LutzFinger.com
Ask Measure Learn
@LutzFinger
LutzFinger.com
Disclaimer
The points of view in this
presentation are my own
and might not reflect
LinkedIn’s opinion.
LutzFinger.com
LutzFinger.com
Who is a Statistician?
LutzFinger.com
“So$ware	
  is	
  
ea,ng	
  the	
  
world.”	
  
	
  
-­‐	
  Marc	
  
Andreessen	
  
LutzFinger.com
Should	
  I	
  get	
  an	
  MBA	
  or	
  learn	
  to	
  code?	
  
LutzFinger.com
two
like
one
Good
big
go
New
way
see
data
socialmedia |
measure
people
customer
Use
example
many
often
ASK
...
LutzFinger.com
LutzFinger.com
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data – even if it
is not Big data.
Take Actions and LEARN from t...
LutzFinger.com
One Framework?
LutzFinger.com
?
Products
Market Research
Customer Care
Marketing
PR
Sales
LutzFinger.com
?
Products
Market Research
Customer Care
Marketing
PR
Sales
LutzFinger.com
Iden,ty	
   Network	
   Knowledge	
  
84%	
  
LutzFinger.com
This is you…
LutzFinger.com
This is you…
On	
  Campus	
  Group	
  
EMBA	
  2015	
   EMBA	
  2016	
  
LutzFinger.com
2nd Cluster hidden
LutzFinger.com
This is you…
On	
  Campus	
  Group	
  
EMBA	
  2015	
   EMBA	
  2016	
  
Cornell	
  
Cornell	
  Tech	
  
LutzFinger.com
The Connector
•  Who is connecting all 4 Groups?
LutzFinger.com
The Connector
•  Who is connecting all 4 Groups?
•  Who is connecting all 3 Groups?
LutzFinger.com
Who is connecting all?
LutzFinger.com
Actionable Insights
LutzFinger.com
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data – even if it
is not Big data.
Take Actions and LEARN from t...
LutzFinger.com
Actionable Insights
ASK is often the hardest Part
LutzFinger.com
How to Spot a Good “Ask”?
LutzFinger.com
Small not BIG Data
•  Connec,ons	
  
•  Skills	
  
•  User	
  behavior	
  
•  Subscriber	
  Data	
  
•  Sal...
LutzFinger.com
Data Science
IRRELEVANT
NOISE
METRICS
RELEVANT
DATA
Petabyte Gigabyte
Byte
Terabyte1	
   2	
   3	
  
4	
  
LutzFinger.com
•  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
•  Influentials (Merton 1968)
•  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)
A Clear Ask: ...
LutzFinger.com
•  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
•  Influentials (Merton 1968)
•  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)
Measure: Conn...
LutzFinger.com
Measure: Influence
Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1
•  4 y...
LutzFinger.com
The Influencer Myth
Influence is often
overestimated:
•  Reach
•  Readiness
•  Topic Dependence
LutzFinger.com
Ask & Measure is critical
Do you remember? Why did they fail?
LutzFinger.com
It changes industries
Google had the right Question.
LutzFinger.com
Learn
Benchmark	
   Predic,ons	
  
Recommenda,ons	
  &	
  
Filter	
  
LutzFinger.com
Competitive Benchmark
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
LutzFinger.com
LinkedIn Recommendations
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads in WhichYou May Be Interested
Companie...
LutzFinger.com
Prediction
Photo	
  by	
  Ludie	
  Cochrane	
  	
  
LutzFinger.com
Also, here the MEASURE
LutzFinger.com
Is critical
LutzFinger.com
Academy	
  
Industry	
  
Professionals	
  
Ac,ve	
  Movie	
  Goers	
  
All	
  Movie	
  Goers	
  
The measur...
LutzFinger.com
Avoid!
•  Cause is not
Correlation
•  Cause is not Effect
•  Probability is NOT the
Truth
LutzFinger.com
Cause is not Correlation
LutzFinger.com
Cause is not Effect
LutzFinger.com
Probability is NOT the Truth
LutzFinger.com
j.mp/ask-cornell
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Cornell 140721-open

  1. 1. LutzFinger.com Ask Measure Learn @LutzFinger
  2. 2. LutzFinger.com Disclaimer The points of view in this presentation are my own and might not reflect LinkedIn’s opinion.
  3. 3. LutzFinger.com
  4. 4. LutzFinger.com Who is a Statistician?
  5. 5. LutzFinger.com “So$ware  is   ea,ng  the   world.”     -­‐  Marc   Andreessen  
  6. 6. LutzFinger.com Should  I  get  an  MBA  or  learn  to  code?  
  7. 7. LutzFinger.com two like one Good big go New way see data socialmedia | measure people customer Use example many often ASK might LEARN right chapter need just users bots start 1 real set ROI 10 9 3 However Facebook question Twitter online create information metrics Even time case used reach marketing Network public within Analytics also Thus company using business Figure metric influence sales different look system customers companies PR world book get well whether articles first Best number important content product care process know similar find measurement behavior Google page News questions make easily search service intent algorithm Research value message spread Friends market Take Lets brand much predict likely work person PART kind based unstructured user may now created discussed approach tools become better issue systems around answer Technology knowledge easy success sentiment insights trust given 2011 industry others recommendation want help today potential examples article Try tweets hard predictions targeting Another purchase someone long Buy every 2012 CRM future results impact computer following Since Team products relations bot something campaign needs context networks issues meanways human possible measurements discussion already Found financial always creating order structured high CEO share done million awareness web versus automated change cost specific purchasing still comments called YouTube personal video true certain difficult means via traditional Times Without read services Group available Open predictive word behavioral analyze looking messages Next negative click fake show correlation Courtesy Second discussions able interest University followers cases movie seen turn main learning link idea clear made viral three measuring things discuss everyone 5 end spreading started Tweet form level bad 4 actually predicting engagement wrong sources small Graph keyword far Yes consumers ones understand 2 focus rate website Consumer seems fourth stock variables described positiverecommendations V build Fisheye price highly saw privacy sometimes Support Software reviews 8 action therefore intention offer commerce shows asked call improve com spot successful engine words reading algorithms overall terms Despite ideas relevant machine quite give error short Score General Figure less connections Think common Reality Define community clients key Test Netflix effect channel large 2010 Forum points Moreover Economic 6 term relationship Internet back course several Step lot early situation Professor really neverPolitical probably analysis Blog selection source Models cause stories sharing either later Michael measures LinkedIn ability United least Pointneeded tool Higher per 7 tell response reason rates known De study trying simply al great Causal react Please et spam reduce hand place gaming email model hype paid put 11 uses view fact last day top sure risk ad soon gain type due surely line Post areas views cus lead text beginning actions Index causation power rather books blogs write sense serve matter Net yet ever come Note oil re con 12 TV seem Dell aim 13 ing free comes low size Act 30 peer 46 Item name must dont box fans went 20 16 ads im meas 80 car C add Goes 70 Jan 57 six 31 21 xi BP pay 17 Win 14 76 28 led E BBC 25 23 32 age run 91 got channels believe digital simple pages amount lists list Check recent days York shown role fast drop Likes Factor efforts Majorstrong summary movies earlier actual types exist Paul topic OReilly access site 2013 looks teams story else space thing goal sets play task owned sold noted 100 hit moment track CEOs
  8. 8. LutzFinger.com
  9. 9. LutzFinger.com ASK the right Questions. MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data. Take Actions and LEARN from them. ?
  10. 10. LutzFinger.com One Framework?
  11. 11. LutzFinger.com ? Products Market Research Customer Care Marketing PR Sales
  12. 12. LutzFinger.com ? Products Market Research Customer Care Marketing PR Sales
  13. 13. LutzFinger.com Iden,ty   Network   Knowledge   84%  
  14. 14. LutzFinger.com This is you…
  15. 15. LutzFinger.com This is you… On  Campus  Group   EMBA  2015   EMBA  2016  
  16. 16. LutzFinger.com 2nd Cluster hidden
  17. 17. LutzFinger.com This is you… On  Campus  Group   EMBA  2015   EMBA  2016   Cornell   Cornell  Tech  
  18. 18. LutzFinger.com The Connector •  Who is connecting all 4 Groups?
  19. 19. LutzFinger.com The Connector •  Who is connecting all 4 Groups? •  Who is connecting all 3 Groups?
  20. 20. LutzFinger.com Who is connecting all?
  21. 21. LutzFinger.com Actionable Insights
  22. 22. LutzFinger.com ASK the right Questions. MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data. Take Actions and LEARN from them. ?
  23. 23. LutzFinger.com Actionable Insights ASK is often the hardest Part
  24. 24. LutzFinger.com How to Spot a Good “Ask”?
  25. 25. LutzFinger.com Small not BIG Data •  Connec,ons   •  Skills   •  User  behavior   •  Subscriber  Data   •  Sales  Data  (geo-­‐localized)   •  Group  discussions   •  ….  
  26. 26. LutzFinger.com Data Science IRRELEVANT NOISE METRICS RELEVANT DATA Petabyte Gigabyte Byte Terabyte1   2   3   4  
  27. 27. LutzFinger.com •  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955) •  Influentials (Merton 1968) •  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000) A Clear Ask: Influencer
  28. 28. LutzFinger.com •  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955) •  Influentials (Merton 1968) •  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000) Measure: Connectivity
  29. 29. LutzFinger.com Measure: Influence Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1 •  4 years •  1001 Students on Facebook •  Traditional Self-reported Data •  How did taste Spread
  30. 30. LutzFinger.com The Influencer Myth Influence is often overestimated: •  Reach •  Readiness •  Topic Dependence
  31. 31. LutzFinger.com Ask & Measure is critical Do you remember? Why did they fail?
  32. 32. LutzFinger.com It changes industries Google had the right Question.
  33. 33. LutzFinger.com Learn Benchmark   Predic,ons   Recommenda,ons  &   Filter  
  34. 34. LutzFinger.com Competitive Benchmark Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media
  35. 35. LutzFinger.com LinkedIn Recommendations People You May Know Groups You May Like Ads in WhichYou May Be Interested Companies You May Want to Follow Pulse Similar Profiles
  36. 36. LutzFinger.com Prediction Photo  by  Ludie  Cochrane    
  37. 37. LutzFinger.com Also, here the MEASURE
  38. 38. LutzFinger.com Is critical
  39. 39. LutzFinger.com Academy   Industry   Professionals   Ac,ve  Movie  Goers   All  Movie  Goers   The measurement Was social media Mentions… And not the right predictions Predicting the OSCARs
  40. 40. LutzFinger.com Avoid! •  Cause is not Correlation •  Cause is not Effect •  Probability is NOT the Truth
  41. 41. LutzFinger.com Cause is not Correlation
  42. 42. LutzFinger.com Cause is not Effect
  43. 43. LutzFinger.com Probability is NOT the Truth
  44. 44. LutzFinger.com j.mp/ask-cornell Today’s presentation & More Insights
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