Kerner Slides - DM Event Facebook Valuation

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Kerner Slides - DM Event Facebook Valuation

  1. 1. DeMatteo Monness Event – Valuing facebook Lou Kerner Presentation, March 20 2012
  2. 2. Emergence of The Siloed Internet Started: September 1993 (“Eternal September” –AOL Connected to The Internet) 1995 Amazon Launched Walmart Entered It‟s 50th State 2001 Walmart.com launched Sources: Wikipedia, Walmart
  3. 3. Emergence of The Social Internet
  4. 4. Emergence of The Social Internet Started: September 2006 Facebook Introduced the Newsfeed Massive User Rebellion May 2007 Facebook Opens It‟s API Sources: Wikipedia
  5. 5. Facebook Dominates (Almost) Everywhere Source: ComScore, Jan. 2012
  6. 6. 500% Growth In Japan Since YE2010 Source: Facebook, March 2012
  7. 7. Facebook Tracking to 1 Billion Users Source: iCrossing, Jan. 2012
  8. 8. Facebook Leads In Engagement Too
  9. 9. Facebook is Dominating Time Spent
  10. 10. Zuckerberg‟s Law
  11. 11. The New Media Paradigm
  12. 12. Leading Facebook Brands Source: FanPageList, March 2012
  13. 13. Facebook‟s Frictionless Sharing Introduced at f8 Sept., 2011
  14. 14. Immediate Impact ofFrictionless Sharing on Spotify MAUs
  15. 15. Long Term Impact of Frictionless Sharing on Spotify MAU‟s
  16. 16. OMGPOP‟s Draw Something
  17. 17. Draw Something Highlights Facebook‟s Virality
  18. 18. eCommerce Sites Born of the Siloed Internet Source: Internet Retailer, Top 25 eCommerce Sites, 2011
  19. 19. eCommerce Sites Born Social 30.0% 25.1% 25.0% 23.0% 23.1% 20.9% 20.1%Upstream Traffic Generation 20.0% 18.3% 17.8% 15.0% Google 13.5% Facebook 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Fab.com Threadless Modcloth Etsy Source: Alexa, March 2012
  20. 20. Facebook‟s Slowing Revenue Growth
  21. 21. Daily Active User (DAU) Growth Outpacing Ad Growth
  22. 22. Facebook Q4 „11 CPC Increase Source: Nanigans, January 2012
  23. 23. Social Network Usage Is Increasingly Mobile Source: Pandora S-1, Twitter, Facebook, KPCB
  24. 24. Facebook S-1 Statement“We had more than 425 million MAUs whoused Facebook mobile products inDecember 2011. We currently do not showads or directly generate any meaningfulrevenue from users accessing Facebookthrough our mobile products, but we believethat we may have potential futuremonetization opportunities such as theinclusion of sponsored stories in users‟mobile News Feeds.”
  25. 25. EdgeRank Is Facebook‟s PageRank
  26. 26. Reach Generator Will Be Big
  27. 27. Facebook Forecast
  28. 28. Facebook Valuation
  29. 29. Facebook Risks• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Fscebook log ins could happen on an Android device as soon as 2015• Government intervention around the wrold due to privacy and/or monopoly concerns• Nothing is constant but change
  30. 30. Facebook - Additional Upside
  31. 31. Lou Kerner @loukernerlou@socialinternetfund.com Disclosure: Lou Kerner owns shares of Facebook

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