Facebook S-1 Statement“ We had 488 million MAUs who usedFacebook through mobile products in March2012… We have historically not shown ads tousers accessing Facebook through mobileapps or our mobile website. In March 2012we begun to include sponsored stories… wedo not generate any meaningful revenue fromthe use of Facebook mobile products….”
Largest Brand Owned Audiences Source: FanPageList, May 2012
Facebook Lags In App Adoption Source: comScore, May 2012
Is Facebook’s HTML5 Mobile Strategy Flawed?“… web and HTML5 centric applications aresimply not ready for prime-time…your nearly1B person user base deserves better…incredibly slow loading and latency riddenmobile experience”- Alan Knitowski, CEO of Phunware
The Zuckerberg Factor• Zuckerberg is a visionary – He is on a quest for ubiquity – He is willing to forego short term revenue for enhanced user engagement ...even if that user engagement is not immediately monetizable – Any questions regarding his ability to lead the company are beyond absurd. Reminiscent of people who thought that Jobs wasn’t the right person to run Apple.
Forecasting Facebook• What we know/believe – Slowdown in first quarter revenue growth due (at least) in part to mobile – The history of media is that ad revenue migrates to where people migrate, and ad buyers overspend on properties with scale• What we can’t model – Facebook has basically an unlimited opportunity to create new revenue streams from AppCenter, to Search, to Offers, to Ad Network, to PayPal…..
Facebook Risks• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Facebook log ins on Android devices by 2015• Government intervention around the world due to privacy and/or monopoly concerns• Need for additional, larger acquisitions• Nothing is constant but change – Disruptive mobile technology
Where Will Facebook Trade?• Facebook will be offered at the high end of, or above, the $28-$35 range• While the press is reporting on Wall street’s ebbing interest, Facebook is emerging as a bellwether for growth that must be owned• The world’s never seen a stock with as much global retail interest.• The shares will trade well north of its offering price