • Self-Edit • Go to the wall for team sharing • Stack-ranking • Roman Voting • Right-Sizing the work
    • LUXR.CO JUNE 2012 FISHBOWL