LBA - Prof. Paulo Artaxo


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Apresentação da 1º conferência de imprensa do módulo "Descobrir a Amazônia - Descobrir-se Repórter 2013"

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LBA - Prof. Paulo Artaxo

  1. 1. • Como a Amazônia funciona como uma entidade regional? (p. ex. cicloágua, ciclo carbono, nutrientes, radiação, biologia, dimensões sociais,etc.)• Como as mudanças no uso da terra e no clima afetam as funçõesbiológicas, químicas e físicas da Amazônia, incluindo a sustentabilidadeda região e a influência da Amazônia no clima regional e global?Questões científicas originais do LBA
  3. 3. Water(in clouds and biosphere)Nutrients(P, N, K, others)CarbonNitrogen(Vegetation and soil)Aerosols(and trace gases)Anthropogenic activitiesThe Large Scale Biosphere AtmosphereExperiment in Amazonia - LBA
  4. 4. Susceptibility andexpected reaction tostresses of globalclimate change aswell as pollutionintroduced by futureregional economicdevelopment are notknown or quantifiedat present time.Amazonia has strong coupling between terrestrial ecosystem and the hydrologic cycle: The linkagesamong carbon cycle, aerosol life cycle, and cloud life cycle need to be understood and quantified.
  5. 5. Conceptual overview of terrestrial carbon cycle –chemistry – climate interactionsArneth et al., 2011
  6. 6. Aerosols, radiation, clouds and greenhousegases in the global climate systemThe major uncertainties in the climate system
  7. 7. Aerosol and cloud lifecycles
  8. 8. Agricultural expansion and climatevariability have become importantagents of disturbance in theAmazon basin. There are somesigns of a transition to adisturbance-dominated regime.These signs include changingenergy and water cycles in thesouthern and eastern portions ofthe Amazon basin.Interactions between globalclimate, land use, fire,hydrology, ecology and humandimensions.Forcing factors are indicated withred ovals; processes addressed inthis Review are indicated by greenboxes and arrows; andconsequences for human societyare indicated by blue boxes withrounded corners
  9. 9. The hydrologic Amazon basin is demarcated by a thick blue line; isopleths of mean daily precipitation duringthe three driest months of the year97 (in mm; white lines) are overlain onto four land-cover classes.Climatic gradient across the Amazonbasin
  10. 10. Diversity of soils of the Amazon forest regionQuesada et al. 2011 Biogeosciences
  11. 11. Abordagem integrada de observaçõesde mudanças climáticas globaisµmdmha10 km1000 kmVerificação deprocessosPrevisão integradora
  12. 12. The biology of the forest partially controls the chemistryand physics of the atmosphere in AmazoniaStrong interactions between forest biology, physics and chemistry of the atmosphereArtaxo et al., 2013Life in clouds: Bacteria, spores, fungus, etc
  13. 13. Life is in the air and it does interact with precipitation
  14. 14. • Algae/ Protozoaobserved incloud watersamples• Protozoa werealive andmovingSpecies observedin cloud water.
  15. 15. Slide 17Manaus-K34Fazenda NSAparecidaReserva JarúPantanalFlona-SantarémCaxiuanaBrasilia-CerradoTorres de medidas doExperimento LBA
  16. 16. Balanço de carbono na Amazônia1- Richey et al., 2002; 2- Melack et al., 2004; 3 -Rasera et al., unpublish data; 4- Johnson et al., 2006;5- Telles et al.,2003; 6- Ometto et al., 2005; 7- Houghton et al., 2000; 8- Morison et al.,2000; 9- Putz & Junk, 1997; 10-Wissmar et al., 1981
  17. 17. The average gross primary productivity (GPP) ofthe land surface, over the period 1998–2005. Unitsof GPP here are g m-2. 100 g m-2 = 1 Mgha-1. (Beeret al. 2010)Gross primary productivity (GPP)Full carbon cycle for a maturetropical forest in Amazonia(Caxiuanã, Brazil).All units are Mg C ha-1year-1. (Malhi, 2012)
  18. 18. Estimates of Amazonian greenhouse-gasemissionsEstimates of annual, basin-wide greenhouse-gas fluxes described in the text are presented together here,in a common currency of Pg CO2-equivalents, using 100-year global warming potentials for CO2 (black),CH4 (red) and N2O (purple).Pg CO2-equivalentsDavidson et al., 2012
  19. 19. Response to interannual drought1 2 3 4 5 6 7 81020300100200ForestPhotosynthesis(MgCha-1yr-1)El Nino DroughtHadley modeled GPP & precip in centralAmazonia in years relative to El Nino droughtModel-Predicted Response(Jones et al.,2001)Years: -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4Precip(mmmo-1)Empirical Test: the 2005 droughtTropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM)satellite precip anomalies in 3rd quarter 2005(Saleska et al., Science, 2007)
  20. 20. Florestas intactas são resistentes a secassazonais, mas começam a morrer depois dealguns anos sucessivos de secas seguidas.Nepstad et al (2007), Ecology, Fisher et al. (2007), Global Change Biology, Brando et al (2008),Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B, Sotta et al. (2008), Global Change BiologyExperimento de exclusão de chuvas em Caxiuanã e Santarem
  21. 21. Rio Negro mean water levels (m) at Manaus-AM during drought years196320102005Lowest levels at ManausTwo strong droughts in 2005 and 2010: Variability of Rio Negro during droughtyears
  22. 22. Annual aboveground biomass change duringthe 2005 interval.Effect of the 2005drought in thecarbon balancein AmazoniaPhillips et al. 2009 ScienceDrought sensitivityof the AmazonRainforest
  23. 23. Spatial patterns of standardized anomalies ofnormalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) andenhanced vegetation index (EVI).Drought of 2010 in AmazoniaManaus river level for 2005 and 2010Xu et al., GRL 2011
  24. 24. Medidas de Fluxos de CO2 por Eddy Correlation20 m above canopy height11 m above ground (stem space)gas analyser ;data acquisitionvacuumpumpOpaqueTeflontube(65m)capillaryinlet cone+ filterultrasonicanemometer53 mdatatransferline11m1mmean canopyheight ~ 33 m1m above forest floor
  25. 25. NOEL KEMPFF 2001,6,7TAMBOPATA 2002,3,5,6,7,8Bogi 2002,7IQUITOS 2001,5,6,8MANAUS2002,5,6CAXIUANA2002,4,5,6,7,8BRAGANCA2002TAPAJOS 2003Jatun Sacha 2002,7Pan-Amazon CoverageField Campaigns 2001-2008 in permanent plotsACRE2003 SINOP 2002SAN CARLOS2004,6JARI 2003MOCAMBO2003EL DORADO2004Andes Transect 2003,6,7,8RIO GRANDE2004AGUA PUDRE2004,5,6Alta Floresta 2002,8Cusco Amazonico2003,6,8ZAFIRE2005,6,7,8Mabura Hills2006Jenaro Herrera 2005,6,7Dois Irmaos2003,6Tiputini 2002,7Sacta 2006BEEM 2006Porongaba2003,6LORENA2004,6Nouragues2008Nova Xavantina 2008Los Amigos 2008Pasco 2008
  26. 26. Biomass trend, 123 RAINFOR plots 1980-2004Gain = 0.93+0.30 t ha-1 a-1RAINFOR, unpublished data
  27. 27. Above-Ground Wood Production (t C ha-1year-1)0123456JEN-06CYB-01JEN-09HCC-21MNU-04CUZ-04JAS-03YAN-01CUZ-03PAK-03TAM-04BCI-50MNU-03JAS-02LSL-02SUC-02ALP-22CEL-15ELD-03TAM-05MNU-06TAM-07LIN-01NOR-01MNU-01RIO-01PAK-02CRP-01TAP-02BNT-07TIP-03BNT-05TAM-02TAP-01BNT-04TAP-03JEN-10SCR-02LSL-01BCI-01BDF-01BDF-10BDF-14BDF-09CAX-02BDF-13BDF-12SCR-01SCR-03SiteGrowthVenezuelaBrazilN PeruS PeruBoliviaGuyanasEcuadorRAINFOR - Above - groundwood production for 97 sitesMalhi et al, in prep33.544.555.566.577.580 500 1000 1500 2000 2500Distance from Andes (km)SoilpH
  28. 28. SavannaSeasonalForestRainforestSource: Malhi et al., Exploring the likelihood and mechanism of a climate-change induced dieback of the Amazonrainforest, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2011 submittedLinking biomass with precipitation in Amazonia:A rainfall biogeography of Amazonia
  29. 29. Seca de 2005: Biomass trend, 57 RAINFOR plots 2005Loss = xxxxx0.93+0.30 tha-1 a-1RAINFOR, unpublished data
  30. 30. Amazonia is criticalfor water vaportransport over SouthAmerica
  31. 31. José Marengo, CST, INPEFluxo de umidade da Amazônia ao Sul do Brasil: Quanto? Quais processos controlam este fluxo?
  32. 32. Emissões de queimadas: A questão chave...
  33. 33. Where and when does biomassburning occur?The seasonality of fires derived from MODIS by Giglio et al. (2006).
  34. 34. 0500010000150002000025000300003500077/88*88/8989/9090/9191/9292/9494/9595/9696/9797/9898/9999/0000/0101/0202/0303/0404/0505/0606/0707/0808/0909/1010/11Desflorestation(km²peryear)Deforestation in Amazonia 1977-2011 in km² per year* annual average per decade27.000 Km²in 2004Redução dodesmatamento naAmazônia:de 27.000 Km² em 2004 a6.200 Km² em 20116.200 Km²em 2011Que políticas públicas são mais eficientes para continuar esta redução?
  35. 35. “By 2020, Brazil will reduce deforestationby 80% relative to 2005.” (pres. Lula inCopenhagen COP-15)
  36. 36. Copenhagen Commitment: Reduction in 80% emissions from deforestationin 2015 from 2004. Same target in the Brazilian law passed in Congress.56241253Deforestation AgrobusinesEnergy+Transport IndustryLandfillsBrazilian Greenhouse Gases Emission Inventory for 2005MCT February 2010
  37. 37. Amazonia: 3 different types of aerosolsBiogenic (primary and SOA) Biomass Burning Dust from SaharaEach with VERY different properties and impactsSize: from 1 nanometer to 10 micrometers
  38. 38. Com centenas de milhares de focos deincêndio na Amazônia a cada ano…• Efeitos severos na saúde da população• Efeitos climáticos• Alterações no funcionamento doecossistemaDistribuição de aerossóisem larga escala naAmazônia:Efeitos fortes no balanço deradiação e nos mecanismos deformação de chuvas
  39. 39. CO strong increase from July to August 2010(total CO column from AIRS)
  40. 40. Distribuição Global de Monóxido de Carbono (CO)
  41. 41. Aerosol Optical Thickness550 nmSolar Radiationat surface (W m-2)Continental scale effects Karla Longo and Saulo Freitas, INPE/CPTEC
  42. 42. Efeitos dos aerossóis provenientes de queimadasno ciclo hidrológico da AmazôniaVapor de águaPartícula de aerossolatuando como núcleo decondensação de nuvensCondiçõestermodinâmicas daatmosferaProcessos altamente não lineares
  43. 43. Vapor de água global na atmosfera
  44. 44. Nuvens PyrocumulusNuvens do Oceano VerdeCiclo hidrológico crítico para a Amazônia.
  45. 45. DiffusionNucleationCoalescence** CrystalcollectionSO2SO4-Evaporation****Crystal shatteringCollectionAerosolparticles, cloudcondensationnuclei andprecipitationAerosols Soluble: Nitrates, DON, NH3, NH4+ , etc…
  46. 46. Terra and Aqua satellite imagesof the east Amazon basin, 11August 2002. (A) The clouds(Terra, 10:00 local time) arebeginning to form. (B) Theclouds (Aqua, 13:00 local time)are fully developed and coverthe whole Amazon forestexcept for the smoke area. Theboundary between forest andCerrado region is marked inwhite on both images, and theseashore is marked in green.(From Koren et al., 2004)Supressão da formação denuvens na Amazôniadevido às emissões dequeimadas
  47. 47. Supressão de nuvens baixas por aerossóis na AmazôniaCloud fraction as function of aerosol optical depth (OD). The cloud fraction decreases almost linearly with increasing OD. Thered and blue curves denote the average of east and west areas, respectively. On average, the cloud fraction decreases to lessthan 1/8 of the cloud fraction in clean conditions when OD = 1. The shaded area represents the relative area covered by therespective OD, with the integral of this curve equal to one, representing the total Amazon basin. (from Ilan and Kaufman, 2003)
  48. 48. Cloud top pressure (P) vs. AODRelationships between cloud propertiesand aerosol loading in AmazoniaKoren et al., Science 2008Microphysicsabsorption effectsCloud fraction vs. AOD.
  49. 49. Rain rate (TRMM) versus Aerosol Optical Depth (MODIS)13:30 local-time map of rain rate (R) and the observed trend with aerosol loading in four selected regions.Period: July and August 2007. b, The average R values are plotted for six aerosol-loading sets (blue,including zero R grid squares; red, without zero R grid squares). Note the R intensification as a function ofAOD in all cases.
  50. 50. Satyamurty et al., 2010Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008 (18 stations):Decreasing at Pará and Amazon states?AnnualWetDry
  51. 51. Satyamurty et al., 2010Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008:increasing?
  52. 52. Rainfall trends in the Brazilian Amazon 1925-2008: whole regionSatyamurty et al., 2010No biomass burning smoke Heavy biomass burning smokeAnnualWetDry
  53. 53. TemperatureCO2 ConcentrationPhotosynthesis BVOC emissionsAerosol Concentration++++++?-Aerosol effects onthe Net Plant ProductivityKulmala et al., 2004
  54. 54. 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0-30-20-100Wet Season - NEE increase: 24 %NEE(µmolm-2s-1)Relative IrradianceDry Season - NEE increase: 46 %Amazonia Rondonia Forest site 2000-2001Fortes efeitos dos aerossóis na fotossínteseIncrease in aerosol loading
  55. 55. Slide 57
  56. 56. Slide 58Perfis verticais de retroespalhamento atenuado noturnos (em km-1sr-1) obtidos através do satélite CALIPSO mostram o transportede areia do deserto do Saara para a região amazônica. Os eixos de perfil de vertical mostram até 5km de altitude ( Yuval et. al, in press).Transporte de poeira do Saara para a Amazônia durante o experimento AMAZE
  57. 57. Slide 59Range-corrected lidar signalsComplex vertical layering of dustand smoke up to 5.5 km heightwas observed over Praia, CapeVerde, on 3 February 2008. (top).An homogeneous layer wasobserved in Manaus Feb. 10.(bottom)Raman Lidarobservations ofaerosols on CapeVerde and ManausAnsmann et al., GRL 2009
  58. 58. 0100200300400500Al(ng/m3)SFU - Al ConcentrationFine CoarseSahara Dust Transport0200400600800Si(ng/m3)SFU - Si ConcentrationFine Coarse0102030Ti(ng/m3)SFU - Ti ConcentrationFine CoarseAl, Si and Ti elemental Concentration for fine and coarse mode aerosols Feb. to September
  59. 59. Mudanças ambientais na AmazôniaSecas QueimadasDesmatamentoMudanças GlobaisFrequencia de queimadas variavel (Nepstad et al., 2006)Secas podem se tornar mais frequentes(Cox et al., 2008 Nature)Temperaturas aumentaram 0.8 graus (Victoria,2005)18% da área original da floresta foi desmatada
  60. 60. Slide 62LUCCFireClimateChangeClimateExtremesComplex Earth System Models are needed to studyall these interacting and simultaneous driversNobre et al., 2011Effects of climate change inAmazonia
  61. 61. Land Use ChangeLogging/DeforestSecondaryDriversPrimary DriversEnvironmental Drivers of ChangeClimate Change:CO2,temperature,rainfallDroughts Forest FiresForestDegradationTree MortalityEcosystem ResponsesSavannization/forest dieback“Secondarization”Short termLong termWhat are the likely biome changes in Tropical South America dueto a suite of environmental drivers of change?Carlos Nobre, CCST, INPE, 2012
  62. 62. Tropical Ecosystems feedbacks and responses1. How will tropical ecosystemsrespond to increasingtemperatures, increasing CO2concentrations, and alteredrainfall?2. Will climate change increasenatural disturbance events andmortality?3. What are the interactions ofclimate change with aerosol andparticulate emissions from tropicalforests?4. How will forest-climate interactionsrespond to anthropogenicdisturbance and land-use change?
  63. 63. Nepstad et al., PTRSB 2008Cenários de uso da terra na Amazônia em 22 anos…
  64. 64. Anomalias de Precipitação (mm/day)-DJF- [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)]Anomalias de Temperaturas (C) DJF - [(2071-2100)- (1961-90)]SecoSecoSecoSecoA2B2Cenário B2 Cenário A2A2B2B2 A2Quente QuenteJoséMarengo,INPE/CPTEC
  65. 65. Nature, 29 July 2010
  66. 66. Nature, 29 July 2010Brazil is the world’s current largest experiment on landchange and its effects: will it also happen elsewhere?Today’s questions about Brazil could be tomorrow’s questionsfor other countries
  67. 67. Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere:aerosol and ozone production, precursor sensitivity and transportKuhn et al., ACPD 2010
  68. 68. Downwind of Manaus•111 by 60.8 km represented by this box.•Wind speeds at 1 km altitude are typically 10 to 30 kph.•T2→T3 transit time of 2 to 6 hr.
  69. 69. Iranduba site
  70. 70. Interactions of the Manaus plume across 60 kmforest
  71. 71. “ARM Mobile Facility in Amazônia” (AMFA2014/5)January 2014 , T3
  72. 72. 75123MANAUS
  73. 73. Experimentos de grande escala de aerossóis e gases deefeito estufa (SAMBBA), Setembro de 2012Estudo muito completo dadistribuição de gases de efeitoestufa, aerossóis e fluxosradiativos, com medidas in-situ emodelagem detalhada. Parceria:INPE, USP, INPA, UK Met Office.
  74. 74. O sítio experimental do projeto ATTO serácomposto de uma torre muito alta (300 m),ladeada por quatro torres de fluxosmenores. O sítio experimental seráestabelecido perto de Balbina.Torre de300 metros
  75. 75. ATTO FootprintC. Gerbig MPIBGCAmazonian Tall TowerObservatoryATTO – 320 metersLong term broadobjectives observatory
  76. 76. Four flux towers with85 meters already inoperation at the ATTOsiteMeasurements at 6 levels forOzone, CO, VOCs (PTR-MS),aerosol number sizedistribution, composition withACSM, Light scattering (TSINeph), light absorption usingMAAP, Aethalometer, SP2),CO2, CH4, water vapor andothers.
  77. 77. • O IPCC NÃO faz ciência. É somente um compilador de trabalhospublicados na literatura científica...- A confusão sobre o papel do IPCC (quando é positivo, semdestaque; quando é negativo, IPCC errou etc.)• A recorrência ao termo "vilão" do aquecimento e de tudo...• - A confusão na divulgação de dados sobre desmatamento naAmazônia (que aí é problemático por parte dos órgãos depesquisa também);• - "Ceticismo" climático é termo inadequado. Na verdade são“negacionistas”, o que é muito diferente. Há muito espaçodedicado os "céticos“, porque dá IBOPE, em geral sem suportecientífico. Esta postura mais "desinforma" do que informa.Tópicos frequentes na mídia em relação às mudanças globais
  78. 78. “As previsões sobre o aumento do nível do mar --o IPCC (o painel da ONUpara o clima) previa até 59 centímetro em cem anos-- talvez tenham deser revistas, diz ele. Especialmente porque a Groenlândia é uma dasgrandes vilãs da elevação do nível dos mares”.Em 2007, o IPCC tinha causado polêmica ao estimar mais degelo do que o real. Oórgão dizia que o gelo do Himalaia sumiria até 2035 --em 2010, o IPCCvoltou atrás.“O painel decientistaserrou feio”
  79. 79. Obrigado pela atenção!!
  80. 80. Impact of Manaus City on the Amazon Green Ocean atmosphere:ozone production, precursor sensitivity and aerosol loadKuhn et al., ACPD 2010
  81. 81. Obrigado pela atenção !!!
  82. 82. In Amazonia, the linkages are crucialSchematic of land-surface-atmosphereMeteorology, atmospheric chemistry, ecosystem function, radiation, etc. allvery linked (Betts et al. 2011)
  83. 83. Seca de 2005: efeitos não esperados noecossistema amazônicoprecipitation anomaly vegetation “greenness” anomaly
  84. 84. Efeitos no ecossistema dasemissões de queimadas,incluindo material particulado eozônio. Efeito na saude dapopulação das emissões dequeimadas. Tratamento daquestão de poluiçãotransfronteiriça. INCT-MG
  85. 85. Cloud MicrophysicsPRECIPITATIONCCN ActivationCloud/AerosolRadiativeTransferAEROSOLSIce Nuclei ActivationAerosol WetRemovalAerosol-cloud-precipitation feedbacksCloud DynamicsCCN = cloud condensation nuclei and IN = ice nuclei.