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Valuing FacebookLou Kerner, April 3 2012
Emergence of The Siloed       Internet  Started: September 1993   (“Eternal September” –AOL Connected to The Internet)    ...
Emergence of The Social Internet
Emergence of The Social Internet      Started: September 2006  Facebook Introduced the Newsfeed       Massive User Rebelli...
Facebook Dominates (Almost) Everywhere                              Source: ComScore, Jan. 2012
500% Growth In Japan Since YE2010                          Source: Facebook, March 2012
Facebook Tracking to 1 Billion Users                              Source: iCrossing, Jan. 2012
Facebook Leads In Engagement Too
Facebook is Dominating Time Spent                       Source: Citi Investment Research, Nov. 2011
Zuckerberg‟s Law
The New Media Paradigm
Largest Brand Owned Audiences                       Source: FanPageList, April. 2012
Largest Celebrity Owned Audiences                           Source: FanpageList, April 2012
People Rule on The Social Internet                       Facebook Fans16.0           15.014.0                             ...
Facebook‟s Frictionless Sharing  Introduced at f8 Sept., 2011
Immediate Impact ofFrictionless Sharing on Spotify             MAUs
Long Term Impact of Frictionless   Sharing on Spotify MAU‟s
eCommerce Sites Born of the     Siloed Internet              Source: Internet Retailer, Top 25 eCommerce Sites, 2011
eCommerce Sites Born Social    30.0%            28.1%                                                      24.6%    25.0% ...
Facebook‟s Slowing Revenue Growth
Daily Active User (DAU) Growth     Outpacing Ad Growth
Facebook Q4 „11 CPC Increase                     Source: Nanigans, January 2012
Social Network Usage Is  Increasingly Mobile                Source: Pandora S-1, Twitter, Facebook, KPCB
Facebook S-1 Statement“We had more than 425 million MAUs whoused Facebook mobile products inDecember 2011. We currently do...
EdgeRank Is Facebook‟s PageRank
Reach Generator Will Be Big
Facebook Forecast
Facebook Valuation
Facebook Risks• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Fscebook  log ins could happen on an Android devic...
Facebook - Additional Upside
Lou Kerner        @loukerner     (o) 212-833-9926 lou@socialinternetfund.comDisclosure: Lou Kerner owns shares of Facebook...
Lk facebook call 040312
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  • Transcript of "Lk facebook call 040312"

    1. 1. Valuing FacebookLou Kerner, April 3 2012
    2. 2. Emergence of The Siloed Internet Started: September 1993 (“Eternal September” –AOL Connected to The Internet) 1995 Amazon Launched Walmart Entered It‟s 50th State 2001 Walmart.com launched Sources: Wikipedia, Walmart
    3. 3. Emergence of The Social Internet
    4. 4. Emergence of The Social Internet Started: September 2006 Facebook Introduced the Newsfeed Massive User Rebellion May 2007 Facebook Opens It‟s API Sources: Wikipedia
    5. 5. Facebook Dominates (Almost) Everywhere Source: ComScore, Jan. 2012
    6. 6. 500% Growth In Japan Since YE2010 Source: Facebook, March 2012
    7. 7. Facebook Tracking to 1 Billion Users Source: iCrossing, Jan. 2012
    8. 8. Facebook Leads In Engagement Too
    9. 9. Facebook is Dominating Time Spent Source: Citi Investment Research, Nov. 2011
    10. 10. Zuckerberg‟s Law
    11. 11. The New Media Paradigm
    12. 12. Largest Brand Owned Audiences Source: FanPageList, April. 2012
    13. 13. Largest Celebrity Owned Audiences Source: FanpageList, April 2012
    14. 14. People Rule on The Social Internet Facebook Fans16.0 15.014.0 12.512.010.0 8.0 6.0 5.3 4.0 2.0 0.0 Lebron/Dwayne NBA Miami Heat Source: FanpageList, April 2012
    15. 15. Facebook‟s Frictionless Sharing Introduced at f8 Sept., 2011
    16. 16. Immediate Impact ofFrictionless Sharing on Spotify MAUs
    17. 17. Long Term Impact of Frictionless Sharing on Spotify MAU‟s
    18. 18. eCommerce Sites Born of the Siloed Internet Source: Internet Retailer, Top 25 eCommerce Sites, 2011
    19. 19. eCommerce Sites Born Social 30.0% 28.1% 24.6% 25.0% 24.1% 22.4% 20.5%U 20.0%ps 18.5%t 17.4%ream 15.0% FacebookTr 13.3% Googleaffic 10.0% 5.0% 0.0% Fab Threadless ModCloth Etsy Source: Alexa, April 2012
    20. 20. Facebook‟s Slowing Revenue Growth
    21. 21. Daily Active User (DAU) Growth Outpacing Ad Growth
    22. 22. Facebook Q4 „11 CPC Increase Source: Nanigans, January 2012
    23. 23. Social Network Usage Is Increasingly Mobile Source: Pandora S-1, Twitter, Facebook, KPCB
    24. 24. Facebook S-1 Statement“We had more than 425 million MAUs whoused Facebook mobile products inDecember 2011. We currently do not showads or directly generate any meaningfulrevenue from users accessing Facebookthrough our mobile products, but we believethat we may have potential futuremonetization opportunities such as theinclusion of sponsored stories in users‟mobile News Feeds.”
    25. 25. EdgeRank Is Facebook‟s PageRank
    26. 26. Reach Generator Will Be Big
    27. 27. Facebook Forecast
    28. 28. Facebook Valuation
    29. 29. Facebook Risks• Monetization of mobile• Platform risk – the majority of Fscebook log ins could happen on an Android device as soon as 2015• Government intervention around the wrold due to privacy and/or monopoly concerns• Nothing is constant but change
    30. 30. Facebook - Additional Upside
    31. 31. Lou Kerner @loukerner (o) 212-833-9926 lou@socialinternetfund.comDisclosure: Lou Kerner owns shares of Facebook and Klout
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