the myth of influencers

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Our own experience tells us, that some people are more influential then others. A good run CRM system should therefore identify those “Opinion Leader”, “task makers” or “influencer” to treat them differently. But do they even exist? Lutz Finger (@LutzFinger) will look at anecdotal evidence as well as research to clarify how to measure influence. The findings:

# Influencers are often not wide-spreading… they are local.
# There not only a few dominating the rest… it is more network and peer pressure which influences.
# Influencers are often overestimated… 50% is homophily.
# Influence very much depends on the topic.

Rather than to look for influencers look for Broadcaster. However be aware that broadcaster only create awareness and not necessarily intention.

The video from the presentation: http://youtu.be/HgCNwUytjZI

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the myth of influencers

  1. 1. Facebook   N   Online  News  The  Myth  of  Influence   Blog   Twi3er   Video   @LutzFinger   TV   Print   Images   Forum   We  make  sense  out  of  media  
  2. 2. Co-­‐Founder  @LutzFinger   Researcher  &  Speaker   Book  Author  
  3. 3. QuizPlease  raise  your  hand,  if….   •  Would  you  choose  a  doctor  because  friends   recommended  it?   •  Would  you  choose  a  computer  program   because  friends  recommended  it?   •  Would  you  have  gone  to  a  movie  because  your   friends  recommended  the  movie?    
  4. 4. Success  Stories   ●  100   influencers  in  social  media   ●  Offered  Test  Drives  and  “broadcasted”  their  comments   ●  YouTube  videos  related  to  this  campaign  generated  over  6.5  million  views   …  and  was  it  successful?   ●  Ford  received  more  than  50,000  requests  for  informaQon   ●  10,000  cars  were  sold  in  the  first  six  days   Awareness Trigger IntentionSource:  "Demys.fying  social  media,"   Influencer  McKinsey  Quarterly,  April  2012  Picture:  YouTube  channel  
  5. 5. The  Marketer  Dream  Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  6. 6. The  Marketer  Dream  Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  7. 7. The  Marketer  Dream  Logo  by  OCAL  &  clker.com      
  8. 8. Since  1955  ●  opinion  leaders  (Katz  and  Lazarsfelt  1955)  ●  influenQals  (Merton  1968)  ●  Influencers  (Rand  2004)  ●  e-­‐fluenQals  (Burson-­‐Marsteller  2001)  ●  hubs  (Rosen  2000)  ●  Mavens  &  connectors  (Gladwell  2000)   Source:  Amazon.com  Website   Law of the Few Social epidemics (are)… driven by the efforts of a handful of exceptional people (Malcom  Gladwell,  2000,  The  Tipping  Point)  
  9. 9. Influence  can  be  local   Why?     ●  By  Chance?   ●  Influence?   ●  Socio-­‐Economical?  Source:  h3p://www.doh.wa.gov/        
  10. 10. Yahoo!  Go   IntroducQon  2007     QuesQon:   •  friends  influence  friends  to  adopt   •  friends  with  similar  backgrounds  and  tastes  adopt  (homophily)     Sinan  Arala  et.al.:   •  Analyzed  27.4  million  users   •  89  million  disQnct  relaQonships   •  14  bn  page  views   •  3.9  bn  messages   •  Over  5  month  Source:  Sinan  Arala,  Lev  Muchnik,  and  Arun  Sundararajan  (2009):  PNAS  Vol  106,  no  51      
  11. 11. Influence  comes  from  many   FracOon  of  Adopters  vs.  Non-­‐adopters   Number  of  Adopters  in  Network   •  Network  externality  are  the  main  driver  for  Influence  -­‐  contagious   •  Homophily  is  accounQng  for  50%  of  the  adopQon  effect  Source:  Sinan  Arala,  Lev  Muchnik,  and  Arun  Sundararajan  (2009):  PNAS  Vol  106,  no  51      
  12. 12. Influence  depends  on  the  Topic   Not  all  Topics  are:       •  4  years   •  1001  Students  on  Facebook   •  tradiQonal  Self-­‐reported  Data   •  How  did  taste  Spread   Source:  orgtheory.net  Source:  Kevin  Lewisa,  Marco  Gonzaleza  and  Jason  Kaufman  (2012):  PNAS  Vol  109,  no  1  
  13. 13. The  Myth  of  Influencer   local●  Influence  can  be         many (like  peer  pressure)  ●  Influence  is  done  by    ●  Influence  might  be  in  reality  homophily●  Influence  depends  on     topic     13  
  14. 14. BUT  why….    Aja  Dior  M.  omgg,  my  aunt  .ffany  who  work  for  whitney  houston  just  found  whitney  houston  dead  in  the  tub.  such  ashamed  &   45  min  sad  :(   Or  why….     Source:  TED  talk  by  Kevin  Allocca     6  month  
  15. 15. BroadcasQng        ≠            Influence   Awareness        ≠            IntenQon   15  
  16. 16. How  to  MEASURE  broadcast  ●  Reach  ●  AcQvity  ●  Engagement   16  
  17. 17. Youth  Olympic  Games   AcOvity  versus  Response   6000   Response   5000   ●  Reach   4000   PromoQng  YOG  Social   Media  AcQvity   ●  AcQvity   3000   ●  Engagement   2000   1000   0   Athletes  Role   Young   Young   YOG   Models   Ambassadors   Reporters   Ambassador  Source:  Fisheye  Analy.cs   17  
  18. 18. CRM  Strategy   ●  Re-­‐Check  your   Influencer  Strategy:   ─  It  might  be  local   Intent ─  It  might  be  more  based  on  peer  pressure   ─  It  might  not  fit  all  of  your  products   ●  Look  out  for  the   Broadcaster   ─  Most  reach  measure  will  work   Awareness ─  Be  sure  that  you  measure  engagement   ─  Stay  away  from  acQvity  Source:  Fisheye  Analy.cs  
  19. 19. Thanks   If  you  liked  it.  Follow  me  on  Twi3er  @LutzFinger.  Book  by  O’Reilly  Media  To  be  published  in  Spring  2013  

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