Lutz Finger

Ask Measure Learn

Last update: March 3, 2014
The philosophy of the day is

data-ism.
—DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)
Who
• 
• 
• 
• 

am I

Lutz Finger
Director Data Analytics at LinkedIn
Author of Ask Measure Learn
Co-Founder Fisheye Anal...
Who are

you?
Mario Vinasco
Earliest Adopter

Rahul Todkar
Most Popular

Bruno Aziza
Most Connected

Ron Goncalves,
MBA, PMP,
Most Endor...
Actionable Insights?
Intellectually enriching – at most
We focus too much on technology
Google Search on the term “Big Data”

ENGINEERS

DATA SCIENTISTS
ASK the right Questions.
MEASURE the right data –
even if it is not Big data.
Take Actions and
from them.

LEARN

?
ASK

Ask the right

Question
ASK
THE HARDEST PART
ASK
Let’s do “Social Media”
ASK
Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
•  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955)
•  Influentials (Merton 1968)
•  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000)

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’...
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

A few person decide what we do…
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

ASK

REALLY?
ASK
Dear Marketers,
There is

no influencer. It’s a myth.
ASK

Reality 50% is Homophily

• 
• 
• 
• 

4 years
1001 Students on Facebook
traditional Self-reported Data
How did taste...
ASK

Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
ASK

Aja Dior M.?
AP News?
Aja Dior M.
omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for
whitney houston just found whitney
houston dead ...
ASK
I want to create “REACH”
… in order to “SELL”
MEASURE

Measure the
right Data
•  Click Rates – Media
•  Low CPO advertisers
•  Etc..

MEASURE

The world is full of WRONG metrics
Measure
MEASURE

What is RIGHT?

Source: WIkipedia

30
Big Data

MEASURE

even if it is not
Social
Data

Behavioral
Data

Identity
Data

Data Volume

MEASURE

Analytical Challenge &
Complexity

277+ Million Members...
MEASURE
More Data

does not equal

More Insights
MEASURE

We want small data….

Data ELT and
Aggregation

Web API

Reach
Analytics
Portal

or

No Reach

1

Petabyte

2

Te...
MEASURE

Calculating Reach via Network Data

1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based
on Betweenness .”
“SELL”
needs purchase intend

MEASURE

“REACH”
creates awareness
MEASURE
Correlations are

important
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

What is your behavior?
MEASURE

The issue with the Correlation / Causation
MEASURE
Sometimes data is

not easy

to get.
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
New York Weather in April 2013

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

MEASURE

It is way easier to work with ‘str...
MEASURE
MEASURE
Source: Jeffrey Breen

43
MEASURE

What is RIGHT?

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

44
LEARN

Right Actions
and learn from
them.
2
Connections
4%

4
Connections
3%

1
Connection
28%

0
Connections
59%

LEARN

Information vs. Action…
LEARN

Information vs. Action…
4
Connections
2
3%
Connections
4%

1
Connection
28%

0
Connections
59%

47
LEARN

Three Types of actionable Insights

Benchmark

Predictions

Recommendations &
Filter
LEARN
BENCHMARK
LEARN

Competitive Benchmark

Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

50
LEARN
RECOMMEND & FILTER
People You May Know
Groups You May Like
Ads You Be Interested in
Companies you May Want to Follow
Similar Profiles
Puls

LE...
More than
50% of
connections

LEARN

Recommendations Impact

More than
50% of
group joins

More than
50% job
applications
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Filter
LEARN
PREDICTIONS
LEARN

Predicting the OSCAR 2013
LEARN

Predicting the OSCAR
Possible other Features:
CROWDSOURCED:
•  Box Office Results
•  Movie Goer Reviews
•  Critics
OTHER “Hard Facts”
•  Genre
•...
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Predicting Box Office
LEARN
Predictions are not easy,
especially if they are about the Future
Behavioral Score = 0.5
Identity Score = 0.3
Emily

Score = 0.9

Social Score = 0.1

Behavioral Score = 0.2
Identity Score ...
Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media

LEARN

Which Model to use
Google’s Prediction API

LEARN

Which Model to use
Benchmark

Recommendation & Filter

Predict

LEARN

Many more examples…
LEARN
Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
LEARN

Training

Update
Summary
ASK the right Questions.
Forget Big Data but
MEASURE the right
data.
Take Actions and
from them.

LEARN

?
We are hiring!
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
Ask Measure Learn
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Ask Measure Learn

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Published on

Making sense of your data doesn't require mountains of data; it requires a systematic approach that leads to actionable insights. But how to get there? This keynote (given at "Predictive Analytics and Business Insights") shows how to extract significant business value from big data with Ask-Measure-Learn, a system that helps you ask the right questions, measure the right data, and then learn from the results. Using this system can help you learn to:

* Focus on business-related questions
* Find measures that have high causation, a low error rate and a low cost
* Create actionable insights by starting with predictions, benchmarks or recommendations

Published in: Business

Ask Measure Learn

  1. 1. Lutz Finger Ask Measure Learn Last update: March 3, 2014
  2. 2. The philosophy of the day is data-ism. —DAVID BROOKS (@NYTDAVIDBROOKS)
  3. 3. Who •  •  •  •  am I Lutz Finger Director Data Analytics at LinkedIn Author of Ask Measure Learn Co-Founder Fisheye Analytics (sold to WPP) @LutzFinger LutzFinger.com linkedin.com/in/lutzfinger ?
  4. 4. Who are you?
  5. 5. Mario Vinasco Earliest Adopter Rahul Todkar Most Popular Bruno Aziza Most Connected Ron Goncalves, MBA, PMP, Most Endorsed
  6. 6. Actionable Insights?
  7. 7. Intellectually enriching – at most
  8. 8. We focus too much on technology Google Search on the term “Big Data” ENGINEERS DATA SCIENTISTS
  9. 9. ASK the right Questions. MEASURE the right data – even if it is not Big data. Take Actions and from them. LEARN ?
  10. 10. ASK Ask the right Question
  11. 11. ASK THE HARDEST PART
  12. 12. ASK Let’s do “Social Media”
  13. 13. ASK Source: IBM Institute for Business Value.
  14. 14. •  Opinion leaders (Katz 1955) •  Influentials (Merton 1968) •  Law of the Few (Gladwell 2000) Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK Please find an “INFLUENCER”
  15. 15. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK A few person decide what we do…
  16. 16. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media ASK REALLY?
  17. 17. ASK Dear Marketers, There is no influencer. It’s a myth.
  18. 18. ASK Reality 50% is Homophily •  •  •  •  4 years 1001 Students on Facebook traditional Self-reported Data How did taste Spread Source: Kevin Lewisa, Marco Gonzaleza and Jason Kaufman (2012): PNAS Vol 109, no 1 Influence is often overestimated. It needs: §  Reach §  Readiness §  Topic Dependence
  19. 19. ASK Aja Dior M.? AP News?
  20. 20. ASK Aja Dior M.? AP News? Aja Dior M. omgg, my aunt tiffany who work for whitney houston just found whitney houston dead in the tub. such ashamed & sad :( 45 min
  21. 21. ASK I want to create “REACH” … in order to “SELL”
  22. 22. MEASURE Measure the right Data
  23. 23. •  Click Rates – Media •  Low CPO advertisers •  Etc.. MEASURE The world is full of WRONG metrics
  24. 24. Measure MEASURE What is RIGHT? Source: WIkipedia 30
  25. 25. Big Data MEASURE even if it is not
  26. 26. Social Data Behavioral Data Identity Data Data Volume MEASURE Analytical Challenge & Complexity 277+ Million Members = a lot of Data
  27. 27. MEASURE More Data does not equal More Insights
  28. 28. MEASURE We want small data…. Data ELT and Aggregation Web API Reach Analytics Portal or No Reach 1 Petabyte 2 Terabyte 3 Gigabyte 4 Bit
  29. 29. MEASURE Calculating Reach via Network Data 1977: Linton C. Freeman, “Centrality based on Betweenness .”
  30. 30. “SELL” needs purchase intend MEASURE “REACH” creates awareness
  31. 31. MEASURE Correlations are important
  32. 32. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE What is your behavior?
  33. 33. MEASURE The issue with the Correlation / Causation
  34. 34. MEASURE Sometimes data is not easy to get.
  35. 35. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE Social Behavior is ‘unstructured’
  36. 36. New York Weather in April 2013 Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media MEASURE It is way easier to work with ‘structured data’
  37. 37. MEASURE MEASURE Source: Jeffrey Breen 43
  38. 38. MEASURE What is RIGHT? Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media 44
  39. 39. LEARN Right Actions and learn from them.
  40. 40. 2 Connections 4% 4 Connections 3% 1 Connection 28% 0 Connections 59% LEARN Information vs. Action…
  41. 41. LEARN Information vs. Action… 4 Connections 2 3% Connections 4% 1 Connection 28% 0 Connections 59% 47
  42. 42. LEARN Three Types of actionable Insights Benchmark Predictions Recommendations & Filter
  43. 43. LEARN BENCHMARK
  44. 44. LEARN Competitive Benchmark Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media 50
  45. 45. LEARN RECOMMEND & FILTER
  46. 46. People You May Know Groups You May Like Ads You Be Interested in Companies you May Want to Follow Similar Profiles Puls LEARN LinkedIn Recommendation Products
  47. 47. More than 50% of connections LEARN Recommendations Impact More than 50% of group joins More than 50% job applications
  48. 48. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Filter
  49. 49. LEARN PREDICTIONS
  50. 50. LEARN Predicting the OSCAR 2013
  51. 51. LEARN Predicting the OSCAR
  52. 52. Possible other Features: CROWDSOURCED: •  Box Office Results •  Movie Goer Reviews •  Critics OTHER “Hard Facts” •  Genre •  Payment of Actors •  Etc. Source: Farsite LEARN Predicting the OSCAR
  53. 53. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Predicting Box Office
  54. 54. LEARN Predictions are not easy, especially if they are about the Future
  55. 55. Behavioral Score = 0.5 Identity Score = 0.3 Emily Score = 0.9 Social Score = 0.1 Behavioral Score = 0.2 Identity Score = 0.3 Steve Score = 0.9 ... With premium account, you get more search results and access to … Social Score = 0.4 ... Do you know 5 of you connections have started to use premium account … LEARN Propensity to Email Marketing
  56. 56. Source: ‘Ask Measure Learn’ by O’Reilly Media LEARN Which Model to use
  57. 57. Google’s Prediction API LEARN Which Model to use
  58. 58. Benchmark Recommendation & Filter Predict LEARN Many more examples…
  59. 59. LEARN Data Wrangling & Data Science is getting Easier
  60. 60. LEARN Training Update
  61. 61. Summary
  62. 62. ASK the right Questions. Forget Big Data but MEASURE the right data. Take Actions and from them. LEARN ?
  63. 63. We are hiring!
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