Making Value Migrate Your Way | 2014 Global Leadership Summit


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Michael Jacobides, Associate Professor of Strategy and Entrepreneurship, talked about the changing dynamic of value creation, during the Big Ideas session at London Business School's flagship event, the Global Leadership Summit.

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Making Value Migrate Your Way | 2014 Global Leadership Summit

  1. 1. Making value migrate your way Global Leadership Summit Insight Session London, June 24, 2014 Michael G. Jacobides
  2. 2. © Michael G. Jacobides The changing dynamics of value creation and capture: We don’t just compete in a sector. We compete for a sector • Sectors dis-integrate, split off, re-integrate, split off again • From Financial Services to Cars to Pharma to Computers • New players invade from different sectors or countries • With new ways of making money, changing the landscape • Rules of the game change, leading to massive value migration • Competition is no longer within a sector, it is to shape a sector
  3. 3. © Prof. Michael G. Jacobides Look at the hot companies of today… & …and the reactions of concerned incumbents…. & © Michael G. Jacobides
  4. 4. © Prof. Michael G. Jacobides Tracking value creation and value migration © Michael G. Jacobides
  5. 5. Trie ste Clev erne © Prof. Michael G. Jacobides, 2007© Michael G. Jacobides
  6. 6. Trie ste Clev erne © Prof. Michael G. Jacobides, 2007© Michael G. Jacobides
  7. 7. A few things to remember: It doesn’t matter how good you are. It matters what you do • Firms often too focused on own segment and competitors • Need to figure out how the world around you changes • Value shift around the value chain, not just between offerings • And firms strategically shape their industry architecture & playscripts • The way you create and capture value changes over time • Your strategy from yesterday doesn’t make sense today © Michael G. Jacobides
  8. 8. Learning from disruption that didn’t happen in cars: Outsourcing without value migration, despite the hype • “The dawn of the mega-supplier” – new giant suppliers will quickly move to “designing vehicle systems that can be ‘standardized’ within and across OEMs – in other words, used in multiple models of an OEM and eventually by multiple OEMs.” (Bain and Company, 1997) • “Chrysler has played the role of the Compaq of the auto industry. Just as Compaq helped to drive the entire computer industry to a horizontal/modular structure, Chrysler’s strategy allows suppliers – even Ford’s and GM’s internal suppliers – to strengthen their capability to develop whole automotive subsystems, thereby pushing the entire structure of the industry from vertical toward horizontal.” (Fine, 1998: 62) © Michael G. Jacobides
  9. 9. ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited Key Points • Shift in profit allocation from assembly to information technology and components • New “players“ from different industries such as energy, IT and electronics • Change from one-to-one towards multi-multi structure • Lower entry barriers With the transformation to e-mobility there will be a significant change in the value chain of the automotive industry Initiated by automaker integration Affiliated Supplier Affiliated Importer / Dealer Automaker A Affiliated Supplier Affiliated Importer / Dealer Automaker B Affiliated Supplier Affiliated Importer / Dealer Automaker C Initiated by various players’ specialization Sales Manufacturing PartsAssembly R&D Automaker A Automaker B Automaker C Independent Research Companies (e.g. Engineering Companies Independent Suppliers (e.g. Battery, Motor, Inverter suppliers) Independent Multi-brand Dealers Value Chains Conventional Vehicle EV
  10. 10. ©2010 Deloitte Turkey. Member of Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu Limited With “modularization-” and “plug-and-play-” concepts the role and power of suppliers in the industry will significantly shift • Definition of global standards enable “Modularization” • Connectivity without calibration - “Plug-and-Play” 1. Supply to two or more automakers 2. Achieve economies of scale (similar to semiconductor industry) 3. Mega-suppliers would become profitable, while automakers producing relatively small volumes of EVs would be less so Battery Motor InverterCPU HDD Graphic s
  11. 11. Lis bo n © Mi © Michael G. Jacobides
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  14. 14. What explains when sectors transform and value migrates? • Principles that explain the dynamics of value migration • …but also account for value sticking around! • Study sectors that shifted, and sectors that managed not to • Continuous struggle under the surface – what determines who wins? • Consider the forces that explain stasis, change, and disruption • And provide advice on how to adapt your strategy • Replaceability and mobility. Let’s see how these work for wine & coffee © Michael G. Jacobides
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  21. 21. Computers, Cars, and certification • In computers, IBM unwittingly “standardized itself out” of success • Creating a more open value chain, allowing its value-add to diminish • “Intel Inside” campaign, though accidental, shifted fortunes • And work with Microsoft. As for HDD… Forget it! • In cars, OEMs fought hard the battle of branding the experience • Components invisible, through strategic action • (Though car makers were lucky and started from a stronger place) © Michael G. Jacobides
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  24. 24. Cars vs computers: Industry structure & replaceability © Michael G. Jacobides Automobiles: Hierarchical Structure Computers: A set of verticals
  25. 25. © Michael G. Jacobides Are (electric) cars becoming computer-like? Apple, Inc
  26. 26. So rather than cars becoming computers, computers are becoming cars. Witness Apple…. Our interviews with a number of Apple’s suppliers suggest that Apple ‘atomizes’ its supply chain to an unprecedented degree, breaking up component processing steps across multiple vendors. This aids in preserving product secrecy – since even the suppliers themselves often do not know how Apple will ultimately use a component – and gives Apple inordinate control over the manufacturing process, as if Apple were vertically integrated and owned the factors of production. (Sanford Bernstein Research, March 2012) © Michael G. Jacobides
  27. 27. Apple and the architecture of its ecosystem • A “band of control” around the user • = iPhone by Apple • Large integral “core” • Little use of Open Source • Proprietary formats for complementors © Michael G. Jacobides
  28. 28. …and the counter-attack from Google: a different architecture • Open source everywhere • Complementors design and make handsets • Search engine replaces Store • = Android by Google © Michael G. Jacobides
  29. 29. Back to differentiability & mobility: Google, Android & Samsung © Michael G. Jacobides
  30. 30. What I want you to remember: Differentiability and replaceability rule value migration • The more differentiable you are, the better for you (& friends) • Don’t think narrowly about yourselves, but broadly about the segment • The more replaceable others become, the more you keep value • Fight with standards, with practices, with clever positioning • Some settings change easily, others manage to fight back • Question of luck, question of positioning, question of perspective © Michael G. Jacobides
  31. 31. What does this mean for incumbents or challengers? Jacobides & Macduffie, HBR, summer 2013, How to Bring Value your Way © Michael G. Jacobides
  32. 32. What else happens as sectors shift? • Market cap jitters, even as OCF slowly moves along • There’s froth, and there’s scope to educate or fool the market • Changes from new players do affect expectations and pricing • Even w small share, established business model is challenged • Firms face a new set of strategic dilemmas • The “equity vs dividend” dilemma, and the burden of scope © Michael G. Jacobides
  33. 33. Why unbundling can have profound effects: Uncovering multi-speed sectors with uni-speed incumbents © Michael G. Jacobides Transportation/infrastructure Devices Apps, content, access • Need for CapEx & planning • Fixed income, not equity • Local, not global • User, not driver • EBITDA will decline • Huge change velocity • Skewed, variable • Fully global • Platform wars • Convergence threat • Highest change • Ecosystem changes • Mostly global • Platform wars • Control wars
  34. 34. What’s the problem of existing firms? • Faced with an innovation, they freeze • Faced with headcount / budget reduction, they turn inside • Faced with a new model, they want to copy it • Which, as airlines learnt, may be a very silly idea • As the world changes, they cant adjust their habits • Integrated mentality, rigidity: organizational pathologies © Michael G. Jacobides
  35. 35. Success stories If you want to innovate… study what works & what doesn’t Failures © Michael G. Jacobides
  36. 36. © Prof. Michael G. Jacobides What separates the wheat from chaff? • Supply-side mentality, forgetting about the customer’s choices • What do your customers want and where will they source it? • Self-absorbed vertically integrated focus • Doing it all inside or wanting to acquire anything that shines • Allowing its (understandable) organizational issues to take over • In times of hardship, we focus inside; org design & governance rule • Which is why entrepreneurs are finding it easier to succeed • Though they, too, require a good map of value migration & capture © Michael G. Jacobides
  37. 37. What should we do as value migrates? • Have a clear map of our sector and its business models • Defend our position, but start by adding more value than others • Replaceability, differentiability, growth… judo tactics • See what changes are best suited to our organization • Don’t just react: take a bold position, re-think your model • Value from reshaping sector or re-thinking your business (FI vs EQ) • Help re-wire your organizations’ DNA • Manage in the new ecosystem, align your responses • Articulate a vision, change your habits © Michael G. Jacobides
  38. 38. What an Australian Jewel Beetle can teach us Julodimorpha bakewelli © Michael G. Jacobides