Wolf and Woolf 2006 paper discussion

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Presentation by Irma Caraballo Alvarez

Presentation by Irma Caraballo Alvarez

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  • 1. Waves and Climate Change in the North-East Atlantic by Judith Wolf and David K. Woolf Presented by: Irma Caraballo Álvarez October 4, 2012
  • 2. Outline Introduction Wave models Results Discussion
  • 3. Introduction Wave height increase  Last 25 years  Up to 14m in January 1993  Observed by  Buoys  Ships  Satellite altimetry  TOPEX/Poseidon
  • 4. Introduction North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)  Icelandic Low  Azores High +NAO  Stronger westerlies
  • 5. IntroductionFigure 1. NAO from NOAA (http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2011/03/ao-nao2_pos_vs_neg.jpg).
  • 6. Introduction Possible reasons  Increase in winds  Increase in storminess Storminess variations in decadal scales
  • 7. Wave Models Usefulness  Interpret data  Study impacts of climate change  Investigate physical explanations  Extrapolate the model
  • 8. Wave ModelsFigure 2. Mean atmospheric conditions for January 1993. Coloured shading/contours is wind speedin m/s, arrows indicate direction of flow.
  • 9. Wave Models Data  ECMWF ERA-40 re-analysis model, January 1993  NCEP/NCAR re-analysis model Validation  TOPEX/Poseidon  Buoys
  • 10. Wave Models Variables  Strength of the westerlies  Frequency of storms  Intensity of storms  Strom tracks  Storm translation speeds
  • 11. Wave ModelsFigure 3. Idealized storm with maximum wind speed 10m/s.
  • 12. Wave ModelsTable 1. Features of the Storm Varied in the Experimentsa. Feature Low Medium HighFrequency (month -1) 3 6 9Intensity (m s-1) 10 15 20Relative Strength 0.5 1 1.5Direction ENE NE NNESpeed (km h-1) 25 50 100aValues in bold are the "standard" case.
  • 13. Results Storm frequency Storm intensity Relative strength of westerlies Storm track Storm translation speedFigure 4. Effects of the variables on wave height.Red crosses = monthly maximum, blue squares = monthly mean.
  • 14. Discussion Is it possible to predict storms using this model? Can the model be used in other regions? Is NAO and storm frequency related to global warming?
  • 15. The End