The GPalmer Forecast

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Demand for temporary workers in the United States is expected to increase 20.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis for the 2010 fourth quarter when compared with the same period in 2009, according to the Palmer Forecast.

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The GPalmer Forecast

  1. 1. CSP OCTOBER 2010 The Palmer Forecast TM 1
  2. 2. If you sometimes feel like this, you are not alone… 2
  3. 3. Recessions and Jobs 3
  4. 4. Temp Help Vs. Recession 4
  5. 5. Temp Help Vs. Non Farm Jobs 5
  6. 6. Accuracy of the Palmer forecast 6 1500 1700 1900 2100 2300 2500 2700 Q1 2008 Q2 2008 Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009 Q4 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 Temporary Employees in Thousands Forecast Actual
  7. 7. Recent Non Farm Trends 7 Robert W. Baird & Co.
  8. 8. All the growth – Health Care /ED/Govt 8 Robert W. Baird & Co.
  9. 9. Temp Vs. Perm Jobs 9 Robert W. Baird & Co.
  10. 10. 10 The Future ?
  11. 11. 11 ?
  12. 12. What will happen in the future? 12 Jobs are Created at 2% GDP Growth
  13. 13. 4% 3% 2% 1% * * * * * * * * 4Q08 -6% Need 2% GDP Growth to create temp jobs ! The Growth Zone
  14. 14. 20% 10% 0% * * * * * * * * 4Q08 -30% GP Temp Growth Forecast 2011 Uneven Growth
  15. 15. Now What? 15
  16. 16. Segment Growth Projections 16 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 Home Health Care Services Computer Systems Colleges, Universities and Professional Schools Limited-Service Eating Places Offices of Physician Local Government Elementary and Secondary Schools General Medical Employment Service Management, Scientific, Technical Consulting BLS
  17. 17. Margins 17 Gross Margins Trend Company 2006 2007 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 2Q10 Adecco SA 17.30% 18.90% 18.10% 19.30% 18.00% 18.20% 18.50% 17.80% 17.80% Manpower Inc. 17.90% 18.80% 18.00% 19.50% 18.10% 20.80% 18.30% 18.30% 17.40% Randstad Holding (1) 19.90% 20.80% 20.50% 20.90% 20.90% 20.70% 20.10% 19.70% 19.0% Kelly Services Inc. 16.30% 17.50% 18.00% 17.70% 17.60% 17.60% 16.80% 16.70% 15.80% Robert Half 42.20% 42.60% 41.70% 42.20% 41.70% 40.70% 35.70% 35.30% 37.70% Spherion 23.30% 23.70% 22.20% 23.10% 21.90% 20.70% 19.50% 20.30% 20.5% MPS Group 27.60% 28.70% 28.60% 29.00% 28.40% 28.60% 26.90% 27.20% N/A True Blue 32.10% 31.90% 30.40% 29.80% 29.70% 29.30% 27.90% 29.50% 26.60% AMN Healthcare Services 26.70% 26.00% 26.40% 26.40% 25.70% 25.70% 25.60% 27.00% 27.60% Kforce 34.70% 35.90% 34.10% 35.80% 34.50% 33.50% 31.20% 34.40% 31.90% Average 25.80% 26.50% 25.80% 26.40% 25.70% 25.60% 24.10% 24.60% 23.8% Source: Staffing Industry Analysts, Inc. and company reports and GPalmer (1)Randstad completed the acquisition of Vedior in May 2008. Randstad's gross profit margin is on a pro forma basis.
  18. 18. Don’t Forget the Workforce ! 18
  19. 19. Unemployment by Education 19 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2007 2008 2009 Umemployment Rate Less than High School College Graduates 17.1% 9.6% 4.5%
  20. 20. Workforce by Age 20 Growth in over 45 yrs Decline in younger workers
  21. 21. A Sprint or Marathon? 21
  22. 22. Gears of Opportunity Clients/Competition /Change Aging workforce Shifts in the Economy
  23. 23. Quick Tips 23  Raise prices in Jan 2010 – SUI and WC will increase  Stay close to Health Care Reform / ASA/CSP  If you are thinking about selling consider an ESOP  Consider Off Shore Recruiting solutions, i.e. PSG www.psgglobalsolutions.com Brian Cotter(310) 566-7436
  24. 24. 24
  25. 25. 25 Thank You! www.GPalmerandAssociates.com 949 232 7101
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