Keyla Soto HidalgoCoastal Environment   Prof. Roberson
   Propose of the study   Description of the ocean’s warming signal   Climate models:    ◦ Parallel Climate Model (PCM)...
   Investigate the warming since 1960 on an    ocean-by-ocean basis and focus on how the    signal penetrates down into t...
Purpose is to understand the origin of  this complex time- and space-dependent signal.They explore three possible causes:...
   Wide-ranging evidence shows that Earth has    been warming in recent decades.   84% of the total heating of the Earth...
   They investigate the warming since 1960 on    an ocean-by-ocean basis and focus on how    the signal penetrates down i...
   They first define a model-based “fingerprint”    describing the warming signal at each vertical    level using the geo...
   Warming signal strength by ocean and depth. The dots    represent the projection of the observed temperature    change...
   An ocean-by-ocean and depth-by-depth    comparison shows that the agreement is    compelling.   Human influences are ...
   The deep convection is characteristic of both    the North and South Atlantic oceans.   The northern Pacific Ocean is...
   the influence of the upgraded data set   sampling   model uncertainties
   G. A. Meehl et al. 2004. Combinations of    natural and anthropogenic forcings in    twentieth-century climate. J. Cli...
How to respond to the serious problems posed by               these predictions?
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006
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Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006

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Presented by Keyla Soto:

Penetration of Human-Induced Warming into the World’s Oceans

Tim P. Barnett, David W. Pierce, Krishna M. AchutaRao, Peter J. Gleckler, Benjamin D. Santer, Jonathan M. Gregory, Warren M. Washington

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Discussion of Barnett et al. 2006

  1. 1. Keyla Soto HidalgoCoastal Environment Prof. Roberson
  2. 2.  Propose of the study Description of the ocean’s warming signal Climate models: ◦ Parallel Climate Model (PCM) ◦ Hadley Centre model (HadCM3) Statistical Analysis Conclusion Suggestions
  3. 3.  Investigate the warming since 1960 on an ocean-by-ocean basis and focus on how the signal penetrates down into the ocean. We use a recently upgraded and much expanded observed ocean data set, which provides the best available description of the ocean’s warming signal and its evolution through time.
  4. 4. Purpose is to understand the origin of this complex time- and space-dependent signal.They explore three possible causes: natural variability internal to the coupled ocean atmosphere system; external natural variability, such as solar or volcanic forcing; forcing arising from human activity emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and sulfate aerosols.
  5. 5.  Wide-ranging evidence shows that Earth has been warming in recent decades. 84% of the total heating of the Earth system (oceans, atmosphere, continents, and cryosphere) over the last 40 years has gone into warming the oceans. The studies all suggest human impacts on the oceans, but some did not consider the possibility that the observed warming was due to natural external forcing such as solar variability or volcanic activity.
  6. 6.  They investigate the warming since 1960 on an ocean-by-ocean basis and focus on how the signal penetrates down into the ocean. They use a recently upgraded and much expanded observed ocean data set, which provides the best available description of the ocean’s warming signal and its evolution through time.
  7. 7.  They first define a model-based “fingerprint” describing the warming signal at each vertical level using the geographical and temporal variability of ocean temperature. The warming extends to depths of 700 m or more in both the North and South Atlantic oceans, but is largely confined to the upper 100 m of the northern Pacific and northern Indian oceans.
  8. 8.  Warming signal strength by ocean and depth. The dots represent the projection of the observed temperature changes onto the model-based pattern of warming.
  9. 9.  An ocean-by-ocean and depth-by-depth comparison shows that the agreement is compelling. Human influences are largely responsible for the warming signal. Ocean warming is due to human influences is robust to major perturbations of both the observed data set and model error.
  10. 10.  The deep convection is characteristic of both the North and South Atlantic oceans. The northern Pacific Ocean is characterized by a rather shallow meridional overturning circulation that tends to isolate the surface layers from the deeper ocean.
  11. 11.  the influence of the upgraded data set sampling model uncertainties
  12. 12.  G. A. Meehl et al. 2004. Combinations of natural and anthropogenic forcings in twentieth-century climate. J. Climate, 17: 3721–3727.
  13. 13. How to respond to the serious problems posed by these predictions?

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