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Social Media in 2013 italian Elections
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Social Media in 2013 italian Elections

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On February 2013, over 35 million Italian citizens voted to renew the national Parliament. For the first time in Italian history, Internet played an important and perhaps decisive role as place of …

On February 2013, over 35 million Italian citizens voted to renew the national Parliament. For the first time in Italian history, Internet played an important and perhaps decisive role as place of political debating. In order to investigate the role that social media played in this electoral campaign, we collected social media mentions from Facebook and Twitter of the main political leaders during the month prior the election. This resulted in dataset composed by more than 2 millions Twitter messages and 25 millions Facebook interactions. Starting from critical multi-level approach, present paper will attempt both to deal with complexity of election predictive models based on online data and to highlight main determinants affecting vote and online mention. All these questions will be answered through the use of large-scale longitudinal data.

Published in: Education, Technology, Business

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  • 1. Social Media in the 2013 Italian Election Luca Rossi1, Fabio Giglietto2, Mario Orefice2, Giovanni Boccia Artieri2
  • 2. dataset Data source: www.blogmeter.eu
  • 3. Data construction Every electoral system frame the individual political opinion within a specific structure e.g. parties, coalitions, etc. Social Media Italian Political system Conversation based on an individual level (Politicians) Parties and coalitions are the electoral unit. @silvioberlusconi @beppegrillo CDX @pbersani IBC @angealfano M5S
  • 4. IBC Centrodestra ARANCIONI SCMONTI -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 -0 1 M5S 702 502 302 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 13 13 13 13 13 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 -2 0 102 30 28 26 24 22 20 18 16 14 12 10 801 601 401 201 Polls trend/coalition 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0%
  • 5. 12 3- 01 1- 3 20 51 1- 3 2 7- 01 1- 3 2 9- 01 1- 3 11 20 - 1 13 1/ 20 13 13 / 1/ 20 15 13 / 1/ 20 17 13 / 1/ 20 19 13 / 1/ 20 21 13 / 1/ 20 23 13 / 1/ 20 25 13 / 1/ 20 27 13 / 1/ 20 29 13 / 1/ 20 31 13 /2 2- 01 2- 3 2 4- 01 2- 3 2 6- 01 2- 3 2 8- 01 2- 3 10 20 - 2 13 12 20 -2 13 2/ 20 14 13 / 2/ 20 16 13 / 2/ 20 18 13 / 2/ 20 20 13 / 2/ 20 22 13 / 2/ 20 24 13 /2 01 3 1- 1120 1 31- 3 2 5- 013 12 7- 013 12 9- 013 111 201 3 -1 -2 0 1/ 13 13 / 1/ 201 15 3 / 1/ 201 17 3 / 1/ 201 19 3 / 1/ 201 21 3 /2 0 1/ 23 13 / 1/ 201 25 3 / 1/ 201 27 3 / 1/ 201 29 3 /2 0 1/ 31 13 /2 01 22- 3 20 1 42- 3 20 1 62- 3 20 1 82- 3 20 10 13 -2 12 201 3 -2 2/ 201 14 3 / 2/ 201 16 3 / 2/ 201 18 3 /2 01 2/ 20 3 / 2/ 201 22 3 / 2/ 201 24 3 /2 01 3 Twitter mentions trend 40000 35000 30000 25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 CENTRODESTRA CENTRODESTRA ARANCIONI ARANCIONI IBC IBC M5S M5S FD FD SCMONTI People Talking About on Facebook 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 SCMONTI
  • 6. Errors FB/TW/Polls Single day of Data, Feb. 7th 2013
  • 7. Evolution of the mean average error
  • 8. Political surveys and Facebook PTA
  • 9. Political surveys and Twitter Mentions
  • 10. Media presence: is there a significant correlation between the presence on the (online) media and the electoral results.
  • 11. Mentions trend/coalition -B a UnoMattina -B a Radio2 annuncia lettera per restituzione IMU -Rinvio processo Ruby per legittimo imp. -B su Sanremo “rosso” -Bersani ad Agorà -Bersani su PD/MPS -presentazione della squadra del csx Berlusconi a ServizioPubblico Berlusconi su Mussolini e leggi razziali 80,00% -Patto Monti/Bersani anti-Berlusconi -Videomessaggio di Monti su Fb -Monti a Skytg24 “no a unioni gay” 70,00% -Monti a OttoeMezzo e UnoMattina -Monti svela il logo di “Scelta Civica” 60,00% -Puppato ad Agorà -Renzi/Bersani a Firenze -Scontro Bersani/Grillo -Scontro Bersani/Maroni -Monti apre campagna. “riforme radicali” “via gli incapaci” “voto ad erasmus” 50,00% -IBC in piazza a Milano -Scontro Bersani/Grillo su Casa Pound e reddito citt. -Bersani “smacchiamo il giaguaro” -Tsunamitour a Genova e Savona -Berl su Grillo “pericolo per la democrazia” -Grillo annulla intervista a Sky Proposta shock su IMU 40,00% 30,00% 20,00% 10,00% CENTRODESTRA SCMONTI IBC M5S FD ARANCIONI /1 3 /1 3 /0 2 20 18 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 16 /0 2 /1 3 /0 2 14 /0 2 /1 3 12 10 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 08 /0 2 /1 3 /0 2 06 04 /0 2 /1 3 /1 3 02 /0 2 /1 3 /0 1 31 29 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 27 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 25 /0 1 /1 3 23 21 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 19 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 17 15 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 13 /0 1 /1 3 /0 1 11 /0 1 /1 3 09 07 /0 1 /1 3 /1 3 /0 1 05 /0 1 03 01 /0 1 /1 3 0,00%
  • 12. new spaces for politcal debates avg comments per user zerolikers: users who never “liked” any content published on a specific page but nevertheless commented on that page. likers zerolikers
  • 13. 4 Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola 0 % zerolikers over total users 0.35 avg comments by zerolikers 0 Berlusconi Bersani Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola
  • 14. 0.60 % comments by zerolikers 0 Berlusconi Bersani Giannino Grillo Monti Vendola

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