The future (r)evolution of HE?28th Nov 2012Louis Coiffait, Head of Research@LouisMMCoiffaitThe Pearson Think Tankthepearso...
The future of HE
1. WHO                      ?             More s                    tudent             More o        s,                   ...
Quick introductions                      1
PearsonMore than 45k staff in over 70 countries helping over 100m learners
The world’s leading learning company?
Change at the top   Dame Marjorie Scardino   John Fallon
The Pearson Think Tank                             Independent                             education                      ...
A shifting global context                            2
Recent sustained growth in HE learnersIn 36 countries covered by OECD data there are more than twice asmany 25-34 year old...
Increasingly studying in, not just comingfrom emerging nationsThe % share of graduates by nationality is shifting from Wes...
Future 18-22 year-old population by 2020                                 Source:                                 UN Popula...
Growth in internationally mobile learnersThis growing pie represents a huge opportunity- to help educate the ‘next billion...
Future 18-22 year-old population over time                                Huge falls for China,                           ...
Asia’s changing population pyramid                              1990                                                      ...
Changing market share (%) of foreign HEstudents enrolled, by destination, 2000-2010Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ...
Particularly strong growth in vocationallearner numbers in emerging countriesDifferent types of higher education around th...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                          US     Cost per student                     ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                                  Source:                                  Schleicher ...
Costs and graduation rates over time                      US                               Denmark                        ...
US costs + graduation rates over time                        Natural graduation                        rate limits reached...
Revolution or evolution?                           3
Funding in flux in many nationsHE serves many missions (and masters)Is it losing out to other priorities (e.g. schools, he...
Public funding switching to private sourcesRising demand and restraints on public resourcesEvidence of private (individual...
Growth of private providersUK government looking to ‘level the playing field’ for new entrants,reforming quality assurance...
The English funding experiment (/gamble?)All the dice thrown at once, especially for fundingMost direct funding gone, trip...
Impact of higher fees in EnglandNo conclusive evidence putting applicants off, lower than predictedimpact on overall numbe...
Marketisation and student consumersRise of inter/national competition, sometimes brings a sense of loss thatrequires debat...
HE driving equity, fairness and social mobilityBalancing access and equity…Governments try to make it a core objective for...
Diverse, strategic networks of partners:international, national, regional and localThird mission – community and social en...
Educating the ‘whole’ learnerGlobal growth of more holistic approaches (beyond just knowledge);skills, employability, attr...
Is technology part of the answer…The future looks pretty bright and exciting, here’s a starter for 10:1. MOOCs, democratis...
Is technology part of the answer……or are we just heading into another bubble?Source: GSV Advisors, American Revolution 2.0...
Winning the argument about value(s)Coherent national vision needed for whole sector, in all its diversityPersuade governme...
HE pays – for the individual and for societySource: Schleicher (2012) ibid., public cost and benefits of higher education ...
2009 public spend per student as % of percapita GDPSources: The Learning Curve (2012) Pearson / Economist http://goo.gl/zF...
One of our projects                      4
Blue Skies – new thinking about the future of HEPlatform for debate: short, original articles by global expertsA5 book acc...
Access for all: new evidence onyoung people and the costs of HEOriginal research by The Strategic SocietySupported by the ...
Other research projects by the Pearson Think Tank3) Future Universities              4) Enterprise &Partnership with think...
Comments & questions?                        5
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The future (r)evolution in higher education?

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This is a slowly evolving presentation I'm working on that attempts to explore future trends for higher education. The first half uses secondary data and charts to explore issues such as demography and development. The second half then looks at some responses by the sector with suggestions for considerations in the future. It is based on my experience with the Blue Skies project (http://pearsonblueskies.com/) editing over 60 articles by leading authors from around the world - each sharing their vision of the future for HE. Please get in touch if you'd like to contribute as it is an ongoing project. Comments and shares both appreciated.

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  • If nothing else, remember this picture, it tells you the three key things you need to know about the future of higher education. With one exception, two of the three men should be women.
  • Note the USA, China and the UK
  • Cost rise, graduation rate plateaus
  • Outputs
  • Outputs
  • Outputs
  • The future (r)evolution in higher education?

    1. 1. The future (r)evolution of HE?28th Nov 2012Louis Coiffait, Head of Research@LouisMMCoiffaitThe Pearson Think Tankthepearsonthinktank.com
    2. 2. The future of HE
    3. 3. 1. WHO ? More s tudent More o s, lder, w from and in e orking mergin and pa g natio rt time n studen s ts 2. WHERE? Informally, outside classes, wherever suits More courses with multiple global locations3. HOW?Blended, onlSocially w ine and personali ith others sed servi , virtually ces or in pers on ntry dt heir cou 4. W H Y? for them an ld - values omic benefit, better w or Econ singly f or a ea But incr
    4. 4. Quick introductions 1
    5. 5. PearsonMore than 45k staff in over 70 countries helping over 100m learners
    6. 6. The world’s leading learning company?
    7. 7. Change at the top Dame Marjorie Scardino John Fallon
    8. 8. The Pearson Think Tank Independent education think tank focused on research into education access and quality -
    9. 9. A shifting global context 2
    10. 10. Recent sustained growth in HE learnersIn 36 countries covered by OECD data there are more than twice asmany 25-34 year olds (81m) with degrees than 55-64 year olds (39m) Number of 55-64 year-olds Number of 25-34 year-olds 39m 81mSources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
    11. 11. Increasingly studying in, not just comingfrom emerging nationsThe % share of graduates by nationality is shifting from West to East % share of 55-64 year-olds % share of 25-34 year-oldsSources: Andreas Schleicher (2012) What does the future hold for higher education?, OECD http://goo.gl/sEpa1 based on data fromEducation at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
    12. 12. Future 18-22 year-old population by 2020 Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
    13. 13. Growth in internationally mobile learnersThis growing pie represents a huge opportunity- to help educate the ‘next billion’- to build institutional capacity- to develop ‘world class’ institutionsBut it’s not the answer to all HE’s prayers…Sources: Altbach et al (2009) Trends in Global Higher Education: Tracking an Academic Revolution, UNESCO http://goo.gl/Khw2s;Opening Doors – International mobility (2012) Institute of International Education (IIE) http://goo.gl/ohi19; Theshape of things to come (2012) British Council http://goo.gl/ibeJq, Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
    14. 14. Future 18-22 year-old population over time Huge falls for China, South Korea, Russia and Germany Steady levels for the USA and Brazil Steady growth for India Source: UN Population Division, Oxford Economics (2011)
    15. 15. Asia’s changing population pyramid 1990 2010Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat
    16. 16. Changing market share (%) of foreign HEstudents enrolled, by destination, 2000-2010Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid. Other
    17. 17. Particularly strong growth in vocationallearner numbers in emerging countriesDifferent types of higher education around the world…Source: The Education Advantage (2012) The Research Base http://goo.gl/o7AeS based on US Census Bureau, World Bank and UNESCOdata
    18. 18. Costs and graduation rates over time US Cost per student Graduate supply Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    19. 19. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    20. 20. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    21. 21. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    22. 22. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    23. 23. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    24. 24. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    25. 25. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    26. 26. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    27. 27. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    28. 28. Costs and graduation rates over time Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    29. 29. Costs and graduation rates over time US Denmark United Kingdom Australia New Zealand Finland Iceland Poland Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    30. 30. US costs + graduation rates over time Natural graduation rate limits reached? 40%? 50%? 60%? US Costs to keep on rising? Source: Schleicher and OECD EAG (2012) ibid.
    31. 31. Revolution or evolution? 3
    32. 32. Funding in flux in many nationsHE serves many missions (and masters)Is it losing out to other priorities (e.g. schools, health) in a tougheconomic context? US deficit, UK austerity, Australia mineral wealthalready spent(?)When US HE leaders had to select from 14 ‘key challenges’, 4 moneyissues topped the list;• Potential cuts in federal student aid 83%• Budget shortfalls 70%• Cuts in state spending 67%• Rising tuition fees / affordability 66%Source: Jaschik and Lederman (2012) Survey of College & University Presidents, Inside Higher Ed http://goo.gl/qZuuc
    33. 33. Public funding switching to private sourcesRising demand and restraints on public resourcesEvidence of private (individual benefit)Increasing willingness / ability to payTrend in the USA and (sharply) in the UKSome Indonesian institutions recently quadrupled their fee incomeIn Vietnam many institutions now get <40% of their income from feesSome institutions becoming more entrepreneurial, new funding modelsSource: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank,November 2011, p.18. http://goo.gl/1isug
    34. 34. Growth of private providersUK government looking to ‘level the playing field’ for new entrants,reforming quality assurance measures and Degree Awarding Powers,hoping to drive efficiency in the marketIn Indonesia, Japan, Malaysia, Korea, and the Philippines, privateuniversities now enrol the majority of studentsSource: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank,November 2011, p.19. http://goo.gl/1isug
    35. 35. The English funding experiment (/gamble?)All the dice thrown at once, especially for fundingMost direct funding gone, tripled tuition fees1998 <£1k2004 <£3k2012 <£9kAverage 2013/14 fee £8,507£7,898 with support (good luck making sense of all that…)Some say average UK undergraduate debt now highest in the worldCloser to what international students paySources: Tuition fee hike will make English degrees most expensive in the world‘ (2011) Telegraph http://goo.gl/Gpv3f
    36. 36. Impact of higher fees in EnglandNo conclusive evidence putting applicants off, lower than predictedimpact on overall numbers (-10%) and disadvantaged learners (-1%)But apparently bigger impact on mature learners (e.g. –12% for 19-25year olds) and part-time learners – questions ability of ageing economyto ‘re-skill’?Some studies unclear if it will save the Treasury much, if anything inthe long runToo early to judge…Sources: Thompson J. and Bekhradnia B. (2012) The cost of the government’s reforms of the financing of higher education, HigherEducation Policy Institute (HEPI) Report 58, Oxford p.11 http://goo.gl/30L2v; Thompson J. and Bekhradnia B. (2012) The impact ondemand in 2012 of the Government’s reforms of HE, Higher Education Policy Institute (HEPI) Report 59, Oxford http://goo.gl/7204F
    37. 37. Marketisation and student consumersRise of inter/national competition, sometimes brings a sense of loss thatrequires debate (e.g in the UK see the Campaign for a Public Universityand the Council for the Defence of British Universities)More information (e.g. Key Information Set [KIS] in UK, MyUniversityin Australia) and choice… but who is equipped to choose? And whatabout more complex outcomes such as competencies or values?Sector responses; external re-grouping, internal reconfiguring,strategic partnerships, shared services, specialisation, spin-offs,internationalisation, inter-disciplinary teams, entrepreneurship,incubators, proving impact, ‘squeezed middle’ institutions in the UKWill HE come out stronger and more competitive? Nobody knows yet…
    38. 38. HE driving equity, fairness and social mobilityBalancing access and equity…Governments try to make it a core objective for institutions (e.g.Australia and UK) but more could be done (both central funding andinstitutional prioritising)New UK access agreements (with fines), postgrads the ‘next’ frontierChanges to admissions policies e.g. China moving away from singleexam rounds, (contested) use of contextual data in the UKSources: Asian Development Bank, Higher Education Across Asia: An Overview of Issues and Strategies, Asian Development Bank,November 2011, pp.26-27. http://goo.gl/1isug , Postgraduate education (2012) Higher Education Commission http://goo.gl/Mr8Pl
    39. 39. Diverse, strategic networks of partners:international, national, regional and localThird mission – community and social engagementPartner schools and collegesEmployersSuppliersStrategic partners – first Google or Apple course/university?Voluntary orgs / charities – first Amnesty Intl. or Oxfam course/uni?More institutional collaboration (or competition)?
    40. 40. Educating the ‘whole’ learnerGlobal growth of more holistic approaches (beyond just knowledge);skills, employability, attributes, 21st Century skills, critical thinking,problem solving, communication, team work, E.Q., digital skills…But also beyond just competencies; (social) innovation, (social)enterprise, sustainability, global citizenship, extra-curricular activities,volunteering, service-learning, creativity etc… teaching values?Young people increasingly expect learning that creates ‘flourishing’communities, beyond employment or average salariesBut challenging with low growth and high graduate unemploymentSources: Ananiadou, K. and M. Claro, 21st Century Skills and Competences for New Millennium Learners in OECD Countries, OECDEducation Working Papers, No. 41, OECD Publishing, 2009, p.5. http://goo.gl/vLFTF , FutureTrack (2012) HECSU http://goo.gl/owidY
    41. 41. Is technology part of the answer…The future looks pretty bright and exciting, here’s a starter for 10:1. MOOCs, democratising revolution or marketing for known brands?2. Blended learning offering seamless face-to-face/online experiences3. Tablet and mobile pedagogy as developing areas of practice4. A flourishing learning applications (apps) market of proven impact5. Social learning more common with teaching and learning in teams6. Virtual learning simulations bringing ever-more realistic activities7. Game-based learning that is engaging, social and technical8. Gesture-based learning that is intuitive and interactive9. The internet of things with learning data gathered all around us10.Smarter data use: instant, open, actionable and invisible
    42. 42. Is technology part of the answer……or are we just heading into another bubble?Source: GSV Advisors, American Revolution 2.0, p.311 http://goo.gl/1ZdOq
    43. 43. Winning the argument about value(s)Coherent national vision needed for whole sector, in all its diversityPersuade government of value over other priorities (budgets, elections)Persuade the public of the benefits of HE (‘consumers’, voters)Persuade employers and other partners to engageReshape itself to respond and leadA new narrative for HE: the long-term engine of growth, powerful in itsdiversity and dynamism, key to improving our future society (e.g.non-financial benefits, wellbeing, sustainability and above all values)A revolution is required (especially in equity, technology and socialengagement)… but funding constraints and a lack of coherent strategyrisks making evolution more likely
    44. 44. HE pays – for the individual and for societySource: Schleicher (2012) ibid., public cost and benefits of higher education for a man obtaining tertiary education (2008 or latestavailable year) in USD equivalent based on data from Education at a glance (2012) OECD, http://goo.gl/u9LbT
    45. 45. 2009 public spend per student as % of percapita GDPSources: The Learning Curve (2012) Pearson / Economist http://goo.gl/zFcRP - main data source UNESCO Institute for Statistics (UIS)
    46. 46. One of our projects 4
    47. 47. Blue Skies – new thinking about the future of HEPlatform for debate: short, original articles by global expertsA5 book accompanied by http://pearsonblueskies.comEditions: UK (2011, 2012), Spanish (2011), Asia-Pacific (2012) so far…60+ articles and counting, all content available for free Willetts, 2011 launch Free A5 books available for each editionVisit the site for PDFs, videosand to share your views Willetts, 2012 launch
    48. 48. Access for all: new evidence onyoung people and the costs of HEOriginal research by The Strategic SocietySupported by the Pearson Think Tank and Universities UKExploring the impact of tuition fees on applications, due Spring 2013http://thepearsonthinktank.com/research/value-for-money-in-higher-education/
    49. 49. Other research projects by the Pearson Think Tank3) Future Universities 4) Enterprise &Partnership with think tank Demos entrepreneurshiphttp://thepearsonthinktank.com education/research/future-universities/ 5) Open Education Data 6) Careers 2020 7) Academies Commission•• With more to follow…• - Are these the right topics?• ○ - What issues matter to you?
    50. 50. Comments & questions? 5
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