Sustainable Suburbs: From Drivable Suburbanism to Walkable Urbanism

Sustainable Suburbs From Drivable Suburbanism to Walkable Urbanism Jim Houk, ASLA, AICP February 3, 2010

Agenda • How did we get here: Town Planning 101 • Trends: Where do we go from here? • “Back to the Future” • Best Practices • What Can We Do? • Questions Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 2

HOW DID WE GET INTO THIS MESS? Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 3

Town Planning 101 Farm City, c. 1800 The American Dream: “40 acres and a mule.” Historical City mid 1800’s Radiant City; Le Corbusier, 1922 Garden City; Ebenezer Howard, 1902 Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 4

How We Got Here • 1939 World’s Fair “Futurama” The wondrous world of 1960 The “new American Dream” Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 5

Levittown, 1948 The First Mall: Southdale, Minnesota, 1956 Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 6

Industrial Economy • 1970: 30-40% off all jobs in the U.S. were associated with building the car or things associated with the car Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 7

Suburban Sprawl? Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 8

• 30% of all developed land in the U.S. was developed between 1982 and 2001 Population vs. Urban land Growth 60 50 40 Urbanized % Increase 30 Land Increase Population 20 Increase 10 0 West South NE MW Region Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 9

• Since 1950, U.S. cities consume gasoline at a rate per capita of 2-1/2 times European and Asian cities Gigajoules of gasoline used per capita, 1990 60 55.8 50 40 33.6 U.S Cities 30.9 Australian Cities 30 Canadian Cities European Cities 20 14.2 Asian Cities 10 6.3 0 Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 10

Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 11

• 40% – 60% of Obesity is caused by a lack of walkability in communities Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 14

U.S. and Ohio Population Trends • The U.S. Population will increase by 50% between the years 2000 and 2050 • Between now and 2030, over 570,000 new residents will join the Columbus metro area • Over 110,000 current housing units will need to be replaced • We will also be creating a new phenomena: suburban S.F. slums with homes <5 years old, Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 15

Where Do We Go From Here? 35 -40 % of all suburban s.f. mort Is it time for a new way of thinking?

Overcoming The Fear Of Change The problems we have created cannot be solved with the same thinking that created them… Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 17

Thinking Differently Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 18

Thinking Differently “…the possible benefits of required seatbelts would not justify the costs to the manufacturers and the public.” National Highway Traffic Safety Administration 1970 Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 19

Changes in People • The most significant trend in the US is the growing amount of the national population that is 65 years or older. • 2000 Census Data: 12% of population is 65 or older • By 2030: To be more than 20% (71.4 million Americans) • This affects everything! • Uses of space • Distribution of wealth • Transportation (drive fewer miles, public transportation…) • Public services • Dependency on public programs Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 20

Baby Boomers • Born 1946-1964, 28% of the population • Mostly in the suburbs • Highest Median Incomes • Excessive spending on themselves rather than future generations • Becoming empty nesters • Age Denial • Looking for changes in housing needs • 1 to 2 person households Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 21

Generation X’ers • Born 1965-1976, “baby bust”, 48 million • Reject status and social climbing • Consumer and media savvy • Credited with revitalizing downtown areas • This is the first generation to abandon suburban living and return to the cities. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 22

Generation Y – The Millennials • Born 1977-1990 to 2000; 70 million • Simpler Living • Looking for rental in urban environment • Not tied to jobs - Flexible • Want good design • Higher Percentage of 1 to 2 people households • More focused on health and environment Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 23

CONCLUSIONS? • 50% of Households in 1950s w/ children • 30% of Households w/ children today,67% without • ONLY 14% of new households over next 20 years will have children; 86% without • What product are we building? • Will it be what the market wants? The market wants more options. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 24

Survey Says… • Common Ground • trend away from “drivable suburbanism” to “walkable urbanism” • More densely developed areas are ‘desirable’… • Consists of shops, offices, services, housing units all mixed together (Mixed-Use) • Walkability is strongly associated with higher housing values in nearly all (US) metropolitan areas • Focus on Entertainment • Parks, public space are very important • Focus recreation and exercise… • Cool places to live and work Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 25

Change in Business • The good news… • Ohio Growth Sectors over the last 10 years are: • Entertainment • Dining and lodging • Health care and social assistance • Services – professional, technical, other… • The bad news… Central Ohio has lost 17% of all retail jobs since 2001… Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 26

Change in Business • Other trend tidbits affecting the ‘biz- world’… • 80% of all companies are smaller than 20 people • Office condominiums gaining popularity • Efficient and integrated uses of buildings and land • Walkable environment • Flexible space • Technology based • Cool space Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 27

Changes in Education • Our Third Wave: ‘The Knowledge Economy’ • Over one billion users of the internet with a growth rate of 15% per MONTH… • 60% of the school age kids will be working in future jobs yet to be created • Focusing on creative workers and leaders • Successful communities will be those that place a premium on cultural, ethnic, and artistic creativity Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 28

Changes in Shopping • Retail sales have grown only four percent in the past 10 years (down over 50% over the last year) • Internet sales have grown by 20 percent • Consolidation among department stores (downsizing and advertising to a larger regional radius) • Many “big box” developments have closed • The pool of retail tenants who might anchor new malls has reduced by 50% • Targeted selling on narrowly defined segmented of the population Ethnic Age Social goals (‘made from recycled materials’) Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 29

Changes in Shopping The Town Center Experience The Mall • Lifestyle retailing or “Lifestyle Centers” Shopping/Entertainment Enhanced pedestrian amenities Landscaping Outdoor dining Quality Architecture/Scale Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 30

Market Opportunities • Trending toward job and housing cluster in Town Center districts to take advantage of infrastructure (…utility, roads, etc.) • To create ‘urban’ walkable places (parks and public space as the spine that connects everything to everything else) • Opportunity for entertainment, cultural and recreational activity, people crave social interaction… • Retail/Office focuses on “Town Center” atmosphere (begins to feed itself) • Attract small merchants that focus on providing ‘personal-touch’ service and atmosphere that is unique • THE MARKET WANTS MORE OPTIONS! Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 31

Where do we go from here? RETAIL + OFFICE + RESIDENTIAL + PUBLIC SPACE = MIXED-USE Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 32

Future Office Development Trends • The best and the brightest thrive in lively, mixed-use settings (attracts the best and brightest talent) • Latest technology trumps biggest office in brave new corporate world • Savvy employers offer flexibility to boost work productivity • Medical office segments shines as boomers age • Communities strategically deploy resources to attract targeted industry clusters (incentives) • Cities chase economic development ever more vigorously (direct competition with other surrounding communities) Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 33

Future Retail Development Trends • Retail vacancies in Ohio remain above national average • The Fall of the Mall • Developers look past demographics to tap into “lifestyles” • “Mixed-Use” is now first choice instead of fallback option • Retail economy shifts toward service industry • Communities throughout state revitalize downtowns to preserve their history, culture, sense of place… through retail… (incomplete answer) Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 34

Future Housing Trends • Problems in suburban single family sector impact overall housing industry in Ohio • 40% of suburban Single-Family mortgages will be upside-down in the next year • Suburban sprawl threatens Ohio’s way of life • Homes within walkable distance to mixed-use urban areas will maintain the highest value • Multifamily / Rental craze sweeps urban areas, including downtowns • Boomers become (gasp!) seniors • What women really want… • Today’s renters are tomorrow’s owners • “Gray” Power • Diversity is community’s middle name • Public policy leverages private investments in housing stock Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 35

Best Practices In Suburbia

Best Practices In Suburbia • “Redevelopment of Core Town Centers • Suburban Mall / Big Box Redevelopment • Greenfield Development Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 37

Suburban Core Redevelopment Gahanna Creekside, Gahanna, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 38

Suburban Core Redevelopment Gahanna Creekside, Gahanna, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 39

Suburban Core Development Gahanna Vision Plan, Gahanna, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 40

Suburban Core Redevelopment Bridge and High Streets, Dublin, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 41

Suburban Mall Redevelopment Mizner Park, Boca Raton, FL Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 42

Suburban Redevelopment Mizner Park, Boca Raton, FL Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 43

Suburban Mall Redevelopment Northland Mall, Columbus, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 44

Suburban Mall Redevelopment Salem Mall, Trotwood, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 45

Greenfield Development Easton Town Center, Columbus, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 46

Greenfield Development Saxony, Fishers, IN Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 47

Greenfield Development Jerome Village, Union County, OH Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 48

So how do we create “sustainable suburbs” ? Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 49

Sustainable Suburbs… …Accommodate all Users and Citizens and Attract the Best Talent. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 50

Sustainable Suburbs Have… … A Mix of Uses : Live, Work, and Play. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 51

Sustainable Suburbs Have… …A Mix of Residential Densities & Economic Price Points. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 52

Sustainable Suburbs… …Promote Higher density in Special Districts. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 53

Sustainable Suburbs… …Create great public spaces and event to connect their citizens. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 54

Sustainable Suburbs Have… …Multi‐Modal Networks and well designed transportation systems. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 55

Sustainable Suburbs Contain… …Active, Healthy Connective Systems. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 56

Sustainable Suburbs Promote… …Green Initiatives in our Public Spaces and in our Industries. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 57

Sustainable Suburbs… …Plan and Vision their future. Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 58

People / Planet Lifestyle Suburban Sustainability Economy / Prosperity Sustainable Suburbs: 02.03.2010 59

Sustainable Suburbs: From Drivable Suburbanism to Walkable Urbanism

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